2016 Bracketology (FINALIZED) 11/27

[trojansc]

Nov 21, 2016 19:42:44 GMT -5 big10volleyballfan said:

How is it that Texas ends up as a #7 seed when they have an RPI of 2? Is my interpretation of the project brackets incorrect? Perhaps that is a #7 ranking? 

I think Kansas and the PAC Champion will jump them. I also think Minny, Wisconsin, and Nebraska grab the top 3. I think #6 might be more appropriate.

Who knows what the committee will do. This year I think will tell us how much the committee values conference championships. I have mixed results from previous years

[gobruins]

Last week you had UCLA as the #3 seed. This week #5. UCLA beat both Oregon and Oregon State last week. So, what changed?

Also, where do you see UCLA being seeded if they lose to Washington?

[trojansc]

Nov 22, 2016 7:19:45 GMT -5 gobruins said:

Last week you had UCLA as the #3 seed. This week #5. UCLA beat both Oregon and Oregon State last week. So, what changed?

Also, where do you see UCLA being seeded if they lose to Washington?

Minnesota kept winning. Also, Kansas hasn't slipped up yet either. I don't think anyone will pass Minny/Wisconsin/Nebraska, but the #4 is open.

I think with a loss to UW, UCLA will be about #10, but it depends on so many things

[c4ndlelight]

Here's my bracket if the season ended today. I ended up leaving out UNLV. There's just no there there. PAC winner will get a bump before Sunday. Florida got hammered a bit week-to-week, I think not winning the SEC championship outright and going 0-2 against UK/Mizzou put them in a vulnerable position. They don't have that many good wins. Maybe put them over Michigan St. because of H2H, but I think I might be underrating Sparty to begin with.

Kansas is getting that 4 seed. Their profile did a complete 180 in the past month. There are some really unbalanced subregionals. Someone out West is going to get lucky.

1 Nebraska
LIU Brooklyn
Missouri St.
K State

Colorado St.
Ohio St.
UT Rio Grande Valley
8 Washington

9 Missouri
Samford
Creighton
Illinois

WKU
Pitt
Cleveland St.
16 Michigan

5 Texas
TAMU-CC
SMU
Texas A&M

Florida St.
Oregon
Alabama St.
12 Florida

13 San Diego
Princeton
USC
Baylor

Arizona
Wichita St.
Howard
4 Kansas

2 Wisconsin
Northern Illinois
Marquette
Iowa St.

Lipscomb
Purdue
Murray St.
15 Kentucky

10 Stanford
Denver
Penn St.
TCU

Hawaii
American
Fairfield
7 UCLA

6 North Carolina
High Point
Coastal Carolina
James Madison

Dayton
Cincy
Miami (OH)
11 Michigan St.

14 BYU
New Hampshire
Boise St.
Utah

Wazzu
UNI
North Dakota
3 Minnesota

[bigfan]

Nov 21, 2016 18:23:15 GMT -5 redbeard2008 said:

Nov 21, 2016 17:16:58 GMT -5 bigfan said:

Do seeded teams #1-16 always host the first round with the exception of Hawai`i?

There is no exception for Hawaii. If they are a top 16 seed, they get to host.

The last ten years Hawai`i was seeded and DID NOT HOST a first round.

[trojansc]

c4ndlelight the only thing that concerns me is Kansas OOC RPI. That makes me skeptical if they or the Pac-12 Champion will get that #4 (or Texas).

Also, KU has to play at Waco this week which ain't easy

[bigfan]

Nov 22, 2016 11:51:13 GMT -5 c4ndlelight said:

Kansas is getting that 4 seed.

13 San Diego
Princeton
USC
Baylor

Excellent work.

I hope Kansas does not get a 4 seed. They stand to have a deeper run in the play-offs if they are seeded lower. I would love to see them bet back to the FF.

I put Hawai`i in this San Diego group with USC and whoever..................

[c4ndlelight]

Nov 22, 2016 12:16:16 GMT -5 trojansc said:

c4ndlelight the only thing that concerns me is Kansas OOC RPI. That makes me skeptical if they or the Pac-12 Champion will get that #4 (or Texas).

Also, KU has to play at Waco this week which ain't easy

It's a concern, but frankly all of the other options are %*$#ting the bed, and UCLA and UW (the two biggest threats). An outright Big XII championship pushing them ahead of Texas could be decisive. The Big XII's RPI inflation is really filling out their profile.

[FreeBall]

Nov 22, 2016 12:15:59 GMT -5 bigfan said:

Nov 21, 2016 18:23:15 GMT -5 redbeard2008 said:

There is no exception for Hawaii. If they are a top 16 seed, they get to host.

The last ten years Hawai`i was seeded and DID NOT HOST a first round.

Well, they did host the first weekend in both 2011 and 2013. There were years prior to that when they were seeded and did not host, but in those years there was no guarantee that the 16 seeds would get to host. That guarantee was added in a rule change several years ago.

[bluepenquin]

Nov 22, 2016 12:25:48 GMT -5 c4ndlelight said:

Nov 22, 2016 12:16:16 GMT -5 trojansc said:

c4ndlelight the only thing that concerns me is Kansas OOC RPI. That makes me skeptical if they or the Pac-12 Champion will get that #4 (or Texas).

Also, KU has to play at Waco this week which ain't easy

It's a concern, but frankly all of the other options are %*$#ting the bed, and UCLA and UW (the two biggest threats). An outright Big XII championship pushing them ahead of Texas could be decisive. The Big XII's RPI inflation is really filling out their profile.

I think I would go with:  1. Nebraska  2. Wisconsin/Minnesota winner  3. Wisconsin/Minnesota loser 4. UCLA/Washington winner  5. Texas  6. Kansas  7. Stanford  8. BYU  9. North Carolina  10. UCLA/Washington loser  11. Florida  12. Missouri  13. Michigan State  14. San Diego  15. Kentucky  16. Michigan

Seems like 4-12 is a real wild card of possibilities.  I can also see Utah or possibly Creighton getting the 16th seed - but not if the committee isn't going to wait and see if Michigan wins again this year.  I think there are too many advantages to having a Western team in the top 4 - and it being this close.

[ay2013]

Oct 10, 2016 18:31:30 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Bracketology (11/21)
-Big East and MVC Tournaments this Weekend (Nov. 24-26)
-One more update to this will come, after all matches conclude on Saturday night.
-NCAA Selection Show at 9:00pm EST on Sunday, November 27th.

-This is the 5th-year edition of Trojan Bracketology. Quick history:
2012: All at-larges picked correctly.
2013: All at-larges picked correctly.
2014: Missed one at-large. Picked Virginia Tech to make the tournament, but Michigan State made it in. (In all honesty, the most deserving pick was Pacific - but the 2nd place WCC team was left out)
2015 Missed one at-large. Picked Pittsburgh to make the tournament, but Northern Iowa made it. (Convinced this one was a conspiracy)



32 Conference Champions (Auto-Qualifiers)
11/22 RPI number is in parentheses
*Conferences with a regular-season Champion (no tournament)
*Green teams have clinched the AQ.


*ACC – North Carolina (10)
America East – New Hampshire (139)
*AAC – Southern Methodist (33)
Atlantic 10 – Dayton (27)
Atlantic Sun – Lipscomb (54)
*Big 10 – Nebraska (3)
*Big 12 – Kansas (6)
Big East – Creighton (18)
Big Sky – North Dakota (98)
Big South – High Point (111)
*Big West – Hawaii (28)
Colonial – James Madison (51)
Conference USA – Western Kentucky (15)
Horizon – Cleveland State (39)
*Ivy – Princeton (77)
MAAC – Fairfield (122)
MAC – Northern Illinois (52)
MEAC – Howard (160)
MVC – Missouri State (46)
*MWC – Boise State (29)
NEC – LIU Brooklyn (202)
OVC -- Murray State (96)
*Pac-12 – UCLA (12)
Patriot – American (87)
*SEC – Missouri (7)
SoCon – Chattanooga (151)
Southland – Texas A&M Corpus-Christi (62)
Summit – Denver (107)
Sun Belt – Coastal Carolina (34)
SWAC – Alabama State (195)
WAC – UT Rio Grande Valley (123)
*WCC – BYU (8)



(21) Locked At-Large Bids

ACC
26 Florida State


Big Ten
1 Wisconsin
4 Minnesota
14 Michigan State
17 Michigan
22 Purdue
23 Penn State
38 Ohio State

Even if Ohio State loses both this week  no way I can see them being left out.


Big 12
2 Texas
19 Kansas State
25 TCU
30 Iowa State


Pac-12
9 Stanford
11 Washington
20 Utah
21 Oregon
31 Arizona

Even with a disastrous weekend, Arizona is IN.



SEC
5 Florida
16 Kentucky
24 Texas A&M


WCC
13 San Diego


(25) Bubble Teams competing for (13) spots


AAC
40 Cincinnati (20-9, 15-3)
49 Temple (21-7, 14-4)
53 UCF (22-9, 12-6)

Cincinnati is the only team to me that can prevent Southern Methodist from going back-to-back as AAC Champions. Temple has a mathematical path - SMU loses both this weekend, Cinci loses one, and Temple wins both. Temple already beat SMU in Dallas this year, and SMU's other match UConn isn't exactly a pushover. Cincinnati plays two of the weakest AAC teams (East Carolina and Memphis). They should win both.

I have a scenario that puts SMU in MAJOR jeopardy. Temple beats SMU for the second time. Cinci wins out. Cinci gets the AQ. Temple and SMU on the bubble. Temple has 3 top 50 wins, and 2 of those are H2H vs. SMU. SMU has only two top 50 wins, and one of those is a common opponent that Temple beat as well (Cincinnati).

As is the case for all bubble teams, all the teams here need to win out to have the best chance. But for these teams, a loss is more devastating. None of these teams have particularly strong resume's, although I'd lean that Cincinnati, despite 2nd in conference right now, has the best chance at a bid of any team. SMU also with a good chance. Temple is looking to be just out right now. A loss to SMU and I think Temple is definitely OUT.

UCF - worth mentioning with a #53 RPI. But only one top 50 win over Temple. UCF went 1-5 against the Top 3 in the AAC, and their RPI will probably drop after this week, they play 5-24 Houston.

As of now: AAC with two bids. SMU (AQ) and Cincinnati (at-large)


ACC
37 Pittsburgh
47 Georgia Tech
59 Duke
64 Notre Dame
71 North Carolina State

The ACC's outlook has seemed to get progressively worse every weak. Duke was nearly six feet under, but they survived a 3-2 scare against Miami. Duke has to beat North Carolina and North Carolina State this weekend to have any hope. North Carolina is going to get the AQ as long as they beat Wake Forest (nearly a given). Pittsburgh is not going to finish top 25, otherwise Duke would be a serious contender if they could beat North Carolina too. Even if Duke wins out, which I think is unlikely, I'm not sure they get in.

Pittsburgh is most likely in. They are close to a lock, but if all the wheels fell off the bus and they lost both this week, I could see them getting left out. Seriously strange things would have to happen for Pitt to lose against Virginia Tech AND Virginia.

Georgia Tech has one top 50 win, against Coastal Carolina. #unimpressed. Their best ACC win is over Duke. Georgia Tech can play itself into the NCAA's. A win against Florida State could get them a tournament bid. Do I think FSU and CCU are wins that justify a tournament bid? No. But Georgia Tech hasn't lost to a team below 36 in RPI, two top 50 wins (particularly if one is top 25) with a low 40's RPI would be good enough probably to get them in. Right now - Georgia Tech is out. But if they sweep the weekend, they may be first in line to get moved from out to IN.

Notre Dame has struggled with late injury issues, while North Carolina St. has been to inconsistent and turned it on a little too late. NC State has entirely too much ground to make up, though if they swept 4 top 50 wins would look great, but not enough to make up the ground they are lacking in RPI.

Right now - only two at-large bids from the ACC (Florida State & Pittsburgh)


Big East
36 Marquette

Marquette shouldn't be too nervous, but they don't exactly want to end the season on two losses to Xavier. Marquette has some impressive victories, that I can't see one loss hurting them too much to the point of not getting in. Don't be fooled by Xavier, they are a little up and down but are a strong team led by the 2015 Big East Player of the Year Abbey Bessler. Xavier's RPI has them too far out to be considered for an at-large bid, so Xavier has to beat Marquette and either Creighton or Seton Hall in order to get a tournament bid. Villanova earlier in the year looked to have at-large chances, but they didn't even qualify for the Big East Tournament. Creighton has seeding implications in the Big East Tournament, it might mean nothing at all for Marquette, Xavier hopes to be the dark-horse and steal a tournament bid, while Seton Hall is cinderella without a doubt.

As of now - Creighton (AQ) and Marquette to the NCAA's.

Big Ten
50 Illinois
55 Indiana
68 Iowa

Sadly, Iowa is pretty much out. A win against Wisconsin or Michigan State would get them a look, but I still doubt it would be enough to get in. They'd have to beat BOTH, MSU and Wisconsin. That's a lot to ask of even a team of Nebraska's caliber. Sparty took Minnesota to the brink this past weekend in Minneapolis! So sad to say, a nice season for the Hawkeyes and Bond, but it is again "until next year". They do lose their senior setter, so I hope they have someone good coming in.

Illinois clearly looks to have the best chance. They absolutely have to beat Rutgers, and they may or may not have to beat Penn State. If they win both, I'd say Illinois gets in. If they lose both, they are most definitely out. Just beating Rutgers may not be good enough. It depends on how the other bubble teams land. For right now, I'm betting on Illinois getting in.

Indiana's best hope is to WIN out, and hope that Illinois loses at least one match this weekend. That would give them a slight edge over the Illini in RPI. Indiana absolutely has to win against Ohio State, there is no doubt about it. That would give the Hoosier's 4 top 50 wins, one of them being Top-25. I could see Indiana actually getting in. But for now, Illinois is my pick to get in. No Hawkeyes or Hoosiers, as of now..


Big 12
41 Baylor

Baylor is alone in this category because of their RPI compared to Iowa State, TCU. Two losses this week and Baylor certainly can still get in, but at least one win would for sure solidify a tournament bid. Baylor hosts Kansas and Iowa State this weekend. Kansas is still playing for a top-4 seed while the match is pretty much meaningless for Iowa State, who I have locked to the NCAA's. Baylor has 4 top 50 wins as it stands. That should hold up, but you never want to be one of the last 4 teams in.

6-bids from the 9-team Big 12.


Big West
58 Cal Poly

Cal Poly probably doesn't deserve to be on this list. Their RPI can't really improve, they only have one top 50 win, even thought it is a top-25 win over Western Kentucky. A 50-something RPI with nothing really to sell but one victory isn't a good case. But they are probably the best looking contender from the Big West, so I'm giving them a mention here. Good luck next season jake!


Mid-American
42 Miami(OH)

Miami(OH) got swept at Northern Illinois last night. Tough loss, but NIU is almost a top-50 RPI team. Miami(OH) has two top 50 wins, Cincinnati and Missouri. Missouri is a GREAT win - they are probably the SEC Champions. I think this is the first successful bid steal. Miami (OH) should be getting an at-large as of now. They do have a sketchy loss to Kent State, but I think it will be overlooked. Many bubble teams have one sketchy loss, but not a ton. I'll have to rethink this one as well by Saturday, but I think Miami(OH) is in.


Missouri Valley
35 Wichita State
44 Northern Iowa
63 Southern Illinois

MVC Tournament takes place this weekend. Every team needs to win it to guarantee a bid. For Loyola-Chicago and Illinois State, it is absolutely their only hope. For Southern Illinois, they most likely will not get an at-large bid. Even if SIU wins two and loses in the Final, an at-large is probably not gonna happen.

Northern Iowa, Wichita State, and Missouri State all may or may not need to win the conference to get the bid. Ironically, Missouri State, the #1 seed, has the lower RPI, with Wichita St. and UNI slightly higher. I think if any of these three advance to the Finals, they will get an at-large bid. The losers in the semifinals are assuredly in the most jeopardy. I think three teams get in. Southern Illinois winning the conference would send a bunch of havoc through the MVC, and anywhere from 2-4 bids would be the result.

I think the MVC is in a good position to get three bids. I don't think SIU is strong enough to win the tournament, and I think Missouri State continues their hot streak and wins this.




Mountain West
32 UNLV
48 Colorado State

UNLV is giving me a headache. I don't think they deserve a bid, so for right now, they are OUT of the tournament. I'll have to rethink this by Saturday, but they simply do not deserve a bid, and I mean that especially if the bid means they would get in and Colorado State would not. With CSU's 2 wins over UNLV, and UNLV having a win over the conference champion, it makes me consider that the committee would just give both UNLV and CSU a bid. The question is will the committee ignore UNLV's lack of quality wins and reward them for their RPI ranking? Miami-FL gave us this example a couple years ago, but they had two top 50 wins (both were barely top 50, think high 40s). They had an RPI around like 29, if I remember correctly. I hate to say it, but I hope UNLV goes down to New Mexico this week. That to me would seal the deal, and leave them out of the NCAA's. They didn't do enough this season to deserve a bid. Splitting with Boise State is not good enough.

CSU's only other top 50 win is Baylor, despite two over UNLV. Colorado State is in do or die mode tomorrow against Wyoming. If they lose that match, I think CSU gets left out of the NCAA's. Wyoming already beat CSU once this season. I wonder if the committee would make the bold decision to only give one bid, the AQ, to the Mountain West. If CSU loses to Wyoming and UNLV loses to New Mexico, that could certainly be justified.

Right now, only CSU is an at-large.


Pac-12
43 USC
45 Washington State
81 Colorado

I think USC and Washington State taking care of weaker foes last week (Oregon St. and Colorado) bought them tickets to the NCAA tournament. They also play each other this week, so one is 100% sure getting in. The loser has a 95% chance, in my opinion. Colorado, on the other hand, is just way too far out to make the tournament. They have some good wins, but have just lost too many games. They have a pretty atrocious conference record. Injures, also playing a part in that.

USC and Washington State are in. I can't see them being left out. They have wins that make the other bubble teams look like jokes. 8 teams from the PAC-12, Colorado is out and I see no path to them getting in.


SEC
56 Alabama

Alabama's struggle through SEC play is a reason why they aren't going to get into the NCAA's. Alabama has an outside-shot, and has to hope the committee for whatever reason wants to put another SEC team in. It starts with beating Ole Miss, who they lost to already this season, and then winning at LSU. Alabama has two top 50 wins, Texas A&M and Temple. And TAMU is top 25 as of now. It's possible, but I don't think Alabama is going to get a bid, no matter how the numbers fall. Bama's lost to Tennessee, Auburn, Ole Miss, and Mississippi State. That's not a tournament team. But damn, Krystal Rivers is a hell of a player!


WCC
65 Loyola Marymount

LMU is a longshot, but hole-in-one's are certainly possible. LMU has to beat BYU next week. That likely will get them two top-25 wins (which help for bonus RPI points). Wins over Dayton and BYU are probably not enough to get LMU in, but there couldn't be that many teams in front of them if this scenario happens. LMU shot itself in the foot by losing matches to Gonzaga and Pacific while not being able to close out many 5-set matches this season. They already went 5 with USD and BYU earlier this season, but lost. Anyway, even if LMU beats BYU, I think they are just out.

Only BYU and USD to NCAA's.

At-Large Bid Summary
2 at-large bids from ACC (Florida St., Pittsburgh)
1 at-large bids from AAC (Cincinnati)
1 at-large bids from Big East (Marquette)
8 at-large bids from Big Ten (Wisconsin, Minnesota, Penn State, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, Ohio State, Illinois)
5 at-large bids from Big 12 (Texas, Kansas State, Baylor, TCU, Iowa State)
1 at-large bids from MAC (Miami-OH)
2 at-large bids from MVC (Wichita State, Northern Iowa)
1 at-large bids from MWC (Colorado State)
7 at-large bids from Pac 12 (Stanford, Washington, Washington St, Oregon, Utah, USC, Arizona)
3 at-large bids from SEC (Florida, Kentucky, Texas A&M)
1 at-large bids from WCC (San Diego)

Last 4 in: Miami(OH), Colorado State, Illinois, Northern Iowa

First 4 out: UNLV, Indiana, Alabama, Temple

Next 4 out: Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, Colorado, Duke




Predicted NCAA Tournament Bracket as of 11/22

(1) Nebraska VS. High Point
Oregon vs. Kansas State

(16) Michigan vs. Cleveland State
Dayton vs. Cincinnati

(8) North Carolina vs. Howard
American vs. Coastal Carolina

(9) Florida vs. Alabama State
Florida State vs. Illinois

-----------------------------------

(4) Kansas vs. James Madison
Missouri State vs. Creighton

(13) San Diego vs. UT Rio Grande Valley
TCU vs. USC

(5) UCLA vs. New Hampshire
Ohio State vs. Hawaii

(12) BYU vs. Denver
Boise State vs. Utah

-----------------------------------------

(2) Minnesota vs. North Dakota
Washington State vs. Northern Iowa

(15) Michigan State vs. Princeton
Miami(OH) vs. Pittsburgh

(7) Texas vs. Texas A&M Corpus Christi
Southern Methodist vs. Texas A&M

(10) Stanford vs. Fairfield
Purdue vs. Colorado State

--------------------------------------------

(3) Wisconsin vs. Northern Illinois
Iowa State vs. Marquette

(14) Kentucky vs. Chattanooga
Lipscomb vs. Western Kentucky

(6) Missouri vs. Murray State
Arizona vs. Wichita State

(11) Washington vs. LIU Brooklyn
Baylor vs. Penn State

Good stuff.

I know it's been covered before, but regionalization is so stupid. There is just no way to reconcile the sub regional of the #16, #15, and #14 seeds, to that of the #1 seed.

[c4ndlelight]

trojansc, Illinois and Purdue can drive to Mizzou and Kentucky, so they can't fly to Florida or Stanford when you have Arizna flying in to Mizzou. You'll also have to shift eastward to get rid of the fly-in to Michigan St. (A B1G at-large will also likely go to Kentucky to minimize flights).
James Madison has an at-large caliber RPI if not profile. They're going to go to UNC in the Committee's best attempt to balance that subregional and send one of the truer AQs out as a 4th seed.

Also, they're most likely going to send the PAC fly-ins in order - lowest RPI to highest seed. So Wazzu to highest (MN or WI), then Arizona (KS or NE), then Oregon (FL, likely)

[volleyfan24]

Nov 22, 2016 12:16:16 GMT -5 trojansc said:

c4ndlelight the only thing that concerns me is Kansas OOC RPI. That makes me skeptical if they or the Pac-12 Champion will get that #4 (or Texas).

Also, KU has to play at Waco this week which ain't easy

Isn't Kansas out of hosting a regional qualifiers because their facility is too small? I don't think KU gets the 4 seed.

[c4ndlelight]

Nov 22, 2016 14:03:24 GMT -5 volleyfan24 said:

Nov 22, 2016 12:16:16 GMT -5 trojansc said:

c4ndlelight the only thing that concerns me is Kansas OOC RPI. That makes me skeptical if they or the Pac-12 Champion will get that #4 (or Texas).

Also, KU has to play at Waco this week which ain't easy

Isn't Kansas out of hosting a regional qualifiers because their facility is too small? I don't think KU gets the 4 seed.

Wouldn't that make it easier on the Committee if they want to balance geographically? They can slot PAC winner as a 5 seed and host out West. As I said in my projection, UCLA/UW winner will get a big boost provided they don't lose their rivalry match.

[rainbowbadger]

Nov 22, 2016 14:09:39 GMT -5 c4ndlelight said:

Nov 22, 2016 14:03:24 GMT -5 volleyfan24 said:

Isn't Kansas out of hosting a regional qualifiers because their facility is too small? I don't think KU gets the 4 seed.

Wouldn't that make it easier on the Committee if they want to balance geographically? They can slot PAC winner as a 5 seed and host out West. As I said in my projection, UCLA/UW winner will get a big boost provided they don't lose their rivalry match.

But I thought UCLA couldn't host either. Or am I remembering incorrectly.