|
|
Post by maplespear on Jul 14, 2016 13:18:04 GMT -5
We have a very good chance of winning. That recent 5th set was error prone. Brazil's gonna have a lot of pressure to deal with. Ya'll are betting that Brazil can pull this off? imo
|
|
|
|
Post by bowtastic on Jul 14, 2016 14:25:13 GMT -5
We were favored in London and should have won...easily.
Sorry to beat a dead horse here...but without another hitter (fawcett), they are going to have a hard time making top 4. Some might say and think that the 12th person on the team shouldn't make a difference in the medal standing, but in Karch's system...it does.
He might have taken Thompson for her leadership, fire, etc. But I feel those roles are met with Foluke, Dietzen and Larson. We need another OH that will not be afraid to break a few teeth if necessary to win a point when needed. That is what Fawcett can bring. An aggressive and strong outside hitting position.
Maybe top 4, playing for Bronze, but I'm not sure they will even get to that match. Top 5.
Brasil for sure is the favorite...especially and mainly because they are at home and they are going to feed off that crazy crowd.
China/Serbia/Russia will fight for the silver and bronze. China and Serbia are my picks for the other two medals.
|
|
|
|
Post by trianglevolleyball on Jul 14, 2016 14:58:51 GMT -5
We were favored in London and should have won...easily. Sorry to beat a dead horse here...but without another hitter (fawcett), they are going to have a hard time making top 4. Some might say and think that the 12th person on the team shouldn't make a difference in the medal standing, but in Karch's system...it does. He might have taken Thompson for her leadership, fire, etc. But I feel those roles are met with Foluke, Dietzen and Larson. We need another OH that will not be afraid to break a few teeth if necessary to win a point when needed. That is what Fawcett can bring. An aggressive and strong outside hitting position. Maybe top 4, playing for Bronze, but I'm not sure they will even get to that match. Top 5. Brasil for sure is the favorite...especially and mainly because they are at home and they are going to feed off that crazy crowd. China/Serbia/Russia will fight for the silver and bronze. China and Serbia are my picks for the other two medals. What has Serbia shown that you think is getting them a medal? In your scenario is the USA finishing 3rd in pool? I can't see the United States doing worse than 4-1 in pool play. That would get us a match likely against South Korea or Japan, a possible loss but not very likely. The thing with Serbia is that unless the players are playing significantly more consistent than they have in 2016, they just don't have the capability to beat multiple good teams in consecutive matches. They are a huge threat i=to get hot any one day however, which is why we're lucky they're in our ppool, hopefully they can take out Russia or Brazil in the quarters. In other news, Russia's toast unless Kosheleva gets back to form. |
|
|
|
Post by c4ndlelight on Jul 14, 2016 15:12:56 GMT -5
We were favored in London and should have won...easily. Sorry to beat a dead horse here...but without another hitter (fawcett), they are going to have a hard time making top 4. Some might say and think that the 12th person on the team shouldn't make a difference in the medal standing, but in Karch's system...it does. He might have taken Thompson for her leadership, fire, etc. But I feel those roles are met with Foluke, Dietzen and Larson. We need another OH that will not be afraid to break a few teeth if necessary to win a point when needed. That is what Fawcett can bring. An aggressive and strong outside hitting position. Maybe top 4, playing for Bronze, but I'm not sure they will even get to that match. Top 5. Brasil for sure is the favorite...especially and mainly because they are at home and they are going to feed off that crazy crowd. China/Serbia/Russia will fight for the silver and bronze. China and Serbia are my picks for the other two medals. What has Serbia shown that you think is getting them a medal? In your scenario is the USA finishing 3rd in pool? I can't see the United States doing worse than 4-1 in pool play. That would get us a match likely against South Korea or Japan, a possible loss but not very likely. The thing with Serbia is that unless the players are playing significantly more consistent than they have in 2016, they just don't have the capability to beat multiple good teams in consecutive matches. They are a huge threat i=to get hot any one day however, which is why we're lucky they're in our ppool, hopefully they can take out Russia or Brazil in the quarters. In other news, Russia's toast unless Kosheleva gets back to form. Serbia went 5-1, with wins against Brazil, Russia, and Japan it's only loss a 5 setter against China in China with its A-caliber players in the WGP despite not really playing the full "A-team" together that much, on top of finishing 2nd in WCup last fall. They've got the best setter in the tournament, a ton of terminators and elite middles. I think that's plenty to show they can win a medal. |
|
|
|
Post by trianglevolleyball on Jul 14, 2016 15:41:56 GMT -5
What has Serbia shown that you think is getting them a medal? In your scenario is the USA finishing 3rd in pool? I can't see the United States doing worse than 4-1 in pool play. That would get us a match likely against South Korea or Japan, a possible loss but not very likely. The thing with Serbia is that unless the players are playing significantly more consistent than they have in 2016, they just don't have the capability to beat multiple good teams in consecutive matches. They are a huge threat i=to get hot any one day however, which is why we're lucky they're in our ppool, hopefully they can take out Russia or Brazil in the quarters. In other news, Russia's toast unless Kosheleva gets back to form. Serbia went 5-1, with wins against Brazil, Russia, and Japan it's only loss a 5 setter against China in China with its A-caliber players in the WGP despite not really playing the full "A-team" together that much, on top of finishing 2nd in WCup last fall. They've got the best setter in the tournament, a ton of terminators and elite middles. I think that's plenty to show they can win a medal. The Japan team with Tanaka, Inoue and Ebata on the pins, right? Out of a possible 18 points, Serbia only got 12 over that stretch of 6 games since their only win that wasn't 3-2 was over Thailand. They seemed like a mess throughout the tournament at the OH2 position, I think Mihaljovic and Boskovic are too streaky and out of practice in their respective positions to rely upon if passing breaks down and the middles can't get involved (which they weren't at all during WGP). They needed more reps as a full A-team that they didn't get, their lineup isn't really worked out and Ognjenovic wasn't connecting. I agree they have the potential but I definitely wouldn't put money on them over the US. Especially not in pool play, where they'll have more trouble with Italy and the Dutch than the US and China will. |
|
|
|
Post by volleyguy on Jul 14, 2016 15:51:06 GMT -5
Serbia went 5-1, with wins against Brazil, Russia, and Japan it's only loss a 5 setter against China in China with its A-caliber players in the WGP despite not really playing the full "A-team" together that much, on top of finishing 2nd in WCup last fall. They've got the best setter in the tournament, a ton of terminators and elite middles. I think that's plenty to show they can win a medal. The Japan team with Tanaka, Inoue and Ebata on the pins, right? Out of a possible 18 points, Serbia only got 12 over that stretch of 6 games since their only win that wasn't 3-2 was over Thailand. They seemed like a mess throughout the tournament at the OH2 position, I think Mihaljovic and Boskovic are too streaky and out of practice in their respective positions to rely upon if passing breaks down and the middles can't get involved (which they weren't at all during WGP). They needed more reps as a full A-team that they didn't get, their lineup isn't really worked out and Ognjenovic wasn't connecting. I agree they have the potential but I definitely wouldn't put money on them over the US. Especially not in pool play, where they'll have more trouble with Italy and the Dutch than the US and China will. In the past, Serbia would have lost those matches. Despite their inconsistency, they have greater confidence because they have beaten the good teams recently. They're perfectly capable of beating Italy and Netherlands. Serbia is dangerous because they match up well with the best teams, and if they reach the cross-over round, they can upset anyone. |
|
|
|
Post by c4ndlelight on Jul 14, 2016 15:58:02 GMT -5
Serbia went 5-1, with wins against Brazil, Russia, and Japan it's only loss a 5 setter against China in China with its A-caliber players in the WGP despite not really playing the full "A-team" together that much, on top of finishing 2nd in WCup last fall. They've got the best setter in the tournament, a ton of terminators and elite middles. I think that's plenty to show they can win a medal. The Japan team with Tanaka, Inoue and Ebata on the pins, right? Out of a possible 18 points, Serbia only got 12 over that stretch of 6 games since their only win that wasn't 3-2 was over Thailand. They seemed like a mess throughout the tournament at the OH2 position, I think Mihaljovic and Boskovic are too streaky and out of practice in their respective positions to rely upon if passing breaks down and the middles can't get involved (which they weren't at all during WGP). They needed more reps as a full A-team that they didn't get, their lineup isn't really worked out and Ognjenovic wasn't connecting. I agree they have the potential but I definitely wouldn't put money on them over the US. Especially not in pool play, where they'll have more trouble with Italy and the Dutch than the US and China will. Serbia got the reps they wanted (they could have qualified for the Finals if they wanted)and will have had 2 months to peak for the Olympics. Boskovic and Mihajlovic combined for 56 points against Brazil, they can't be that bad. The lineup is pretty solidly worked out apart from L2, and even then, a lot of teams have worse options there than Malasevic and Nikolic. |
|
|
|
Post by Sbilo on Jul 14, 2016 15:59:30 GMT -5
I'm guessing Serbia might be 2nd or 3rd on that pool... possibly ahead of Italy and definitely ahead of Netherlands. With 5 very good teams in Pool A, its going to be a dog fight as to who get its into the top 4 and goes into the quarterfinals. Obviously, Russia and Brazil would have no trouble taking the first 2 spots in the other pool... and come quarterfinals rounds it would be possible that both Russia and Brazil are capable of being beaten by the 3rd and 4th team from Pool A.
|
|
|
|
Post by Sbilo on Jul 14, 2016 16:44:53 GMT -5
And I would say that Serbia likes to beat US in the biggest of stages. Especially with weaker pin hitters compared to London, USA is very vulnerable to a very physical Serbian Team in the pool play. I won't be surprised if the Americans lose their pool play match to Serbia in 4 or 5 sets.
|
|
|
|
Post by trianglevolleyball on Jul 14, 2016 17:13:18 GMT -5
And I would say that Serbia likes to beat US in the biggest of stages. Especially with weaker pin hitters compared to London, USA is very vulnerable to a very physical Serbian Team in the pool play. I won't be surprised if the Americans lose their pool play match to Serbia in 4 or 5 sets. I keep seeing that Serbia beats the US on big stages on here (or maybe you just keep writing it) and I'm trying to think where the evidence for that is. How many years had it been since the US lost to Serbia before the World Cup? Was it even this quad? They simply haven't made final rounds of international tourneys to even play the US. I could see Serbia beating the US on a good day, likely in 5. However I also know they're gonna slip up on bad days since they lack depth on the pins. I just don't see them finishing ahead of the US in pool unless Malesevic or Nikolic plays much better than they did in WGP and throughout last season. Having Mihaljovic and Boskovic put up 60 points in order to squeak out 5 setters isn't a reliable strategy and without good passing this team turns into Russia lite. |
|
|
|
Post by SaltNPepper on Jul 14, 2016 20:33:33 GMT -5
We have a very good chance of winning. That recent 5th set was error prone. Brazil's gonna have a lot of pressure to deal with. Ya'll are betting that Brazil can pull this off? imo Here's what I don't understand. When the NCAA holds their Championship in Omaha, most (or at least many) people say that gives the Huskers a great chance of winning it all with their "home court advantage". But with Brazil having the Olympics in Rio, are you're saying the pressure of playing "at home" decrease their chance of winning the gold? |
|
|
|
Post by Gilmoy on Jul 14, 2016 23:44:47 GMT -5
Brasil's fans are kind of nuts. Being only a Husker does not prepare you for that culture shock  Y'all sit down in seats, come fully dressed with no face paint, don't wear Speedos with Husker flags like capes, and think noisemaker means thunderstix  And you meekly allow section guards to guide (herd) you into the cheap seats that match your ticket stubs, instead of assigning ten advance scouts to fully occupy the ten section guards while 800 of your collaborators stream past them from the upper bowl to the lower "reserved" bowl. (Hey those guards earned their pay, they stopped 1 Brasilian each, per night)More seriously ... Being Olympic favorite is a different tier of pressure than a once-per-year event. On top of that, very few nations have won three Olympic golds in a row (only Cuba?), so that stacks a bit of apotheosis-to-pantheon pressure to deliver. College sports fans tend to restrain themselves from vitriol: we generally treat students with kid gloves, so we say supportive things, or say nothing. Hence, playing at home strictly increases the support base. At pro levels, it's different: if you fail (or even before), haters can tear you down (c.f. presidential elections, ahem). Opposing teams' fans may do weird things to disrupt your sleep cycles, etc. Finally, Rio has ... problems. Rio'16 is one vast problem stacked on top of those. It'd be a storybook ending to win everything, deliver a flawless spectacle, and then (after the crowd leaves) really fix some things. It could quite easily go much worse. Those are systemic pressures unlike anything USA has seen in ... centuries, if ever. The closest analogue might be Japan woso at the 2011 FIFA WWC, right after the tsunami: they did get their storybook ending, and it did help the rebuilders feel a little better. Having your attempt-at-gold demoted to a footnote of something bigger is a kind of pressure, too. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2016 11:23:22 GMT -5
How does one guess the chances? Like, can't we already figure out the chances as well as the chances can be figured out prior to the start of the competition?
If you're guessing how many times out of 100 a penny lands heads up, you're guessing how many times the penny will actually land heads up. You're not guessing the chances - the chances are about 51% that it'll land on whatever side was facing up when it was flipped. We already know that - no need to guess.
|
|
|
|
Post by hochee on Jul 15, 2016 11:31:25 GMT -5
Only in the sense it's the opinion of some dude who lives in LV. |
|
|
|
Post by maplespear on Jul 15, 2016 12:39:42 GMT -5
The Americans have to believe they can win against Brazil in Brazil, that's the bottom line, and a little bit of luck.
|
|
And you meekly allow section guards to guide (herd) you into the cheap seats that match your ticket stubs, instead of assigning ten advance scouts to fully occupy the ten section guards while 800 of your collaborators stream past them from the upper bowl to the lower "reserved" bowl. (Hey those guards earned their pay, they stopped 1 Brasilian each, per night)