|
|
Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Nov 29, 2011 12:47:54 GMT -5
A common question we think about with the tournament (and we have seen a couple threads on it already) is "Who faces the hardest test?" and "Who has it easiest?" Here is Pablo's take on the matter. METHODOLOGY DETAILS: I examine the brackets by using the same type of approach that I use to calculate final four probabilities (see but sort of in reverse. Instead of asking "What are the chances that team X will reach the sweet 16?" I ask, "How good would team X need to be to reach the sweet 16 given the competition they will face?" The advantage to this approach is that it takes the team's quality out of the equation, and focuses solely on the quality of the competition. It's kind of like the 50/50 analysis that I use for conferences (see the Pablo FAQ), except I change the probabilities to an extent. Thus, the Sweet 16 rating refers to that needed to have a 75% chance of making the Sweet 16, while the Final Four rating is what is needed for a 25% chance of making the final four. Results to follow |
|
|
|
Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Nov 29, 2011 12:59:08 GMT -5
First question: Who has the toughest path to get out of the first two rounds?
Not surprisingly, the teams with the toughest paths out of the subregionals are those that face the strongest teams in the earliest rounds. Therefore, Yale, Oklahoma, and Tulsa are the top three, because they all have to get through USC.
1 Yale 8438
2 Oklahoma 8437
3 Tulsa 8422
4 Texas State 8416
5 Arizona 8408
6 Michigan State 8378
7 Liberty 8221
8 American 8220
9 Delaware 8210
10 Morehead State 8159
11 Ball State 8152
12 Wichita State 8152
The easiest subregionals are all for the seeded teams, so let's just jump to them.
1 Northern Iowa 7345
2 Hawaii 7328
3 Minnesota 7299
4 Iowa State 7204
5 Tennessee 7188
6 Pepperdine 7149
7 Illinois 7093
8 UCLA 7070
9 Texas 7061
10 Texas A&M 7037
11 USC 6917
12 Stanford 6862
13 Florida State 6823
14 Nebraska 6760
15 Purdue 6666
16 Penn State 6173
Of course, the team with the easiest path to the sweet 16 is Penn St, and that doesn't surprise anyone. The next easiest is Purdue. UNI has the hardest path to the Sweet 16, just barely edging out Hawaii. That's because while UNI has an easy match in the first round, their second round match is likely against Florida, who is the highest ranked non-seeded team. Hawaii doesn't have an opponent as strong as Florida, but has a stronger first round opponent. I should note that the range from Purdue to UNI is about the same as what I found last year, and Penn St was similarly an outlier.
Here are the 8 easiest paths to the Sweet 16 for the non-seeded teams
41 Florida 7738
42 Baylor 7706
43 Sacred Heart 7688
44 Albany 7683
45 Samford 7672
46 Washington 7596
47 Michigan 7530
48 Cincinnati 7491
Note they are all harder than those for the seeded teams.
Remember, the ratings here are what the team would need to be rated in order to have a 75% chance of advancing to the sweet 16. Therefore, Penn St only needs to be rated 6100 to have a 75% chance. Penn St's rating is actually 7300, so they have a much better than 75% chance of making the sweet 16.
|
|
|
|
Post by gtvb1 on Nov 29, 2011 13:09:51 GMT -5
Penn state has a 99.99999% chance of making the sweet 16 based on the gtvb1 eyeball calculations
|
|
|
|
Post by bmil87 on Nov 29, 2011 13:17:22 GMT -5
First question: Who has the toughest path to get out of the first two rounds? Not surprisingly, the teams with the toughest paths out of the subregionals are those that face the strongest teams in the earliest rounds. Therefore, Yale, Oklahoma, and Tulsa are the top three, because they all have to get through USC. 1 Yale 8438 2 Oklahoma 8437 3 Tulsa 8422 4 Texas State 8416 5 Arizona 8408 6 Michigan State 8378 7 Liberty 8221 8 American 8220 9 Delaware 8210 10 Morehead State 8159 11 Ball State 8152 12 Wichita State 8152 The easiest subregionals are all for the seeded teams, so let's just jump to them. 1 Northern Iowa 7345 2 Hawaii 7328 3 Minnesota 7299 4 Iowa State 7204 5 Tennessee 7188 6 Pepperdine 7149 7 Illinois 7093 8 UCLA 7070 9 Texas 7061 10 Texas A&M 7037 11 USC 6917 12 Stanford 6862 13 Florida State 6823 14 Nebraska 6760 15 Purdue 6666 16 Penn State 6173 Of course, the team with the easiest path to the sweet 16 is Penn St, and that doesn't surprise anyone. The next easiest is Purdue. UNI has the hardest path to the Sweet 16, just barely edging out Hawaii. That's because while UNI has an easy match in the first round, their second round match is likely against Florida, who is the highest ranked non-seeded team. Hawaii doesn't have an opponent as strong as Florida, but has a stronger first round opponent. I should note that the range from Purdue to UNI is about the same as what I found last year, and Penn St was similarly an outlier. Here are the 8 easiest paths to the Sweet 16 for the non-seeded teams 41 Florida 7738 42 Baylor 7706 43 Sacred Heart 7688 44 Albany 7683 45 Samford 7672 46 Washington 7596 47 Michigan 7530 48 Cincinnati 7491 Note they are all harder than those for the seeded teams. Remember, the ratings here are what the team would need to be rated in order to have a 75% chance of advancing to the sweet 16. Therefore, Penn St only needs to be rated 6100 to have a 75% chance. Penn St's rating is actually 7300, so they have a much better than 75% chance of making the sweet 16. I have to say that in following all of the chatter on VT about the championship bracket, no one has really questioned Florida State making it out of their subregional, in spite of the presence of a surging and (in my opinion) underrated Cincinnati team. I was able to watch their Big East final against Notre Dame, and they have quite the buzzsaw in Jordanne Scott, along with some strong senior leadership. If they can get those key players going in their matches, I would watch out for a potential (and not terribly surprising) upset. |
|
|
|
Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Nov 29, 2011 13:17:49 GMT -5
Next question: Who has the easiest path to the final four?
This gets a little more interesting. First, let's start with the hardest path, among all teams. Recall, these are 25% probability levels:
1 Yale 7693
2 Oklahoma 7693
3 Tulsa 7679
4 Texas State 7670
5 Northern Colorado 7668
6 Arizona 7665
7 Colorado State 7651
8 Michigan State 7638
9 Oregon 7638
10 San Diego 7634
11 Maryland Eastern Shore 7629
12 Long Beach State 7620
13 Dayton 7617
14 Lipscomb 7612
15 Missouri State 7602
It doesn't get any easier for Yale if they make the sweet 16.
The other end is actually interesting, because there is a mix of seeded and unseeded teams.
46 Sacred Heart 7293
47 Cincinnati 7293
48 Ohio State 7289
49 Western Kentucky 7271
50 Hawaii 7241
51 Michigan 7226
52 Nebraska 7172
53 Texas 7151
54 USC 7138
55 Florida State 7128
56 Iowa State 7104
57 Florida 7072
58 Minnesota 7064
59 Tennessee 7060
60 Penn State 7037
61 Stanford 7034
62 Illinois 7022
63 Northern Iowa 7006
64 Purdue 6840
So if Sacred Heart can get through Stanford in the first round, it actually lets up for them, comparatively! Of the non-seeded teams, Florida is found to have the easiest path overall.
I'll put seeded teams in a separate post
|
|
|
|
Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Nov 29, 2011 13:33:34 GMT -5
Seeded teams' paths to the final four:
1 UCLA 7376
2 Texas A&M 7360
3 Pepperdine 7344
4 Hawaii 7241
5 Nebraska 7172
6 Texas 7151
7 USC 7138
8 Florida State 7128
9 Iowa State 7104
10 Minnesota 7064
11 Tennessee 7060
12 Penn State 7037
13 Stanford 7034
14 Illinois 7022
15 Northern Iowa 7006
16 Purdue 6840
Surprisingly, UCLA is calculated to have the hardest path, followed by TAMU. Pepperdine and Hawaii come in next. This is because of the relative Pablo ratings of the opponents involved. In order to make the final four, UCLA has to get by #2 Texas and #3 Penn St. Yes, Pepperdine and Hawaii have to get by #1 USC, but Nebraska is #5. Moreover, the rating difference between #1 and #2 is only 55 points, while the difference between #3 and #5 is about 150, so that makes the 2/3 series more difficult to win than 1/5. You can see this by looking at Elite 8 ratings (50/50s), where the four hardest are (in order) TAMU, Hawaii, UCLA, and Pepperdine. IOW, if UCLA gets by Penn St to get to the elite 8, they likely have to face Texas, which makes their path harder. Similarly, if Pepperdine gets by Nebraska, they likely have to face USC, which makes their path harder from their than Hawaii's.
Purdue has the easiest path to the final four. Note that while Penn St has the easiest path to the sweet 16, the regionals get much tougher. In fact, if you look at the elite eight ratings, Penn St passes Purdue already in the Sweet 16, and then they have a big challenge in Texas.
|
|
|
|
Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Nov 29, 2011 13:34:45 GMT -5
I have to say that in following all of the chatter on VT about the championship bracket, no one has really questioned Florida State making it out of their subregional, in spite of the presence of a surging and (in my opinion) underrated Cincinnati team. I suspect folks are thinking, "Cincinnati just lost at home to Ohio" |
|
|
|
Post by bmil87 on Nov 29, 2011 13:59:28 GMT -5
Ooops!, I keep forgetting there were additional matches after conference tourneys. Perhaps I'll chalk it up to a let down after winning and assuring their place in the tourney  |
|
|
|
Post by mikegarrison on Nov 29, 2011 14:24:17 GMT -5
Next question: Who has the easiest path to the final four? 64 Purdue 6840 Interesting that your analysis came up with the same answer as my eyeball of the bracket. |
|
|
|
Post by jgrout on Nov 29, 2011 14:27:26 GMT -5
This is the kind of thread I'd like to see more of on VT. Thanks, Bofa!
|
|
|
|
Post by JT on Nov 29, 2011 15:00:17 GMT -5
Does any of this take HCA into account?
|
|
|
|
Post by sivert on Nov 29, 2011 15:25:49 GMT -5
Uhm, maybe I'm understanding this backwards, but how can UNI have the toughest to the Sweet16 and nearly the easiest path to the Final4?
|
|
|
|
Post by stand on Nov 29, 2011 15:51:19 GMT -5
Uhm, maybe I'm understanding this backwards, but how can UNI have the toughest to the Sweet16 and nearly the easiest path to the Final4? They face Florida (Pablo #7) in the sub-regional. In the regional they face Stanford (Pablo #25), and then either Illinois or Tennessee (#10/9). So UNI's toughest opponent is in the sub-regional, according to Pablo. |
|
|
|
Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Nov 29, 2011 16:05:05 GMT -5
Does any of this take HCA into account? It all takes the HCA in account where appropriate. |
|
|
|
Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Nov 29, 2011 16:07:46 GMT -5
Uhm, maybe I'm understanding this backwards, but how can UNI have the toughest to the Sweet16 and nearly the easiest path to the Final4? They face Florida (Pablo #7) in the sub-regional. In the regional they face Stanford (Pablo #25), and then either Illinois or Tennessee (#10/9). So UNI's toughest opponent is in the sub-regional, according to Pablo. Good call. Most teams face more difficult opponents in the regionals so their paths get relatively more difficult. |
|
