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Post by beavis on Jul 5, 2015 21:12:38 GMT -5
Love watching Brazil play - so solid in every aspect of the game. Just really depressed about the huge success of their domestic tour, the advanced age of our current players hoping to compete with them, and the future. Sorry, but we are all screwed. They have so many great players waiting in the wings, and 5 out of 6 medals at the World Championships and watching them in person in St. Pete leads me to the inescapable conclusion that USA beach volleyball, at least for the immediate future, has little hope of returning to its glory days.
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Post by guest2 on Jul 6, 2015 3:41:04 GMT -5
Brazil's men have made 5 top 4s with two wins so far this year.
US men have 4 top 4s and one win (Playing without their top team)
Its a small sample size and one of the US top 4s was in Fuzhou, but the evidence does not yet support this conclusion at all. Brazil has had a healthy domestic tour for years as far as I understand and the US has had basically nothing since 2009. Maybe that just didnt show until now, or maybe people are jumping to conclusions due to the success of the Brazilian women.
There is a good argument that the Dutch have been as successful as either this year. Reindeer/Christian have made two straight finals and finished 4th and 5th and the other Dutch Team has won a major tournament that had a full field, made the finals in a couple opens and took 5th in Moscow.
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Post by guest2 on Jul 6, 2015 3:43:41 GMT -5
And the whole "So solid in every aspect" thing is not accurate either. Evandro, who has to be considered one of Brazil's top 3 players right now has exactly two elite skills (Jumpserving and being really tall). His passing and setting are not great, his technical hitting is ok, but at 6'4 would be so-so and he is a poor blocker considering his size and jump
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Post by klazk on Jul 6, 2015 8:27:00 GMT -5
Guest2 - I believe Beavis's point was more about the future than the current season if you go back and re-read his post. It is hard to argue. Brazil's men have 3 successful teams on the World Tour where all the players are under 30. If you include Doherty, the US has 3 successful players on the World Tour under 35. As pointed out in other places on this board, there is not an obvious pipeline for the US men to come through to replace "old guard."
Brazil also has players like Alliso (21) and Guto Carvalhaes (21) that are playing very strongly on the South American continental tour. Meanwhile we are sending teams like Burik (29) and Toppel (34). I'm sorry, while they are solid players, they are not going to be making noise on the World Tour. There are younger guys like Casebeer and Crabb that could develop, but I think it is hard to argue that the Brazilians are set up to be much stronger because of their system/infrastructure long-term. Not a guarantee that they will be, but they are set up better.
Pedro 28
Evandro 24
Alison 29
Bruno 28
Alvaro Filho 24
Vitor Felipe 24
Emanuel 42
Ricardo 40
Dalhausser 35
Rosenthal 35
Gibb 39
Patterson 35
Brunner 30
Lucena 35
Hyden 42
Bourne 26
Doherty 31
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Post by guest2 on Jul 6, 2015 9:20:36 GMT -5
Agree on the Continental thing, but still think this is alarmist. Page and Crabb both seem to have good futures, as well as Tri, Theo and Ryan amongst current players.
Setting an arbitrary age like under 30 rather than under 31 makes it seem worse than it is. Then the US has three and the Brazilians six. It also overestimates how much the Brazilian players will improve, that Brazilian players peak earlier and debut earlier. (Did Casey even win in his 20s?, Jake was 28 or something like that?)
Alison has been on the FIVB for ten years. Do we see him getting much better? Likewise with Bruno who has been on tour for seven years.
I think there is a point that the US needs new blood, but the "Brazilians are dominating" stuff is neither accurate nor unusual. In fact I continue to think this is a slight down period for Brazilian men.
Just using odd years going back to 2007, through five tournaments the Brazilians won:
2007 - 4 of 5
2009 - 3 of 5
2011 - 3 of 5
2013 - 1 of 5 with 6 top fours.
The Brazilians are performing about how they always have.
The other thing not taken into account of with regards to the future is how little effort is now required to become a beach player. This isnt the old days when indoor players were befuddled by deep sand, wind, shots etc. I think that may actually be a more legitimate point in that no longer will great 6'3 - 6'5ish athletes that nevertheles couldnt play pro basketball be able to dominate so the US may have some trouble there because even remotely athletic US giants are basketball first. (Evandro for instance would not be playing volleyball if he were born in Portland)
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Post by klazk on Jul 6, 2015 10:21:48 GMT -5
Setting an arbitrary age like under 30 rather than under 31 makes it seem worse than it is. Then the US has three and the Brazilians six. It also overestimates how much the Brazilian players will improve, that Brazilian players peak earlier and debut earlier. (Did Casey even win in his 20s?, Jake was 28 or something like that?) I don't understand the arbitrary age point. It's still 6 players (and 3 complete teams) + Alliso/Guto Carvalhaes compared to 3 - none of which currently play together. I could go the other way and say 28 and then it is 6 to 1. You have to draw the line somewhere. I don't think in this instance it moves the needle on the overall argument. The way I look at it, using age isn't about how much they will improve, it is about how long the countries have to develop players to replace those currently on the World Tour. The US basically needs 2-3 teams (4-6 players) to become World Tour ready within the next Olympic cycle to keep having a guaranteed 4 spots in events (unless you are going to argue that all 4 of Patterson, Lucena, Dalhausser and Rosenthal will still be playing at a high level at 39). Brazil needs 1, maybe zero as Alliso/Guto Carvalhaes could likely compete right now. As I put in my last post, I don't think Brazil is guaranteed to be better than the US in the future. But I do think they are set up to have a better chance to succeed than the US men's program as it currently stands. |
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Post by guest2 on Jul 6, 2015 10:58:13 GMT -5
With the arbitrary age point I was saying that Alison, Pedro etc are essentially the same age as Theo, Ryan etc. 6 to 3 is very different from 6 to 1. Also foreign athletes start playing pro younger. The NBA hasnt had an 18 year old who played significant minutes since Lebron, whereas in European soccer elite players often debut at 16 or 17.
Todd got a flukey win at 26, but didnt win again on the FIVB until he was 31, Blanton and Fonoi were 28 and 31. Every Brazilian guy on your list won earlier than that and most debuted at an age when the American players were still in college.
Will Brazil be better than America in terms of depth? Probably, but they have been forever and the FIVB has actually prevented that from becoming more apparent.
When the FIVB started running a real tour, if it were truly an anyone could enter a qualifier type tournament the results would have been something like:
1-7 USA
7-25 about half and half US and Brazil with maybe two other teams mixed in
But if you did the same five years ago, or three years ago, I would bet the US would be represented the same (maybe four teams in the top 25) and Brazil would probably have had 7-10.
4-6 players doesnt seem that daunting. Three years ago Tri took a 29th at an AVP and some 7ths in the Corona tour. Theo's career high was a 13th. Crabb is already much better than that and Page is showing promise. (although seeing him at Pottstown really makes clear how much trouble some of these geeks (carnival usage) would have on a big court.)
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Post by vballjj on Jul 6, 2015 11:46:53 GMT -5
There are pros and cons of playing year round since the Brasilian tour runs over our (US) winter. I know the Austrialians have a winter tour as well, however volleyball must not be as popular as it is in Brasil.
On the US end, as guest2 mentioned, we should consider the 7 footer Robart Page -rumor has it he may be picked up by Rosie, but who knows since he does not have the experience
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Post by beavis on Jul 6, 2015 23:51:07 GMT -5
Thanks for the great discussion, guys. Please allow me to clarify a few things. First, I did not specifically mean only the Brazilian men. In fact, I think the gap between our US women's teams and the Brazilians is even more worrisome, and is perhaps growing faster than it is with the men. I did not mean to sound so incredibly negative, and some of my original post was probably a bit knee-jerk after watching even the third and fourth-best Brazilian women cruise so easily lately.
Your outline of the Brazilian men's pipeline is spot on, so please allow me to focus a bit on the women. I realize that a lot of folks have their eggs in the Kerri/April basket, and maybe they will again hit their stride in time for a serious Olympic run, but realistically, who is left after them, and how much time is left in their tanks? Fendrick/Sweat are who they are - an occasional FIVB run here and there and a solid AVP team, but that's about it. Have always loved Kessy (ever since I watched her at the start when she was married to Aaron Boss!!!), and I'll never forget her losing it against the Lindquist sisters when they didn't block a lick and kept going over on one or two! But honestly, how much does she have left, even if Emily can become the player that we all think she might be deep inside? I'd love to think Summer may one day find a niche and really improve, but that is starting to look less and less likely (I know, I know, she is still soooooo young, but is she truly a blocker, a defender, or a tweener who may never really can have an impact)? Carico/DiCello? Hochaver/McGuire? Bensend/Urango? Maybe there is someone lurking in the NVL, and we have watched quite a few of their tourneys, but what are the ceilings for the Niles, Sowalas, Hayes and Menards of that tour? Geez, the Canadian men chewed up the NVL and that seems to be translating well to the FIVB, but have any US teams followed suit? Or are there maybe young teams that I know nothing about who can make the incredible improvement that the lower tier Brazilians (or the Canadians) have made over the past few years?
Again, hate to be negative, but the realist in me, after watching, playing and coaching beach volleyball since the glory days of Sinjin/Stoklos battling Hov/Dodd, leads me to believe that the US future, for both the men and women, is pretty darn bleak. I sure hope I'm wrong!!!
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Post by guest2 on Jul 7, 2015 2:06:23 GMT -5
Thanks for the great discussion, guys. Please allow me to clarify a few things. First, I did not specifically mean only the Brazilian men. In fact, I think the gap between our US women's teams and the Brazilians is even more worrisome, and is perhaps growing faster than it is with the men. I did not mean to sound so incredibly negative, and some of my original post was probably a bit knee-jerk after watching even the third and fourth-best Brazilian women cruise so easily lately. Your outline of the Brazilian men's pipeline is spot on, so please allow me to focus a bit on the women. I realize that a lot of folks have their eggs in the Kerri/April basket, and maybe they will again hit their stride in time for a serious Olympic run, but realistically, who is left after them, and how much time is left in their tanks? Fendrick/Sweat are who they are - an occasional FIVB run here and there and a solid AVP team, but that's about it. Have always loved Kessy (ever since I watched her at the start when she was married to Aaron Boss!!!), and I'll never forget her losing it against the Lindquist sisters when they didn't block a lick and kept going over on one or two! But honestly, how much does she have left, even if Emily can become the player that we all think she might be deep inside? I'd love to think Summer may one day find a niche and really improve, but that is starting to look less and less likely (I know, I know, she is still soooooo young, but is she truly a blocker, a defender, or a tweener who may never really can have an impact)? Carico/DiCello? Hochaver/McGuire? Bensend/Urango? Maybe there is someone lurking in the NVL, and we have watched quite a few of their tourneys, but what are the ceilings for the Niles, Sowalas, Hayes and Menards of that tour? Geez, the Canadian men chewed up the NVL and that seems to be translating well to the FIVB, but have any US teams followed suit? Or are there maybe young teams that I know nothing about who can make the incredible improvement that the lower tier Brazilians (or the Canadians) have made over the past few years? Again, hate to be negative, but the realist in me, after watching, playing and coaching beach volleyball since the glory days of Sinjin/Stoklos battling Hov/Dodd, leads me to believe that the US future, for both the men and women, is pretty darn bleak. I sure hope I'm wrong!!! With regards to the women seems 100% spot on, except that in the long term the NCAA adding it as a sport is grounds for a lot of hope |
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Post by crawdaddy on Jul 7, 2015 12:28:59 GMT -5
Thanks for the great discussion, guys. Please allow me to clarify a few things. First, I did not specifically mean only the Brazilian men. In fact, I think the gap between our US women's teams and the Brazilians is even more worrisome, and is perhaps growing faster than it is with the men. I did not mean to sound so incredibly negative, and some of my original post was probably a bit knee-jerk after watching even the third and fourth-best Brazilian women cruise so easily lately. Your outline of the Brazilian men's pipeline is spot on, so please allow me to focus a bit on the women. I realize that a lot of folks have their eggs in the Kerri/April basket, and maybe they will again hit their stride in time for a serious Olympic run, but realistically, who is left after them, and how much time is left in their tanks? Fendrick/Sweat are who they are - an occasional FIVB run here and there and a solid AVP team, but that's about it. Have always loved Kessy (ever since I watched her at the start when she was married to Aaron Boss!!!), and I'll never forget her losing it against the Lindquist sisters when they didn't block a lick and kept going over on one or two! But honestly, how much does she have left, even if Emily can become the player that we all think she might be deep inside? I'd love to think Summer may one day find a niche and really improve, but that is starting to look less and less likely (I know, I know, she is still soooooo young, but is she truly a blocker, a defender, or a tweener who may never really can have an impact)? Carico/DiCello? Hochaver/McGuire? Bensend/Urango? Maybe there is someone lurking in the NVL, and we have watched quite a few of their tourneys, but what are the ceilings for the Niles, Sowalas, Hayes and Menards of that tour? Geez, the Canadian men chewed up the NVL and that seems to be translating well to the FIVB, but have any US teams followed suit? Or are there maybe young teams that I know nothing about who can make the incredible improvement that the lower tier Brazilians (or the Canadians) have made over the past few years? Again, hate to be negative, but the realist in me, after watching, playing and coaching beach volleyball since the glory days of Sinjin/Stoklos battling Hov/Dodd, leads me to believe that the US future, for both the men and women, is pretty darn bleak. I sure hope I'm wrong!!! We are paying the price for the downfall of the domestic tour and it will take some time to recover. I have some optimism about the Summer/Carico pairing, very interested to see how they play out the rest of this season. I'm also a fan of Dowdy - who is young and has room for improvement. As has been pointed out, we are losing some of our talent to the indoor game. I think Kim Hill could have stepped in as the next dominant U.S. blocker, but unlikely we'll see her on the beach for many years given the path she is on. But for sure there is a pipeline of much younger talent developing - kids are playing more and at an earlier age and with better coaching all because of the lure of the scholarships. Good chance we are shut out of the podium in Rio, but I wouldn't be that pessimistic about the long-term future for the women. |
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Post by wang pu on Jul 7, 2015 18:33:54 GMT -5
Thanks for the great discussion, guys. Please allow me to clarify a few things. First, I did not specifically mean only the Brazilian men. In fact, I think the gap between our US women's teams and the Brazilians is even more worrisome, and is perhaps growing faster than it is with the men. I did not mean to sound so incredibly negative, and some of my original post was probably a bit knee-jerk after watching even the third and fourth-best Brazilian women cruise so easily lately. Your outline of the Brazilian men's pipeline is spot on, so please allow me to focus a bit on the women. I realize that a lot of folks have their eggs in the Kerri/April basket, and maybe they will again hit their stride in time for a serious Olympic run, but realistically, who is left after them, and how much time is left in their tanks? Fendrick/Sweat are who they are - an occasional FIVB run here and there and a solid AVP team, but that's about it. Have always loved Kessy (ever since I watched her at the start when she was married to Aaron Boss!!!), and I'll never forget her losing it against the Lindquist sisters when they didn't block a lick and kept going over on one or two! But honestly, how much does she have left, even if Emily can become the player that we all think she might be deep inside? I'd love to think Summer may one day find a niche and really improve, but that is starting to look less and less likely (I know, I know, she is still soooooo young, but is she truly a blocker, a defender, or a tweener who may never really can have an impact)? Carico/DiCello? Hochaver/McGuire? Bensend/Urango? Maybe there is someone lurking in the NVL, and we have watched quite a few of their tourneys, but what are the ceilings for the Niles, Sowalas, Hayes and Menards of that tour? Geez, the Canadian men chewed up the NVL and that seems to be translating well to the FIVB, but have any US teams followed suit? Or are there maybe young teams that I know nothing about who can make the incredible improvement that the lower tier Brazilians (or the Canadians) have made over the past few years? Again, hate to be negative, but the realist in me, after watching, playing and coaching beach volleyball since the glory days of Sinjin/Stoklos battling Hov/Dodd, leads me to believe that the US future, for both the men and women, is pretty darn bleak. I sure hope I'm wrong!!! We are paying the price for the downfall of the domestic tour and it will take some time to recover. I have some optimism about the Summer/Carico pairing, very interested to see how they play out the rest of this season. I'm also a fan of Dowdy - who is young and has room for improvement. As has been pointed out, we are losing some of our talent to the indoor game. I think Kim Hill could have stepped in as the next dominant U.S. blocker, but unlikely we'll see her on the beach for many years given the path she is on. But for sure there is a pipeline of much younger talent developing - kids are playing more and at an earlier age and with better coaching all because of the lure of the scholarships. Good chance we are shut out of the podium in Rio, but I wouldn't be that pessimistic about the long-term future for the women. Have Summer/Carico been entered in any FIVB events this summer? |
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Post by klazk on Jul 7, 2015 20:08:27 GMT -5
Have Summer/Carico been entered in any FIVB events this summer? They are registered for the Japan grand slam. Will be in the CQ along with Fopma/Hochevar and Dicello/Van Zwieten. |
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Post by donnyb on Jul 7, 2015 20:25:02 GMT -5
I like fompa/hochevar better. Her and fenrick did well togeateher with her playing defense behind a bigger blocker. There not our future USA team but should do ok.
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