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Post by batman on Dec 8, 2005 20:17:11 GMT -5
Nebraska vs UCLA....... NEBRASKA
Florida vs Louisville..... FLORIDA
Santa Clara vs Pepperdine....... SANTA CLARA
Ohio vs Arizona..........ARIZONA
Washington vs Purdue.......WASHINGTON
Wisconsin vs Notre Dame.........WISCONSIN
Hawaii vs Missouri....... HAWAII
Penn St. vs Tennessee........PENN ST.
Anyone think otherwise.. do you see any upsets tomorrow...
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Dec 8, 2005 20:36:03 GMT -5
With 8 matches, all reasonably close, it would silly to not expect 1 or even 2 upsets.
FWIW, here's Pablo's take on the matter:
UCLA at Nebraska: UNL 93.5%
Florida vs Louisville: Florida 80%
SC/Pepperdine: Santa Clara 61%
Ohio/Arizona: Arizona 68%
Washington/Purdue: Washington 98%
Wisconsin/Notre Dame: 69%
Hawaii/Missouri: Missouri 64%
Penn St/Tennessee: Penn St 99%
The probability that at least one is an upset is 87%. You have Hawaii over Missouri, which would be an upset by Pablo. However, other close matches include Santa Clara/Pepperdine, Ohio/Arizona, and Wisconsin/ND. There is actually a 1% chance that all four will turn out as upsets. Not likely, but two upsets in these four matches would not be shocking in the least.
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Post by pineapple on Dec 8, 2005 21:49:16 GMT -5
With 8 matches, all reasonably close, it would silly to not expect 1 or even 2 upsets. FWIW, here's Pablo's take on the matter: UCLA at Nebraska: UNL 93.5% Florida vs Louisville: Florida 80% SC/Pepperdine: Santa Clara 61% Ohio/Arizona: Arizona 68% Washington/Purdue: Washington 98% Wisconsin/Notre Dame: 69% Hawaii/Missouri: Missouri 64% Penn St/Tennessee: Penn St 99% The probability that at least one is an upset is 87%. You have Hawaii over Missouri, which would be an upset by Pablo. Hawaii over Missouri will make pablo upset all right.  |
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Dec 10, 2005 0:53:21 GMT -5
FWIW, here's Pablo's take on the matter: UCLA at Nebraska: UNL 93.5% Florida vs Louisville: Florida 80% SC/Pepperdine: Santa Clara 61% Ohio/Arizona: Arizona 68% Washington/Purdue: Washington 98% Wisconsin/Notre Dame: 69% Hawaii/Missouri: Missouri 64% Penn St/Tennessee: Penn St 99% Only one upset on the night, in the match that where Pablo had it least likely. OTOH, there were two "upsets" for Batman's predictions, with Missouri over Hawaii being the second. |
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Post by GatorVball on Dec 10, 2005 0:57:34 GMT -5
So, now we're down to 8.
Florida-Nebraska
Missouri-Tennessee
Santa Clara-Arizona
Washington-Wisconsin
Outside of Nebraska and Washington, maybe Florida, I don't think anyone would've predicted these would be the final 8 teams.
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Post by bucky415 on Dec 10, 2005 2:17:51 GMT -5
I don't think Wisconsin is that surprising, given the brackets. I thought they had a good shot because they got Cal at home and a solid matchup for them against Notre Dame, especially since they eliminated the Irish last year. Arizona also isn't all that unexpected, as they clearly have the talent, but they also could have suffered an awful loss at any time.
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Dec 10, 2005 8:42:17 GMT -5
So, now we're down to 8. Florida-Nebraska Missouri-Tennessee Santa Clara-Arizona Washington-Wisconsin Outside of Nebraska and Washington, maybe Florida, I don't think anyone would've predicted these would be the final 8 teams. Let's see, Pablo probabilities for making the final 8: Florida - .795 YEP Nebraska .940 YEP Missouri .492 YEP (Texas was 2nd at .359) Tennessee 0.005 Nope Santa Clara .004 Nope Arizona .617 YEP Washington .985 YEP Wisconsin .570 YEP Given the actual brackets, Pablo picked 6 of the 8. |
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Post by vbfanatic on Dec 10, 2005 9:48:57 GMT -5
Predictions:
Nebraska over Florida in 4
Washington over Wisconsin in 4
Santa Clara over Arizona in 5
Missouri over Tennessee in 4
Final Four:
Washington over Missouri in 5
Nebraska over Santa Clara in 3
Finals:
Nebraska over Washington in 4
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