Projected RKPI (11/5/2012

[Rich Kern]

Updated based on results through 11/4/2012

Rank	Team
1	Stanford
2	Penn State
3	Texas
4	Nebraska
5	UCLA
6	Minnesota
7	Oregon
8	Florida State
9	BYU
10	Louisville
11	North Carolina
12	USC
13	Florida
14	San Diego
15	Kansas State
16	Kentucky
17	Kansas
18	Texas A&M
19	Ohio State
20	Miami-FL
21	Washington
22	Tennessee
23	Hawaii
24	Purdue
25	Dayton
26	Notre Dame
27	Iowa State
28	Saint Marys
29	Western Kentucky
30	Creighton
31	Colorado State
32	Arkansas
33	Pepperdine
34	Oklahoma
35	Marquette
36	San Diego State
37	Michigan State
38	California
39	Illinois
40	Santa Clara
41	Michigan
42	Arizona State
43	Northern Iowa
44	Northwestern
45	Virginia Tech
46	Clemson
47	Wichita State
48	NC State
49	Arizona
50	Yale
51	Long Beach State
52	Fresno State
53	Portland State
54	Xavier
55	Tulsa
56	Loyola Marymount
57	Missouri
58	Baylor
59	Bowling Green
60	Georgia Tech
61	Idaho State
62	UNLV
63	Auburn
64	College of Charleston
65	Pacific
66	VCU
67	Ohio
68	IPFW
69	San Francisco
70	TCU
71	Morehead State
72	UCSB
73	Oregon State
74	Central Arkansas
75	Georgia
76	Northern Arizona
77	Lipscomb
78	Western Michigan
79	New Mexico State
80	Wisconsin
81	Georgia Southern
82	Southern Illinois
83	Towson
84	Cal State Northridge
85	Duke
86	Utah State
87	Cincinnati
88	Cleveland State
89	Maryland
90	Northeastern
91	Furman
92	Illinois State
93	Sam Houston State
94	Northern Colorado
95	Eastern Michigan
96	Seton Hall
97	Florida Gulf Coast
98	LSU
99	Wyoming
100	Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
101	New Mexico
102	Utah
103	Texas-San Antonio
104	Samford
105	Duquesne
106	Missouri State
107	Rutgers
108	Rice
109	Colorado
110	St. Johns
111	Arkansas State
112	IUPUI
113	Pittsburgh
114	Texas Tech
115	UConn
116	North Texas
117	South Carolina
118	Oral Roberts
119	Ole Miss
120	Northern Illinois
121	LIU Brooklyn
122	USF
123	Liberty
124	Ball State
125	Idaho
126	Indiana
127	UTEP
128	Northwestern State
129	High Point
130	Albany
131	Alabama
132	South Dakota State
133	Army
134	Montana State
135	East Tennessee State
136	Valparaiso
137	Troy University
138	UC Davis
139	Washington State
140	Boise State
141	Oakland
142	North Dakota
143	Boston College
144	Iowa
145	Houston Baptist
146	Texas State
147	Cal State Fullerton
148	Virginia
149	Denver
150	Delaware
151	UMKC
152	Northern Kentucky
153	UC Irvine
154	Butler
155	Utah Valley
156	UAB
157	Maryland Eastern Shore
158	George Washington
159	Central Michigan
160	American
161	Princeton
162	Arkansas-Little Rock
163	Illinois-Chicago
164	South Dakota
165	Fairfield
166	UNF
167	Wisconsin-Green Bay
168	Saint Louis
169	Loyola-Chicago
170	Columbia
171	Akron
172	Siena
173	Gonzaga
174	Stephen F. Austin
175	Penn
176	Wake Forest
177	Austin Peay
178	Portland
179	North Dakota State
180	Sacramento State
181	Air Force
182	Belmont
183	Middle Tennessee
184	UCF
185	South Alabama
186	Colgate
187	Southeast Missouri
188	Lehigh
189	Temple
190	Marshall
191	UNC Greensboro
192	Canisius
193	Wofford
194	Presbyterian
195	San Jose State
196	SMU
197	West Virginia
198	Villanova
199	Kennesaw State
200	Hofstra
201	Youngstown State
202	Jacksonville State
203	William & Mary
204	Niagara
205	Louisiana-Lafayette
206	James Madison
207	Nicholls State
208	Florida International
209	Tennessee State
210	Elon
211	Stony Brook
212	Houston
213	Mississippi State
214	Evansville
215	Georgetown
216	Davidson
217	Cal Poly
218	Charlotte
219	Rhode Island
220	Texas-Arlington
221	DePaul
222	Western Illinois
223	Jacksonville
224	Montana
225	Syracuse
226	Wisconsin-Milwaukee
227	Bradley
228	CSU Bakersfield
229	Kent State
230	Coastal Carolina
231	Nevada
232	UNC Wilmington
233	Toledo
234	Seattle
235	Harvard
236	Southeastern Louisiana
237	New Hampshire
238	Florida A&M
239	Mercer
240	Loyola University Maryland
241	Georgia State
242	UMBC
243	Memphis
244	Lamar
245	Buffalo
246	Miami-OH
247	Nebraska-Omaha
248	Robert Morris
249	Chattanooga
250	UNC Asheville
251	Southern Utah
252	Binghamton
253	Winthrop
254	Jackson State
255	Central Connecticut State
256	Louisiana-Monroe
257	Radford
258	Iona
259	South Carolina Upstate
260	Hampton
261	Navy
262	Drake
263	Eastern Illinois
264	Manhattan College
265	Weber State
266	Eastern Kentucky
267	NJIT
268	Sacred Heart
269	Fordham
270	UC Riverside
271	Brown
272	McNeese State
273	Texas-Pan American
274	Marist
275	Cornell
276	George Mason
277	Western Carolina
278	St. Francis-PA
279	Coppin State
280	UT Martin
281	Appalachian State
282	Tulane
283	Prairie View A&M
284	Eastern Washington
285	Texas Southern
286	Southern Miss
287	SIUE
288	Bucknell
289	Morgan State
290	Norfolk State
291	Indiana State
292	Charleston Southern
293	Alabama A&M
294	Florida Atlantic
295	Lafayette
296	La Salle
297	Gardner-Webb
298	Rider
299	South Carolina State
300	Murray State
301	Wright State
302	New Orleans
303	The Citadel
304	Bryant
305	Louisiana Tech
306	Tennessee Tech
307	Dartmouth
308	Hartford
309	North Carolina Central
310	Arkansas-Pine Bluff
311	Stetson
312	Campbell
313	Fairleigh Dickinson
314	Alabama State
315	Chicago State
316	Holy Cross
317	Mississippi Valley State
318	Delaware State
319	East Carolina
320	Bethune-Cookman
321	St. Francis-NY
322	Southern
323	Quinnipiac
324	Howard
325	Saint Peters
326	Providence
327	Grambling State
328	North Carolina A&T
329	Savannah State
330	Alcorn Sta

[c4ndlelight]

How can Arizona and ASU add USC/UCLA's W-L to their SOS, go 1-1 and still barely rise? In fact, I think Arizona went down. How is that possible?

Also, is Yale going to count as an RPI top 50 win in the Nitty Gritty? Shaking my head.......

[tempesthorn]

Nov 5, 2012 11:25:43 GMT -5 c4ndlelight said:

How can Arizona and ASU add USC/UCLA's W-L to their SOS, go 1-1 and still barely rise? In fact, I think Arizona went down. How is that possible?

The fact that someone you are playing for the second time does NOT increase your SOS is something people fail to realize about RPI. The Arizona schools played USC/UCLA back in the first week of October so their results and their opponents results are already factoring in to the Arizona schools RPI.

[c4ndlelight]

Nov 5, 2012 11:38:11 GMT -5 tempesthorn said:

Nov 5, 2012 11:25:43 GMT -5 c4ndlelight said:

How can Arizona and ASU add USC/UCLA's W-L to their SOS, go 1-1 and still barely rise? In fact, I think Arizona went down. How is that possible?

The fact that someone you are playing for the second time does NOT increase your SOS is something people fail to realize about RPI. The Arizona schools played USC/UCLA back in the first week of October so their results and their opponents results are already factoring in to the Arizona schools RPI.

I'm pretty sure the figures get double-counted when you play someone twice. Can Rich or Pablo confirm?

[ilovevolleyball]

How does TN fall when they beat FL yesterday?

[Rich Kern]

Nov 5, 2012 11:39:29 GMT -5 c4ndlelight said:

Nov 5, 2012 11:38:11 GMT -5 tempesthorn said:

The fact that someone you are playing for the second time does NOT increase your SOS is something people fail to realize about RPI. The Arizona schools played USC/UCLA back in the first week of October so their results and their opponents results are already factoring in to the Arizona schools RPI.

I'm pretty sure the figures get double-counted when you play someone twice. Can Rich or Pablo confirm?

Confirmed

[Rich Kern]

I think some of you might be missing the point of this exercise or are not looking at the correct numbers. This table is the result of what MIGHT happen assuming all teams win all the matches they are expected to win for the rest of the season according to current Pablo rankings. You should be comparing these numbers to the projected ones I posted last week, not the latest RKPI rankings. These are the RKPI rankings projected for the end of the season based on those projected results.

For examples, last week's projected Arizona end-of-season ranking was 56 and after their big win, it became 49, Arizona State went from 46 to 42 and Tennessee went from 23 to 22.

[snickers]

Nov 5, 2012 12:15:36 GMT -5 Rich Kern said:

I think some of you might be missing the point of this exercise or are not looking at the correct numbers. This table is the result of what MIGHT happen assuming all teams win all the matches they are expected to win for the rest of the season according to current Pablo rankings. You should be comparing these numbers to the projected ones I posted last week, not the latest RKPI rankings. These are the RKPI rankings projected for the end of the season based on those projected results.

For examples, last week's projected Arizona end-of-season ranking was 56 and after their big win, it became 49, Arizona State went from 46 to 42 and Tennessee went from 23 to 22.

Good clarification. I read this as the projected RKPI for today.

[ugopher]

Nov 5, 2012 12:15:36 GMT -5 Rich Kern said:

I think some of you might be missing the point of this exercise or are not looking at the correct numbers. This table is the result of what MIGHT happen assuming all teams win all the matches they are expected to win for the rest of the season according to current Pablo rankings. You should be comparing these numbers to the projected ones I posted last week, not the latest RKPI rankings. These are the RKPI rankings projected for the end of the season based on those projected results.

For examples, last week's projected Arizona end-of-season ranking was 56 and after their big win, it became 49, Arizona State went from 46 to 42 and Tennessee went from 23 to 22.

I imagine, then, that Arizona and Arizona St saw big increases as they won matches they were not projected to win. Correct?

[Rich Kern]

Nov 5, 2012 12:22:37 GMT -5 ugopher said:

Nov 5, 2012 12:15:36 GMT -5 Rich Kern said:

I think some of you might be missing the point of this exercise or are not looking at the correct numbers. This table is the result of what MIGHT happen assuming all teams win all the matches they are expected to win for the rest of the season according to current Pablo rankings. You should be comparing these numbers to the projected ones I posted last week, not the latest RKPI rankings. These are the RKPI rankings projected for the end of the season based on those projected results.

For examples, last week's projected Arizona end-of-season ranking was 56 and after their big win, it became 49, Arizona State went from 46 to 42 and Tennessee went from 23 to 22.

I imagine, then, that Arizona and Arizona St saw big increases as they won matches they were not projected to win. Correct?

That is correct.

[Deleted]

OK, gotch now. I thought this was your expectations for today's RPI release. Instead, you are predicting final RPI's if teams win and lose expected matches.

[mikegarrison]

Rich, while I understood the post because I remembered the explanation in the previous one, it is obvious that if you do it again you should lead it off with a short explanation of what it is.

[Rich Kern]

Nov 5, 2012 12:38:15 GMT -5 @checkerbox said:

OK, gotch now. I thought this was your expectations for today's RPI release. Instead, you are predicting final RPI's if teams win and lose expected matches.

Yes, I don't need to project today's results, I already know them ;D

[herdmentality]

Thanks again Rich. Great work!

[c4ndlelight]

Nov 5, 2012 12:15:36 GMT -5 Rich Kern said:

I think some of you might be missing the point of this exercise or are not looking at the correct numbers. This table is the result of what MIGHT happen assuming all teams win all the matches they are expected to win for the rest of the season according to current Pablo rankings. You should be comparing these numbers to the projected ones I posted last week, not the latest RKPI rankings. These are the RKPI rankings projected for the end of the season based on those projected results.

For examples, last week's projected Arizona end-of-season ranking was 56 and after their big win, it became 49, Arizona State went from 46 to 42 and Tennessee went from 23 to 22.

My bad--sorry for the myopia. Thank you, this is great work again!