I say, give it at least one season (2012-13) before really assessing who's in the best short-term situation.
Where do you think Texas finally ends up?
So many rumors; not sure what to believe at this exact moment. If BYU is courted and decides to join the Big 12, I think the conference remains for another year or two. If not, the breakup is inevitable. Read this:
www.statesman.com/sports/longhorns/one-more-move-and-big-12-is-over-1809134.html?cxtype=rss_longhornsOne more move and Big 12 is over
Kirk Bohls, CommentaryUpdated: 10:06 p.m. Wednesday, Aug. 31, 2011
Published: 9:56 p.m. Wednesday, Aug. 31, 2011
Your move, Oklahoma.
Go ahead, Sooners. Make the last move that sinks the Big 12.
And it is quite possible, in light of Texas A&M's defection, that your move will be one that politically astute Texas quietly supports while also hoping that it happens quickly. The Longhorns would dearly love the Sooners to take the lead. And much of the heat that comes with it.
Should Oklahoma act upon its earnest desires and seek an invitation to join the Pacific-12 Conference — something I'm fully expecting to happen within days, if not hours — that decision could well be the killing blow to the Big 12 while also providing Texas the political cover to follow suit and ask for admission as well.
The Pac-12's not going to ask first. It's been down that road before, led along until the eleventh hour a year ago.
If OU gives notice that it is leaving the Big 12 — or if any of the other remaining eight members do, for that matter — the very foundation of the league would crumble.
Here's what I think will happen, probably before the calendar turns to October:
Your new Pac-16 members: Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.
The era of the super conference begins.
The Longhorn Network gets folded into the Pac-16 as a downsized regional network, joining the six regional networks that already exist within the conference.
Missouri ends up in the Big Ten or ACC, and Kansas heads to the Big East. If for some inexplicable reason Texas chooses not to pursue Pac-12 membership, look for Texas Tech to be left out and expect the Pac-12 to focus on Kansas and Missouri along with OU and OSU. Don't dawdle, Texas.
In the end, these Big 12 schools should have gone their separate ways last summer and avoided all this unnecessary drama and hand-wringing. Every school has its own agenda and is ready to act upon it. If A&M can uproot itself from historical ties in the Big 12 and extricate itself from centuries-old rivalries, nothing is sacred.
OU wants to be more assertive and wants to blaze its own trail — separately or aligned with Texas — and will pull the trigger on the relocation it considered last June. Oklahoma State is along for the ride.
Once it became obvious the Aggies were leaving for the SEC, Texas wanted to remain in a 10-team Big 12 with Notre Dame, but the Longhorns must make other plans as the Irish cling firmly to their independence. Maybe the Big 12 could survive with BYU, Pitt and, say, Louisville, and it says here the league would need to add three teams to avoid looking vulnerable to a single school holding the conference's future hostage every year.
But I think Texas would prefer the Pac-Large and would do cartwheels if OU made the first dramatic move, so the Longhorns' hands would be politically clean.
Texas president William Powers embraced the idea of rubbing elbows with academic elites in the Pac-10 a year ago, but he was persuaded to stay put by athletic director DeLoss Dodds.
Once Notre Dame turned down the Big 12, the list of attractive replacements for A&M fell off dramatically.
BYU remains a possibility, but its use of older, more mature athletes because of two-year mission trips, its refusal to play on Sundays and its lack of an impeccable academic pedigree make it a harder sell.
Houston makes sense for the state and links up with legislators' desires to create another top-tier research institution, but Texas and Texas Tech would prefer to keep that rich recruiting base to themselves.
Pittsburgh makes little geographic sense but would greatly expand the Big 12's footprint. But so would the University of British Columbia, and I haven't seen them on the list.
Because the Big 12's options are few, its future is tenuous at best. No one seems to trust anyone any more. Everybody is jealous of Texas' clout and tired of its flaunting of the Longhorn Network. Most of the Big 12 schools are petrified they'll be left out. With good reason.
Every Big 12 school will have Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott on speed-dial and will beg the Pac-12 to embrace it as a member. Scott issued a statement Wednesday, saying his league has "no plans to expand" at this time, but added that his schools will listen to and evaluate any scenario. Scott has openly predicted more realignment will occur in college athletics in the near future.
OU clearly wanted to bolt to the Pac-10 a year ago and take Oklahoma State with it. That hasn't changed. The OU administration warmly embraced the idea. Bob Stoops was ready to take the field at the Rose Bowl for the league's first championship game.
He openly lusted over all those California recruits.
Texas and Texas Tech were this close to joining them before a political wrench and the Longhorn Network brought those plans to a halt.
It was a done deal until it was undone at the last moment.
Fifteen months later, OU will take the lead.
"Oklahoma owns all the cards," a Big 12 source told me.
Look for the Pac-12 and interested Big 12 parties to use the same script as A&M did in plotting its exit from the Big 12. Nobody wants to be the instigator in these delicate, sensitive negotiations, and no one wants to be the villain. Expect them all to paint the Aggies with that broad brush.
And once OU and Texas make that clear, then it will be every man for himself.
kbohls@statesman.com; 445-3772