Post by trojansc on Nov 24, 2014 19:40:20 GMT -5
Trojan Bracketology (2014)
updated: 11/28
Your Complete guide to the 2014 NCAA tournament.
RPI Rankings as of (11/24)
I will finalize this after last day of regular season (tomorrow) (11/29) and let you know what's going to happen on Selection Sunday. (11/30)
The committee will use an updated RPI generated as all the matches have concluded, but they've already started working on the bracket.
2013 Trojan Bracketology
2012 Trojan Bracketology
32 Automatic Qualifiers (11/24 RPI ranking in parentheses)
(Conference Breakdown & Standings at bottom of page)
(Teams in GREEN have clinched NCAA-automatic bids via Conference Championship)
(Teams in WHITE are projected conference winners)
Only at-large bids at risk are: Illinois State & UALR in their conference tournaments.
ACC – North Carolina (6)
America East – New Hampshire (207)
AAC –UCF (33)
Atlantic 10 – Dayton (66)
Atlantic Sun – Jacksonville (141)
Big 10 – Wisconsin (5)
Big 12 – Texas (2)
Big East – Creighton (34)
Big Sky – Northern Colorado (74)
Big South – Coastal Carolina (65)
Big West – Long Beach State (25)
Colonial – Hofstra (93)
Conference USA – Western Kentucky (32)
Horizon – Oakland (108)
Ivy – Yale (67)
MAAC – Siena (189)
MAC – Western Michigan
MEAC – Hampton (167)
MVC – Illinois State (37)
MWC – Colorado State (16)
NEC – LIU Brooklyn (62)
OVC – Murray State (114)
Pac-12 – Stanford (1)
Patriot – American (76)
SEC – Florida (7)
SoCon – Samford (137)
Southland – Northwestern St (226)
Summit – Denver (77)
Sun Belt – UALR (36)
SWAC – Alabama State (273)
WAC – Cal State Bakersfield (200)
WCC – BYU (20)
32 At-Large Bids
(sorted in order of RPI)
Orange teams are locks (or everything but locks) to NCAA tournament.
Blue teams have eligibility issues.
Yellow teams are firmly on the bubble and every game is vital.
Illinois State and UALR will be on the bubble if they lose their conference tournaments.
Lipscomb and Ohio lost their conference tournaments and are in trouble.
I notoriously change at least one or two of the last-four in on the last day of the season, but I would expect this to be very close to the 64 seen in the tournament field on Sunday.
(3) Florida State
(4) Washington
(8) Oregon
(9) Illinois
(10) Penn State
(11) Nebraska
(12) Iowa State
(13) Arizona
(14) Kansas
(15) Kentucky
(17) UCLA
(18) Kansas State
(19) Texas A&M
(21) Duke
(22) Oklahoma
(23) Southern California
(24) Colorado
(26) Marquette
(27) Alabama
(28) Miami(FL)
(29) Ohio State
(30) Hawaii
(31) Lipscomb
(35) Oregon St
(38) LSU
(39) Loyola Marymount
(40) CSUN
(41) Arizona State
(42) San Diego
(45) Santa Clara
(46) Utah
(48) Pacific
Other serious at-large contenders:
(43) Southern Methodist
(44) Ohio
(47) Virginia Tech
(49) Minnesota
(50) Michigan State
(51) Pittsburgh
(52) Tulsa
(53) Michigan - ineligible
(54) Purdue
(55) Seton Hall
(56) Xavier
(57) UNLV
(59) Virginia
(61) Temple
(64) Northwestern
Honorable Mention (just outside consideration for At-Larges)
(58) Baylor (ineligible)
(60) George Washington
(63) Ole Miss
(69) Wyoming
At-Large Bids per Conference:
ACC: 3
AAC: 0
A-SUN: 1
Big East: 1
Big 10: 4
Big 12: 4
Big West: 2
Pac-12: 9
SEC: 4
WCC: 4
Highest RPI as of Today excluded from the NCAA tournament:
43 Southern Methodist
Last Four In: 48 Pacific, 46 Utah, 42 San Diego, 40 CSUN
Last Four Out: 47 Virginia Tech, 50 Michigan State, 54 Purdue, 43 Southern Methodist
Next Four Out: 44 Ohio, 49 Minnesota, 51 Pittsburgh, 52 Tulsa
I will add in commentary why I chose those bubble teams in or out, but here are the below credentials so you guys can argue discuss, and critique potential teams. All results as of matches played by 11/28, all RPI rankings as of 11/24.
List of All 2014 NCAA Bubble Teams Credentials
Note: Michigan and Southern California were not included in this list. Michigan did not finish eligible for the NCAA Tournament, and should USC finish eligible, they will be in the NCAA Tournament.
AAC
Southern Methodist
------------------
Overall Record: 26-6
Conference Record: 15-5
Non=Conference Record: 11-1
RPI: 43
Worst Loss (by RPI): 148 San Francisco
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 22 Oklahoma 52 Tulsa 61 Temple
Significant Losses (100+RPI): 148 San Francisco
Record vs. Top-25 RPI: 1-0
Record vs. Top-50 RPI: 1-3
Record vs. Top-100 RPI: 7-5
Last 10 Matches: 9-1
Notes: SMU has won 10 of their last 11, only loss to UCF. They beat all of the AAC teams outside of the top 5. Their only losses were to (Temple, UCF(x2), Tulsa, Memphis) only OOC loss was to San Francisco. Now that i think about it, SMU looks pretty decent but I'm really not sold on only one top 50 win.... Tulsa likely won't finish Top-50..
Tulsa
-----
Overall Record: 21-9
Conference Record: 13-5
Non=Conference Record: 8-4
RPI: 52
Worst Loss (by RPI): 158 South Florida
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 33 UCF, 43 Southern Methodist, 61 Temple
Significant Losses (100+RPI): 120 Northern Arizona, 158 USF, 150 Cincinatti
Record vs. Top-25 RPI: 0-1
Record vs. Top-50 RPI: 2-3
Record vs. Top-100 RPI: 5-5
Last 10 Matches: 8-1
Remaining Matches: (@ecu)
Notes: Tulsa is OUT - but they had a chance against SMU. Even if they won out, it was hard to let them in, but it might have kicked SMU out.
ACC
Virginia Tech
-------------
Overall Record: 17-14
Conference Record: 10-8
Non=Conference Record: 7-6
RPI: 47
Worst Loss (by RPI): 164 Belmont
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 9 Illinois, 21 Duke, 51 Pittsburgh(x2)
Significant Losses (100+RPI): 142 Wake Forest, 164 Belmont, 113 Washington State
Record vs. Top-25 RPI: 2-5
Record vs. Top-50 RPI: 2-6
Record vs. Top-100 RPI: 10-9
Last 10 Matches: 8-2
Notes: Virginia Tech has two really good wins over Illinois and Duke, and also beat Pittsburgh twice. Since Virginia Tech has a better RPI, I'm going to lean with them as a better candidate than Pittsburgh. My concern is that they have three bad losses. If Virginia Tech had beaten Miami, I would be more confident in putting them in. Right now, Virginia Tech is OUT.
Pittsburgh
----------
Overall Record: 25-6
Conference Record: 13-5
Non=Conference Record: 12-1
RPI: 51
Worst Loss (by RPI): 48 Virginia Tech(x2)
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 21 Duke, 59 Virginia, 62 LIU Brooklyn
Significant Losses (100+RPI): NONE
Record vs. Top-25 RPI: 1-3
Record vs. Top-50 RPI: 1-4
Record vs. Top-100 RPI: 6-6
Last 10 Matches: 7-3
Notes: Not seeing Pitt get in with only one win - even though it's a top-25 win. They needed to beat Miami, a good record and solid season for Pitt... play bigger names next season!
Miami (FL)
----------
Overall Record: 21-8
Conference Record: 14-4
Non=Conference Record: 7-4
RPI: 28
Worst Loss (by RPI): 88 TCU
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 47 Virginia Tech, 51 Pittsburgh, 55 Seton Hall, 59 Virginia,
Significant Losses (100+RPI): (if any, TCU)
Record vs. Top-25 RPI: 0-5
Record vs. Top-50 RPI: 1-6
Record vs. Top-100 RPI: 7-8
Last 10 Matches: 8-2
Notes: Miami is probably in. They didn't lose to anyone outside Top 100, but they only have one-top 50 win and they are barely going to be in there. Pittsburgh I don't think is climbing into top-50 range, but there is a chance Seton Hall may finish top-50.
A-SUN
Lipscomb
--------
Overall Record: 21-8
Conference Record: 14-2
Non=Conference Record: 7-6
RPI: 31
Worst Loss (by RPI): 110 Northern Kentucky, 135 Georgia Tech, 141 Jacksonville
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 14 Kansas, 37 Illinois State
Significant Losses (100+RPI): 110 Northern Kentucky, 135 Georgia Tech, 141 Jacksonville
Record vs. Top-25 RPI: 1-1
Record vs. Top-50 RPI: 2-4
Record vs. Top-100 RPI: 5-5
Last 10 Matches: 8-2
Notes: Lipscomb will be sweatin in their church clothes on Sunday. What's saving them is they have two top-50 wins. The win over Illinois State may be enough to help their Kansas loss not look like a fluke. An 8-2 finish, pretty solid RPI, two top-50 wins, i'll take it.. Their resume looks better than Hawaii and Miami except when you consider bad losses. I think 150+ losses are worse, and 200+ losses are the ones that Kill.... I say Lipscomb IN.
BIG 10
Purdue
------
Overall Record: 22-10
Conference Record: 12-8
Non=Conference Record: 10-2
RPI: 54
Worst Loss (by RPI): 118 Saint Louis
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 29 Ohio State, 38 LSU, 42 San Diego, 49 Minnesota, 50 Michigan State, 53 Michigan, 64 Northwestern
Significant Losses (100+RPI): 118 Saint Louis
Record vs. Top-25 RPI: 0-4
Record vs. Top-50 RPI: 4-6
Record vs. Top-100 RPI: 8-7
Last 10 Matches: 4-6
Remaining Matches: at Wisc
Notes: Purdue doesn't have any Top-25 wins, but will probably finish with four top-50 victories. Will that be enough? I see Pacific with four top-50 victories, no losses outside the top-50 RPI, and a better RPI. I think if Purdue loses to Wisconsin tonight, they are OUT.
Michigan State
--------------
Overall Record: 18-13
Conference Record: 11-9
Non=Conference Record: 7-4
RPI: 50
Worst Loss (by RPI): 62 LIU Brooklyn
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 35 Oregon State, 32 Western Kentucky, 53 Michigan, 54 Purdue 64 Northwestern
Significant Losses (100+RPI): NONE
Record vs. Top-25 RPI: 0-8
Record vs. Top-50 RPI: 2-10
Record vs. Top-100 RPI: 8-13
Last 10 Matches: 6-4
Remaining Matches: at Iowa
Notes: Sparty needs to beat Iowa and hope for the best. I think right now, Michigan State is OUT.
Minnesota
------------
Overall Record: 19-12
Conference Record: 9-11
Non=Conference Record: 10-1
RPI: 49
Worst Loss (by RPI): 112 Indiana
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 12 Iowa State, 29 Ohio State, 50 Michigan State, 52 Tulsa, 54 Purdue, 64 Northwestern
Significant Losses (100+RPI): 112 Indiana
Record vs. Top-25 RPI: 1-7
Record vs. Top-50 RPI: 4-8
Record vs. Top-100 RPI: 9-10
Last 10 Matches: 5-5
Remaining Matches: Indiana
Notes: Minnesota could have had a chance with a second win over Ohio State, and while I still think they are in contention, I think they are just out. They do have a top-25 RPI victory. They really need to beat Indiana tonight or they are definitely out.
Big East
Xavier
------
Overall Record: 19-12
Conference Record: 12-7
Non=Conference Record: 7-5
RPI: 56
Worst Loss (by RPI): Missouri
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 31 Lipscomb, 37 Illinois State, 55 Seton Hall,
Significant Losses (100+RPI): Missouri
Record vs. Top-25 RPI: 0-3
Record vs. Top-50 RPI: 2-7
Record vs. Top-100 RPI: 5-10
Last 10 Matches: 7-3
Notes: Xavier pushes Creighton, but they can't come up with a win. Nice season for Xavier, and while they will not receive an NCAA-bid, I am including their resume out of respect. Three straight years, no bid for Xavier.. but they've been included on my resume list for the past three years. They have a great sophomore in Abbey Bessler. Second straight year Xavier goes down to Creighton to end their season.
Seton Hall
----------
Overall Record: 27-6
Conference Record: 15-3
Non=Conference Record: 12-3
RPI: 55
Worst Loss (by RPI): 75 West Virginia
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 26 Marquette(x2), 34 Creighton(x2), 56 Xavier, 62 LIU Brooklyn
Significant Losses (100+RPI): NONE
Record vs. Top-25 RPI: 2-2
Record vs. Top-50 RPI: 4-2
Record vs. Top-100 RPI: 8-6
Last 10 Matches: 9-0
Remaining Matches: Creighton
Notes: I really like Seton Hall. I think I have them in, maybe bumping off Pacific! Will have to see how things finish out.
MAC
Ohio
----
Overall Record: 23-6
Conference Record: 16-1
Non=Conference Record: 7-4
RPI: 44
Worst Loss (by RPI): 138 Western Michigan
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 29 Ohio State, 48 Virginia Tech, 56 Xavier
Significant Losses (100+RPI): 138 Western Michigan
Record vs. Top-25 RPI: 0-1
Record vs. Top-50 RPI: 1-3
Record vs. Top-100 RPI: 4-4
Last 10 Matches: 8-2
Remaining Matches: at Dayton
Notes: Ohio lost its last two matchss, and has just one top 50 victory. I think they sit out come Sunday, but not entirely sure.
Missouri Valley
Illinois State
--------------
Overall Record: 24-5
Conference Record: 18-0
Non=Conference Record: 8-5
RPI: 37
Worst Loss (by RPI): 106 Missouri
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 29 Ohio State
Significant Losses (100+RPI): 106 Missouri
Record vs. Top-25 RPI: 0-1
Record vs. Top-50 RPI: 1-2
Record vs. Top-100 RPI: 9-4
Last 10 Matches: 9-0
Remaining Matches: mvc championship
Notes: Don't lose!
Mountain West
UNLV
----
Overall Record: 26-7
Conference Record: 14-4
Non=Conference Record: 12-3
RPI: 57
Worst Loss (by RPI): 115 Boise State
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 16 Colorado State, 32 Western Kentucky, 55 Seton Hall
Significant Losses (100+RPI): 115 Boise State
Record vs. Top-25 RPI: 1-2
Record vs. Top-50 RPI: 2-4
Record vs. Top-100 RPI: 5-6
Last 10 Matches: 8-2
Notes: Loss to Boise St. may have ended season, but it probably came when they lost at home v Wyoming.
SEC
LSU
--------------
Overall Record: 18-8
Conference Record: 13-4
Non=Conference Record: 5-4
RPI: 38
Worst Loss (by RPI): 230 Mississippi State
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 15 Kentucky, 19 Texas A&M
Significant Losses (100+RPI): 230 Mississippi State
Record vs. Top-25 RPI: 2-3
Record vs. Top-50 RPI: 2-6
Record vs. Top-100 RPI: 8-6
Last 10 Matches: 8-1
Remaining Matches: at South Carolina
Notes: Is @ SCAR a play-in match? Only two wins for LSU - but they're very good!
Sun Belt
Arkansas-Little Rock (UALR)
---------------------------
Overall Record: 28-4
Conference Record: 20-0
Non=Conference Record: 6-4
RPI: 36
Worst Loss (by RPI): 48 Pacific
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 28 Miami
Significant Losses (100+RPI): NONE
Record vs. Top-25 RPI: 0-1
Record vs. Top-50 RPI: 1-4
Record vs. Top-100 RPI: 7-4
Last 10 Matches: 9-1 or 10-0
Remaining Matches: Sun Belt Tournament Champ
Notes: Six wins come from teams ranked 50-100 in RPI. UALR's resume is going to very sketchy if they lose. Just win, plz.
Big West
Cal State Northridge
--------------------
Overall Record: 19-8
Conference Record: 10-5
Non=Conference Record: 9-3
RPI: 40
Worst Loss (by RPI): 121 UCSB, 136 UC Davis
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 30 Hawaii, 36 UALR, 32 Western Kentucky, 42 San Diego, 57 UNLV(X2)
Significant Losses (100+RPI): 121 UCSB, 136 UC Davis
Record vs. Top-25 RPI: 0-5
Record vs. Top-50 RPI: 4-6
Record vs. Top-100 RPI: 6-6
Last 10 Matches: 6-3
Remaining Matches: (UCI)
Notes: A bid is not guaranteed for Cal St. Northridge, but if they lose to UC Irvine I think they are OUT..
Hawaii
------
Overall Record: 20-6
Conference Record: 12-3
Non=Conference Record: 8-3
RPI: 30
Worst Loss (by RPI): 40 CSUN
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 44 Ohio, 40 Cal State Northridge
Significant Losses (100+RPI): NONE
Record vs. Top-25 RPI: 0-4
Record vs. Top-50 RPI: 2-6
Record vs. Top-100 RPI: 3-6
Last 10 Matches: 7-1
Remaining Matches: UCR, UC Davis
Notes: Hawaii needs to win out. if they do, they should be in. But not by too much.
PAC-12
Arizona State
-------------
Overall Record: 19-13
Conference Record: 9-11
Non=Conference Record: 10-2
RPI: 41
Worst Loss (by RPI): 97 Louisville
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 8 Oregon, 17 UCLA, 23 USC, 24 Colorado, 30 Hawaii, 44 Ohio, 46 Utah
Significant Losses (100+RPI): 97 Louisville
Record vs. Top-25 RPI: 4-7
Record vs. Top-50 RPI: 7-11
Record vs. Top-100 RPI: 7-12
Last 10 Matches: 4-6
Oregon State
-------------
Overall Record: 18-12
Conference Record: 8-11
Non=Conference Record: 10-1
RPI: 35
Worst Loss (by RPI): 50 Michigan State
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 8 Oregon 23 USC, 25 Long Beach State, 41 Arizona State(x2), 46 Utah, 48 Pacific, 54 Michigan
Significant Losses (100+RPI): NONE
Record vs. Top-25 RPI: 2-10
Record vs. Top-50 RPI: 6-11
Record vs. Top-100 RPI: 7-11
Last 10 Matches: 5-5
Notes: OSU is IN! They were up 20-4 on Oregon at one point. Oregon State? can they make some noise in the NCAAs?
Utah
----
Overall Record: 17-12
Conference Record: 7-11
Non=Conference Record: 6-10
RPI: 46
Worst Loss (by RPI): 113 Washington State
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 4 Washington, 8 Oregon, 17 UCLA, 23 USC, 24 Colorado, 31 Lipscomb, 41 Arizona State
Significant Losses (100+RPI): 113 Washington State
Record vs. Top-25 RPI: 5-7
Record vs. Top-50 RPI: 7-11
Record vs. Top-100 RPI: 6-11
Last 10 Matches: 7-3
Notes: Gotta LOVE UTAH! They are HOT! Winning seven of their last 8, including beating Washington, USC, UCLA, Colorado, Oregon.. wow!
WCC
Loyola Marymount
----------------
Overall Record: 23-6
Conference Record: 11-7
Non=Conference Record: 12-0
RPI: 39
Worst Loss (by RPI): 86 Gonzaga
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 17 UCLA, 25 Long Beach State, 45 Santa Clara, 42 San Diego, 62 LIU Brooklyn
Significant Losses (100+RPI): NONE
Record vs. Top-25 RPI: 2-1
Record vs. Top-50 RPI: 4-5
Record vs. Top-100 RPI: 7-6
Last 10 Matches: 6-4
Remaining Matches: (BYU)
Notes: Can't leave LMU out - undefeated non-conference with wins over UCLA & LBSU, two other top-50 victories to make it 4. They should be in, but it's surprising to see them finish 5th in the WCC. Pacific will be pretty ticked off if they get left out.
Pacific
-------
Overall Record: 24-7
Conference Record: 13-5
Non=Conference Record: 11-2
RPI: 48
Worst Loss (by RPI): 45 Santa Clara
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI: 39 LMU(x2), 36 UALR, 45 Santa Clara,
Significant Losses (100+RPI): NONE
Record vs. Top-25 RPI: 0-2
Record vs. Top-50 RPI: 4-7
Record vs. Top-100 RPI: 6-7
Last 10 Matches: 9-1
Remaining Matches:
Notes: I think Pacific's resume is missing one more top-50 victory, but they could still get in with this. They have no losses outside the top-50, and they are 9-1 in their last 10 matches! SMU, UALR, and Illinois State with such a strong finish.
Santa Clara
-----------
Overall Record: 22-9
Conference Record: 12-6
Non=Conference Record: 10-3
RPI: 45
Worst Loss (by RPI): 121 UCSB, 143 Pepperdine, 148 San Francisco
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 21 Duke, 20 BYU, 39 LMU, 42 San Diego(x2), 48 Pacific,
Significant Losses (100+RPI): 148 San Francisco, 121 UCSB, 143 Pepperdine
Record vs. Top-25 RPI: 2-2
Record vs. Top-50 RPI: 6-4
Record vs. Top-100 RPI: 8-6
Last 10 Matches: 7-3
Remaining Matches: Saint Mary's
Notes: Have to like SIX top-50 victories, will it be off-set by three sub-100 losses? They did beat USDx2, BYU, LMU, and Pacific. 5-3 against the top 4 WCC teams.
San Diego
---------
Overall Record: 19-11
Conference Record: 12-6
Non=Conference Record: 7-5
RPI: 42
Worst Loss (by RPI): 148 San Francisco, 163 Saint Mary's
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 20 BYU, 38 LSU, 39 Loyola Marymount, 48 Pacific(X2), 64 Northwestern
Significant Losses (100+RPI): 148 San Francisco, 163 Saint Mary's
Record vs. Top-25 RPI: 1-4
Record vs. Top-50 RPI: 5-9
Record vs. Top-100 RPI: 7-9
Last 10 Matches: 6-4
Remaining Matches: at Pepperdine
Notes: San Diego was inconsistent all season, do they have enough on their resume to get in? I think so.
Predicted 2014 NCAA Tournament Bracket
*Will fill this in soon, after a few more AQ's are determined to make it less work, but also more realistic
Regional
(1) Stanford vs. Cal State Bakersfield
Santa Clara (or Pacific) vs. Cal State Northridge
(16) TBA vs. (T) Hofstra
(T) San Diego vs. (T) Arizona State
(8) Penn State vs. Dayton
Yale vs. American
(9) Illinois vs. Western Michigan
Illinois State vs. Lipscomb
Regional
(4) Washington vs. (T) New Hampshire
(T) Hawaii vs. (T) Pacific
(13) Kansas vs. (T) LIU Brooklyn
(T) Duke vs. (T) UCLA
(5) North Carolina vs. Hampton
(T) Arizona vs. Coastal Carolina
(12) Colorado State vs. Northern Colorado (or Denver)
Colorado vs. (T) Oklahoma
Regional
(3) Wisconsin vs. (T) Oakland
(T) LSU vs. Marquette
(14) Kentucky vs. Murray State
Western Kentucky vs. Ohio State
(6) Florida State vs. Alabama State
Alabama vs. (T) Southern California
(11) Nebraska vs. Samford
Creighton vs. Kansas State
Regional
(2) Texas vs. Northwestern State
Texas A&M vs. (T) Oregon St
(15) BYU vs. (T) Denver
Utah vs. (T) UALR
(10) Oregon vs. (T) Siena
(T) Long Beach State vs. (T) Loyola Marymount
(7) Florida vs. Jacksonville
Miami(FL) vs. UCF
Conference breakdown as of 11/24 (not updated)
Atlantic 10
George Washington fought hard during the 2014 A-10 tournament, but they came up short as they just couldn't overcome a good Dayton team. George Washington swept Saint Louis is the semifinals, and did so without their leading outside hitter. Dayton will advance to the NCAA Tournament.
Champions: Dayton
Big Sky
Northern Colorado was pushed to the brink by Northern Arizona, but they escaped that match in five sets and used that momentum to beat Idaho State for the second straight time in Pocatello, Idaho. Northern Colorado bounces the 2013 Big Sky Champions on their home court and advances to the NCAA Tournament.
Champions: Northern Colorado
Big South
Wow. Liberty just absolutely falls apart at the end of the season. Looking to be the #1 seed and regular season Big South Champion, they fall apart and actually get bounced in the Quarterfinals of their conference tournament. Would have been nice to see Jade Vorster (Hawaii transfer) back in the NCAAs. But no disrespect to a team I cautioned to watch out for -- #6 High Point. They SWEPT Liberty. High Point eventually lost to host- #2 Coastal Carolina.
That host school, Coastal Carolina then pulled the upset over favorited #1 Radford to advance to the NCAA tournament. It took a 16-14 5th set to swing their way on their home court, but they did it. Radford was pushed to five sets by #4 Winthrop, before losing to Coastal Carolina.
Champions: Coastal Carolina
Colonial
#6 James Madison upset #3 Towson, but then lost to #2 Hofstra. That set up a #2 vs. #1 Hofstra vs. College of Charleston.
It was an absolute battle. Scores: 24-26, 25-27, 25-19, 26-24, 8-15. The Pride receive the NCAA tournament auto bid.
Champions: Hofstra
Horizon
The #1 seed and favorite Oakland won its two games in the Horizon tournament, sweeping the floor with Youngstown State before playing a tough match against Milwaukee, escaping with a 26-24 fourth set victory, and a 3-1 match victory. Milwaukee was the defending Horizon league champions.
Champions: Oakland
Ivy
Yale couldn't beat Harvard in two meetings earlier this season, and if Harvard hadn't lost to two other Ivy League teams, the Crimson would be in the NCAA's. But a regular season tie forced a tie-break Ivy playoff match at Harvard. Yale finally got things to go their way as they swept Harvard. Yale is BACK, yet again, in the NCAA's
Champions: Yale
Metro Atlantic
No upsets on the first day of the MAAC Tournament, but I warned those to watch out for Niagra. The purple eagles were down 0-2 to Manhattan, but they rallied back only to unfortunately lose the 5th set (13-15) to #3 Manhattan. The other team that deserves a shotout from the MAAC is #8 seed Iona. Iona won its opening match of the tournament against #9 Saint Peters, but had to play another match just a few hours later against the #1 seed Marist. Iona pushed Marist to the brink, only to lose in 5 sets.
Catrina Warren posted 30 kills on 84 swings and 42 digs over two games (3-0 win, 2-3 loss to #1 Marist)
In the Finals, it was #2 Siena who pulled the upset over #1 Marist. The Saints grab the automatic bid to the NCAA tournament!
Champions: Siena
Mid Eastern
One of the nations top scorers over the past couple years, Vendula Strakova has led Hampton back to the MEAC Championship and will try to help the Pirates to a second straight NCAA Tournament appearance. Hampton swept Howard, but it wasn't that easy. (25-23, 25-22, 28-26)
Champions: Hampton
Ohio Valley
No major upsets here, #1 Murray State sweeps #2 Belmont in the Championship to advance to the NCAA Tournament. Eastern Illinois (#6 seed) did upset (#3) Eastern Kentucky in the quarterfinals before falling to Belmont.
Champions: Murray State
Southern
No. 7 Chattanooga almost pulled a major upset over No.2 Samford, but fell in the 5th set.
My dark-horse pick #6 Mercer jumped out to a 2 sets to none over host #3 UNC Greensoboro, but UNCG pushed the match to five sets. In the fifth set, Mercer was down 2-7, but STORMED back to tie the game at 10 all. Only to see #3 UNCG win the match 15-12 in 5 sets.
The Championship Match is underway right now, tied at 1 set a piece.
My money's on Furman.
Championship Finals // Monday, November 24 // Fleming Gym // UNCG // Greensboro, N.C.
6:00 p.m. (Furman/WCU) vs. (UNCG/Samford) ESPN3
Champions: (Furman/Samford)
Southland
I thought it would be #3 Texas A&M Corpus Christi who would make some noise in the Southland Tournament. They were swept by #2 Central Arkansas. The major upset of the tournament came when #5 Northwestern State pulled off the stunner against Undefeated in Southland regular season play #1 Stephen F. Austin. The tournament was hosted by Northwestern State, so not a huge surprise, but still you had to favor Stephen F. Austin.
Then, the championship game was set for a rematch of 2013. Northwestern State vs. Central Arkansas. The Demons lost an absolute heartbreaker last season to Central Arkansas, after being up 2 sets to none. This year, Northwestern State was not going to let it happen again. For a second one might have thought that it was going to be a repeat of last year, as Northwestern State was up 2 sets to none, but they came out on fire to SWEEP UCA. (25-23, 25-18, 25-17)
Champions: Northwestern State
SWAC
Alabama State made NCAA-history on Sunday (I think). Alabama State went 2-1 on its first day of the SWAC tournament. They won their first match against Prairie View A&M, then lost to Jackson State in five sets, but finished the day beating Alabama A&M.
On day two, Alabama State needed to win FOUR matches to advance to the NCAA's. They did it!
3-0 vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff (10am)
3-0 vs. Jackson State (1pm)
3-1 vs. Southern (5pm)
3-0 vs. Southern (Championship) (7:20pm)
Alabama State was playing volleyball from 10am, up until 9pm. Insane. But they return to the NCAA tournament. Congratulations!
Champions: Alabama State
American Athletic Conference
Poor Temple. Temple was in sole possession of 2nd place this weekend, but lost to both Temple and Southern Methodist to put a 3-way tie for 2nd place. The only school from the AAC that is guaranteed to make the NCAA tournament is the AAC Champion: UCF.
Tulsa and SMU are in consideration for an at-large bid. Temple, with its two losses this weekend, I think their season comes to an end. Have to feel for them but they have had a great season.
Tulsa and Southern Methodist are at-large candidates but they are outside the bubble. They play each other on Wednesday. Tulsa is an interesting case. they started 0-4 in conference play. They lost to USF, UCF, Cincy, and Memphis. But since then, tulsa is 14-1. Tulsa's only loss came to Temple on the road, but they just avenged that loss. Tulsa beat Southern Methodist in Oklahoma this season, but I think to get an NCAA bid they are going to have to do it in Dallas too. Even if they do, I don't think they are guaranteed a bid. You have to be pretty ticked off if you're Tulsa and finish 23-8, 2nd in the AAC, 15-5 in conference and just miss the NCAA tournament for the second straight year. My beef with Tulsa is their performance up until mid-conference play looks very sketchy. They lost to Northern Arizona, barely escaped boise st. in five, but they did take sets off Minnesota and Iowa State to show they were competitive. Their signature victories are over UCF and (if they can beat SMU again, then) SMU(x2).
Champions: UCF
Atlantic Sun
UPSET!!! #3 Jacksonville advances to the NCAA Tournament with a stunning upset over #1 Lipscomb!
This makes things dicey for Lipscomb. I was worried about Northern Kentucky or FGCU potentially pulling the upset, Jacksonville was a surprise. Nonetheless, I am not too sold on Lipscomb. They are certainly on the bubble. They are rooting for USC to not make the NCAA tournament, and rooting for UALR / Illinois State to handle their business in their conference tournaments.
Champions: Jacksonville
Big East
Big East Tournament Bracket set:
#1 Creighton vs. #4 Xavier
#3 Marquette vs. #2 Seton Hall
Butler put together a nice season, but it comes to an end this weekend. Tough to chew on for Butler. Creighton and Marquette are locks to the NCAA tournament.
My favorite to win the conference tournament is Seton Hall. Seton Hall is 4-2 against the Big East tournament field, with two wins over #1 Creighton, but splitting with Marquette and Xavier. Surprisingly, Seton Hall's last two losses came to Xavier and Butler, matches played in South Orange. So don't count out Xavier, but Xavier has not been able to beat Creighton or Marquette this season. The Big East tournament could be a shocker, and Seton Hall may have a case for the NCAA's, but still outside the bubble. They could beat Marquette and lose in the final, which could warrant bubble consideration. Either way it will be interesting to see it play out. Seton Hall beat Creighton on the road, and Marquette at home.
Conference USA
UTSA was undefeated in conference play until late in the season, but two late-season losses end their season. They lost to North Texas in one of the last C-USA games, and then my dark-horse pick #4 Rice pulled the upset over UTSA to advance to the Championship.
No more upsets for Rice though, as Western Kentucky handles business and will advance to the NCAA tournament! (Remember, last season Western Kentucky was stunned by Troy, preventing the Hilltoppers from going to the NCAA's)
Champions: Western Kentucky
Mid-American
Sigh. I don't even want to talk about Ohio.
#5 seeded Western Michigan was able to beat #4 Ball State, which put them in the MAC Semifinals against Ohio. Ohio is firmly a bubble team with a sketchy resume. Ohio was up 2 sets to none over WMU, but the team from Kalamazoo fought back and won in five sets. They won the third set 25-23, fourth set 25-23, and the fifth 16-14.
Wow. Ohio bounced in the semifinals, are they going to get into the NCAA's?? I'm not so sure.... Miami (OH) will take on Western Michigan to advance to the NCAA tournament in a match played tonight... (the game is LIVE now, 4:30pm Pacific)
Champions: Western Michigan or Miami(OH)
Missouri Valley
MVC Volleyball Championship Schedule
Thursday, November 27
Quarterfinal #1 – No. 4 Missouri State vs. No. 5 Southern Illinois, 5 PM
Quarterfinal #2 – No. 3 Wichita State vs. No. 6 Indiana State, 7:30 PM
Friday, November 28
Semifinal #1 – No. 1 Illinois State vs. Winner MSU/SIU, 5 PM
Semifinal #2 – No. 2 UNI vs. Winner WSU/INS, 7:30 PM
Saturday, November 29
Championship Match – Semifinal #1 Winner vs. Semifinal #2 Winner, 4 PM
Illinois State, the undefeated regular season champions of the MVC, will have their hands full in the semifinals if Missouri State gets there. The Bears fell in five sets to Illinois State in their last match, and will certainly test the Redbirds. Wichita State / Northern Iowa could also be potential champions. Will be an interesting tournament... Illinois State plays the Championship just hours before the selections are released.. will be very interesting to see if the committee considers them as an at-large should they be upset. We've already seen Ohio and Lipscomb go down.. Only Western Kentucky has survived.. UALR & Ill. St will play this week.
Mountain West
There are too many good bubble candidates for UNLV to have a shot at a bid. Unfortunately for them, their season comes to an end. Even if they weren't stunned by Boise St. this weekend, I still have UNLV OUT.
Wyoming even if they beat Colorado State this week, you are OUT. That is the only good victory for Wyoming with a #69 RPI as of right now. Sorry!
Colorado St should host, with Northern Colorado & Colorado joining them for the first and second rounds!
Champions: Colorado St
Northeast
LIU Brooklyn is back in the NCAA's, and they may be better than ever. They've won some big games this season (Sparty, Western Kentucky) but they wouldn't have warranted an at-large bid if they were upset in Conference tournament. They were able to handle Robert Morris, and they may be a test in the first round depending on the opponent.
Champions: LIU Brooklyn
Patriot
American is dancing again in the NCAA'S! They beat Lehigh, who had just beat American a couple weeks ago. American hopes to pull off an upset after the run they gave Texas!
Champions: American
Summit
No real surprises, #2 IUPUI vs. #1 Denver in the Championship game. I thought South Dakota would make a run, but they were swept by IUPUI.
In the Championship game, Denver was pushed to the brink, but still swept IUPUI (32-30, 25-19, 26-24) to win the Championship. IUPUI gave it all and the sweep over South Dakota puts a nice finish to their season.
Champions: Denver
Sun Belt
2014 Sun Belt Conference Volleyball Tournament
Thursday, November 27
MATCH 1 - 12 p.m. CT – No. 8 South Alabama vs. No. 1 UALR
MATCH 2 – 2:30 p.m. CT – No. 5 Appalachian State vs. No. 4 UT Arlington
MATCH 3 - 5 p.m. CT – No. 6 UL Lafayette vs. No. 3 Arkansas State
MATCH 4 – 7:30 p.m. CT – No. 7 Georgia State. No. 2 Texas State*
Friday, November 28
MATCH 5 - 4 p.m. CT - Match 1 Winner vs. Match 2 Winner
MATCH 6 – 6:30 p.m. CT – Match 3 Winner vs. Match 4 Winner
Championship Saturday, November 29
MATCH 7 - 1 p.m. CT – Match 5 Winner vs. Match 6 Winner (Broadcast Live on ESPN3
Dark-Horse: #2 Texas State, host squad
UALR: You better not lose. If you do, despite your victory over Miami (who could finish top-25, imagine that..), you are OUT.
WAC
Cal State Bakersfield wins the 2014 WAC tournament and advances to the NCAA Tournament!
Shoutout for Seattle who rallied from a 5th-set 10-14 deficit to beat No. 4 Utah Valley, then rallied to beat No. 1 UMKC in 5 sets. Their luck ran out as they were swept by host CSUB.
Champions: Cal State Bakersfield
Big West
Long Beach State has got the best team they have had in a long time. They are really really going to be a dangerous team to wherever they get sent... (UCLA?) Sad they can't be hosting, but just outside of RPI range and not a good enough resume to compensate.
Hawaii and Northridge. Strangely, for over a month, Hawaiis RPI has stayed the same. They are for at least the 3rd week straight, ranked #30. Since they have that cushion, I think they are in the NCAA's. But their overall resume is not that good.
Cal state Northridge is in more trouble. Even though CSUN has a better resume, Hawaii has the better RPI. Unfortunately, we know what the committee thinks about RPI.
CSUN concerns me because they have some bad losses. When you look at Hawaii and you look at who they lost to, you can't really fault them. They lost to Pac-12 schools, LBSU(x2), and once to Northridge. All NCAA-tournament teams unless Northridge gets left out.
I'm not sure if CSUN is in as I'm writing this, so let me think for a little bit.
Champions: Long Beach State
West Coast Conference
Well, one things certain, BYU is returning to the NCAA tournament. They stunned Hawaii on the island last year, and will try to make a run in the NCAA's this year. My favorite player from BYU last year was not Alexa Gray, it was their middle Kathryn Lecheminant(sp?). She was a dominant middle that ate up #6 Southern California in the first set of the NCAA Regional Semifinals, but I remember her not getting many opportunities after that. BYU fell 3-1 to USC to end a very good season for the Cougars. BYU wrapped up the WCC Championship this season, and that's it for certainties in the WCC.
One Question: (In or Out)
Four Teams:
Loyola Marymount
Santa Clara
San Diego
Pacific
If only one of those four get in, I say its a travesty. If two out of four get in, I'll have to live with it. I think three of four should get in, and maybe even all four!
LMU's resume is the best out of all the bubble teams. And by best I mean, best RPI, best wins, best in my personal opinion if we throw out me predicting what the NCAA is going to do, but I will admit I am bias and am a fan and do attend some LMU matches. Nonetheless, I think they are the safest WCC team.
Pacific beat LMU twice, but they only have a win over Santa Clara & UALR to support that - will that be enough?
San Diego is inconsistent and has a bad loss, but they do have a decent amount of wins to make me think that they are still safe.
Santa Clara good wins, but bad losses. Inconsistent, again. I really think all four teams should be in, but we'll take a deeper look below.
Champions: BYU
ACC
So long that North Carolina beats Duke this weekend, they should be ACC Champions. That's no guarantee, Duke is vulnerable but very good. Florida State could be the only other potential Champion, but I don't see Wake Forest beating UNC, so I think it's UNC's Championship.
We know UNC, FSU, and Duke are getting bids to the NCAA tournament. But will (or should) Miami, Pittsburgh, Virginia, and Virginia Tech get in? Maybe at least one? I don't know.
The committee is going to be tested on how important RPI is. Miami(FL) is such a tough case. They can shut me up, and alot of other critics, if they beat Florida State this weekend. My beef is there are too many other good teams out there for Miami to squeeze in solely based on RPI. Yeah sure, you beat Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech, and Virginia, but are those even NCAA teams? Pacific, Purdue, Michigan State, Tulsa, Santa Clara, Utah, and even UNLV/UVA/VTech have better resume's based on big victories than Miami does. Miami probably won't end up with a sub-100 loss though, so that helps in their favor.
The resumes are listed below.
Big Ten
The B1G Championship is going to come down to whether Wisconsin handles its last weekend or not. If not, Penn State is still alive in the hope. What does it really matter, though.
Wisconsin, PSU, Illinois, Nebraska and Ohio State are NCAA-Tournament teams.
Purdue, Michigan State, and Minnesota are the best three candidates for at-larges.
Northwestern has drifted too far in RPI, and Michigan is ineligible for the NCAA tournament.
Champions: Wisconsin or Penn State
Big 12
Baylor is ineligible for the NCAA Tournament. Texas wins the auto-bid. Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, and Oklahoma are at-large bids. Only question is who gets a seed?
Congratulations to Baylor for a couple top-25 victories. I expect them to be better next year, and maybe get back on track and make the NCAA tournament. (A couple years ago, Baylor was very close to the NCAA tournament but a last minute Southern Methodist lost turned Baylor from one of the last teams in the tournament, to one of the last teams out.)
Champions: Texas
SEC
Florida wins the SEC. l
LSU is still a bubble team. They are 38 in RPI. If they lose to South Carolina this week, I think LSU may be out. But they have wins over Texas A&M and Kentucky. They have losses to Central Arkansas and a gut-wrenching loss to 200+ RPI Mississippi State (7-22) at the time. Right now though, I think LSU is in..
Champions: Florida
PAC-12
Last but not least, the conference that may get the most bids.
Stanford, Oregon, UW look to definitely be seeded.
UCLA and Arizona are hoping they get a seed.
Colorado, Arizona State, Oregon State, Utah are hoping to get at-large bids and are all NCAA-eligible. I would rank them in that order for most likely at-large bid to least-likely at-large bid.
The big questions are will Utah get a bid?
And can my beloved Women of Troy get their act together? I can't fathom missing the NCAA tournament, but what happened to my crosstown rivals last season may be a crushing, humbling fate for the South LA's volleyball team. USC is going to have to beat either Arizona or UCLA on the road. As a fan, I have to think it is going to happen. But on paper it looks like a big uphill climb. Arizona looks vulnerable right now, and I think that is SC's best chance. (Can someone tell me the status of Snuka) I am a BIG Snuka fan, and I hope that she is 100% (after the USC match) because with her and Kingdon I can see U of A making a run in the NCAA's.
Champions: Stanford (95% chance) or Washington
updated: 11/28
Your Complete guide to the 2014 NCAA tournament.
RPI Rankings as of (11/24)
I will finalize this after last day of regular season (tomorrow) (11/29) and let you know what's going to happen on Selection Sunday. (11/30)
The committee will use an updated RPI generated as all the matches have concluded, but they've already started working on the bracket.
2013 Trojan Bracketology
2012 Trojan Bracketology
32 Automatic Qualifiers (11/24 RPI ranking in parentheses)
(Conference Breakdown & Standings at bottom of page)
(Teams in GREEN have clinched NCAA-automatic bids via Conference Championship)
(Teams in WHITE are projected conference winners)
Only at-large bids at risk are: Illinois State & UALR in their conference tournaments.
ACC – North Carolina (6)
America East – New Hampshire (207)
AAC –UCF (33)
Atlantic 10 – Dayton (66)
Atlantic Sun – Jacksonville (141)
Big 10 – Wisconsin (5)
Big 12 – Texas (2)
Big East – Creighton (34)
Big Sky – Northern Colorado (74)
Big South – Coastal Carolina (65)
Big West – Long Beach State (25)
Colonial – Hofstra (93)
Conference USA – Western Kentucky (32)
Horizon – Oakland (108)
Ivy – Yale (67)
MAAC – Siena (189)
MAC – Western Michigan
MEAC – Hampton (167)
MVC – Illinois State (37)
MWC – Colorado State (16)
NEC – LIU Brooklyn (62)
OVC – Murray State (114)
Pac-12 – Stanford (1)
Patriot – American (76)
SEC – Florida (7)
SoCon – Samford (137)
Southland – Northwestern St (226)
Summit – Denver (77)
Sun Belt – UALR (36)
SWAC – Alabama State (273)
WAC – Cal State Bakersfield (200)
WCC – BYU (20)
32 At-Large Bids
(sorted in order of RPI)
Orange teams are locks (or everything but locks) to NCAA tournament.
Blue teams have eligibility issues.
Yellow teams are firmly on the bubble and every game is vital.
Illinois State and UALR will be on the bubble if they lose their conference tournaments.
Lipscomb and Ohio lost their conference tournaments and are in trouble.
I notoriously change at least one or two of the last-four in on the last day of the season, but I would expect this to be very close to the 64 seen in the tournament field on Sunday.
(3) Florida State
(4) Washington
(8) Oregon
(9) Illinois
(10) Penn State
(11) Nebraska
(12) Iowa State
(13) Arizona
(14) Kansas
(15) Kentucky
(17) UCLA
(18) Kansas State
(19) Texas A&M
(21) Duke
(22) Oklahoma
(23) Southern California
(24) Colorado
(26) Marquette
(27) Alabama
(28) Miami(FL)
(29) Ohio State
(30) Hawaii
(31) Lipscomb
(35) Oregon St
(38) LSU
(39) Loyola Marymount
(40) CSUN
(41) Arizona State
(42) San Diego
(45) Santa Clara
(46) Utah
(48) Pacific
Other serious at-large contenders:
(43) Southern Methodist
(44) Ohio
(47) Virginia Tech
(49) Minnesota
(50) Michigan State
(51) Pittsburgh
(52) Tulsa
(53) Michigan - ineligible
(54) Purdue
(55) Seton Hall
(56) Xavier
(57) UNLV
(59) Virginia
(61) Temple
(64) Northwestern
Honorable Mention (just outside consideration for At-Larges)
(58) Baylor (ineligible)
(60) George Washington
(63) Ole Miss
(69) Wyoming
At-Large Bids per Conference:
ACC: 3
AAC: 0
A-SUN: 1
Big East: 1
Big 10: 4
Big 12: 4
Big West: 2
Pac-12: 9
SEC: 4
WCC: 4
Highest RPI as of Today excluded from the NCAA tournament:
43 Southern Methodist
Last Four In: 48 Pacific, 46 Utah, 42 San Diego, 40 CSUN
Last Four Out: 47 Virginia Tech, 50 Michigan State, 54 Purdue, 43 Southern Methodist
Next Four Out: 44 Ohio, 49 Minnesota, 51 Pittsburgh, 52 Tulsa
I will add in commentary why I chose those bubble teams in or out, but here are the below credentials so you guys can argue discuss, and critique potential teams. All results as of matches played by 11/28, all RPI rankings as of 11/24.
List of All 2014 NCAA Bubble Teams Credentials
Note: Michigan and Southern California were not included in this list. Michigan did not finish eligible for the NCAA Tournament, and should USC finish eligible, they will be in the NCAA Tournament.
AAC
Southern Methodist
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Overall Record: 26-6
Conference Record: 15-5
Non=Conference Record: 11-1
RPI: 43
Worst Loss (by RPI): 148 San Francisco
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 22 Oklahoma 52 Tulsa 61 Temple
Significant Losses (100+RPI): 148 San Francisco
Record vs. Top-25 RPI: 1-0
Record vs. Top-50 RPI: 1-3
Record vs. Top-100 RPI: 7-5
Last 10 Matches: 9-1
Notes: SMU has won 10 of their last 11, only loss to UCF. They beat all of the AAC teams outside of the top 5. Their only losses were to (Temple, UCF(x2), Tulsa, Memphis) only OOC loss was to San Francisco. Now that i think about it, SMU looks pretty decent but I'm really not sold on only one top 50 win.... Tulsa likely won't finish Top-50..
Tulsa
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Overall Record: 21-9
Conference Record: 13-5
Non=Conference Record: 8-4
RPI: 52
Worst Loss (by RPI): 158 South Florida
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 33 UCF, 43 Southern Methodist, 61 Temple
Significant Losses (100+RPI): 120 Northern Arizona, 158 USF, 150 Cincinatti
Record vs. Top-25 RPI: 0-1
Record vs. Top-50 RPI: 2-3
Record vs. Top-100 RPI: 5-5
Last 10 Matches: 8-1
Remaining Matches: (@ecu)
Notes: Tulsa is OUT - but they had a chance against SMU. Even if they won out, it was hard to let them in, but it might have kicked SMU out.
ACC
Virginia Tech
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Overall Record: 17-14
Conference Record: 10-8
Non=Conference Record: 7-6
RPI: 47
Worst Loss (by RPI): 164 Belmont
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 9 Illinois, 21 Duke, 51 Pittsburgh(x2)
Significant Losses (100+RPI): 142 Wake Forest, 164 Belmont, 113 Washington State
Record vs. Top-25 RPI: 2-5
Record vs. Top-50 RPI: 2-6
Record vs. Top-100 RPI: 10-9
Last 10 Matches: 8-2
Notes: Virginia Tech has two really good wins over Illinois and Duke, and also beat Pittsburgh twice. Since Virginia Tech has a better RPI, I'm going to lean with them as a better candidate than Pittsburgh. My concern is that they have three bad losses. If Virginia Tech had beaten Miami, I would be more confident in putting them in. Right now, Virginia Tech is OUT.
Pittsburgh
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Overall Record: 25-6
Conference Record: 13-5
Non=Conference Record: 12-1
RPI: 51
Worst Loss (by RPI): 48 Virginia Tech(x2)
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 21 Duke, 59 Virginia, 62 LIU Brooklyn
Significant Losses (100+RPI): NONE
Record vs. Top-25 RPI: 1-3
Record vs. Top-50 RPI: 1-4
Record vs. Top-100 RPI: 6-6
Last 10 Matches: 7-3
Notes: Not seeing Pitt get in with only one win - even though it's a top-25 win. They needed to beat Miami, a good record and solid season for Pitt... play bigger names next season!
Miami (FL)
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Overall Record: 21-8
Conference Record: 14-4
Non=Conference Record: 7-4
RPI: 28
Worst Loss (by RPI): 88 TCU
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 47 Virginia Tech, 51 Pittsburgh, 55 Seton Hall, 59 Virginia,
Significant Losses (100+RPI): (if any, TCU)
Record vs. Top-25 RPI: 0-5
Record vs. Top-50 RPI: 1-6
Record vs. Top-100 RPI: 7-8
Last 10 Matches: 8-2
Notes: Miami is probably in. They didn't lose to anyone outside Top 100, but they only have one-top 50 win and they are barely going to be in there. Pittsburgh I don't think is climbing into top-50 range, but there is a chance Seton Hall may finish top-50.
A-SUN
Lipscomb
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Overall Record: 21-8
Conference Record: 14-2
Non=Conference Record: 7-6
RPI: 31
Worst Loss (by RPI): 110 Northern Kentucky, 135 Georgia Tech, 141 Jacksonville
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 14 Kansas, 37 Illinois State
Significant Losses (100+RPI): 110 Northern Kentucky, 135 Georgia Tech, 141 Jacksonville
Record vs. Top-25 RPI: 1-1
Record vs. Top-50 RPI: 2-4
Record vs. Top-100 RPI: 5-5
Last 10 Matches: 8-2
Notes: Lipscomb will be sweatin in their church clothes on Sunday. What's saving them is they have two top-50 wins. The win over Illinois State may be enough to help their Kansas loss not look like a fluke. An 8-2 finish, pretty solid RPI, two top-50 wins, i'll take it.. Their resume looks better than Hawaii and Miami except when you consider bad losses. I think 150+ losses are worse, and 200+ losses are the ones that Kill.... I say Lipscomb IN.
BIG 10
Purdue
------
Overall Record: 22-10
Conference Record: 12-8
Non=Conference Record: 10-2
RPI: 54
Worst Loss (by RPI): 118 Saint Louis
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 29 Ohio State, 38 LSU, 42 San Diego, 49 Minnesota, 50 Michigan State, 53 Michigan, 64 Northwestern
Significant Losses (100+RPI): 118 Saint Louis
Record vs. Top-25 RPI: 0-4
Record vs. Top-50 RPI: 4-6
Record vs. Top-100 RPI: 8-7
Last 10 Matches: 4-6
Remaining Matches: at Wisc
Notes: Purdue doesn't have any Top-25 wins, but will probably finish with four top-50 victories. Will that be enough? I see Pacific with four top-50 victories, no losses outside the top-50 RPI, and a better RPI. I think if Purdue loses to Wisconsin tonight, they are OUT.
Michigan State
--------------
Overall Record: 18-13
Conference Record: 11-9
Non=Conference Record: 7-4
RPI: 50
Worst Loss (by RPI): 62 LIU Brooklyn
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 35 Oregon State, 32 Western Kentucky, 53 Michigan, 54 Purdue 64 Northwestern
Significant Losses (100+RPI): NONE
Record vs. Top-25 RPI: 0-8
Record vs. Top-50 RPI: 2-10
Record vs. Top-100 RPI: 8-13
Last 10 Matches: 6-4
Remaining Matches: at Iowa
Notes: Sparty needs to beat Iowa and hope for the best. I think right now, Michigan State is OUT.
Minnesota
------------
Overall Record: 19-12
Conference Record: 9-11
Non=Conference Record: 10-1
RPI: 49
Worst Loss (by RPI): 112 Indiana
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 12 Iowa State, 29 Ohio State, 50 Michigan State, 52 Tulsa, 54 Purdue, 64 Northwestern
Significant Losses (100+RPI): 112 Indiana
Record vs. Top-25 RPI: 1-7
Record vs. Top-50 RPI: 4-8
Record vs. Top-100 RPI: 9-10
Last 10 Matches: 5-5
Remaining Matches: Indiana
Notes: Minnesota could have had a chance with a second win over Ohio State, and while I still think they are in contention, I think they are just out. They do have a top-25 RPI victory. They really need to beat Indiana tonight or they are definitely out.
Big East
Xavier
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Overall Record: 19-12
Conference Record: 12-7
Non=Conference Record: 7-5
RPI: 56
Worst Loss (by RPI): Missouri
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 31 Lipscomb, 37 Illinois State, 55 Seton Hall,
Significant Losses (100+RPI): Missouri
Record vs. Top-25 RPI: 0-3
Record vs. Top-50 RPI: 2-7
Record vs. Top-100 RPI: 5-10
Last 10 Matches: 7-3
Notes: Xavier pushes Creighton, but they can't come up with a win. Nice season for Xavier, and while they will not receive an NCAA-bid, I am including their resume out of respect. Three straight years, no bid for Xavier.. but they've been included on my resume list for the past three years. They have a great sophomore in Abbey Bessler. Second straight year Xavier goes down to Creighton to end their season.
Seton Hall
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Overall Record: 27-6
Conference Record: 15-3
Non=Conference Record: 12-3
RPI: 55
Worst Loss (by RPI): 75 West Virginia
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 26 Marquette(x2), 34 Creighton(x2), 56 Xavier, 62 LIU Brooklyn
Significant Losses (100+RPI): NONE
Record vs. Top-25 RPI: 2-2
Record vs. Top-50 RPI: 4-2
Record vs. Top-100 RPI: 8-6
Last 10 Matches: 9-0
Remaining Matches: Creighton
Notes: I really like Seton Hall. I think I have them in, maybe bumping off Pacific! Will have to see how things finish out.
MAC
Ohio
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Overall Record: 23-6
Conference Record: 16-1
Non=Conference Record: 7-4
RPI: 44
Worst Loss (by RPI): 138 Western Michigan
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 29 Ohio State, 48 Virginia Tech, 56 Xavier
Significant Losses (100+RPI): 138 Western Michigan
Record vs. Top-25 RPI: 0-1
Record vs. Top-50 RPI: 1-3
Record vs. Top-100 RPI: 4-4
Last 10 Matches: 8-2
Remaining Matches: at Dayton
Notes: Ohio lost its last two matchss, and has just one top 50 victory. I think they sit out come Sunday, but not entirely sure.
Missouri Valley
Illinois State
--------------
Overall Record: 24-5
Conference Record: 18-0
Non=Conference Record: 8-5
RPI: 37
Worst Loss (by RPI): 106 Missouri
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 29 Ohio State
Significant Losses (100+RPI): 106 Missouri
Record vs. Top-25 RPI: 0-1
Record vs. Top-50 RPI: 1-2
Record vs. Top-100 RPI: 9-4
Last 10 Matches: 9-0
Remaining Matches: mvc championship
Notes: Don't lose!
Mountain West
UNLV
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Overall Record: 26-7
Conference Record: 14-4
Non=Conference Record: 12-3
RPI: 57
Worst Loss (by RPI): 115 Boise State
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 16 Colorado State, 32 Western Kentucky, 55 Seton Hall
Significant Losses (100+RPI): 115 Boise State
Record vs. Top-25 RPI: 1-2
Record vs. Top-50 RPI: 2-4
Record vs. Top-100 RPI: 5-6
Last 10 Matches: 8-2
Notes: Loss to Boise St. may have ended season, but it probably came when they lost at home v Wyoming.
SEC
LSU
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Overall Record: 18-8
Conference Record: 13-4
Non=Conference Record: 5-4
RPI: 38
Worst Loss (by RPI): 230 Mississippi State
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 15 Kentucky, 19 Texas A&M
Significant Losses (100+RPI): 230 Mississippi State
Record vs. Top-25 RPI: 2-3
Record vs. Top-50 RPI: 2-6
Record vs. Top-100 RPI: 8-6
Last 10 Matches: 8-1
Remaining Matches: at South Carolina
Notes: Is @ SCAR a play-in match? Only two wins for LSU - but they're very good!
Sun Belt
Arkansas-Little Rock (UALR)
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Overall Record: 28-4
Conference Record: 20-0
Non=Conference Record: 6-4
RPI: 36
Worst Loss (by RPI): 48 Pacific
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 28 Miami
Significant Losses (100+RPI): NONE
Record vs. Top-25 RPI: 0-1
Record vs. Top-50 RPI: 1-4
Record vs. Top-100 RPI: 7-4
Last 10 Matches: 9-1 or 10-0
Remaining Matches: Sun Belt Tournament Champ
Notes: Six wins come from teams ranked 50-100 in RPI. UALR's resume is going to very sketchy if they lose. Just win, plz.
Big West
Cal State Northridge
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Overall Record: 19-8
Conference Record: 10-5
Non=Conference Record: 9-3
RPI: 40
Worst Loss (by RPI): 121 UCSB, 136 UC Davis
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 30 Hawaii, 36 UALR, 32 Western Kentucky, 42 San Diego, 57 UNLV(X2)
Significant Losses (100+RPI): 121 UCSB, 136 UC Davis
Record vs. Top-25 RPI: 0-5
Record vs. Top-50 RPI: 4-6
Record vs. Top-100 RPI: 6-6
Last 10 Matches: 6-3
Remaining Matches: (UCI)
Notes: A bid is not guaranteed for Cal St. Northridge, but if they lose to UC Irvine I think they are OUT..
Hawaii
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Overall Record: 20-6
Conference Record: 12-3
Non=Conference Record: 8-3
RPI: 30
Worst Loss (by RPI): 40 CSUN
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 44 Ohio, 40 Cal State Northridge
Significant Losses (100+RPI): NONE
Record vs. Top-25 RPI: 0-4
Record vs. Top-50 RPI: 2-6
Record vs. Top-100 RPI: 3-6
Last 10 Matches: 7-1
Remaining Matches: UCR, UC Davis
Notes: Hawaii needs to win out. if they do, they should be in. But not by too much.
PAC-12
Arizona State
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Overall Record: 19-13
Conference Record: 9-11
Non=Conference Record: 10-2
RPI: 41
Worst Loss (by RPI): 97 Louisville
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 8 Oregon, 17 UCLA, 23 USC, 24 Colorado, 30 Hawaii, 44 Ohio, 46 Utah
Significant Losses (100+RPI): 97 Louisville
Record vs. Top-25 RPI: 4-7
Record vs. Top-50 RPI: 7-11
Record vs. Top-100 RPI: 7-12
Last 10 Matches: 4-6
Oregon State
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Overall Record: 18-12
Conference Record: 8-11
Non=Conference Record: 10-1
RPI: 35
Worst Loss (by RPI): 50 Michigan State
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 8 Oregon 23 USC, 25 Long Beach State, 41 Arizona State(x2), 46 Utah, 48 Pacific, 54 Michigan
Significant Losses (100+RPI): NONE
Record vs. Top-25 RPI: 2-10
Record vs. Top-50 RPI: 6-11
Record vs. Top-100 RPI: 7-11
Last 10 Matches: 5-5
Notes: OSU is IN! They were up 20-4 on Oregon at one point. Oregon State? can they make some noise in the NCAAs?
Utah
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Overall Record: 17-12
Conference Record: 7-11
Non=Conference Record: 6-10
RPI: 46
Worst Loss (by RPI): 113 Washington State
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 4 Washington, 8 Oregon, 17 UCLA, 23 USC, 24 Colorado, 31 Lipscomb, 41 Arizona State
Significant Losses (100+RPI): 113 Washington State
Record vs. Top-25 RPI: 5-7
Record vs. Top-50 RPI: 7-11
Record vs. Top-100 RPI: 6-11
Last 10 Matches: 7-3
Notes: Gotta LOVE UTAH! They are HOT! Winning seven of their last 8, including beating Washington, USC, UCLA, Colorado, Oregon.. wow!
WCC
Loyola Marymount
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Overall Record: 23-6
Conference Record: 11-7
Non=Conference Record: 12-0
RPI: 39
Worst Loss (by RPI): 86 Gonzaga
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 17 UCLA, 25 Long Beach State, 45 Santa Clara, 42 San Diego, 62 LIU Brooklyn
Significant Losses (100+RPI): NONE
Record vs. Top-25 RPI: 2-1
Record vs. Top-50 RPI: 4-5
Record vs. Top-100 RPI: 7-6
Last 10 Matches: 6-4
Remaining Matches: (BYU)
Notes: Can't leave LMU out - undefeated non-conference with wins over UCLA & LBSU, two other top-50 victories to make it 4. They should be in, but it's surprising to see them finish 5th in the WCC. Pacific will be pretty ticked off if they get left out.
Pacific
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Overall Record: 24-7
Conference Record: 13-5
Non=Conference Record: 11-2
RPI: 48
Worst Loss (by RPI): 45 Santa Clara
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI: 39 LMU(x2), 36 UALR, 45 Santa Clara,
Significant Losses (100+RPI): NONE
Record vs. Top-25 RPI: 0-2
Record vs. Top-50 RPI: 4-7
Record vs. Top-100 RPI: 6-7
Last 10 Matches: 9-1
Remaining Matches:
Notes: I think Pacific's resume is missing one more top-50 victory, but they could still get in with this. They have no losses outside the top-50, and they are 9-1 in their last 10 matches! SMU, UALR, and Illinois State with such a strong finish.
Santa Clara
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Overall Record: 22-9
Conference Record: 12-6
Non=Conference Record: 10-3
RPI: 45
Worst Loss (by RPI): 121 UCSB, 143 Pepperdine, 148 San Francisco
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 21 Duke, 20 BYU, 39 LMU, 42 San Diego(x2), 48 Pacific,
Significant Losses (100+RPI): 148 San Francisco, 121 UCSB, 143 Pepperdine
Record vs. Top-25 RPI: 2-2
Record vs. Top-50 RPI: 6-4
Record vs. Top-100 RPI: 8-6
Last 10 Matches: 7-3
Remaining Matches: Saint Mary's
Notes: Have to like SIX top-50 victories, will it be off-set by three sub-100 losses? They did beat USDx2, BYU, LMU, and Pacific. 5-3 against the top 4 WCC teams.
San Diego
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Overall Record: 19-11
Conference Record: 12-6
Non=Conference Record: 7-5
RPI: 42
Worst Loss (by RPI): 148 San Francisco, 163 Saint Mary's
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 20 BYU, 38 LSU, 39 Loyola Marymount, 48 Pacific(X2), 64 Northwestern
Significant Losses (100+RPI): 148 San Francisco, 163 Saint Mary's
Record vs. Top-25 RPI: 1-4
Record vs. Top-50 RPI: 5-9
Record vs. Top-100 RPI: 7-9
Last 10 Matches: 6-4
Remaining Matches: at Pepperdine
Notes: San Diego was inconsistent all season, do they have enough on their resume to get in? I think so.
Predicted 2014 NCAA Tournament Bracket
*Will fill this in soon, after a few more AQ's are determined to make it less work, but also more realistic
Regional
(1) Stanford vs. Cal State Bakersfield
Santa Clara (or Pacific) vs. Cal State Northridge
(16) TBA vs. (T) Hofstra
(T) San Diego vs. (T) Arizona State
(8) Penn State vs. Dayton
Yale vs. American
(9) Illinois vs. Western Michigan
Illinois State vs. Lipscomb
Regional
(4) Washington vs. (T) New Hampshire
(T) Hawaii vs. (T) Pacific
(13) Kansas vs. (T) LIU Brooklyn
(T) Duke vs. (T) UCLA
(5) North Carolina vs. Hampton
(T) Arizona vs. Coastal Carolina
(12) Colorado State vs. Northern Colorado (or Denver)
Colorado vs. (T) Oklahoma
Regional
(3) Wisconsin vs. (T) Oakland
(T) LSU vs. Marquette
(14) Kentucky vs. Murray State
Western Kentucky vs. Ohio State
(6) Florida State vs. Alabama State
Alabama vs. (T) Southern California
(11) Nebraska vs. Samford
Creighton vs. Kansas State
Regional
(2) Texas vs. Northwestern State
Texas A&M vs. (T) Oregon St
(15) BYU vs. (T) Denver
Utah vs. (T) UALR
(10) Oregon vs. (T) Siena
(T) Long Beach State vs. (T) Loyola Marymount
(7) Florida vs. Jacksonville
Miami(FL) vs. UCF
Conference breakdown as of 11/24 (not updated)
Atlantic 10
George Washington fought hard during the 2014 A-10 tournament, but they came up short as they just couldn't overcome a good Dayton team. George Washington swept Saint Louis is the semifinals, and did so without their leading outside hitter. Dayton will advance to the NCAA Tournament.
Champions: Dayton
Big Sky
Northern Colorado was pushed to the brink by Northern Arizona, but they escaped that match in five sets and used that momentum to beat Idaho State for the second straight time in Pocatello, Idaho. Northern Colorado bounces the 2013 Big Sky Champions on their home court and advances to the NCAA Tournament.
Champions: Northern Colorado
Big South
Wow. Liberty just absolutely falls apart at the end of the season. Looking to be the #1 seed and regular season Big South Champion, they fall apart and actually get bounced in the Quarterfinals of their conference tournament. Would have been nice to see Jade Vorster (Hawaii transfer) back in the NCAAs. But no disrespect to a team I cautioned to watch out for -- #6 High Point. They SWEPT Liberty. High Point eventually lost to host- #2 Coastal Carolina.
That host school, Coastal Carolina then pulled the upset over favorited #1 Radford to advance to the NCAA tournament. It took a 16-14 5th set to swing their way on their home court, but they did it. Radford was pushed to five sets by #4 Winthrop, before losing to Coastal Carolina.
Champions: Coastal Carolina
Colonial
#6 James Madison upset #3 Towson, but then lost to #2 Hofstra. That set up a #2 vs. #1 Hofstra vs. College of Charleston.
It was an absolute battle. Scores: 24-26, 25-27, 25-19, 26-24, 8-15. The Pride receive the NCAA tournament auto bid.
Champions: Hofstra
Horizon
The #1 seed and favorite Oakland won its two games in the Horizon tournament, sweeping the floor with Youngstown State before playing a tough match against Milwaukee, escaping with a 26-24 fourth set victory, and a 3-1 match victory. Milwaukee was the defending Horizon league champions.
Champions: Oakland
Ivy
Yale couldn't beat Harvard in two meetings earlier this season, and if Harvard hadn't lost to two other Ivy League teams, the Crimson would be in the NCAA's. But a regular season tie forced a tie-break Ivy playoff match at Harvard. Yale finally got things to go their way as they swept Harvard. Yale is BACK, yet again, in the NCAA's
Champions: Yale
Metro Atlantic
No upsets on the first day of the MAAC Tournament, but I warned those to watch out for Niagra. The purple eagles were down 0-2 to Manhattan, but they rallied back only to unfortunately lose the 5th set (13-15) to #3 Manhattan. The other team that deserves a shotout from the MAAC is #8 seed Iona. Iona won its opening match of the tournament against #9 Saint Peters, but had to play another match just a few hours later against the #1 seed Marist. Iona pushed Marist to the brink, only to lose in 5 sets.
Catrina Warren posted 30 kills on 84 swings and 42 digs over two games (3-0 win, 2-3 loss to #1 Marist)
In the Finals, it was #2 Siena who pulled the upset over #1 Marist. The Saints grab the automatic bid to the NCAA tournament!
Champions: Siena
Mid Eastern
One of the nations top scorers over the past couple years, Vendula Strakova has led Hampton back to the MEAC Championship and will try to help the Pirates to a second straight NCAA Tournament appearance. Hampton swept Howard, but it wasn't that easy. (25-23, 25-22, 28-26)
Champions: Hampton
Ohio Valley
No major upsets here, #1 Murray State sweeps #2 Belmont in the Championship to advance to the NCAA Tournament. Eastern Illinois (#6 seed) did upset (#3) Eastern Kentucky in the quarterfinals before falling to Belmont.
Champions: Murray State
Southern
No. 7 Chattanooga almost pulled a major upset over No.2 Samford, but fell in the 5th set.
My dark-horse pick #6 Mercer jumped out to a 2 sets to none over host #3 UNC Greensoboro, but UNCG pushed the match to five sets. In the fifth set, Mercer was down 2-7, but STORMED back to tie the game at 10 all. Only to see #3 UNCG win the match 15-12 in 5 sets.
The Championship Match is underway right now, tied at 1 set a piece.
My money's on Furman.
Championship Finals // Monday, November 24 // Fleming Gym // UNCG // Greensboro, N.C.
6:00 p.m. (Furman/WCU) vs. (UNCG/Samford) ESPN3
Champions: (Furman/Samford)
Southland
I thought it would be #3 Texas A&M Corpus Christi who would make some noise in the Southland Tournament. They were swept by #2 Central Arkansas. The major upset of the tournament came when #5 Northwestern State pulled off the stunner against Undefeated in Southland regular season play #1 Stephen F. Austin. The tournament was hosted by Northwestern State, so not a huge surprise, but still you had to favor Stephen F. Austin.
Then, the championship game was set for a rematch of 2013. Northwestern State vs. Central Arkansas. The Demons lost an absolute heartbreaker last season to Central Arkansas, after being up 2 sets to none. This year, Northwestern State was not going to let it happen again. For a second one might have thought that it was going to be a repeat of last year, as Northwestern State was up 2 sets to none, but they came out on fire to SWEEP UCA. (25-23, 25-18, 25-17)
Champions: Northwestern State
SWAC
Alabama State made NCAA-history on Sunday (I think). Alabama State went 2-1 on its first day of the SWAC tournament. They won their first match against Prairie View A&M, then lost to Jackson State in five sets, but finished the day beating Alabama A&M.
On day two, Alabama State needed to win FOUR matches to advance to the NCAA's. They did it!
3-0 vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff (10am)
3-0 vs. Jackson State (1pm)
3-1 vs. Southern (5pm)
3-0 vs. Southern (Championship) (7:20pm)
Alabama State was playing volleyball from 10am, up until 9pm. Insane. But they return to the NCAA tournament. Congratulations!
Champions: Alabama State
American Athletic Conference
Poor Temple. Temple was in sole possession of 2nd place this weekend, but lost to both Temple and Southern Methodist to put a 3-way tie for 2nd place. The only school from the AAC that is guaranteed to make the NCAA tournament is the AAC Champion: UCF.
Tulsa and SMU are in consideration for an at-large bid. Temple, with its two losses this weekend, I think their season comes to an end. Have to feel for them but they have had a great season.
Tulsa and Southern Methodist are at-large candidates but they are outside the bubble. They play each other on Wednesday. Tulsa is an interesting case. they started 0-4 in conference play. They lost to USF, UCF, Cincy, and Memphis. But since then, tulsa is 14-1. Tulsa's only loss came to Temple on the road, but they just avenged that loss. Tulsa beat Southern Methodist in Oklahoma this season, but I think to get an NCAA bid they are going to have to do it in Dallas too. Even if they do, I don't think they are guaranteed a bid. You have to be pretty ticked off if you're Tulsa and finish 23-8, 2nd in the AAC, 15-5 in conference and just miss the NCAA tournament for the second straight year. My beef with Tulsa is their performance up until mid-conference play looks very sketchy. They lost to Northern Arizona, barely escaped boise st. in five, but they did take sets off Minnesota and Iowa State to show they were competitive. Their signature victories are over UCF and (if they can beat SMU again, then) SMU(x2).
Champions: UCF
Atlantic Sun
UPSET!!! #3 Jacksonville advances to the NCAA Tournament with a stunning upset over #1 Lipscomb!
This makes things dicey for Lipscomb. I was worried about Northern Kentucky or FGCU potentially pulling the upset, Jacksonville was a surprise. Nonetheless, I am not too sold on Lipscomb. They are certainly on the bubble. They are rooting for USC to not make the NCAA tournament, and rooting for UALR / Illinois State to handle their business in their conference tournaments.
Champions: Jacksonville
Big East
Big East Tournament Bracket set:
#1 Creighton vs. #4 Xavier
#3 Marquette vs. #2 Seton Hall
Butler put together a nice season, but it comes to an end this weekend. Tough to chew on for Butler. Creighton and Marquette are locks to the NCAA tournament.
My favorite to win the conference tournament is Seton Hall. Seton Hall is 4-2 against the Big East tournament field, with two wins over #1 Creighton, but splitting with Marquette and Xavier. Surprisingly, Seton Hall's last two losses came to Xavier and Butler, matches played in South Orange. So don't count out Xavier, but Xavier has not been able to beat Creighton or Marquette this season. The Big East tournament could be a shocker, and Seton Hall may have a case for the NCAA's, but still outside the bubble. They could beat Marquette and lose in the final, which could warrant bubble consideration. Either way it will be interesting to see it play out. Seton Hall beat Creighton on the road, and Marquette at home.
Conference USA
UTSA was undefeated in conference play until late in the season, but two late-season losses end their season. They lost to North Texas in one of the last C-USA games, and then my dark-horse pick #4 Rice pulled the upset over UTSA to advance to the Championship.
No more upsets for Rice though, as Western Kentucky handles business and will advance to the NCAA tournament! (Remember, last season Western Kentucky was stunned by Troy, preventing the Hilltoppers from going to the NCAA's)
Champions: Western Kentucky
Mid-American
Sigh. I don't even want to talk about Ohio.
#5 seeded Western Michigan was able to beat #4 Ball State, which put them in the MAC Semifinals against Ohio. Ohio is firmly a bubble team with a sketchy resume. Ohio was up 2 sets to none over WMU, but the team from Kalamazoo fought back and won in five sets. They won the third set 25-23, fourth set 25-23, and the fifth 16-14.
Wow. Ohio bounced in the semifinals, are they going to get into the NCAA's?? I'm not so sure.... Miami (OH) will take on Western Michigan to advance to the NCAA tournament in a match played tonight... (the game is LIVE now, 4:30pm Pacific)
Champions: Western Michigan or Miami(OH)
Missouri Valley
MVC Volleyball Championship Schedule
Thursday, November 27
Quarterfinal #1 – No. 4 Missouri State vs. No. 5 Southern Illinois, 5 PM
Quarterfinal #2 – No. 3 Wichita State vs. No. 6 Indiana State, 7:30 PM
Friday, November 28
Semifinal #1 – No. 1 Illinois State vs. Winner MSU/SIU, 5 PM
Semifinal #2 – No. 2 UNI vs. Winner WSU/INS, 7:30 PM
Saturday, November 29
Championship Match – Semifinal #1 Winner vs. Semifinal #2 Winner, 4 PM
Illinois State, the undefeated regular season champions of the MVC, will have their hands full in the semifinals if Missouri State gets there. The Bears fell in five sets to Illinois State in their last match, and will certainly test the Redbirds. Wichita State / Northern Iowa could also be potential champions. Will be an interesting tournament... Illinois State plays the Championship just hours before the selections are released.. will be very interesting to see if the committee considers them as an at-large should they be upset. We've already seen Ohio and Lipscomb go down.. Only Western Kentucky has survived.. UALR & Ill. St will play this week.
Mountain West
There are too many good bubble candidates for UNLV to have a shot at a bid. Unfortunately for them, their season comes to an end. Even if they weren't stunned by Boise St. this weekend, I still have UNLV OUT.
Wyoming even if they beat Colorado State this week, you are OUT. That is the only good victory for Wyoming with a #69 RPI as of right now. Sorry!
Colorado St should host, with Northern Colorado & Colorado joining them for the first and second rounds!
Champions: Colorado St
Northeast
LIU Brooklyn is back in the NCAA's, and they may be better than ever. They've won some big games this season (Sparty, Western Kentucky) but they wouldn't have warranted an at-large bid if they were upset in Conference tournament. They were able to handle Robert Morris, and they may be a test in the first round depending on the opponent.
Champions: LIU Brooklyn
Patriot
American is dancing again in the NCAA'S! They beat Lehigh, who had just beat American a couple weeks ago. American hopes to pull off an upset after the run they gave Texas!
Champions: American
Summit
No real surprises, #2 IUPUI vs. #1 Denver in the Championship game. I thought South Dakota would make a run, but they were swept by IUPUI.
In the Championship game, Denver was pushed to the brink, but still swept IUPUI (32-30, 25-19, 26-24) to win the Championship. IUPUI gave it all and the sweep over South Dakota puts a nice finish to their season.
Champions: Denver
Sun Belt
2014 Sun Belt Conference Volleyball Tournament
Thursday, November 27
MATCH 1 - 12 p.m. CT – No. 8 South Alabama vs. No. 1 UALR
MATCH 2 – 2:30 p.m. CT – No. 5 Appalachian State vs. No. 4 UT Arlington
MATCH 3 - 5 p.m. CT – No. 6 UL Lafayette vs. No. 3 Arkansas State
MATCH 4 – 7:30 p.m. CT – No. 7 Georgia State. No. 2 Texas State*
Friday, November 28
MATCH 5 - 4 p.m. CT - Match 1 Winner vs. Match 2 Winner
MATCH 6 – 6:30 p.m. CT – Match 3 Winner vs. Match 4 Winner
Championship Saturday, November 29
MATCH 7 - 1 p.m. CT – Match 5 Winner vs. Match 6 Winner (Broadcast Live on ESPN3
Dark-Horse: #2 Texas State, host squad
UALR: You better not lose. If you do, despite your victory over Miami (who could finish top-25, imagine that..), you are OUT.
WAC
Cal State Bakersfield wins the 2014 WAC tournament and advances to the NCAA Tournament!
Shoutout for Seattle who rallied from a 5th-set 10-14 deficit to beat No. 4 Utah Valley, then rallied to beat No. 1 UMKC in 5 sets. Their luck ran out as they were swept by host CSUB.
Champions: Cal State Bakersfield
Big West
Long Beach State has got the best team they have had in a long time. They are really really going to be a dangerous team to wherever they get sent... (UCLA?) Sad they can't be hosting, but just outside of RPI range and not a good enough resume to compensate.
Hawaii and Northridge. Strangely, for over a month, Hawaiis RPI has stayed the same. They are for at least the 3rd week straight, ranked #30. Since they have that cushion, I think they are in the NCAA's. But their overall resume is not that good.
Cal state Northridge is in more trouble. Even though CSUN has a better resume, Hawaii has the better RPI. Unfortunately, we know what the committee thinks about RPI.
CSUN concerns me because they have some bad losses. When you look at Hawaii and you look at who they lost to, you can't really fault them. They lost to Pac-12 schools, LBSU(x2), and once to Northridge. All NCAA-tournament teams unless Northridge gets left out.
I'm not sure if CSUN is in as I'm writing this, so let me think for a little bit.
Champions: Long Beach State
West Coast Conference
Well, one things certain, BYU is returning to the NCAA tournament. They stunned Hawaii on the island last year, and will try to make a run in the NCAA's this year. My favorite player from BYU last year was not Alexa Gray, it was their middle Kathryn Lecheminant(sp?). She was a dominant middle that ate up #6 Southern California in the first set of the NCAA Regional Semifinals, but I remember her not getting many opportunities after that. BYU fell 3-1 to USC to end a very good season for the Cougars. BYU wrapped up the WCC Championship this season, and that's it for certainties in the WCC.
One Question: (In or Out)
Four Teams:
Loyola Marymount
Santa Clara
San Diego
Pacific
If only one of those four get in, I say its a travesty. If two out of four get in, I'll have to live with it. I think three of four should get in, and maybe even all four!
LMU's resume is the best out of all the bubble teams. And by best I mean, best RPI, best wins, best in my personal opinion if we throw out me predicting what the NCAA is going to do, but I will admit I am bias and am a fan and do attend some LMU matches. Nonetheless, I think they are the safest WCC team.
Pacific beat LMU twice, but they only have a win over Santa Clara & UALR to support that - will that be enough?
San Diego is inconsistent and has a bad loss, but they do have a decent amount of wins to make me think that they are still safe.
Santa Clara good wins, but bad losses. Inconsistent, again. I really think all four teams should be in, but we'll take a deeper look below.
Champions: BYU
ACC
So long that North Carolina beats Duke this weekend, they should be ACC Champions. That's no guarantee, Duke is vulnerable but very good. Florida State could be the only other potential Champion, but I don't see Wake Forest beating UNC, so I think it's UNC's Championship.
We know UNC, FSU, and Duke are getting bids to the NCAA tournament. But will (or should) Miami, Pittsburgh, Virginia, and Virginia Tech get in? Maybe at least one? I don't know.
The committee is going to be tested on how important RPI is. Miami(FL) is such a tough case. They can shut me up, and alot of other critics, if they beat Florida State this weekend. My beef is there are too many other good teams out there for Miami to squeeze in solely based on RPI. Yeah sure, you beat Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech, and Virginia, but are those even NCAA teams? Pacific, Purdue, Michigan State, Tulsa, Santa Clara, Utah, and even UNLV/UVA/VTech have better resume's based on big victories than Miami does. Miami probably won't end up with a sub-100 loss though, so that helps in their favor.
The resumes are listed below.
Big Ten
The B1G Championship is going to come down to whether Wisconsin handles its last weekend or not. If not, Penn State is still alive in the hope. What does it really matter, though.
Wisconsin, PSU, Illinois, Nebraska and Ohio State are NCAA-Tournament teams.
Purdue, Michigan State, and Minnesota are the best three candidates for at-larges.
Northwestern has drifted too far in RPI, and Michigan is ineligible for the NCAA tournament.
Champions: Wisconsin or Penn State
Big 12
Baylor is ineligible for the NCAA Tournament. Texas wins the auto-bid. Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, and Oklahoma are at-large bids. Only question is who gets a seed?
Congratulations to Baylor for a couple top-25 victories. I expect them to be better next year, and maybe get back on track and make the NCAA tournament. (A couple years ago, Baylor was very close to the NCAA tournament but a last minute Southern Methodist lost turned Baylor from one of the last teams in the tournament, to one of the last teams out.)
Champions: Texas
SEC
Florida wins the SEC. l
LSU is still a bubble team. They are 38 in RPI. If they lose to South Carolina this week, I think LSU may be out. But they have wins over Texas A&M and Kentucky. They have losses to Central Arkansas and a gut-wrenching loss to 200+ RPI Mississippi State (7-22) at the time. Right now though, I think LSU is in..
Champions: Florida
PAC-12
Last but not least, the conference that may get the most bids.
Stanford, Oregon, UW look to definitely be seeded.
UCLA and Arizona are hoping they get a seed.
Colorado, Arizona State, Oregon State, Utah are hoping to get at-large bids and are all NCAA-eligible. I would rank them in that order for most likely at-large bid to least-likely at-large bid.
The big questions are will Utah get a bid?
And can my beloved Women of Troy get their act together? I can't fathom missing the NCAA tournament, but what happened to my crosstown rivals last season may be a crushing, humbling fate for the South LA's volleyball team. USC is going to have to beat either Arizona or UCLA on the road. As a fan, I have to think it is going to happen. But on paper it looks like a big uphill climb. Arizona looks vulnerable right now, and I think that is SC's best chance. (Can someone tell me the status of Snuka) I am a BIG Snuka fan, and I hope that she is 100% (after the USC match) because with her and Kingdon I can see U of A making a run in the NCAA's.
Champions: Stanford (95% chance) or Washington