2016 Bracketology (FINALIZED) 11/27

[rainbowbadger]

In still not convinced the committee doesn't look at last night's collapse and say, "why would we put the 3rd place Big Ten team in the top 4 when we could get a West Coast regional? Who has Wisconsin even beaten, anyway?" And drop us to 5 and send us to Seatte.

[spikerthemovie]

I can't see that, especially since the committee has such a rich history of ignoring the final day of play

[Millennium]

Nov 27, 2016 9:04:39 GMT -5 tomclen said:

Although, I would do a VT rant about sending PSU to Seattle in subregional.    

Time to pay the piper Tom.

Muahahahahaha!!! 

Something about PSU always getting cupcakes in the first 2 rounds.
Time to see if your Huskies can knock 'em out early.

[tomclen]

Nov 27, 2016 9:19:33 GMT -5 Millennium said:

Nov 27, 2016 9:04:39 GMT -5 tomclen said:

Although, I would do a VT rant about sending PSU to Seattle in subregional.    

Time to pay the piper Tom.

Muahahahahaha!!! 

Something about PSU always getting cupcakes in the first 2 rounds.
Time to see if your Huskies can knock 'em out early.

I didn't care for PSU's last visit to Seattle. They were rude guests.

[Millennium]

Nov 27, 2016 9:22:25 GMT -5 tomclen said:

Nov 27, 2016 9:19:33 GMT -5 Millennium said:

Time to pay the piper Tom.

Muahahahahaha!!! 

Something about PSU always getting cupcakes in the first 2 rounds.
Time to see if your Huskies can knock 'em out early.

I didn't care for PSU's last visit to Seattle. They were rude guests.

I don't mind being the underdogs for this year. 
It's nice to not have the pressure and expectation of winning. 

[bluepenquin]

Nov 27, 2016 9:14:36 GMT -5 rainbowbadger said:

In still not convinced the committee doesn't look at last night's collapse and say, "why would we put the 3rd place Big Ten team in the top 4 when we could get a West Coast regional? Who has Wisconsin even beaten, anyway?" And drop us to 5 and send us to Seatte.

We are starting a new world with regional hosts - but recent history:

1) The committee seems not to care about where teams from the same conference are seeded.  They follow an independent evaluation and just rank the teams.
2) Using the committee criteria - Nebraska, Minnesota, and Wisconsin have put themselves so far ahead of any other team that it seems like they are now all locks for a top 4 seed (but this could be wrong?).

However, placing a west coast team as a top 4 seed 'may' be a priority - but even having time zone balance among the top 4 doesn't guarantee that they will win their sub regional and be able to host.  But if they choose to go with a West team for the top 4 - I think they will consider Texas as being the team out and not one of the B1G teams.

[bball]

i don't see them not putting WIS as a top 4 seed! they def deserve it!

[bluepenquin]

Nov 27, 2016 7:30:15 GMT -5 trojansc said:

OK - this is finished and finalized. I've never missed more than one at-large, so if your team's name is on the OUT list, you should probably be pretty worried.

First comment on seeding:

Wisconsin, Nebraska, Minny deserve the top 3. No doubt about it.

I couldn't decide on Kansas/Washington at 4/5. For me, I picked KU. Kansas has the best win, and not as many losses. The RPI also thinks the Big 12 is the second best conference. For those reasons, I had to lean KU.

I think UCLA gets a higher seed than their RPI indicates, Florida drops. There could be a big range for UNC - I'm not quite sure what the committee is going to think of North Carolina. I could definitely be wrong.


Now, for the final seeds, it came down to the last two spots. For those, I had San Diego, Creighton, Kansas State, and Kentucky competing for them. Creighton has no T25 wins and H2H losses to Kansas St. AND Kentucky. So I couldn't see them getting it. San Diego has 3 wins over seeded teams -- I didn't expect them to get a seed but I think it's going to happen. The last choice was between KSU and Kentucky. I chose KSU because they have more total top 50 wins, even though Kentucky's wins might be better. KSU also has a better RPI. i wouldn't be surprised if Kentucky gets a seed but not KSU. I also won't be surprised if USD is unseeded.



The At-Larges were okay until I got to the Last four.
I still think Miami(OH), Cincy, and Colorado State are in. i don't think you can leave them out, particularly if you have UNLV in.

So the last bid came down to four teams, and I literally found an argument for each four. But I decided to stick with UNLV, because when in doubt, RPI rules. I couldn't distinguish what is the best resume of these:
Temple
Record: (22-8, 15-5)
RPI: 47
Non-Conf RPI: 92
Record against Top 50 RPI: 2-3
Record against 1-25 RPI: 0-0
Record against 26-50 RPI: 2-3
Record against 51-100 RPI: 6-3
Record against 101-150 RPI: 4-1
Significant Wins: 30 SMU, 37 Cincinnati, 62 UCF
Significant Losses: 115 USF, 168 Virginia Tech
Last 10 games: 8-2

Illinois
Record: (17-14, 10-10)
RPI: 56
Non-Conf RPI: 64
Record against Top 50 RPI: 3-12
Record against 1-25 RPI: 1-9
Record against 26-50 RPI: 2-3
Record against 51-100 RPI: 4-2
Record against 101-150 RPI: 2-0
Significant Wins: 15 Michigan State, 28 Purdue, 34 Ohio State
Significant Losses: NONE
Last 10 games: 3-7

UNLV
Record: (23-7, 12-6)
RPI: 33
Non-Conf RPI: 12
Record against Top 50 RPI: 1-4
Record against 1-25 RPI: 0-1
Record against 26-50 RPI: 1-3
Record against 51-100 RPI: 5-3
Record against 101-150 RPI: 9-0
Significant Wins: 32 Boise State
Significant Losses: NONE
Last 10 games: 5-5

Alabama
Record: (20-11, 9-9)
RPI: 53
Non-Conf RPI: 36
Record against Top 50 RPI: 2-6
Record against 1-25 RPI: 0-5
Record against 26-50 RPI: 2-1
Record against 51-100 RPI: 3-3
Record against 101-150 RPI: 4-1
Significant Wins: 26 Texas A&M, 47 Temple
Significant Losses: 114 Auburn, 163 Mississippi State
Last 10 Games: 5-5

Making Kansas State a seed instead of Creighton - I think makes it very likely that Creighton will go to Kansas State instead of Kansas.  There are other options for Wichita State (Kansas, Nebraska, Missouri).  Kentucky being a seed pretty much puts Creighton in Kansas and Kansas State in Nebraska (ouch). 

There are couple options - but with this Hawaii, Penn State, Ohio State, and TCU go to UCLA, Washington, Stanford, San Diego.  All of these would/could be interchangeable.  Given Washington's higher seed - I wouldn't think Hawaii or Penn State would be going there?

[vbnerd]

That looks like around 25 flights, which sounds like a lot.

I don't see any obvious solutions to cut that back but I think the committee would spend some time looking for solutions if there are any.

[wiscvball]

Nov 27, 2016 9:14:36 GMT -5 rainbowbadger said:

In still not convinced the committee doesn't look at last night's collapse and say, "why would we put the 3rd place Big Ten team in the top 4 when we could get a West Coast regional? Who has Wisconsin even beaten, anyway?" And drop us to 5 and send us to Seatte.

Is it true that Kansas can't host a regional this year because of facility size and lack of alternative locations (basketball?). It's possible they make Kansas a 4 and Washington a 5 and the west coast still gets a regional in their time zone if Washington advances.

[rainbowbadger]

Nov 27, 2016 10:37:42 GMT -5 wiscvball said:

Nov 27, 2016 9:14:36 GMT -5 rainbowbadger said:

In still not convinced the committee doesn't look at last night's collapse and say, "why would we put the 3rd place Big Ten team in the top 4 when we could get a West Coast regional? Who has Wisconsin even beaten, anyway?" And drop us to 5 and send us to Seatte.

Is it true that Kansas can't host a regional this year because of facility size and lack of alternative locations (basketball?). It's possible they make Kansas a 4 and Washington a 5 and the west coast still gets a regional in their time zone if Washington advances.

That is correct.

[cyclonepower]

Thanks for all your work over the season on this trojansc! It is fantastic reading every week.

I 100 percent agree with your MWC assessment. It is probably a case that neither Colorado State nor UNLV deserve to be in (as I have said before, if you discredit UNLV for gaming the RPI system, you also need to discredit 2/3 of CSU's top-50 wins), but it is tough to find more deserving cases around those two.

Look forward to seeing what happens tonight!

[aardvark]

Since I'm the one critical about Cincy, let me say why.

They have a 22-9 record overall. They are being declared good on the strength of two top 50 wins. I have always hated categorizing a win as top 25 or top 50. This is a case in point. One of their top 50 wins wasa against Temple, which has an RPI of 48. Most people who talk about top 50 or top 25 wins are guys who are fans of the top 3 conferences. It's a form of double-counting meant to throw bids at teams from power conferences who are mostly doormats to their best rivals.

Let's look at Cincy's losses (RPI in parens):

Michigan State (14)
Western Kentucky (15)
SMU (32)
Marquette (40)
Miami - Ohio (42)
Temple (48)
Southern Illinois (69)
Tulsa (73)
Tennessee (83)

That's 3 losses to teams not making the tourney. They got pancaked by the two good teams they played. I'm just not impressed with them.

On the other hand, I agree they do get in because they got their RPI low enough.

[Wolfgang]

I'm always amazed at the amount of time people put in for this sport. It's really admirable.

[Steve vb]

Nov 27, 2016 11:39:51 GMT -5 Wolfgang said:

I'm always amazed at the amount of time people put in for this sport. It's really admirable.

In the US, volleyball is like a cult following.