FINALIZED 2017 Bracketology (11/26)

[watchervb]

Thank you, Trojansc. Your thread this year has been amazing.

[bluepenquin]

Florida had passed Kentucky on RPI Futures earlier this evening. They have now passed them on Figstats. I think this will stick, but it is only by .0009.

I have wondered how the committee will handle Kentucky vs. Florida. I have had the assumption that Florida needed Kentucky out of the way in order to clear a path to be a top 4 seed, but the reverse wouldn't work. Maybe I have a built in biased that Kentucky will not be a regional host? Anyway, I think it may be important for Florida to have a better RPI than Kentucky.

[ay2013]

based on the fig stats as of now, if I'm on the committee....given the criteria and past precedent, I'm gonna say:

1- Penn State
8- Washington
9- USC
16- BYU

2- Nebraska
7- Minnesota
10- Utah
15- Kansas

3- Florida
6- Texas
11- Baylor
14- UCLA

4- Stanford
5- Kentucky
12- Creighton
13- Iowa State

[trojansc]

Give me about 2 hours and I'll have this finalized for yall

[hookem1]

Nov 26, 2017 1:35:52 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Give me about 2 hours and I'll have this finalized for yall

Thanks for all the hard work you do! We appreciate it 

[ilalum92]

Amazing that you predicted OSU losing to Illinois in their final match disqualifying them for the postseason.. kudos!

Thanks for all your hard work

[ay2013]

Dear committee, can we please leave Missouri out? Thanks. If only Marshall and Nevada could have gotten a few extra points...we'd only probably have to endure 2 SEC teams in the bracket this year. le sigh.

[trojansc]

This post is finalized. This is the Final RPI I was using:

1 Penn State
2 Florida
3 Kentucky
4 Texas
5 Stanford
6 Nebraska
7 Minnesota
8 Washington
9 Utah
10 Creighton
11 Southern California
12 Baylor
13 Iowa State
14 Wichita State
15 BYU
16 Cal Poly
17 UCLA
18 Wisconsin
19 Kansas
20 San Diego
21 Louisville
22 Oregon
23 Michigan State
24 Colorado
25 Purdue
26 Illinois
27 Pittsburgh
28 Western Kentucky
29 Michigan
30 Marquette
31 Colorado State
32 Oregon State
33 Miami-FL
34 Missouri
35 VCU
36 Missouri State
37 Hawaii
38 Washington State
39 High Point
40 Ntore Dame
41 Kennesaw State
42 Northern Iowa
43 Florida State
44 Ohio State
45 LSU
46 College of Charleston
47 North Texas
--------------------------
48 James Madison
49 NC State
50 Iowa
51 Dayton
52 Maryland
53 Auburn
54 Denver
55 Arkansas
56 Butler
57 Georgia
64 Alabama
68 Villanova
71 North Carolina

[trojansc]

Some Final thoughts:

-It was really hard to determine the last couple seeds. Not sure who really deserved it. Maybe BYU still has an outside chance, but I don't see it looking good for any of the 3 mid-majors (BYU, Wichita State, Cal Poly)

-Geography is NOT my (or the committee's) friend this year. It is looking really difficult to minimize the number of flights without really compromising the bracket. I did try to balance the best fairness while realistically minimizing flights. I wasn't able to find too many options. This might be the most # of flights I've seen since doing this.

-Seeding is always a little difficult to predict. I think I got the top 4 right, but after that, 5-8 can be jumbled up pretty much any which way. There's a lot of conflicting results and I feel that it is more difficult to get a sense on the committee's seeding than their at-large bids. Last year gave me a lot of evidence (Texas over KU, Penn State over San Diego) so I tried to keep that in mind.

-Regarding at-larges: My least confidence is in North Texas. I really don't think Missouri should be safe, but their RPI leads me to think there's no way the committee leaves them out. Iowa can easily be in the conversation, but I think they are out. LSU getting in the tournament would be a shame on the committee. The only bid I should be wrong on is Iowa over North Texas. Besides that, I'd like to see what kind of excuse the committee offers up. It seemed to be important last year as the committee chair said "I think we got the right 64 teams in the tournament". I think I did with my list. I think North Texas should be rewarded over Iowa.


Good luck to everyone tomorrow! Remember if your team is listed as OUT, only 2 teams in 5 years have gotten into the NCAA's after I predicted them to be out! On the flipside, if I predicted your team in, you should be able to breathe a little easier tomorrow!

[brybast]

Nov 26, 2017 6:04:00 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Some Final thoughts:

-It was really hard to determine the last couple seeds. Not sure who really deserved it. Maybe BYU still has an outside chance, but I don't see it looking good for any of the 3 mid-majors (BYU, Wichita State, Cal Poly)

-Geography is NOT my (or the committee's) friend this year. It is looking really difficult to minimize the number of flights without really compromising the bracket. I did try to balance the best fairness while realistically minimizing flights. I wasn't able to find too many options. This might be the most # of flights I've seen since doing this.

-Seeding is always a little difficult to predict. I think I got the top 4 right, but after that, 5-8 can be jumbled up pretty much any which way. There's a lot of conflicting results and I feel that it is more difficult to get a sense on the committee's seeding than their at-large bids. Last year gave me a lot of evidence (Texas over KU, Penn State over San Diego) so I tried to keep that in mind.

-Regarding at-larges: My least confidence is in North Texas. I really don't think Missouri should be safe, but their RPI leads me to think there's no way the committee leaves them out. Iowa can easily be in the conversation, but I think they are out. LSU getting in the tournament would be a shame on the committee. The only bid I should be wrong on is Iowa over North Texas. Besides that, I'd like to see what kind of excuse the committee offers up. It seemed to be important last year as the committee chair said "I think we got the right 64 teams in the tournament". I think I did with my list. I think North Texas should be rewarded over Iowa.


Good luck to everyone tomorrow! Remember if your team is listed as OUT, only 2 teams in 5 years have gotten into the NCAA's after I predicted them to be out! On the flipside, if I predicted your team in, you should be able to breathe a little easier tomorrow!

I really appreciate all this work you've put into this. Amazing effort and great analysis.

I'm really interested to see how the committee doles out those final few bids among the likes of Charleston, Maryland, North Texas, Iowa, LSU and Auburn. These decisions ential some of the quintessential dilemmas of low-SOS high-win mid-majors vs. higher-SOS middle-of-pack BCS schools, and in some cases of deference to RPI vs. quality wins.

I'm also hoping that the committee gives at least some insight into (a) who were their last teams in/out, and (b) their rationale for making those final decisions.

[minncoach]

based on the fig stats as of now, if I'm on the committee....given the criteria and past precedent, I'm gonna say:

1- Penn State
8- Washington
9- USC
16- BYU

2- Nebraska
7- Minnesota
10- Utah
15- Kansas

3- Florida
6- Texas
11- Baylor
14- UCLA

4- Stanford
5- Kentucky
12- Creighton
13- Iowa State

Read more: volleytalk.proboards.com/thread/70953/finalized-2017-bracketology-11-26?page=50#ixzz4zXmEkL92

----

Cakewalk regional for Stanford if this comes to pass. KY, Creighton and Iowa State are three of the most overrated teams in the RPI. They are #10, #26 and #22 in Massey vs Washington (#8), USC (#16) and BYU (#7) in the Penn State region. And lucky Florida would get Texas (#4), Baylor (#20) and UCLA (#12). RPI flaws don't just affect who gets in but also creates lop-sided regionals. Let's hope the final bracket is more balanced.

[hornshouse23]

As always, very nice work and thank you! Now to see how it all plays ours. So many different scenarios at play this year will make for a very fun bracket unveiling tonight.

[vbfanantic]

Nov 26, 2017 8:28:53 GMT -5 minncoach said:

based on the fig stats as of now, if I'm on the committee....given the criteria and past precedent, I'm gonna say:

1- Penn State
8- Washington
9- USC
16- BYU

2- Nebraska
7- Minnesota
10- Utah
15- Kansas

3- Florida
6- Texas
11- Baylor
14- UCLA

4- Stanford
5- Kentucky
12- Creighton
13- Iowa State

Read more: volleytalk.net/thread/70953/finalized-2017-bracketology-11-26?page=50#ixzz4zXmEkL92

----

Cakewalk regional for Stanford if this comes to pass. KY, Creighton and Iowa State are three of the most overrated teams in the RPI. They are #10, #26 and #22 in Massey vs Washington (#8), USC (#16) and BYU (#7) in the Penn State region. And lucky Florida would get Texas (#4), Baylor (#20) and UCLA (#12). RPI flaws don't just affect who gets in but also creates lop-sided regionals. Let's hope the final bracket is more balanced.

I heard that the Wolverines are headed to the farm:)

[BeachbytheBay]

Nov 26, 2017 6:04:00 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Some Final thoughts:

-It was really hard to determine the last couple seeds. Not sure who really deserved it. Maybe BYU still has an outside chance, but I don't see it looking good for any of the 3 mid-majors (BYU, Wichita State, Cal Poly)

-Geography is NOT my (or the committee's) friend this year. It is looking really difficult to minimize the number of flights without really compromising the bracket. I did try to balance the best fairness while realistically minimizing flights. I wasn't able to find too many options. This might be the most # of flights I've seen since doing this.

-Seeding is always a little difficult to predict. I think I got the top 4 right, but after that, 5-8 can be jumbled up pretty much any which way. There's a lot of conflicting results and I feel that it is more difficult to get a sense on the committee's seeding than their at-large bids. Last year gave me a lot of evidence (Texas over KU, Penn State over San Diego) so I tried to keep that in mind.

-Regarding at-larges: My least confidence is in North Texas. I really don't think Missouri should be safe, but their RPI leads me to think there's no way the committee leaves them out. Iowa can easily be in the conversation, but I think they are out. LSU getting in the tournament would be a shame on the committee. The only bid I should be wrong on is Iowa over North Texas. Besides that, I'd like to see what kind of excuse the committee offers up. It seemed to be important last year as the committee chair said "I think we got the right 64 teams in the tournament". I think I did with my list. I think North Texas should be rewarded over Iowa.


Good luck to everyone tomorrow! Remember if your team is listed as OUT, only 2 teams in 5 years have gotten into the NCAA's after I predicted them to be out! On the flipside, if I predicted your team in, you should be able to breathe a little easier tomorrow!

I still think Hawaii could be left out, not probable, but they are one team the committee could find a reason to leave out in favor of Iowa or North Texas.

[rainbowbadger]

trojansc, I’m curious as to your logic for the final seeds. Specifically Wisconsin, of course, but the pattern. You skipped down over the mid-majors to seed UCLA, Wisconsin, and Kansas.

RPI School /seed
13 Iowa State /14
14 Wichita State
15 BYU
16 Cal Poly
17 UCLA /13
18 Wisconsin /15
19 Kansas /16

Are you reading the committee’s seeding of PSU over San Diego last year as a precedent of preference for Power 5 teams? Is geography involved? Kansas/Wichita State and UCLA/Cal Poly isn’t a big shift, but seeding Wisconsin over BYU is a significant relocation that could avoid some flights for Midwest teams the first weekend.

Sheff has gone on the record as saying he thinks Wisconsin won’t be seeded. Which would realistically mean we’re either going to Iowa State or flying somewhere.