RPI Futures Week 9 (10/26)

[bluepenquin]

RPI is a projected season ending RPI based on the win probabilities for the remaining games on the schedule using the current Pablo rating.

Projected RPI rank. (LW rank) School (Overall win/loss, Conference win/loss) (SOS rank) - Unadjusted projected RPI rank

1. (1) USC (31-1, 19-1) (36) - 3
2. (2) Texas (25-2, 15-1) (18) - 1
3. (3) Florida (24-4, 15-3) (2) - 2
4. (5) Minnesota (26-4, 18-2) (10) - 4
5. (6) UCLA (24-6, 15-5) (7) - 5
6. (7) Ohio State (26-6, 15-5) (15) - 6
7. (11) Penn State (27-4, 16-4) (37) - 8
8. (8) Kansas (26-2, 14-2) (56) - 7
9. (4) Nebraska (25-5, 16-4) (27) - 9
10. (12) Kentucky (23-7, 16-2) (11) - 10
11. (18) Wisconsin (22-8, 14-6) (9) - 14
12. (9) BYU (25-4, 15-3) (62) - 11
13. (10) Washington (26-4, 16-4) (64) - 13
14. (15) Florida State (26-5, 19-1) (46) - 16
15. (13) Western Kentucky (29-2, 16-0) (81) - 12
16. (16) Louisville (24-6, 18-2) (38) - 18
17. (14) Arkansas State (24-2, 15-1) (95) - 15
18. (23) Stanford (21-7, 15-5) (26) - 20
19. (17) Missouri (25-6, 13-5) (40) - 17
20. (25) San Diego (22-8, 15-3) (25) - 19
21. (19) Creighton (23-8, 17-1) (30) - 22
22. (20) Arizona State (23-8, 12-8) (32) - 21
23. (21) Texas A&M (19-10, 12-6) (5) - 23
24. (26) Iowa State (18-10, 11-5) (8) - 25
25. (22) SMU (29-3, 19-1) (106) - 24
26. (24) Hawaii (25-2, 15-1) (139) - 26
27. (31) Marquette (23-8, 14-4) (50) - 31
28. (27) Illinois (19-12, 10-10) (12) - 32
29. (32) Loyola Marymount (20-10, 11-7) (21) - 28
30. (36) North Carolina (19-10, 16-4) (24) - 33
31. (38) Dayton (23-7, 13-1) (71) - 27
32. (35) Wichita State (25-7, 16-2) (70) - 29
33. (33) Colorado State (25-4, 18-0) (120) - 30
34. (45) Purdue (22-9, 13-7) (51) - 34
35. (41) Santa Clara (22-8, 13-5) (61) - 35
36. (29) Arkansas (20-10, 10-8) (44) - 39
37. (30) Ohio (25-5, 15-1) (123) - 36
38. (34) Villanova (25-6, 15-3) (98) - 37
39. (28) Northwestern (16-15, 8-12) (1) - 43
40. (37) Michigan (18-13, 8-12) (13) - 38
41. (46) James Madison (25-4, 15-1) (143) - 40
42. (44) Idaho State (22-8, 14-2) (79) - 44
43. (40) Baylor (17-13, 5-11) (14) - 41
44. (50) Miami-FL (21-9, 14-6) (54) - 42
45. (39) Arizona (19-13, 9-11) (23) - 45
46. (48) Northern Arizona (24-5, 14-2) (133) - 46
47. (54) Michigan State (19-12, 11-9) (33) - 47
48. (42) Missouri State (21-10, 12-6) (68) - 48
49. (43) Virginia (20-11, 12-8) (42) - 49
50. (49) Pacific (19-11, 10-8) (45) - 50
51. (57) Long Beach State (24-7, 13-3) (135) - 54
52. (53) Kansas State (16-12, 8-8) (29) - 51
53. (55) TCU (19-9, 9-7) (72) - 52
54. (51) Boise State (22-8, 14-4) (103) - 53
55. (52) Wyoming (22-8, 12-6) (109) - 58
56. (47) Pittsburgh (23-9, 13-7) (99) - 55
57. (62) Southern Illinois (21-10, 12-6) (74) - 57
58. (61) Northern Iowa (17-14, 11-7) (34) - 60
59. (67) Illinois State (22-9, 12-6) (104) - 56
60. (56) Lipscomb (20-9, 12-2) (85) - 59
61. (58) Saint Louis (22-8, 11-3) (124) - 65
62. (73) Cleveland State (25-5, 14-2) (209) - 61
63. (64) Oregon (14-15, 8-12) (16) - 62
64. (71) Appalachian State (21-6, 14-2) (169) - 63
65. (72) UNC Wilmington (21-7, 12-4) (155) - 64
66. (91) Colorado (18-14, 10-10) (53) - 69
67. (59) Iowa (14-19, 4-16) (6) - 72
68. (68) Pepperdine (16-15, 7-11) (31) - 68
69. (65) Syracuse (21-10, 12-8) (108) - 66
70. (63) Chattanooga (24-5, 13-3) (237) - 67
71. (60) Loyola-Chicago (22-8, 12-6) (141) - 70
72. (76) Oklahoma (11-17, 5-11) (3) - 73
73. (77) Gonzaga (17-14, 8-10) (39) - 75
74. (74) Florida Gulf Coast (23-8, 12-2) (145) - 71
75. (82) New Mexico State (25-6, 13-1) (236) - 77
76. (84) Texas-San Antonio (22-8, 13-3) (149) - 76
77. (85) Sacramento State (24-7, 11-5) (205) - 82
78. (92) Cincinnati (21-10, 13-7) (111) - 78
79. (69) Temple (23-9, 14-6) (144) - 79
80. (78) Xavier (16-13, 12-6) (57) - 84
81. (81) Coastal Carolina (22-4, 14-0) (256) - 80
82. (96) Ole Miss (22-11, 8-10) (129) - 86
83. (87) Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (28-4, 16-0) (262) - 74
84. (70) Florida Atlantic (18-10, 10-6) (100) - 81
85. (66) Rice (19-11, 9-7) (96) - 83
86. (97) Oakland (18-12, 12-4) (88) - 85
87. (79) American (25-6, 16-0) (228) - 87
88. (89) North Texas (19-12, 11-5) (91) - 88
89. (83) San Francisco (19-12, 6-12) (87) - 89
90. (86) Auburn (16-14, 8-10) (48) - 90
91. (88) Cal Poly (21-6, 13-3) (212) - 91
92. (93) Tennessee (23-10, 9-9) (150) - 94
93. (75) Towson (25-6, 11-5) (246) - 92
94. (100) Rhode Island (19-8, 9-5) (171) - 93
95. (95) Virginia Tech (18-14, 9-11) (76) - 96
96. (111) Duke (15-15, 10-10) (58) - 97
97. (80) Murray State (25-2, 15-1) (299) - 95
98. (90) Denver (24-8, 12-4) (223) - 98
99. (98) New Mexico (18-13, 11-7) (86) - 100
100. (101) Furman (18-8, 12-4) (177) - 99
101. (102) Northern Illinois (17-11, 13-3) (119) - 103
102. (103) Texas-Arlington (20-8, 11-5) (179) - 101
103. (99) Georgia Tech (19-13, 10-10) (107) - 102
104. (94) Washington State (16-16, 5-15) (67) - 104
105. (115) Indiana (15-17, 5-15) (47) - 106
106. (105) Alabama (15-17, 9-9) (55) - 111
107. (110) Army (22-7, 14-2) (243) - 105
108. (107) LSU (11-18, 7-11) (20) - 107
109. (120) UCF (16-16, 10-10) (75) - 108
110. (129) Kent State (18-10, 12-4) (158) - 109
111. (104) Texas State (18-11, 13-3) (130) - 110
112. (116) IUPUI (21-9, 12-4) (224) - 114
113. (109) Hofstra (20-11, 11-5) (173) - 112
114. (122) UNC Greensboro (22-9, 12-4) (208) - 113
115. (114) St. Johns (19-14, 9-9) (112) - 115
116. (108) George Washington (20-10, 9-5) (184) - 117
117. (117) Kennesaw State (17-8, 9-5) (181) - 116
118. (118) College of Charleston (16-14, 8-8) (93) - 118
119. (112) Miami-OH (19-10, 11-5) (206) - 121
120. (123) Southern Miss (23-10, 10-6) (233) - 119
121. (113) North Dakota State (18-12, 9-7) (159) - 120
122. (106) Tulsa (14-18, 9-11) (65) - 122
123. (130) Memphis (20-13, 11-9) (152) - 123
124. (134) Liberty (16-11, 11-3) (160) - 124
125. (128) Seton Hall (14-17, 8-10) (78) - 125

[n00b]

Perhaps one thing to play with is the effect that conference tournaments could have on this. Conference USA (WKU), Sun Belt (Ark State), Big East, Atlantic 10 (Dayton), Missouri Valley, MAC, CAA and Big Sky all have tournaments.

[Deleted]

The weaker the conference, the more negative the affect on the top teams rpi?

[spikerthemovie]

I believe you've mentioned in the past that these projections play out pretty accurately -- 90 percent, maybe? I'm thinking Minnesota must mess up a big chunk of that other ten percent, given that they started the season projected as a 10-10 team in conference play and they're now at 18-2?

[bluepenquin]

Here are the +/- 1 conference wins scenarios:

4. Minnesota (18 Wins-4) (19 Wins-1) (17 Wins-4)
6. Ohio State (15 Wins-6) (16 Wins-5) (14 Wins-6)
7. Penn State (16 Wins-7) (17 Wins-7) (15 Wins-9)
9. Nebraska (16 Wins-8) (17 Wins-7) (15 Wins-11)
11. Wisconsin (14 Wins-11) (15 Wins-8) (13 Wins-13)
28. Illinois (10 Wins-27) (11 Wins-24) (9 Wins-34)
34. Purdue (13 Wins-34) (14 Wins-29) (12 Wins-40)
39. Northwestern (8 Wins-39) (9 Wins-35) (7 Wins-45)
40. Michigan (8 Wins-40) (9 Wins-35) (7 Wins-47)
47. Michigan State (11 Wins-46) (12 Wins-38) (10 Wins-52)



1. USC (19 Wins-1) (20 Wins-1) (18 Wins-4)
5. UCLA (15 Wins-6) (16 Wins-5) (14 Wins-7)
13. Washington (16 Wins-15) (17 Wins-12) (15 Wins-20)
18. Stanford (15 Wins-16) (16 Wins-11) (14 Wins-19)
22. Arizona State (12 Wins-23) (13 Wins-19) (11 Wins-26)
45. Arizona (9 Wins-46) (10 Wins-39) (8 Wins-54)
63. Oregon (8 Wins-67) (9 Wins-61) (7 Wins-84)
66. Colorado (10 Wins-63) (11 Wins-58) (9 Wins-74)



2. Texas (15 Wins-3) (16 Wins-1) (14 Wins-4)
8. Kansas (14 Wins-8) (15 Wins-6) (13 Wins-11)
24. Iowa State (11 Wins-24) (12 Wins-19) (10 Wins-26)
43. Baylor (5 Wins-44) (6 Wins-37) (4 Wins-51)
52. Kansas State (8 Wins-56) (9 Wins-49) (7 Wins-63)
53. TCU (9 Wins-54) (10 Wins-46) (8 Wins-61)



12. BYU (15 Wins-13) (16 Wins-10) (14 Wins-19)
20. San Diego (15 Wins-21) (16 Wins-17) (14 Wins-25)
29. Loyola Marymount (11 Wins-29) (12 Wins-25) (10 Wins-34)
35. Santa Clara (13 Wins-35) (14 Wins-29) (12 Wins-40)
50. Pacific (10 Wins-47) (11 Wins-39) (9 Wins-54)



14. Florida State (19 Wins-13) (20 Wins-10) (18 Wins-18)
16. Louisville (18 Wins-18) (19 Wins-13) (17 Wins-23)
30. North Carolina (16 Wins-30) (17 Wins-26) (15 Wins-35)
44. Miami-FL (14 Wins-41) (15 Wins-35) (13 Wins-48)
49. Virginia (12 Wins-47) (13 Wins-39) (11 Wins-54)
56. Pittsburgh (13 Wins-55) (14 Wins-48) (12 Wins-60)



3. Florida (15 Wins-3) (-) (14 Wins-4)
10. Kentucky (16 Wins-10) (17 Wins-7) (15 Wins-12)
19. Missouri (13 Wins-19) (14 Wins-16) (12 Wins-24)
23. Texas A&M (12 Wiins-21) (13 Wins-16) (11 Wins-25)
36. Arkansas (10 Wins-39) (11 Wins-34) (9 Wins-47)

[bluepenquin]

Oct 26, 2015 21:09:12 GMT -5 n00b said:

Perhaps one thing to play with is the effect that conference tournaments could have on this. Conference USA (WKU), Sun Belt (Ark State), Big East, Atlantic 10 (Dayton), Missouri Valley, MAC, CAA and Big Sky all have tournaments.

In the past, I have done this once the matches are known.  I remember looking at scenarios for the Big East (Marquette at the time) in prior years.  The Conference tournament for the BE was a net positive for the winner - but the BE tournament really shields their teams by making it a 4 team tournament. 

[The Bofa on the Sofa]

So what happens if UNI were to get to 12-6 in the MVC? They get up 10 spots and they are in at-large country by making the Valley finals

[bluepenquin]

Oct 26, 2015 21:25:12 GMT -5 spikerthemovie said:

I believe you've mentioned in the past that these projections play out pretty accurately -- 90 percent, maybe? I'm thinking Minnesota must mess up a big chunk of that other ten percent, given that they started the season projected as a 10-10 team in conference play and they're now at 18-2?

I have never taken a position on the accuracy of any given team's projected wins for the season - or what their final RPI rank will be.  I only claim that the SOS is most likely not going to change much after the 3rd or 4th week and the RPI rank will be reasonably accurate in projecting the final RPI rank for any given final wins and loss.  In other words, the RPI Future would have been reasonably accurate in projecting what MN RPI rank would be after the 3rd week if they won 10 conference games, 14 conference games, or 18 conference games.

[ay2013]

Oct 26, 2015 20:31:15 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

RPI is a projected season ending RPI based on the win probabilities for the remaining games on the schedule using the current Pablo rating.

Projected RPI rank. (LW rank) School (Overall win/loss, Conference win/loss) (SOS rank) - Unadjusted projected RPI rank

1. (1) USC (31-1, 19-1) (36) - 3
2. (2) Texas (25-2, 15-1) (18) - 1
3. (3) Florida (24-4, 15-3) (2) - 2
4. (5) Minnesota (26-4, 18-2) (10) - 4
5. (6) UCLA (24-6, 15-5) (7) - 5
6. (7) Ohio State (26-6, 15-5) (15) - 6
7. (11) Penn State (27-4, 16-4) (37) - 8
8. (8) Kansas (26-2, 14-2) (56) - 7
9. (4) Nebraska (25-5, 16-4) (27) - 9
10. (12) Kentucky (23-7, 16-2) (11) - 10
11. (18) Wisconsin (22-8, 14-6) (9) - 14
12. (9) BYU (25-4, 15-3) (62) - 11
13. (10) Washington (26-4, 16-4) (64) - 13
14. (15) Florida State (26-5, 19-1) (46) - 16
15. (13) Western Kentucky (29-2, 16-0) (81) - 12
16. (16) Louisville (24-6, 18-2) (38) - 18
17. (14) Arkansas State (24-2, 15-1) (95) - 15
18. (23) Stanford (21-7, 15-5) (26) - 20
19. (17) Missouri (25-6, 13-5) (40) - 17
20. (25) San Diego (22-8, 15-3) (25) - 19
21. (19) Creighton (23-8, 17-1) (30) - 22
22. (20) Arizona State (23-8, 12-8) (32) - 21
23. (21) Texas A&M (19-10, 12-6) (5) - 23
24. (26) Iowa State (18-10, 11-5) (8) - 25
25. (22) SMU (29-3, 19-1) (106) - 24
26. (24) Hawaii (25-2, 15-1) (139) - 26
27. (31) Marquette (23-8, 14-4) (50) - 31
28. (27) Illinois (19-12, 10-10) (12) - 32
29. (32) Loyola Marymount (20-10, 11-7) (21) - 28
30. (36) North Carolina (19-10, 16-4) (24) - 33
31. (38) Dayton (23-7, 13-1) (71) - 27
32. (35) Wichita State (25-7, 16-2) (70) - 29
33. (33) Colorado State (25-4, 18-0) (120) - 30
34. (45) Purdue (22-9, 13-7) (51) - 34
35. (41) Santa Clara (22-8, 13-5) (61) - 35
36. (29) Arkansas (20-10, 10-8) (44) - 39
37. (30) Ohio (25-5, 15-1) (123) - 36
38. (34) Villanova (25-6, 15-3) (98) - 37
39. (28) Northwestern (16-15, 8-12) (1) - 43
40. (37) Michigan (18-13, 8-12) (13) - 38
41. (46) James Madison (25-4, 15-1) (143) - 40
42. (44) Idaho State (22-8, 14-2) (79) - 44
43. (40) Baylor (17-13, 5-11) (14) - 41
44. (50) Miami-FL (21-9, 14-6) (54) - 42
45. (39) Arizona (19-13, 9-11) (23) - 45
46. (48) Northern Arizona (24-5, 14-2) (133) - 46
47. (54) Michigan State (19-12, 11-9) (33) - 47
48. (42) Missouri State (21-10, 12-6) (68) - 48
49. (43) Virginia (20-11, 12-8) (42) - 49
50. (49) Pacific (19-11, 10-8) (45) - 50
51. (57) Long Beach State (24-7, 13-3) (135) - 54
52. (53) Kansas State (16-12, 8-8) (29) - 51
53. (55) TCU (19-9, 9-7) (72) - 52
54. (51) Boise State (22-8, 14-4) (103) - 53
55. (52) Wyoming (22-8, 12-6) (109) - 58
56. (47) Pittsburgh (23-9, 13-7) (99) - 55
57. (62) Southern Illinois (21-10, 12-6) (74) - 57
58. (61) Northern Iowa (17-14, 11-7) (34) - 60
59. (67) Illinois State (22-9, 12-6) (104) - 56
60. (56) Lipscomb (20-9, 12-2) (85) - 59
61. (58) Saint Louis (22-8, 11-3) (124) - 65
62. (73) Cleveland State (25-5, 14-2) (209) - 61
63. (64) Oregon (14-15, 8-12) (16) - 62
64. (71) Appalachian State (21-6, 14-2) (169) - 63
65. (72) UNC Wilmington (21-7, 12-4) (155) - 64
66. (91) Colorado (18-14, 10-10) (53) - 69
67. (59) Iowa (14-19, 4-16) (6) - 72
68. (68) Pepperdine (16-15, 7-11) (31) - 68
69. (65) Syracuse (21-10, 12-8) (108) - 66
70. (63) Chattanooga (24-5, 13-3) (237) - 67
71. (60) Loyola-Chicago (22-8, 12-6) (141) - 70
72. (76) Oklahoma (11-17, 5-11) (3) - 73
73. (77) Gonzaga (17-14, 8-10) (39) - 75
74. (74) Florida Gulf Coast (23-8, 12-2) (145) - 71
75. (82) New Mexico State (25-6, 13-1) (236) - 77
76. (84) Texas-San Antonio (22-8, 13-3) (149) - 76
77. (85) Sacramento State (24-7, 11-5) (205) - 82
78. (92) Cincinnati (21-10, 13-7) (111) - 78
79. (69) Temple (23-9, 14-6) (144) - 79
80. (78) Xavier (16-13, 12-6) (57) - 84
81. (81) Coastal Carolina (22-4, 14-0) (256) - 80
82. (96) Ole Miss (22-11, 8-10) (129) - 86
83. (87) Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (28-4, 16-0) (262) - 74
84. (70) Florida Atlantic (18-10, 10-6) (100) - 81
85. (66) Rice (19-11, 9-7) (96) - 83
86. (97) Oakland (18-12, 12-4) (88) - 85
87. (79) American (25-6, 16-0) (228) - 87
88. (89) North Texas (19-12, 11-5) (91) - 88
89. (83) San Francisco (19-12, 6-12) (87) - 89
90. (86) Auburn (16-14, 8-10) (48) - 90
91. (88) Cal Poly (21-6, 13-3) (212) - 91
92. (93) Tennessee (23-10, 9-9) (150) - 94
93. (75) Towson (25-6, 11-5) (246) - 92
94. (100) Rhode Island (19-8, 9-5) (171) - 93
95. (95) Virginia Tech (18-14, 9-11) (76) - 96
96. (111) Duke (15-15, 10-10) (58) - 97
97. (80) Murray State (25-2, 15-1) (299) - 95
98. (90) Denver (24-8, 12-4) (223) - 98
99. (98) New Mexico (18-13, 11-7) (86) - 100
100. (101) Furman (18-8, 12-4) (177) - 99
101. (102) Northern Illinois (17-11, 13-3) (119) - 103
102. (103) Texas-Arlington (20-8, 11-5) (179) - 101
103. (99) Georgia Tech (19-13, 10-10) (107) - 102
104. (94) Washington State (16-16, 5-15) (67) - 104
105. (115) Indiana (15-17, 5-15) (47) - 106
106. (105) Alabama (15-17, 9-9) (55) - 111
107. (110) Army (22-7, 14-2) (243) - 105
108. (107) LSU (11-18, 7-11) (20) - 107
109. (120) UCF (16-16, 10-10) (75) - 108
110. (129) Kent State (18-10, 12-4) (158) - 109
111. (104) Texas State (18-11, 13-3) (130) - 110
112. (116) IUPUI (21-9, 12-4) (224) - 114
113. (109) Hofstra (20-11, 11-5) (173) - 112
114. (122) UNC Greensboro (22-9, 12-4) (208) - 113
115. (114) St. Johns (19-14, 9-9) (112) - 115
116. (108) George Washington (20-10, 9-5) (184) - 117
117. (117) Kennesaw State (17-8, 9-5) (181) - 116
118. (118) College of Charleston (16-14, 8-8) (93) - 118
119. (112) Miami-OH (19-10, 11-5) (206) - 121
120. (123) Southern Miss (23-10, 10-6) (233) - 119
121. (113) North Dakota State (18-12, 9-7) (159) - 120
122. (106) Tulsa (14-18, 9-11) (65) - 122
123. (130) Memphis (20-13, 11-9) (152) - 123
124. (134) Liberty (16-11, 11-3) (160) - 124
125. (128) Seton Hall (14-17, 8-10) (78) - 125

Based on this futures I'd hand down seeds as follows:

1-USC
2-Texas
3-Minnesota
4-Penn State
5-Florida
6-Ohio State
7-Nebraska
8-Kansas
9-Washington
10-UCLA
11-BYU
12-Kentucky
13-Wisconsin
14-Stanford
15-FSU
16-Missouri/Louisville

[bluepenquin]

Oct 26, 2015 21:49:29 GMT -5 The Bofa on the Sofa said:

So what happens if UNI were to get to 12-6 in the MVC? They get up 10 spots and they are in at-large country by making the Valley finals

UNI goes 12-6, then they will be at (approximately) #52. If they win their 1st two matches of the MVC (including Missouri State) and then lose to Wichita State in the finals, they will end up at #43.  Do this with an 11-7 conference record and they will land at #51.

MVC has 6 really good records, so it would be very helpful to play a 1st round game as opposed to a bye. Going 2-1 in the tournament is way more valuable then going just 1-1. Looks like they have some chance of getting 3 teams if Wichita State loses. I don't think they can get 3 if Wichita State wins the tournament?

[bluepenquin]

Oct 26, 2015 21:53:02 GMT -5 ay2013 said:

Oct 26, 2015 20:31:15 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Based on this futures I'd hand down seeds as follows:

1-USC
2-Texas
3-Minnesota
4-Penn State
5-Florida
6-Ohio State
7-Nebraska
8-Kansas
9-Washington
10-UCLA
11-BYU
12-Kentucky
13-Wisconsin
14-Stanford
15-FSU
16-Missouri/Louisville

I love these kind of discussions - here is what I think it will look like (same 16, Louisville instead of Missouri)

1. USC
8. UCLA
9. Ohio State
16. Louisville

2. Texas
7. Nebraska
10. Wisconsin
15. Florida State


3. Minnesota
6. Washington
11. Kansas
14. BYU


4. Penn State
5. Florida
12. Stanford
13. Kentucky

I was thinking of switching #11 and #12 - but could you imagine what people would say about a region that had Penn State, Florida, Kansas, and Kentucky, oh my would there be a lot of howling on that!!!

[c4ndlelight]

Stanford's and Wisconsin's wins this weekend made hypothetical seedings a lot less murky. Though I'm not sure Louisville has an overwhelming edge over WKU - they'll probably end up in the same subregional anyways though.

[Deleted]

Oct 26, 2015 22:22:44 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Oct 26, 2015 21:53:02 GMT -5 ay2013 said:

Based on this futures I'd hand down seeds as follows:

1-USC
2-Texas
3-Minnesota
4-Penn State
5-Florida
6-Ohio State
7-Nebraska
8-Kansas
9-Washington
10-UCLA
11-BYU
12-Kentucky
13-Wisconsin
14-Stanford
15-FSU
16-Missouri/Louisville

I love these kind of discussions - here is what I think it will look like (same 16, Louisville instead of Missouri)

1. USC
8. UCLA
9. Ohio State
16. Louisville

2. Texas
7. Nebraska
10. Wisconsin
15. Florida State


3. Minnesota
6. Washington
11. Kansas
14. BYU


4. Penn State
5. Florida
12. Stanford
13. Kentucky

I was thinking of switching #11 and #12 - but could you imagine what people would say about a region that had Penn State, Florida, Kansas, and Kentucky, oh my would there be a lot of howling on that!!!

That Texas bracket would be tough

[spikerthemovie]

Oct 26, 2015 21:51:38 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Oct 26, 2015 21:25:12 GMT -5 spikerthemovie said:

I believe you've mentioned in the past that these projections play out pretty accurately -- 90 percent, maybe? I'm thinking Minnesota must mess up a big chunk of that other ten percent, given that they started the season projected as a 10-10 team in conference play and they're now at 18-2?

I have never taken a position on the accuracy of any given team's projected wins for the season - or what their final RPI rank will be.  I only claim that the SOS is most likely not going to change much after the 3rd or 4th week and the RPI rank will be reasonably accurate in projecting the final RPI rank for any given final wins and loss.  In other words, the RPI Future would have been reasonably accurate in projecting what MN RPI rank would be after the 3rd week if they won 10 conference games, 14 conference games, or 18 conference games.

Hmm, must be confusing with some other projections. In any case, thanks for the hard work!

[ay2013]

Oct 26, 2015 22:55:34 GMT -5 @boof1224 said:

Oct 26, 2015 22:22:44 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

I love these kind of discussions - here is what I think it will look like (same 16, Louisville instead of Missouri)

1. USC
8. UCLA
9. Ohio State
16. Louisville

2. Texas
7. Nebraska
10. Wisconsin
15. Florida State


3. Minnesota
6. Washington
11. Kansas
14. BYU


4. Penn State
5. Florida
12. Stanford
13. Kentucky

I was thinking of switching #11 and #12 - but could you imagine what people would say about a region that had Penn State, Florida, Kansas, and Kentucky, oh my would there be a lot of howling on that!!!

That Texas bracket would be tough

Why? It doesn't look distinctly more difficult than any other region.