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Post by redbeard2008 on Nov 26, 2016 19:29:18 GMT -5
Why wouldn't Wash get credit for the Hawaii win? Last I saw from Blue Penguin and Figstats, Hawaii was in the top 25 RPI now. As of 11/21, Hawaii is #28 in RPI, unadjusted. If they can edge into the top 25, that would certainly help UW. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 26, 2016 19:42:44 GMT -5
Why wouldn't Wash get credit for the Hawaii win? Last I saw from Blue Penguin and Figstats, Hawaii was in the top 25 RPI now. As of 11/21, Hawaii is #28 in RPI, unadjusted. If they can edge into the top 25, that would certainly help UW. As I stated in my post, those sources have Hawaii in the top 25 now. Blue Penguin futures has them at 25 as of 11/24 (see page 16 of this thread) and the Figstats calculations has them at 21 as of today. |
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Post by redbeard2008 on Nov 26, 2016 19:57:10 GMT -5
As of 11/21, Hawaii is #28 in RPI, unadjusted. If they can edge into the top 25, that would certainly help UW. As I stated in my post, those sources have Hawaii in the top 25 now. Blue Penguin futures has them at 25 as of 11/24 (see page 16 of this thread) and the Figstats calculations has them at 21 as of today. Those are projected ("future") RPI. I don't believe that they include the NCAA's adjustments. As of now, Hawaii is #28, at least until the next RPI report. As I said, if Hawaii does end up at #25, that would certainly help UW - I think Hawaii is a Top 15, if not a Top 10, team. In the most recent NCAA Nitty-Gritty that was posted here, Hawaii's "original" RPI ranking was #25, but its "adjusted" RPI ranking was #28. extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/Stats%20Library/16%20VB%20Nitty%20Gritty%20thru%20Nov%2020.pdf |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 26, 2016 20:17:54 GMT -5
I get that but the projected RPI is what the committee will use not what was stated on 11/21. Figstats has Hawaii NOW at 23 with the bonuses.
Anyway, I think Washington will get the 4th seed regardless.
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Post by redbeard2008 on Nov 26, 2016 20:31:30 GMT -5
I get that but the projected RPI is what the committee will use not what was stated on 11/21. Figstats has Hawaii NOW at 23 with the bonuses. Anyway, I think Washington will get the 4th seed regardless. I understand, and hope you're right. It is still a projection, and thus not necessarily what the NCAA will be working with. I like the idea of being paired with Kansas at #4/#5, whether hosting the regional or not. Hard to tell what the Committee will do. I'm still questioning whether they will give three Big Ten teams Top 4 seeds. |
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Post by vballfannbama on Nov 26, 2016 22:30:25 GMT -5
I get that but the projected RPI is what the committee will use not what was stated on 11/21. Figstats has Hawaii NOW at 23 with the bonuses. Anyway, I think Washington will get the 4th seed regardless. I understand, and hope you're right. It is still a projection, and thus not necessarily what the NCAA will be working with. I like the idea of being paired with Kansas at #4/#5, whether hosting the regional or not. Hard to tell what the Committee will do. I'm still questioning whether they will give three Big Ten teams Top 4 seeds. I think they will give the Big 10 three of the top 4 seeds...those three teams proved how good they were all year long |
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Post by Babar on Nov 26, 2016 22:36:19 GMT -5
The Commitee has been very friendly to Texas through the years. My pick is Three BIGs and Texas.
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Post by c4ndlelight on Nov 26, 2016 22:38:11 GMT -5
Illinois' RPI is down to 56 in the latest RPI from figstats. That's quite low, and I don't know if they have the same trajectory/story Michigan St. did last year (3-7 in last 10, 2 of the wins were MD/Rutgers with a loss to Iowa in there). They need to hope the Committee is rough on the MWC and willing to overlook a 20+ differential in RPI between them and UNLV.
They lost to Missouri St. H2H, which would also hurt.
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Nov 27, 2016 4:24:14 GMT -5
This will be finalized very soon, but I am still stuck on a couple at-large bids.
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Nov 27, 2016 7:30:15 GMT -5
OK - this is finished and finalized. I've never missed more than one at-large, so if your team's name is on the OUT list, you should probably be pretty worried.
First comment on seeding:
Wisconsin, Nebraska, Minny deserve the top 3. No doubt about it.
I couldn't decide on Kansas/Washington at 4/5. For me, I picked KU. Kansas has the best win, and not as many losses. The RPI also thinks the Big 12 is the second best conference. For those reasons, I had to lean KU.
I think UCLA gets a higher seed than their RPI indicates, Florida drops. There could be a big range for UNC - I'm not quite sure what the committee is going to think of North Carolina. I could definitely be wrong.
Now, for the final seeds, it came down to the last two spots. For those, I had San Diego, Creighton, Kansas State, and Kentucky competing for them. Creighton has no T25 wins and H2H losses to Kansas St. AND Kentucky. So I couldn't see them getting it. San Diego has 3 wins over seeded teams -- I didn't expect them to get a seed but I think it's going to happen. The last choice was between KSU and Kentucky. I chose KSU because they have more total top 50 wins, even though Kentucky's wins might be better. KSU also has a better RPI. i wouldn't be surprised if Kentucky gets a seed but not KSU. I also won't be surprised if USD is unseeded.
The At-Larges were okay until I got to the Last four.
I still think Miami(OH), Cincy, and Colorado State are in. i don't think you can leave them out, particularly if you have UNLV in.
So the last bid came down to four teams, and I literally found an argument for each four. But I decided to stick with UNLV, because when in doubt, RPI rules. I couldn't distinguish what is the best resume of these:
Temple
Record: (22-8, 15-5)
RPI: 47
Non-Conf RPI: 92
Record against Top 50 RPI: 2-3
Record against 1-25 RPI: 0-0
Record against 26-50 RPI: 2-3
Record against 51-100 RPI: 6-3
Record against 101-150 RPI: 4-1
Significant Wins: 30 SMU, 37 Cincinnati, 62 UCF
Significant Losses: 115 USF, 168 Virginia Tech
Last 10 games: 8-2
Illinois
Record: (17-14, 10-10)
RPI: 56
Non-Conf RPI: 64
Record against Top 50 RPI: 3-12
Record against 1-25 RPI: 1-9
Record against 26-50 RPI: 2-3
Record against 51-100 RPI: 4-2
Record against 101-150 RPI: 2-0
Significant Wins: 15 Michigan State, 28 Purdue, 34 Ohio State
Significant Losses: NONE
Last 10 games: 3-7
UNLV
Record: (23-7, 12-6)
RPI: 33
Non-Conf RPI: 12
Record against Top 50 RPI: 1-4
Record against 1-25 RPI: 0-1
Record against 26-50 RPI: 1-3
Record against 51-100 RPI: 5-3
Record against 101-150 RPI: 9-0
Significant Wins: 32 Boise State
Significant Losses: NONE
Last 10 games: 5-5
Alabama
Record: (20-11, 9-9)
RPI: 53
Non-Conf RPI: 36
Record against Top 50 RPI: 2-6
Record against 1-25 RPI: 0-5
Record against 26-50 RPI: 2-1
Record against 51-100 RPI: 3-3
Record against 101-150 RPI: 4-1
Significant Wins: 26 Texas A&M, 47 Temple
Significant Losses: 114 Auburn, 163 Mississippi State
Last 10 Games: 5-5
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Post by bprtbone on Nov 27, 2016 7:41:59 GMT -5
This is such great work, thank you trojansc! I am with your picks 100% until that last one. Give me Temple over UNLV for spot 64.
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Post by dawgs4life on Nov 27, 2016 8:34:22 GMT -5
Penn St. in Seattle... yikes.
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Post by gobruins on Nov 27, 2016 8:56:56 GMT -5
You have Texas A&M in the bracket twice. Going to Stanford and Texas. Not sure who you may have left out.
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Post by tomclen on Nov 27, 2016 9:04:39 GMT -5
Can we just have TrojanSC do the brackets? Think how much money, time and effort the NCAA could save.
(Although, I would do a VT rant about sending PSU to Seattle in subregional)
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Nov 27, 2016 9:13:21 GMT -5
You have Texas A&M in the bracket twice. Going to Stanford and Texas. Not sure who you may have left out. Fixed |
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