FINALIZED 2017 Bracketology (11/26)

[BeachbytheBay]

RPI School /seed
13 Iowa State /14
14 Wichita State
15 BYU
16 Cal Poly
17 UCLA /13
18 Wisconsin /15
19 Kansas /16

I still would simply switch BYU & Wisconsin in this bracket. Wisky's winning %s in their quality games doesn't justify the seed. I think BYU not seeded/hosting is the biggest mistake though in the bracketology this year, if it happens.

That being said, have to love the 3 potential 2nd round match-ups with this bracket - Utah-BYU, Wichita-Kansas, & UCLA-Poly - some great storylines for those pairings if they happen and 3 top 20 match-ups. Of course, if one did switch Wisky-BYU, that potential 2nd round Utah-Wisky pairing would be pretty compelling.

Read more: volleytalk.proboards.com/thread/70953/finalized-2017-bracketology-11-26?page=51#ixzz4zY8Nu05E

[FreeBall]

Nov 26, 2017 6:04:00 GMT -5 trojansc said:

-Geography is NOT my (or the committee's) friend this year. It is looking really difficult to minimize the number of flights without really compromising the bracket. I did try to balance the best fairness while realistically minimizing flights. I wasn't able to find too many options. This might be the most # of flights I've seen since doing this.

I didn't spend much time analyzing your projected bracket, but one change to reduce flights would be to swap Notre Dame and Pittsburgh. Notre Dame is a drive-in to Wisconsin, so this change would save one flight.

[rainbowbadger]

Nov 26, 2017 10:29:19 GMT -5 FreeBall said:

Nov 26, 2017 6:04:00 GMT -5 trojansc said:

-Geography is NOT my (or the committee's) friend this year. It is looking really difficult to minimize the number of flights without really compromising the bracket. I did try to balance the best fairness while realistically minimizing flights. I wasn't able to find too many options. This might be the most # of flights I've seen since doing this.

I didn't spend much time analyzing your projected bracket, but one change to reduce flights would be to swap Notre Dame and Pittsburgh. Notre Dame is a drive-in to Wisconsin, so this change would save one flight.

Fair point. At first I thought Norte Dame would be a drive-in to Minneapolis also, but per Google Maps it’s 502 miles. I know the NCAA’s calculator is the only one that counts, but I doubt it’d be 100+ miles off of Google.

[bprtbone]

This is so tough between North Texas and Iowa. I like both teams and would love to see them get in.

My biggest disappointment in all of this is Michigan State playing themselves out of a seed over the last 2-3 weeks. I was really hoping for a nearby sub-regional, now I'm looking at a 5 hour drive to Lexington or 6+ to Madison. Both of those sites are also the only ones within 400 miles for UM and MSU, though most think they will be headed west. Michigan vs. Wisconsin in R2 would be quite the matchup.

[rainbowbadger]

Nov 26, 2017 11:03:47 GMT -5 bprtbone said:

This is so tough between North Texas and Iowa. I like both teams and would love to see them get in.

My biggest disappointment in all of this is Michigan State playing themselves out of a seed over the last 2-3 weeks. I was really hoping for a nearby sub-regional, now I'm looking at a 5 hour drive to Lexington or 6+ to Madison. Both of those sites are also the only ones within 400 miles for UM and MSU, though most think they will be headed west. Michigan vs. Wisconsin in R2 would be quite the matchup.

But that can’t happen, can it? Isn’t one of the rules that in-conference matchups can’t happen until the second weekend? So the Mitten Twins will head west to keep them out of a bracket with a Big Ten team.

[hawkfan]

Oct 16, 2017 17:14:05 GMT -5 trojansc said:

I could not concur more about the thanks to you for all of the work, time, research and analysis put into this. Wow! I also think your summary of Iowa here is spot on and sadly, could be correct about where this ends up for the Hawks. But here's hoping this IS a "miss" for you and we get a shot at this for the 1st time in...well, a LONG time. 

I realize this is inconsequential to impacting the substantiation for the selection but I do want to point out that Iowa would actually have SIX victories over NCAA Tournament teams, not just one as you referenced: Michigan, Princeton, American, Coastal Carolina (x2) and Howard. Again, I understand that the RPIs for these added teams aren't high enough to impact the logic used but thought worth highlighting. 

Good luck to all and GO HAWKS!

[Wiswell]

Nov 26, 2017 10:43:04 GMT -5 rainbowbadger said:

Nov 26, 2017 10:29:19 GMT -5 FreeBall said:

I didn't spend much time analyzing your projected bracket, but one change to reduce flights would be to swap Notre Dame and Pittsburgh. Notre Dame is a drive-in to Wisconsin, so this change would save one flight.

Fair point. At first I thought Norte Dame would be a drive-in to Minneapolis also, but per Google Maps it’s 502 miles. I know the NCAA’s calculator is the only one that counts, but I doubt it’d be 100+ miles off of Google.

Having done the tedious drive through South Bend many times, it's about 260 miles. Madison would be roughly the halfway point to MSP.

I would tend to agree on BYU over UW, in which case I'd have no clue over where they might go.

[BeachbytheBay]

now wouldn't it be funny if all the committee actually did was golf, dine, booze, ...and wait for Bracketology to come out, and then just tweek a team/seed a two

would make their work/life so much easier.

[bruinsgold]

Wait, Purdue to the Austin Regional now? Again? Geez, they were just there in 2015... Not my favorite place for them to play.

[scottysocc]

Curious... does this committee consider geographical convenience when doing the bracket? I would assume they would be encouraged to minimize flight expenses and travel if possible. How much of a factor is that?

[trojansc]

Nov 26, 2017 6:34:35 GMT -5 brybast said:

I really appreciate all this work you've put into this. Amazing effort and great analysis.

I'm really interested to see how the committee doles out those final few bids among the likes of Charleston, Maryland, North Texas, Iowa, LSU and Auburn. These decisions ential some of the quintessential dilemmas of low-SOS high-win mid-majors vs. higher-SOS middle-of-pack BCS schools, and in some cases of deference to RPI vs. quality wins.

I'm also hoping that the committee gives at least some insight into (a) who were their last teams in/out, and (b) their rationale for making those final decisions.

<abbr>I think of those teams you mentioned, College of Charleston and Maryland should probably get in. The top-25 victory, if you are within RPI striking distance, has been a major factor of teams jumping with a higher RPI. If we do a straight RPI Cutoff - College of Charleston makes the list. I don't see how you drop them over someone else. North Texas makes the list, but do you jump Iowa over them? That's the only question I have. 8 more hours to find out! I don't like being wrong, but there are some instances I can accept it. What i won't accept is: LSU/Auburn over North Texas/Iowa.</abbr>

[trojansc]

Nov 26, 2017 8:28:53 GMT -5 minncoach said:

based on the fig stats as of now, if I'm on the committee....given the criteria and past precedent, I'm gonna say:

1- Penn State
8- Washington
9- USC
16- BYU

2- Nebraska
7- Minnesota
10- Utah
15- Kansas

3- Florida
6- Texas
11- Baylor
14- UCLA

4- Stanford
5- Kentucky
12- Creighton
13- Iowa State

Read more: volleytalk.net/thread/70953/finalized-2017-bracketology-11-26?page=50#ixzz4zXmEkL92

----

Cakewalk regional for Stanford if this comes to pass. KY, Creighton and Iowa State are three of the most overrated teams in the RPI. They are #10, #26 and #22 in Massey vs Washington (#8), USC (#16) and BYU (#7) in the Penn State region. And lucky Florida would get Texas (#4), Baylor (#20) and UCLA (#12). RPI flaws don't just affect who gets in but also creates lop-sided regionals. Let's hope the final bracket is more balanced.

We only differ on one seed, and I agree with you. I actually think BYU has a legitimate case to be seeded. If I'm wrong on the seeds, I hope it is BYU over Wisconsin.

[trojansc]

Nov 26, 2017 9:23:07 GMT -5 rainbowbadger said:

trojansc, I’m curious as to your logic for the final seeds. Specifically Wisconsin, of course, but the pattern. You skipped down over the mid-majors to seed UCLA, Wisconsin, and Kansas.

RPI School /seed
13 Iowa State /14
14 Wichita State
15 BYU
16 Cal Poly
17 UCLA /13
18 Wisconsin /15
19 Kansas /16

Are you reading the committee’s seeding of PSU over San Diego last year as a precedent of preference for Power 5 teams? Is geography involved? Kansas/Wichita State and UCLA/Cal Poly isn’t a big shift, but seeding Wisconsin over BYU is a significant relocation that could avoid some flights for Midwest teams the first weekend.

Sheff has gone on the record as saying he thinks Wisconsin won’t be seeded. Which would realistically mean we’re either going to Iowa State or flying somewhere.

I think UCLA is definitely seeded. Wisconsin and Kansas could potentially not be. And if I'm wrong there, I won't be too upset. I actually believe that BYU might deserve a seed more. I just don't know why but I couldn't envision the committee giving it to them. In either scenario, I think it can be slightly justified. BYU has a common opponent win over Ohio State, and has 2 top-25 wins just like Wisconsin but with less opportunity. Wisconsin's schedule was brutal, having to play 6 matches against the Top 7 RPI.

It's a difficult season to predict that last seed spot. I don't think it goes to Cal Poly or Wichita. If I'm wrong, it's most likely BYU over Wisconsin

[BeachbytheBay]

Nov 26, 2017 13:24:28 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Nov 26, 2017 9:23:07 GMT -5 rainbowbadger said:

trojansc, I’m curious as to your logic for the final seeds. Specifically Wisconsin, of course, but the pattern. You skipped down over the mid-majors to seed UCLA, Wisconsin, and Kansas.

RPI School /seed
13 Iowa State /14
14 Wichita State
15 BYU
16 Cal Poly
17 UCLA /13
18 Wisconsin /15
19 Kansas /16

Are you reading the committee’s seeding of PSU over San Diego last year as a precedent of preference for Power 5 teams? Is geography involved? Kansas/Wichita State and UCLA/Cal Poly isn’t a big shift, but seeding Wisconsin over BYU is a significant relocation that could avoid some flights for Midwest teams the first weekend.

Sheff has gone on the record as saying he thinks Wisconsin won’t be seeded. Which would realistically mean we’re either going to Iowa State or flying somewhere.

I think UCLA is definitely seeded. Wisconsin and Kansas could potentially not be. And if I'm wrong there, I won't be too upset. I actually believe that BYU might deserve a seed more. I just don't know why but I couldn't envision the committee giving it to them. In either scenario, I think it can be slightly justified. BYU has a common opponent win over Ohio State, and has 2 top-25 wins just like Wisconsin but with less opportunity. Wisconsin's schedule was brutal, having to play 6 matches against the Top 7 RPI.

It's a difficult season to predict that last seed spot. I don't think it goes to Cal Poly or Wichita. If I'm wrong, it's most likely BYU over Wisconsin

I actually think BYU over Kansas might be the last change (or Wisky)

although have to admit the Utah-BYU & Kansas-Wichita pairings make the bracket more interesting than if BYU got a\it's own seed/host

there's always one bracket with 3 top 25 teams - and usually in California

[trojansc]

Nov 26, 2017 13:29:03 GMT -5 BeachbytheBay said:

Nov 26, 2017 13:24:28 GMT -5 trojansc said:

I think UCLA is definitely seeded. Wisconsin and Kansas could potentially not be. And if I'm wrong there, I won't be too upset. I actually believe that BYU might deserve a seed more. I just don't know why but I couldn't envision the committee giving it to them. In either scenario, I think it can be slightly justified. BYU has a common opponent win over Ohio State, and has 2 top-25 wins just like Wisconsin but with less opportunity. Wisconsin's schedule was brutal, having to play 6 matches against the Top 7 RPI.

It's a difficult season to predict that last seed spot. I don't think it goes to Cal Poly or Wichita. If I'm wrong, it's most likely BYU over Wisconsin

I actually think BYU over Kansas might be the last change (or Wisky)

although have to admit the Utah-BYU & Kansas-Wichita pairings make the bracket more interesting than if BYU got a\it's own seed/host

there's always one bracket with 3 top 25 teams - and usually in California

UCLA threw a big wrench in the equation - and I think it ended up getting Cal Poly shipped to USC. USC is likely to be slightly better than UCLA in seed and RPI - so I think they get whoever finishes higher in RPI (San Diego or Cal Poly) and Stanford gets a less tough #2 seed in their subregional.

Hawaii could be literally sent anywhere - USC, Stanford, UCLA, Washington... even Baylor or Texas!