FINALIZED 2017 Bracketology (11/26)

[ay2013]

Oct 21, 2017 13:08:41 GMT -5 gopherguy said:

Oct 21, 2017 10:51:33 GMT -5 les said:

This is a switch - If the brackets were chose tomorrow the pac, most likely, would have more teams in the tourney than the larger big 10 conference. Oregon State is sitting 1 spot ahead of Ohio State in rpi and has had some great wins lately.

Hmmm... if the brackets were set up tomorrow, wouldn't they use the 10/16 RPI?

I count 10 B1G teams solidly in: Penn State (1), Minnesota (2), Nebraska (6), Wisconsin (8), Purdue (14), Michigan State (18), Illinois (19), Ohio State (29), Michigan (33), Maryland (38) and Iowa at 45 in bubble territory. Penn State and Minnesota would both likely be at home the first four rounds, and Nebraska, Wisconsin and Purdue would host the first two.

I get 9 PAC-12 teams -- Cal, Arizona and Arizona State will not make the field. The PAC-12 would not have any regional hosts.

I wouldn't make travel plans yet, though... I'm confident they're not going to set the field tomorrow.

If the brackets were set up tomorrow they'd use the most current RPI given to them, which is usually the case. They also get team sheets. Frankly, if the bracket were set up tomorrow there would be 10 big 10 teams in with Iowa probably out (they have no top 50 wins right now), 9 Pac-12 teams in, and, as of right now, I'd like Stanford's chances of hosting. Nitty Gritty right now says Stanford has 6 wins against top 25 teams. The RPI has treated the Pac-12 well with a smattering of teams in the top 25. IMO being undefeated out west this year is good enough for a regional seed right now.

[les]

Oct 21, 2017 15:13:54 GMT -5 gopherguy said:

Maryland's sweep of USC and qualifying RPI not enough to get them in?

This year maybe, but the prospect of a 17-15 record with 1 decent win wreaks and would be pretty suspect if you ask me.
In 2014 USC made it in at 14-14 but during the course of the season they had wins against tourney teams Utah, Kentucky, Colorado, Creighton and Oregon State in addition to most their losses coming from tourney teams.  Maryland has got the USC win, but anybody else? Nope

[trojansc]

Butler trying to get in on the bubble discussion - they beat Marquette in 5 tonight

[volleyca]

My question is: who do y’all think will have a top 4 seed/host come December?

[bluepenquin]

Oct 22, 2017 13:35:54 GMT -5 volleyca said:

My question is: who do y’all think will have a top 4 seed/host come December?

I'll bite: 

1. Penn State
2. Stanford
3. Florida/Kentucky winner of 11/1 match
4. Minnesota

[ugopher]

Oct 22, 2017 22:00:00 GMT -5 UofIlliniVBFan said:

Oct 22, 2017 21:43:05 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

I'll bite: 

1. Penn State
2. Stanford
3. Florida/Kentucky winner of 11/1 match
4. Minnesota

What if Texas doesn't lose another match?

Stanford's RPI as of today is 7. If that holds, would the committee give them a top four seed?

Texas is a 6. Same question.

The top four in RPI as of today are:
Penn State
Minnesota
Florida
Kentucky

5-8
Nebraska
Texas
Stanford
Wisconsin


Would be interesting to see if the committee would actually give the top four seeds to only 2 conferences. I'm thinking not.

Minnesota and Penn State don't play each other until the last match of the season. And, the match time could be interesting, as well. MN and WI play at MN in football on 11/25 so it is possible that the match could be late - 7:30 or 8:00. Which would make it tough on the committee to make any changes based upon that outcome.

Or, what if BTN decides to have the MN/WI at night? What happens then? Although, I can't recall if the Big Ten has night football games that late in the season.

[bluepenquin]

Oct 22, 2017 22:00:00 GMT -5 UofIlliniVBFan said:

Oct 22, 2017 21:43:05 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

I'll bite: 

1. Penn State
2. Stanford
3. Florida/Kentucky winner of 11/1 match
4. Minnesota

What if Texas doesn't lose another match?

Obviously anyone of the 7 teams (including Texas and Nebraska) can be a regional host.  7 good candidates and can only choose 4...

But yeah - if Texas wins all of their matches they have a good chance of being a regional host.  W/o that - they have the issue of losing to both Minnesota and Florida and then likely to be behind both in RPI.  Penn State seems like an overwhelming favorite to host right now.  And I cannot imagine Stanford not hosting if they win 19 or 20 in the PAC this year - which I think they will.

[southie]

Penn State is definitely deserving of a regional host site at the moment.

But, they have four very tough matches remaining against Wisconsin at home, and then on the road at Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. I think they are the team most susceptible to falling out of the Top 4 RPI if they lose all 4 matches. They might stay in the Top 4 if the win at least 3 of them, but not positive.

[FreeBall]

Oct 22, 2017 21:43:05 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Oct 22, 2017 13:35:54 GMT -5 volleyca said:

My question is: who do y’all think will have a top 4 seed/host come December?

I'll bite: 

1. Penn State
2. Stanford
3. Florida/Kentucky winner of 11/1 match
4. Minnesota

What if Nebraska doesn't lose another match?

They would be no worse than co-champions of the Big Ten and would have H2H wins over both Penn State and Minnesota. Not sure how you would justify seeding both of those teams ahead of the Huskers at that point.

[Hawk Attack]

Oct 21, 2017 15:41:03 GMT -5 ay2013 said:

Oct 21, 2017 13:08:41 GMT -5 gopherguy said:

Hmmm... if the brackets were set up tomorrow, wouldn't they use the 10/16 RPI?

I count 10 B1G teams solidly in: Penn State (1), Minnesota (2), Nebraska (6), Wisconsin (8), Purdue (14), Michigan State (18), Illinois (19), Ohio State (29), Michigan (33), Maryland (38) and Iowa at 45 in bubble territory. Penn State and Minnesota would both likely be at home the first four rounds, and Nebraska, Wisconsin and Purdue would host the first two.

I get 9 PAC-12 teams -- Cal, Arizona and Arizona State will not make the field. The PAC-12 would not have any regional hosts.

I wouldn't make travel plans yet, though... I'm confident they're not going to set the field tomorrow.

Frankly, if the bracket were set up tomorrow there would be 10 big 10 teams in with Iowa probably out (they have no top 50 wins right now).

1 Top 50 win

[southie]

Oct 23, 2017 9:34:08 GMT -5 FreeBall said:

Oct 22, 2017 21:43:05 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

I'll bite: 

1. Penn State
2. Stanford
3. Florida/Kentucky winner of 11/1 match
4. Minnesota

What if Nebraska doesn't lose another match?

They would be no worse than co-champions of the Big Ten and would have H2H wins over both Penn State and Minnesota. Not sure how you would justify seeding both of those teams ahead of the Huskers at that point.

Nebraska's losses to Oregon, Florida, and Northern Iowa in non-conference are what place them below PSU and Minnesota. Committee proved last season that the body of work and overall RPI trumps conference championships.

[FreeBall]

Oct 23, 2017 10:02:17 GMT -5 southie said:

Oct 23, 2017 9:34:08 GMT -5 FreeBall said:

What if Nebraska doesn't lose another match?

They would be no worse than co-champions of the Big Ten and would have H2H wins over both Penn State and Minnesota. Not sure how you would justify seeding both of those teams ahead of the Huskers at that point.

Nebraska's losses to Oregon, Florida, and Northern Iowa in non-conference are what place them below PSU and Minnesota. Committee proved last season that the body of work and overall RPI trumps conference championships.

You think overall RPI should also trump H2H results?

[southie]

Oct 23, 2017 10:04:40 GMT -5 FreeBall said:

Oct 23, 2017 10:02:17 GMT -5 southie said:

Nebraska's losses to Oregon, Florida, and Northern Iowa in non-conference are what place them below PSU and Minnesota. Committee proved last season that the body of work and overall RPI trumps conference championships.

You think overall RPI should also trump H2H results?

No, if everything else was equal, H2H is a great tie-breaker. But, not equal as Nebraska has 3 non-conference losses and PSU and Minnesota have none.

[Babar]

Oct 23, 2017 10:02:17 GMT -5 southie said:

Oct 23, 2017 9:34:08 GMT -5 FreeBall said:

What if Nebraska doesn't lose another match?

They would be no worse than co-champions of the Big Ten and would have H2H wins over both Penn State and Minnesota. Not sure how you would justify seeding both of those teams ahead of the Huskers at that point.

Nebraska's losses to Oregon, Florida, and Northern Iowa in non-conference are what place them below PSU and Minnesota. Committee proved last season that the body of work and overall RPI trumps conference championships.

With the NCAA volleyball committee who knows . . . but most NCAA committees do not value matches the first month of the season as much as they do the last quarter. They also value road wins against top opponents much more than they do home wins. The committee usually does a decent job in selecting the top 64 teams but their seeding of the top sixteen teams has been more suspect.
IMO

[southie]

Oct 23, 2017 10:38:57 GMT -5 Babar said:

Oct 23, 2017 10:02:17 GMT -5 southie said:

Nebraska's losses to Oregon, Florida, and Northern Iowa in non-conference are what place them below PSU and Minnesota. Committee proved last season that the body of work and overall RPI trumps conference championships.

With the NCAA volleyball committee who knows . . . but most NCAA committees do not value matches the first month of the season as much as they do the last quarter. They also value road wins against top opponents much more than they do home wins. The committee usually does a decent job in selecting the top 64 teams but their seeding of the top sixteen teams has been more suspect.
IMO

Agreed. And, the rationale they used last season might not be exactly the same this season. What was new last season was that Washington's and Kansas' outright conference championships didn't give them the nod over conference runnerups, Stanford and Texas.