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Post by c4ndlelight on Nov 5, 2017 22:00:10 GMT -5
I don't think you can count out North Texas just yet for at-large terms. Oregon State could end up Top 25, and if North Texas beats Western Kentucky (and the Mean Green are at home) then they are in the conversation. If they lose that match, then yes they must win autobid. Thanks for correction - I just plain missed their Oregon win. They could shake up the bubble a bit. Their SOS is in the 230s, and their non-conference RPI is about as bad. Do we think they get in with wins over Oregon St. and WKU and a loss in C-USA with a 48/49 RPI? With Hawaii, UNC, SEC #6 hanging around, I think not. Would be curious to see the last at-large with a sub-200 SOS.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Nov 5, 2017 22:16:00 GMT -5
Here is what Futures shows as the bubble - with Washington State being the last one in. I would think Hawaii is in under this scenario? The Ohio State win this week hurt.
33 Ohio State 34 Auburn 36 Missouri 37 NC State 38 Miami-FL 39 Notre Dame 40 LSU UNI/Missouri State 42 Hawaii 43 Arkansas 45 Washington State 46 Iowa 48 Maryland 50 North Texas 51 Dayton 52 Butler 53 Florida State 58 North Carolina
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Post by brybast on Nov 5, 2017 22:26:59 GMT -5
Here is what Futures shows as the bubble - with Washington State being the last one in. I would think Hawaii is in under this scenario? The Ohio State win this week hurt. 33 Ohio State 34 Auburn 36 Missouri 37 NC State 38 Miami-FL 39 Notre Dame 40 LSU UNI/Missouri State 42 Hawaii 43 Arkansas 45 Washington State46 Iowa 48 Maryland 50 North Texas 51 Dayton 52 Butler 53 Florida State 58 North Carolina Does the committee historically go strictly by RPI in defining the bubble?
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Post by trollhunter on Nov 5, 2017 22:29:47 GMT -5
Thanks for correction - I just plain missed their Oregon win. They could shake up the bubble a bit. Their SOS is in the 230s, and their non-conference RPI is about as bad. Do we think they get in with wins over Oregon St. and WKU and a loss in C-USA with a 48/49 RPI? With Hawaii, UNC, SEC #6 hanging around, I think not. Would be curious to see the last at-large with a sub-200 SOS. You are correct, I hadn't fully looked at NT resume because I didn't think they were in the running. Compared to Hawaii: W/L = North Texas SOS = Hawaii RPI = Hawaii H2H = none Common Opps = none Sign W/L = Hawaii or maybe a wash *Hawaii = Baylor *North Texas = OSU, maybe WKU, but 2 losses to 100+ teams Hawaii is ahead of NT on bubble unless Hawaii loses to Irvine and NT beats WKU.
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Post by c4ndlelight on Nov 5, 2017 22:34:21 GMT -5
IMO, the most interesting thing to watch in the next two weeks will be how the SEC & ACC shake out. So much variability.
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Post by trollhunter on Nov 5, 2017 22:50:28 GMT -5
Here is what Futures shows as the bubble - with Washington State being the last one in. I would think Hawaii is in under this scenario? The Ohio State win this week hurt. 33 Ohio State 34 Auburn 36 Missouri 37 NC State 38 Miami-FL 39 Notre Dame 40 LSU UNI/Missouri State 42 Hawaii 43 Arkansas 45 Washington State46 Iowa 48 Maryland 50 North Texas 51 Dayton 52 Butler 53 Florida State 58 North Carolina Hawaii could certainly make it, but many of those teams behind them in RPI could easily pass them on other criteria. Most years committee will bump up some teams with more T25 wins, T50 wins & SOS over teams with slightly better RPI. Depending on how they finish, I believe 3-4 of these teams will likely pass Hawaii: Iowa - win over Michigan, plus 6 matches left versus T50 opponents. Better SOS. Maryland - wins over USC and Purdue + 5 more chances T50 wins. Beter SOS. May be ahead already. Washington State - wins over UCLA, Colorado, Missouri State. Better SOS. Loses Common Opps. May be ahead already. Florida State - wins over Baylor, Auburn, Miami. Better SOS. May be ahead already. Butler - beat Marquette, CofC plus a couple chances to improve, poor SOS, wins ComOpps, better record. I also think there is a decent chance that a couple of these teams finish strong and pass Hawaii: Arkansas - No good wins, but 4 tries left. Better SOS. Alabama - win over Arkansas, but 3 chances to improve. Better SOS. Tennessee - wins over LSU and Missouri. Better SOS. Needs 4-1 finish to move up in RPI and quality wins. Georgia - beat Arkansas, Missouri, Alabama + 3 chances versus LSU & Kentucky. Same SOS. 3-2 finish may do it. North Carolina - wins over Louisville, LSU, NCSU. Better SOS. Worse record. 5-1 or 4-2 finish may do it. Your +1/-1 chart should show that some of these teams could also end up with better RPI than Hawaii also.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Nov 5, 2017 23:05:21 GMT -5
Here is what Futures shows as the bubble - with Washington State being the last one in. I would think Hawaii is in under this scenario? The Ohio State win this week hurt. 33 Ohio State 34 Auburn 36 Missouri 37 NC State 38 Miami-FL 39 Notre Dame 40 LSU UNI/Missouri State 42 Hawaii 43 Arkansas 45 Washington State46 Iowa 48 Maryland 50 North Texas 51 Dayton 52 Butler 53 Florida State 58 North Carolina Does the committee historically go strictly by RPI in defining the bubble? Nope, but 3 teams below them would have to pass them - and that is assuming Ohio State is over .500.
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Post by c4ndlelight on Nov 6, 2017 15:56:14 GMT -5
Here is my bracket if the season ended today, today's RPIs in parens. I note that Minnesota is a couple of slots lower than the Committee's reveal, but my thinking is that: (1) Florida's win over Kentucky changes things substantially for everyone near the top and (2) that Minnesota has only beaten 2 seed-caliber teams will come back to bite them even if they have a very high RPI. I could be off on this, but we'll see. The bottom half of the seeds was much easier to follow RPI with, they have similar numbers except for Wisconsin, which lacks high-end wins and is why they got dinged a few spots. I had Maryland and UNI as the last two teams in. Iowa and Arkansas as the first two out - despite the UMKC loss, I'm thinking the big wins carry UNI over the hurdle. Iowa and Arkansas have plenty of chances to get back in it but Arkansas hasn't beaten a tourney team and has lost to two non-tourney teams, while Iowa has a win over Michigan, to go with a lot of losses to good teams and an unimpressive OOC - the Committee doesn't give you a ton of credit for just keeping a clean sheet. I struggled the most with the KY/Mich St. subregionals.
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Post by c4ndlelight on Nov 6, 2017 16:25:59 GMT -5
Bubble matches I'm circling:
Iowa v. Maryland/Ohio St. - Iowa needs the H2H against the Terps as they don't have the wins UMD does. And they have two more chances at Top 50 wins v OSU, awhile Bucks probably need to split to stay tourney-eligible.
Arkansas v Auburn - Last day of the season. Depending on how the next 3 weeks go, could be a play-in match.
FSU and Notre Dame v Non-Tourney Teams - FSU doesn't play anybody better than GT down the stretch. The SOS is going to pull their RPI from a safe position now down into the danger zone, a slip up could knock them out. Notre Dame can probably stomach a loss against a NC St., but matches against UNC and Cuse could have a very safe-looking team in trouble. Irish have not looked good lately. Carolina needs to string a couple of wins together before I throw them back on the board.
Mo St. in the MVC tourney - I don't think they can absorb a loss here, even if they beat UNI a 2nd time in the regular season - H2H won't be as important if they Panthers take the AQ and aren't in At-Large consideration. The Valley is terrible for RPI this year, and the RPI cutline is looking higher than normal.
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Post by Millennium on Nov 6, 2017 16:33:50 GMT -5
Here is my bracket if the season ended today, today's RPIs in parens. I note that Minnesota is a couple of slots lower than the Committee's reveal, but my thinking is that: (1) Florida's win over Kentucky changes things substantially for everyone near the top and (2) that Minnesota has only beaten 2 seed-caliber teams will come back to bite them even if they have a very high RPI. I could be off on this, but we'll see. The bottom half of the seeds was much easier to follow RPI with, they have similar numbers except for Wisconsin, which lacks high-end wins and is why they got dinged a few spots. I had Maryland and UNI as the last two teams in. Iowa and Arkansas as the first two out - despite the UMKC loss, I'm thinking the big wins carry UNI over the hurdle. Iowa and Arkansas have plenty of chances to get back in it but Arkansas hasn't beaten a tourney team and has lost to two non-tourney teams, while Iowa has a win over Michigan, to go with a lot of losses to good teams and an unimpressive OOC - the Committee doesn't give you a ton of credit for just keeping a clean sheet. I struggled the most with the KY/Mich St. subregionals. I really like this bracket. I would love to see it play out like this.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Nov 6, 2017 16:45:43 GMT -5
Bubble matches I'm circling: Iowa v. Maryland/Ohio St. - Iowa needs the H2H against the Terps as they don't have the wins UMD does. And they have two more chances at Top 50 wins v OSU, awhile Bucks probably need to split to stay tourney-eligible. Arkansas v Auburn - Last day of the season. Depending on how the next 3 weeks go, could be a play-in match. FSU and Notre Dame v Non-Tourney Teams - FSU doesn't play anybody better than GT down the stretch. The SOS is going to pull their RPI from a safe position now down into the danger zone, a slip up could knock them out. Notre Dame can probably stomach a loss against a NC St., but matches against UNC and Cuse could have a very safe-looking team in trouble. Irish have not looked good lately. Carolina needs to string a couple of wins together before I throw them back on the board. Mo St. in the MVC tourney - I don't think they can absorb a loss here, even if they beat UNI a 2nd time in the regular season - H2H won't be as important if they Panthers take the AQ and aren't in At-Large consideration. The Valley is terrible for RPI this year, and the RPI cutline is looking higher than normal. I am sticking with Florida State not making it.
UNI/Mo State will be interesting. When I looked at the % chance of winning the MVC - UNI had a better chance then Missouri State. Part of this is due to host Illinois State likely to be the 4th seed - Missouri State doesn't get any favors there. They also have the big one at home this week against UNI.
As of now - that Iowa State/Creighton/USC race for possibly the last two spots. Creighton lost H2H against both - couldn't have worked out worse in that regard.
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Post by c4ndlelight on Nov 6, 2017 16:49:32 GMT -5
Bubble matches I'm circling: Iowa v. Maryland/Ohio St. - Iowa needs the H2H against the Terps as they don't have the wins UMD does. And they have two more chances at Top 50 wins v OSU, awhile Bucks probably need to split to stay tourney-eligible. Arkansas v Auburn - Last day of the season. Depending on how the next 3 weeks go, could be a play-in match. FSU and Notre Dame v Non-Tourney Teams - FSU doesn't play anybody better than GT down the stretch. The SOS is going to pull their RPI from a safe position now down into the danger zone, a slip up could knock them out. Notre Dame can probably stomach a loss against a NC St., but matches against UNC and Cuse could have a very safe-looking team in trouble. Irish have not looked good lately. Carolina needs to string a couple of wins together before I throw them back on the board. Mo St. in the MVC tourney - I don't think they can absorb a loss here, even if they beat UNI a 2nd time in the regular season - H2H won't be as important if they Panthers take the AQ and aren't in At-Large consideration. The Valley is terrible for RPI this year, and the RPI cutline is looking higher than normal. I am sticking with Florida State not making it.
UNI/Mo State will be interesting. When I looked at the % chance of winning the MVC - UNI had a better chance then Missouri State. Part of this is due to host Illinois State likely to be the 4th seed - Missouri State doesn't get any favors there. They also have the big one at home this week against UNI.
As of now - that Iowa State/Creighton/USC race for possibly the last two spots. Creighton lost H2H against both - couldn't have worked out worse in that regard.
I think USC will be clearly a seeds or clearly not a seed by the time it's all said and done. They're right on the edge now, but the schedule is going to force them one way or another. To stay 16-17 in the RPI, they'll just need to have accumulated too many T25 wins. FSU will have factors in their favor to jump a couple of teams in the RPI - SOS (both raw and non-con), road win over Baylor, plus a potentially meaningful H2H with Auburn. Worst loss is Notre Dame. I'd need to see exactly how far off the cutline they fall if they win out.
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Post by trianglevolleyball on Nov 6, 2017 16:53:24 GMT -5
So Washington State is likely to make the tourney if they can just pick up home wins against Arizona State and Cal?
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Post by c4ndlelight on Nov 6, 2017 16:58:01 GMT -5
So Washington State is likely to make the tourney if they can just pick up home wins against Arizona State and Cal? That's my take. 2-4 will have them right at or on the right side of the RPI cutline, and they have wins other aspirants do not.
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Nov 6, 2017 18:38:45 GMT -5
Update coming in a few hours. Will predict 16 seeded teams and post bubble profiles.
I like c4's bracket for right now
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