FINALIZED 2017 Bracketology (11/26)

[bluepenquin]

Oct 23, 2017 10:04:40 GMT -5 FreeBall said:

Oct 23, 2017 10:02:17 GMT -5 southie said:

Nebraska's losses to Oregon, Florida, and Northern Iowa in non-conference are what place them below PSU and Minnesota. Committee proved last season that the body of work and overall RPI trumps conference championships.

You think overall RPI should also trump H2H results?

There are potentially going to be some tough choices - especially if all these teams continue to win.  And as you said, PSU has some tough games still ahead of them - and any of these teams could still lose a couple, so we will have to wait and see how this plays out.

I can see where RPI and OOC performance *could* trump H2H.  It will also be interesting how the committee will treat the loss to UNI?  That will be the worst loss among those teams in consideration.

[ay2013]

Oct 23, 2017 10:04:40 GMT -5 FreeBall said:

Oct 23, 2017 10:02:17 GMT -5 southie said:

Nebraska's losses to Oregon, Florida, and Northern Iowa in non-conference are what place them below PSU and Minnesota. Committee proved last season that the body of work and overall RPI trumps conference championships.

You think overall RPI should also trump H2H results?

Frankly I think overall RPI gets one in the discussion- top 4 seed talks and seeding in general, entrance as an at large, but I think the actual RPI as an evaluative tool between teams with similar RPI's, isn't a huge factor. Head to head and common opponents, in particular of teams also in consideration would weigh more heavily. And other factors of the nitty gritty.

[c4ndlelight]

Oct 23, 2017 11:29:29 GMT -5 ay2013 said:

Oct 23, 2017 10:04:40 GMT -5 FreeBall said:

You think overall RPI should also trump H2H results?

Frankly I think overall RPI gets one in the discussion- top 4 seed talks and seeding in general, entrance as an at large, but I think the actual RPI as an evaluative tool between teams with similar RPI's, isn't a huge factor. Head to head and common opponents, in particular of teams also in consideration would weigh more heavily. And other factors of the nitty gritty.

Can you point to any Committee decisions that appear to have been influenced by Common Opponents? I can't...
H2H has been a big factor though.

[trojansc]

Oct 23, 2017 11:41:02 GMT -5 c4ndlelight said:

Oct 23, 2017 11:29:29 GMT -5 ay2013 said:

Frankly I think overall RPI gets one in the discussion- top 4 seed talks and seeding in general, entrance as an at large, but I think the actual RPI as an evaluative tool between teams with similar RPI's, isn't a huge factor. Head to head and common opponents, in particular of teams also in consideration would weigh more heavily. And other factors of the nitty gritty.

Can you point to any Committee decisions that appear to have been influenced by Common Opponents? I can't...
H2H has been a big factor though.

Agree with you on H2H.

Also, To everyone, this will be updated tonight 😊

[azsker]

Keep in mind if Nebraska is on the border of being a top 4 seed, they will probably get the nod considering their venue and the fact they will sell it out. NCAA is going to consider the financial benefit of hosting at Devaney compared to let's say, Gregory gym, which is less than half of the capacity of Devaney. Being the only team to knock off Penn State will also be a boost, even with their hiccup to Northern Iowa, which is still a head scratcher to me. I wouldn't see how they would leave Stanford out, even if they would drop a game in the PAC12 (even though I don't think they will). Minnesota could still drop a couple games going to Purdue and Illinois, as well as their game with PSU. If UK knocks off Florida again, I wouldn't think that would get them there? They've played maybe 4 top 15 teams and were swept in 2 of those meetings. Idk...it'll be interesting. Makes it exciting, that's for sure. Committee will have their hands full..I'd only feel confident if I were PSU right now.

[trollhunter]

Oct 21, 2017 15:13:54 GMT -5 gopherguy said:

Maryland's sweep of USC and qualifying RPI not enough to get them in?

Not if that is their only T50 win. There will be other teams with a nearby RPI and more T50 wins.

Not if their RPI is on the bubble as it is now. Not sure exactly what you mean by "qualifying RPI".

The NCAA committee considers only W-L, not set differential or point differential.

[Babar]

Oct 23, 2017 22:03:54 GMT -5 azsker said:

Keep in mind if Nebraska is on the border of being a top 4 seed, they will probably get the nod considering their venue and the fact they will sell it out. NCAA is going to consider the financial benefit of hosting at Devaney compared to let's say, Gregory gym, which is less than half of the capacity of Devaney. Being the only team to knock off Penn State will also be a boost, even with their hiccup to Northern Iowa, which is still a head scratcher to me. I wouldn't see how they would leave Stanford out, even if they would drop a game in the PAC12 (even though I don't think they will). Minnesota could still drop a couple games going to Purdue and Illinois, as well as their game with PSU. If UK knocks off Florida again, I wouldn't think that would get them there? They've played maybe 4 top 15 teams and were swept in 2 of those meetings. Idk...it'll be interesting. Makes it exciting, that's for sure. Committee will have their hands full..I'd only feel confident if I were PSU right now.

This is where the double round-robin would help. Penn State playing a second match against Nebraska would let us know if Penn State was an outlier when they lost 0-3 at home or whether or not
or if Nebraska is just better. The biggest mistake the committee makes (via rpi) is that it does not value whether or not a match was won on the road. There are 3 matches that to me stick out as to the strength of teams that are at a similar level:

Creighton beat Kansas 3-0 in Lawrence
Nebraska beat Penn State 3-0 in State College
Kentucky beat Florida 3-1 in Gainesville


I take particular interest in those matches because Kansas, Penn State, and Florida have very high winning percentages on their home court. Creighton's win against Kansas on the road to me is more impressive than Creighton's win (3-0) at home against Kentucky. Florida does not have a win against a top twenty team on the road because of their pre-conference and conference schedule.There will be pressure on both Kentucky and Florida for obvious reasons when they play in Lexington. If Florida wins, they will have accoplished what they haven't had the opportunity to do to this point. If Kentucky wins, then Kentucky warrants the higher seed.

If I were to seed the tournament right now my top six seeds would be Penn State, Stanford, Nebraska, Kentucky / Florida winner, Texas, Minnesota . . . Creighton, Kansas, and Washington could win a match against any of the teams in the top 7. The sleeper to me is BYU. They have finished higher than anyone predicted the past three years and a great coaching job by Heather Olmsted has almost gone unnoticed.

[trojansc]

updated.

[eastcoastopp]

Oct 24, 2017 1:41:25 GMT -5 trojansc said:

updated.

Thanks. Great update 👍🏻

[Cruz'n]

I sure appreciate all the work you put into this trojansc

[dman]

How are subregional hosts determined?

[Millennium]

Oct 24, 2017 1:41:25 GMT -5 trojansc said:

updated.

You da man!!!

[southie]

I'm curious about A&M. Is the rule as simple as a team has to have a minimum .500 overall record in order to be eligible for the NCAA tourney?

[dfw]

Check your BE update - Marquette lost to Butler and Villanova, not Xavier

[skiumahgopher]

Oct 24, 2017 7:35:06 GMT -5 southie said:

I'm curious about A&M. Is the rule as simple as a team has to have a minimum .500 overall record in order to be eligible for the NCAA tourney?

Yes, unless it is an automatic bid (since the SEC has no tourney, no bid for A & M with a losing record).