FINALIZED Bracketology (11/28) [includes AQ's]

[bluepenquin]

There are 4 teams that will almost have no chance of a team flying in to play them: Penn State, Ohio State, Missouri, and Louisville. There are 3 more teams that may or may not have teams flying in: Kansas, Nebraska, and Minnesota.

There are 8 teams virtually guaranteed of having teams fly in: USC, BYU, UCLA, Wisconsin, Texas A&M, Texas, Washington, and Stanford. And the best of the teams that will automatically have to fly somewhere: Hawaii, Michigan, Florida State/Miami, Colorado State, Arizona State, North Carolina, Arizona/Oregon/Michigan State. In addition, I think there is a strong probability that either Illinois or Purdue will have to travel (I am guessing it will be Purdue).

I see no reason to assume that Hawaii ends up in Washington. I would think Stanford or BYU are just as or more likely. There are a lot of fly-in options for Washington (Michigan/Purdue/UNC).

[c4ndlelight]

Both Michigan schools can drive to Louisville/Lexington.

[flvoldad]

There are 4 teams that will almost have no chance of a team flying in to play them: Penn State, Ohio State, Missouri, and Louisville. There are 3 more teams that may or may not have teams flying in: Kansas, Nebraska, and Minnesota.

There are 8 teams virtually guaranteed of having teams fly in: USC, BYU, UCLA, Wisconsin, Texas A&M, Texas, Washington, and Stanford. And the best of the teams that will automatically have to fly somewhere: Hawaii, Michigan, Florida State/Miami, Colorado State, Arizona State, North Carolina, Arizona/Oregon/Michigan State. In addition, I think there is a strong probability that either Illinois or Purdue will have to travel (I am guessing it will be Purdue).

I see no reason to assume that Hawaii ends up in Washington. I would think Stanford or BYU are just as or more likely. There are a lot of fly-in options for Washington (Michigan/Purdue/UNC).



I do not believe Florida State will fly into someone's regional for the first 2 games...at worst they will drive to Gainesville to take on Florida...For Missouri,Texas A&M and Kansas all to host first 2 games is a joke

[bluepenquin]

Nov 19, 2015 13:34:18 GMT -5 c4ndlelight said:

Both Michigan schools can drive to Louisville/Lexington.

Yep - I missed them.  They are among 13 other teams that are likely to make the tournament (and not get a seed) that is within driving distance of Louisville.  I guess the  committee would love to have both Louisville and Kentucky host sub regionals.

[bluepenquin]

Nov 19, 2015 13:38:43 GMT -5 flvoldad said:

I do not believe Florida State will fly into someone's regional for the first 2 games...at worst they will drive to Gainesville to take on Florida...For Missouri,Texas A&M and Kansas all to host first 2 games is a joke

Either Miami or Florida State will play @ Florida - the other will have to fly somewhere.

Exactly why Kansas hosting a subregional this year would be a joke?

[c4ndlelight]

Nov 19, 2015 13:38:49 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Nov 19, 2015 13:34:18 GMT -5 c4ndlelight said:

Both Michigan schools can drive to Louisville/Lexington.

Yep - I missed them.  They are among 13 other teams that are likely to make the tournament (and not get a seed) that is within driving distance of Louisville.  I guess the  committee would love to have both Louisville and Kentucky host sub regionals.

I wonder how much the preference to fly Michigan is from being the Big Ten team in that at-large pool closest to a major airport.

I think UK is a longshot right now. 2-7 T25 and 3-9 T50 doesn't seem like it would move the needle enough to leap a bunch of other teams.

[Barefoot In Kailua]

Nov 19, 2015 13:32:32 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

There are 4 teams that will almost have no chance of a team flying in to play them: Penn State, Ohio State, Missouri, and Louisville. There are 3 more teams that may or may not have teams flying in: Kansas, Nebraska, and Minnesota.

There are 8 teams virtually guaranteed of having teams fly in: USC, BYU, UCLA, Wisconsin, Texas A&M, Texas, Washington, and Stanford. And the best of the teams that will automatically have to fly somewhere: Hawaii, Michigan, Florida State/Miami, Colorado State, Arizona State, North Carolina, Arizona/Oregon/Michigan State. In addition, I think there is a strong probability that either Illinois or Purdue will have to travel (I am guessing it will be Purdue).

I see no reason to assume that Hawaii ends up in Washington. I would think Stanford or BYU are just as or more likely. There are a lot of fly-in options for Washington (Michigan/Purdue/UNC).

History is a good indicator. Since 2010, the Committee has sent Hawai'i to Seattle 3 times (2010, 2012, 2014). The other two times (2011,2013) Hawai'i played at home during the first two rounds.

[The Bofa on the Sofa]

Nov 19, 2015 13:53:31 GMT -5 Barefoot In Kailua said:

Nov 19, 2015 13:32:32 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

There are 4 teams that will almost have no chance of a team flying in to play them: Penn State, Ohio State, Missouri, and Louisville. There are 3 more teams that may or may not have teams flying in: Kansas, Nebraska, and Minnesota.

There are 8 teams virtually guaranteed of having teams fly in: USC, BYU, UCLA, Wisconsin, Texas A&M, Texas, Washington, and Stanford. And the best of the teams that will automatically have to fly somewhere: Hawaii, Michigan, Florida State/Miami, Colorado State, Arizona State, North Carolina, Arizona/Oregon/Michigan State. In addition, I think there is a strong probability that either Illinois or Purdue will have to travel (I am guessing it will be Purdue).

I see no reason to assume that Hawaii ends up in Washington. I would think Stanford or BYU are just as or more likely. There are a lot of fly-in options for Washington (Michigan/Purdue/UNC).

History is a good indicator. Since 2010, the Committee has sent Hawai'i to Seattle 3 times (2010, 2012, 2014). The other two times (2011,2013) Hawai'i played at home during the first two rounds.

And before that it was USC, right?

I remember Hawaii got sent to Middle Tennessee one year (they were seeded, but sent out).

[ay2013]

Nov 19, 2015 13:32:32 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

There are 4 teams that will almost have no chance of a team flying in to play them: Penn State, Ohio State, Missouri, and Louisville. There are 3 more teams that may or may not have teams flying in: Kansas, Nebraska, and Minnesota.

There are 8 teams virtually guaranteed of having teams fly in: USC, BYU, UCLA, Wisconsin, Texas A&M, Texas, Washington, and Stanford. And the best of the teams that will automatically have to fly somewhere: Hawaii, Michigan, Florida State/Miami, Colorado State, Arizona State, North Carolina, Arizona/Oregon/Michigan State. In addition, I think there is a strong probability that either Illinois or Purdue will have to travel (I am guessing it will be Purdue).

I see no reason to assume that Hawaii ends up in Washington. I would think Stanford or BYU are just as or more likely. There are a lot of fly-in options for Washington (Michigan/Purdue/UNC).

I think Purdue and Illinois as the unseeded Big 10 teams take spots in Missouri and Louisville (not fair, but I digress). IMO, Michigan will be the unseeded Big 10 team traveling, they always seem to travel.

[vbman100]

Nov 19, 2015 13:53:31 GMT -5 Barefoot In Kailua said:

Nov 19, 2015 13:32:32 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

There are 8 teams virtually guaranteed of having teams fly in: USC, BYU, UCLA, Wisconsin, Texas A&M, Texas, Washington, and Stanford. And the best of the teams that will automatically have to fly somewhere: Hawaii, Michigan, Florida State/Miami, Colorado State, Arizona State, North Carolina, Arizona/Oregon/Michigan State. In addition, I think there is a strong probability that either Illinois or Purdue will have to travel (I am guessing it will be Purdue).

I see no reason to assume that Hawaii ends up in Washington. I would think Stanford or BYU are just as or more likely. There are a lot of fly-in options for Washington (Michigan/Purdue/UNC).

History is a good indicator. Since 2010, the Committee has sent Hawai'i to Seattle 3 times (2010, 2012, 2014). The other two times (2011,2013) Hawai'i played at home during the first two rounds.

In my predicted bracket, I have UCLA hosting as the 12 seed, playing the WAC champ, with Hawaii vs San Diego.

[bluepenquin]

Nov 19, 2015 14:06:09 GMT -5 ay2013 said:

Nov 19, 2015 13:32:32 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

There are 4 teams that will almost have no chance of a team flying in to play them: Penn State, Ohio State, Missouri, and Louisville. There are 3 more teams that may or may not have teams flying in: Kansas, Nebraska, and Minnesota.

There are 8 teams virtually guaranteed of having teams fly in: USC, BYU, UCLA, Wisconsin, Texas A&M, Texas, Washington, and Stanford. And the best of the teams that will automatically have to fly somewhere: Hawaii, Michigan, Florida State/Miami, Colorado State, Arizona State, North Carolina, Arizona/Oregon/Michigan State. In addition, I think there is a strong probability that either Illinois or Purdue will have to travel (I am guessing it will be Purdue).

I see no reason to assume that Hawaii ends up in Washington. I would think Stanford or BYU are just as or more likely. There are a lot of fly-in options for Washington (Michigan/Purdue/UNC).

I think Purdue and Illinois as the unseeded Big 10 teams take spots in Missouri and Louisville (not fair, but I digress). IMO, Michigan will be the unseeded Big 10 team traveling, they always seem to travel.

I am thinking that a Missouri sub regional will have Illinois (or Purdue), Arkansas State, Southern Illinois (Missouri State).  Louisville has so many options that I think there is a good chance that Purdue (Illinois/Michigan) don't make it to Louisville.  Western Kentucky and Kentucky along with a Big 10 team would be a lot for one region.  Kentucky (or Western Kentucky) could go to Ohio State - but Ohio State already has several choices (Dayton, Ohio, Cleveland State, Pittsburgh).  Then there are multitude of potential teams that could drive to Louisville:  Lipscomb, Southern Illinois, IUPUI, schools in Ohio...  I think Purdue (Illinois) go to Louisville only if Kentucky goes to Ohio State.

[trojansc]

Nov 19, 2015 8:36:24 GMT -5 vbman100 said:

Just curious how you chose the Auto-qualifiers. I see some of them are 4th or 5th seeds in their conf tournament. Is the number in ( ) the RPI or Pablo?

The number in parentheses is the RPI Ranking.

I chose the projected auto qualifiers based on results, how I think the teams match up, etc.

If you think about it, there's 22 conference tournaments. I projected the #1 seed to win 17 of those tournaments. I think that's a pretty fair number.

Here are the teams I projected to take down the #1 seed in conference tournament:

Albany #2 seed
UNC wilmington #3 seed
Rider #5 seed
Bryant #3 seed
IUPUI #2 seed

Sure, maybe I'm wrong on Rider, but actually the MAAC Tournament is pretty unpredictable. Not a high level of volleyball at all. UNC Wilmington and Bryant as #3 seeds are my dark-horse picks, upsets happen. IUPUI and Albany have a very good chance as #2 seeds. Albany actually went 11-1 in conference.

I also think that Wichita State, Dayton and Ohio are teams that I think may be upset in their conference tournament.

Conference tournaments are weird. Like, they just started today, and already #7 seed Idaho is about to upset #2 North Dakota in the Big Sky Tournament.

[flvoldad]

Either Miami or Florida State will play @ Florida - the other will have to fly somewhere.

Exactly why Kansas hosting a subregional this year would be a joke?


It's a joke because you can't have 4-6 teams hosting first 2 games when they are within less than 200 miles....you can't fly Florida State as a 20 AVCA and 22 RPI to Austin, Missouri, Louisville or Kansas...its ridiculous...there is a seeding issue 1 thru 64...you aren't going to drop a top 20 team just so all those midwestern schools host..RPI isn't the only factor...

[c4ndlelight]

Nov 19, 2015 14:25:46 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Nov 19, 2015 14:06:09 GMT -5 ay2013 said:

I think Purdue and Illinois as the unseeded Big 10 teams take spots in Missouri and Louisville (not fair, but I digress). IMO, Michigan will be the unseeded Big 10 team traveling, they always seem to travel.

I am thinking that a Missouri sub regional will have Illinois (or Purdue), Arkansas State, Southern Illinois (Missouri State).  Louisville has so many options that I think there is a good chance that Purdue (Illinois/Michigan) don't make it to Louisville.  Western Kentucky and Kentucky along with a Big 10 team would be a lot for one region.  Kentucky (or Western Kentucky) could go to Ohio State - but Ohio State already has several choices (Dayton, Ohio, Cleveland State, Pittsburgh).  Then there are multitude of potential teams that could drive to Louisville:  Lipscomb, Southern Illinois, IUPUI, schools in Ohio...  I think Purdue (Illinois) go to Louisville only if Kentucky goes to Ohio State.

You have to add Penn St. to the mix. I can see them pulling Pitt at the least. They are going to need to fly some very-low RPI Northeast AQs for first round matchups against seeded teams in the Upper Midwest (who do you have playing KS/NE/MN in the first round?) and West Coast, as most of the AQs are at-large quality. It doesn't add to total number of flights.

[bluepenquin]

Nov 19, 2015 14:46:47 GMT -5 c4ndlelight said:

Nov 19, 2015 14:25:46 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

I am thinking that a Missouri sub regional will have Illinois (or Purdue), Arkansas State, Southern Illinois (Missouri State).  Louisville has so many options that I think there is a good chance that Purdue (Illinois/Michigan) don't make it to Louisville.  Western Kentucky and Kentucky along with a Big 10 team would be a lot for one region.  Kentucky (or Western Kentucky) could go to Ohio State - but Ohio State already has several choices (Dayton, Ohio, Cleveland State, Pittsburgh).  Then there are multitude of potential teams that could drive to Louisville:  Lipscomb, Southern Illinois, IUPUI, schools in Ohio...  I think Purdue (Illinois) go to Louisville only if Kentucky goes to Ohio State.

You have to add Penn St. to the mix. I can see them pulling Pitt at the least. They are going to need to fly some very-low RPI Northeast AQs for first round matchups against seeded teams in the Upper Midwest (who do you have playing KS/NE/MN in the first round?) and West Coast, as most of the AQs are at-large quality. It doesn't add to total number of flights.

Agree - it will not add the number of flights if Purdue drives and a NE AQ has to fly.  Many of those AQ's are close enough to Penn State - it is just a matter of how easy they want to make that sub regional.  I am guessing PSU will have Pittsburgh, Villanova, and a NE AQ.  If Villanova doesn't make it, then probably 2 NE AQ's.  That leaves for Ohio State: Dayton, Ohio (if they make it), Cleveland State (if they make it), or a NE AQ (American) - or Kentucky.

Having Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, Minnesota, and Wisconsin close enough to many of the same teams - I am guessing that most road traveling teams will be going North.  This makes Iowa State and or Creighton candidates for Minnesota.  Kansas State (has to go to NE if they make it) and Wichita State become candidates for Nebraska, and Missouri State and Arkansas (has to go to KS if they make it) candidates for Kansas.  They could either send a team like Arizona State to Kansas, or push those teams down from Minnesota and send ASU to Minnesota.  I am guessing ASU goes to Kansas and Iowa State goes to MN.  There is a LOT of different options for KS/NE/MN.