FINALIZED Bracketology (11/28) [includes AQ's]

[HawaiiVB]

okay I'll wait for tomorrow.

[trojansc]

Baylor just swept Kansas State. Makes things a little difficult

[The Bofa on the Sofa]

Nov 28, 2015 21:55:13 GMT -5 octonion said:

Nov 28, 2015 21:41:46 GMT -5 HawaiiVB said:

And what is Hawai'i's percentage ?

I only ran a sample bracket of 16. If you have a bracket you'd like me to run, I'd be happy to do so. But we'll get the official bracket tomorrow.

I don't understand why you are "running a sim." If you have probabilities, calculating the probabilities analytically is pretty easy for a 16 team bracket.

Come this week, I will be calculating final four probabilities for all 64 teams. It's pretty straight-forward.

[bluepenquin]

Nov 28, 2015 22:01:28 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Baylor just swept Kansas State. Makes things a little difficult

I would suggest that if they are going to look at RPI after all games are complete - there is no way K-State gets a bid.  As for Baylor - the RPI will be there, but can only hang their hat on a road win against Dayton?  Probably the best result for other bubble teams.

[octonion]

Nov 28, 2015 22:01:10 GMT -5 The Bofa on the Sofa said:

Nov 28, 2015 21:55:13 GMT -5 octonion said:

I only ran a sample bracket of 16. If you have a bracket you'd like me to run, I'd be happy to do so. But we'll get the official bracket tomorrow.

I don't understand why you are "running a sim." If you have probabilities, calculating the probabilities analytically is pretty easy for a 16 team bracket.

Come this week, I will be calculating final four probabilities for all 64 teams. It's pretty straight-forward.

I'm not running a sim, but people understand the word "sim" and not so much "discrete conditional inner product".

[n00b]

Nov 28, 2015 22:26:55 GMT -5 octonion said:

Nov 28, 2015 22:01:10 GMT -5 The Bofa on the Sofa said:

I don't understand why you are "running a sim." If you have probabilities, calculating the probabilities analytically is pretty easy for a 16 team bracket.

Come this week, I will be calculating final four probabilities for all 64 teams. It's pretty straight-forward.

I'm not running a sim, but people understand the word "sim" and not so much "discrete conditional inner product".

I Googled "discrete conditional inner product" and there were zero results. So people don't know what it means for good reason.

[TuesdayGone]

Really hoping for #4 and #5 seeds to be Washington and Nebraska

Is that possible/likely?

[bluepenquin]

Nov 28, 2015 18:29:50 GMT -5 TuesdayGone said:

So is it likely that Washington and Wisconsin are in same region with #4 and #5 seeds?

Washington and Wisconsin are my 2 picks to win the national championship.....

I think Washington is the best team in country and Wisconsin is arguably playing the best vb in the big ten right now.

I would think that Wisconsin, Washington, & Nebraska will be the 4/5/6 (no idea which order) - but the committee is usually pretty good for surprises.

[octonion]

Nov 28, 2015 22:36:15 GMT -5 n00b said:

Nov 28, 2015 22:26:55 GMT -5 octonion said:

I'm not running a sim, but people understand the word "sim" and not so much "discrete conditional inner product".

I Googled "discrete conditional inner product" and there were zero results. So people don't know what it means for good reason.

That's just my description. You're calculating game outcome probabilities and percolating up the tournament tree.

The algorithm is relatively simple - my code is here: github.com/octonion/volleyball-w/blob/master/ncaa_pbp/tournament/update_round.sql

[huskerjen]

Nov 28, 2015 23:35:15 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Nov 28, 2015 18:29:50 GMT -5 TuesdayGone said:

So is it likely that Washington and Wisconsin are in same region with #4 and #5 seeds?

Washington and Wisconsin are my 2 picks to win the national championship.....

I think Washington is the best team in country and Wisconsin is arguably playing the best vb in the big ten right now.

I would think that Wisconsin, Washington, & Nebraska will be the 4/5/6 (no idea which order) - but the committee is usually pretty good for surprises.

I think with the PSU sweep Nebraska will now get the #4. You had both Nebraska and Wisconsin tied at #4 for RPI given both their wins, correct?

[lionsfan]

Austin: 1. Texas, 2. Texas A&M, 3. Penn State, 4. Hawaii
San Diego: 1. Southern Cal, 2. Kansas, 3. Stanford, 4. BYU
Lexington: 1. Minnesota, 2. Washington, 3. UCLA, 4. Ohio State
Des Moines: 1. Nebraska, 2. Wisconsin, 3. Florida, 4. Missouri

[huskerjen]

Nov 28, 2015 23:59:41 GMT -5 lionsfan said:

Austin: 1. Texas, 2. Texas A&M, 3. Penn State, 4. Hawaii
San Diego: 1. Southern Cal, 2. Kansas, 3. Stanford, 4. BYU
Lexington: 1. Minnesota, 2. Washington, 3. UCLA, 4. Ohio State
Des Moines: 1. Nebraska, 2. Wisconsin, 3. Florida, 4. Missouri

Austin: 1. Texas, 2. Washington, 3. UCLA, 4. Hawaii

San Diego: 1. Southern Cal, 2. Kansas, 3. Stanford, 4. BYU

Lexington: 1. Minnesota, 2. Texas A&M, 3. Penn State, 4. Ohio State

Des Moines: 1. Nebraska, 2. Wisconsin, 3. Florida, 4. Missouri

[spikerthemovie]

Nov 28, 2015 23:58:44 GMT -5 huskerjen said:

Nov 28, 2015 23:35:15 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

I would think that Wisconsin, Washington, & Nebraska will be the 4/5/6 (no idea which order) - but the committee is usually pretty good for surprises.

I think with the PSU sweep Nebraska will now get the #4. You had both Nebraska and Wisconsin tied at #4 for RPI given both their wins, correct?

If that is the scenario, it's very hard to believe the committee won't take a long look at the Wisconsin victory over Nebraska at Nebraska and seed Wisconsin higher.

[huskerjen]

Nov 29, 2015 0:03:53 GMT -5 spikerthemovie said:

Nov 28, 2015 23:58:44 GMT -5 huskerjen said:

I think with the PSU sweep Nebraska will now get the #4. You had both Nebraska and Wisconsin tied at #4 for RPI given both their wins, correct?

If that is the scenario, it's very hard to believe the committee won't take a long look at the Wisconsin victory over Nebraska at Nebraska and seed Wisconsin higher.

In the end it's not going to matter who's 4/5. Same location, same opponent to get into the final 4.

[badgerbreath]

Nov 29, 2015 0:03:53 GMT -5 spikerthemovie said:

Nov 28, 2015 23:58:44 GMT -5 huskerjen said:

I think with the PSU sweep Nebraska will now get the #4. You had both Nebraska and Wisconsin tied at #4 for RPI given both their wins, correct?

If that is the scenario, it's very hard to believe the committee won't take a long look at the Wisconsin victory over Nebraska at Nebraska and seed Wisconsin higher.

I asked BP this a while back. Wisconsin will have a higher RPI, I believe. But we know they don't seed strictly by RPI. I am guessing that the badgers get seeded below Neb, who finished third in the B1G and also finished strong, and Washington who are in a virtual tie for first of the Pac12. That would put them at 6...in line to play who ever is the third seed.  I'm also not entirely sure of the order of the top three seeds, but I'm guessing Texas will be 3rd.