Olympic qualification process 2020

[acrossthepond]

Jun 17, 2019 8:59:23 GMT -5 acrossthepond said:

Apr 9, 2019 2:30:07 GMT -5 acrossthepond said:

Since a bunch of 4* events has been played over the last few weeks, I thought I'd update my list. Some things have been getting clearer, although nothing is written in stone yet as the World Championship and the 5* events can create a major shift in rankings. My ranking is not based on points, but likelihood of qualifying (my subject view) 

Tier 1 - Olympic Favorites (Points - Tournaments - Avg. Points):

1 Mol/Sorum (4880 - 7 - 697)
2 Stoyanovsky/Krasilnikov (4960 - 8 - 620)
3 Semenov/Leshukov (2480 - 4 - 620)
4 Evandro/Bruno (3040 - 6 - 506)
5 Fijalek/Bryl (3520 - 6 - 586)
6 Herrera/Gavira (3200 - 6 - 533)

Tier 1.5 - Almost Locks:
7 Dalhausser/Lucena (1760 - 4 - 440)
8 Kantor/Losiak (1920 - 4 - 480)
9 Nicolai/Lupo (1440 - 3 - 480)
10 Alison/Alvaro (2680 - 6 - 446)
11 Thole/Wickler (2640 - 6 - 440)

Tier 2 - Surprise if they don't qualify
12 Grimalt/Grimalt (3320 - 7 - 474)
13 Cherif/Ahmed Tijan (3240 - 8 - 405)
14 Crabb/Bourne (3160 - 7 - 451)
15 Pedlow/Schachter (3020 - 7 - 431)

Tier 3 - In contention
16 Brouwer/Meeuwsen (2480 - 6 - 413)
17 Plavins/Tocs  (2880 - 7 - 411)
18 Smedins/Samoilovs (2160 - 6 - 360)
Perusic/Schweiner (2560 - 6 - 426)
Koekelkoren/ van Walle (1200 - 3 - 400)
Rossi/Carambula (1840 - 5 - 368)

Tier 4 - Uphill battle
Doppler/Horst (2120 - 7 - 302)
Seidl/Waller (2600 - 8 - 325)
Saxton / O'Gorman (2120 - 7 - 302)
Heidrich/Gerson (2000 - 6 - 333)
Varenhorst/van de Velde (1520 - 5 - 304)
Bergmann/Harms (2580 - 8 - 322)

Not on the list due to country restrictions:
Liamin/Myskiv (1280 - 3 - 426)
Gibb/Crabb (1240 - 3 - 413)
Guto/Saymon (2000 - 5 - 400)
Andro/George (2300 - 6 - 383)
Brunner/Priddy (2120 - 6 - 353)

Off the list
Ranghieri/Caminati (1380 - 6 - 230)
Virgen/Ontiveros (960 - 3 - 320) 
Gonzalez/Reyes (40 - 1 - 40)
Krou/Rowlandson (1340 - 5 - 268)
Beeler/Krattiger (1020 - 5 - 204)

What's to consider?
- At this point many teams have 1 or 2 bad results (Cherif/Ahmed, Carambula/Rossi) which severely drop their average points per tournament. Other teams (Grimalt/Grimalt, Perusic/Schweiner) have one or two massive results which make them seem more secure than they maybe really are.

- These 18 spots already include the 1 spot for the World Champions and the 2 spots awarded in the Olympic Qualification tournament since most probable teams from the Top 15 will win those events. This means that those spots will be added to the official 15 spots via Olympic Ranking.

- Teams that have not played many tournaments so far will have to watch out to get enough tournaments until June 2020. 12 tournaments will be counted, but if you want to even out a few bad results teams should have played at least 15 tournaments (4*, 5* WCs). This could be a challenge for e.g. Lucena/Dalhausser, Gibb/Crabb, Kantor/Losiak, Nicolai/Lupo or Koekelkoren/Van Walle

Update after the World Champs and the 2 (official) 5* events. Rome will follow as a hiddnen 5* event. FYI - this list is ordered due to subjective criterie based on what I personall have seen in the events.

Tier 1 - Olympic Favorites (Points - Tournaments - Avg. Points - Worst Result in pts.):
1 Mol/Sorum (9360 - 11 - 850 - 480)
2 Stoyanovsky/Krasilnikov (7760 - 11 - 705 - 400)

Tier 1.5 - In contention for medals:
3 Fijalek/Bryl (6280 - 10 - 628 - 400)
4 Alison/Alvaro (6520 - 11 - 592 - 320)
5 Evandro/Bruno (6200 - 11 - 563 - 320)
6 Thole/Wickler (4960 - 9 - 551 - 240)
7 Nicolai/Lupo (4320 - 7 - 617 - 480)
8 Brouwer/Meeuwsen (5440 - 10 - 544 - 320)

Tier 2 - Locks to qualify
9 Herrera/Gavira (5440 - 10 - 544 - 400)
10 Semenov/Leshukov (4720 - 8 - 590 - 400)
11 Dalhausser/Lucena (4880 - 9 - 542 - 240)

Tier 3 - Should qualify
12 Crabb/Bourne (5600 - 11 - 509 - 320)
13 Kantor/Losiak (4040 - 8 - 505 - 360)
14 Cherif/Ahmed Tijan (5920 - 13 - 493 - 320)
15 Plavins/Tocs (5400 - 11 - 490 - 320)

Tier 3 - In contention
16 Pedlow/Schachter (5620 - 12 - 468 - 320)
17 Grimalt/Grimalt (5120 - 11 - 465 - 240)
18 Perusic/Schweiner (4680 - 10 - 468 - 240)
Rossi/Carambula (3640 - 8 - 455 - 40)
Heidrich/Gerson (4280 - 10 - 428 - 240)

Tier 4 - Uphill battle
Smedins/Samoilovs (3920 - 10 - 392 - 240)
Saxton / O'Gorman (4140 - 11 - 376 - 40)
Seidl/Waller (4000 - 11 - 363 - 160)
Ehlers/Flüggen (4100 - 12 - 341 - 40)

Not on the list due to country restrictions:
Liamin/Myskiv (3160 - 6 - 526 - 320)
Andro/George (5540 - 11 - 503 - 160)
Gibb/Crabb (3860 - 8 - 482 - 300)
Guto/Saymon (3880 - 9 - 431 - 240)
Slick/Allen (2800 - 7 - 400 - 160)
Brunner/Priddy (3180 - 9 - 353 - 240)

Off the list
Doppler/Horst (3600 - 10 - 360 - 200)
Varenhorst/van de Velde (2580 - 8 - 322)
Bergmann/Harms (4100 - 13 - 341 - 60)
Koekelkoren/ van Walle (2580 - 8 - 160)

Key take aways:
- At the moment the top 16 teams are guaranteed a spot via World Rankings (Since Stoyanovsky/Krasilknikov are qualified as World Champions)
- Assuming that the 2 spots awarded through the Olympic Qualification tournament go to teams/countries inside the top 16 teams 2 further spots will be awarded via world rankings - that's why I count to 18
- Grimalt/Grimalt have been one of the few teams who have decreased their average points during the span of the WC and the 5* tournaments
- Semenov/Leshukov also decreased their average point total during that span
- Lupo/Nicolai have a highly inflated average points total since they mostly played WCH and 5* tournaments and have nearly no 4* tournaments in their point total. Their average points will very likely decrease once they reach 12 tournaments
- Ehlers/Flüggen are in contention for me due to their last 2 tournaments. Otherwise they would have been off the list
- If you take out the 40 point result from Rossi/Carambula they actually have 514 points/tournament average. Since they will definitely drop this result I probably should have put them one tier better

Detailed Olympic Rankings can be found here: 12ndr.at/olympic-ranking-men

[acrossthepond]

As for the women:

Tier 1 - Olympic Favorites (Points - Tournaments - Avg. Points - Worst Result in pts.):
1 Klineman/Ross (8160 - 11 - 741 - 480)
2 Pavan/Humana-Paredes (8240 - 12 - 686 - 320)
3 Ana Patricia/Reecca (8320 - 14 - 693 - 480)
4 Agatha/Duda (6600 - 10 - 660 - 400)

Tier 2 - In contention for medals:
5 Clancy/Artacho (4740 - 8 - 592 - 300)
6 Bansley/Wilkerson (6300 - 11 - 572 - 400)
7 Sweat/Walsh (6540 - 14 - 545 - 400)
8 Betschart/Hüberli (5400 - 10 - 540 - 320)
9 Hermannova/Slukova (4080 - 8 - 510 - 240)
10 Makrogizova/Kholomina (4960 - 10 - 496 - 320)

Tier 3 - Locks to qualify
11 Keizer/Meppelink (4520 - 9 - 502 - 320)
12 Liliana/Elsa (4600 - 10 - 460 - 320)
13 Borger/Sude (4480 - 10 - 448 - 240)

Tier 4 - Fight until the end
14 Strbova/Dubovcva (4720 - 11 - 429 - 240)
15 Menegatti/Orsi Toth (4700 - 11 - 427 - 240)
16 Xia/Wang (4680 - 11 - 425 - 240)
17 Stubbe/Van Iersel (4680 - 11 - 425 - 240)
18 Graudina/Kravcenoka (4120 - 10 - 412 - 160)
Heidrich/Verge-Depre (4080 - 10 - 408 - 240)
Ludwig/Kozuch (3540 - 9 - 393 - 240)

Tier 4 - Uphill battle
Schützenhöfer/Plesiutschnig (3800 - 10 - 380 - 200)
Lahti/Parkikinen (3400 - 9 - 377 - 240)
Birlova/Ukolova (3280 - 9 - 364 - 60)

Tier 5 - Host Country
19 Ishii/Murakami (4140 - 15 - 345 - 300)

Not on the list due to country restrictions:
Maria Antonelli/Carol (6000 - 10 - 600 - 320)
Claes/Sponcil (5720 - 11 - 520 - 240)
Hughes/Summer (4080 - 8 - 510 - 320)
Barbara/Fernanda (4960 - 10 - 496 - 240)
Larsen/Stockman (5440 - 11 - 494 - 320)
Talita/Taiana Lima (4080 - 9 - 453 - 160)
Ittlinger/Laboureur (3160 - 8 - 395 - 240)

Noteable:
- I have no idea how the internal rankings in Brazil are. Maria Antonelli/Carl performed very well at the 5* events so they might sneak in 
- Tier 4 is incredibly close. It will be interesting to see who will make it
- Ludwig/Kozuch are far closer to the qualification ranks than I thought

Full Rankings can be found here: 12ndr.at/olympic-ranking-women

[dunninla3]

^ your list is really helpful except that in the real world a few of the finishes each team has currently will be replaced by higher point finishes in the (2) 4* and (1) 5* events remaining this year, and the (5) 4* and (2) 3* in 2020. That makes momentum important since 40% of the qualification period is still ahead of us, and a team with good momentum will increase their average points/finish faster than a team with poor momentum.

For that reason I see it 50/50 that Slaes will surpass KWJ/BS over the next ten months of finishes.   Slaes is showing better momentum than KWJ/BS.

[acrossthepond]

You are right of course. It's rather an as-is situation, but some developments (Walsh/Sweat vs. Claes/Sponcil) are impossible to predict at the moment. That's why I split it into tiers. The teams off the list due to country restrictions could also have been put into the tier-section.

[dunninla3]

^ another poster, can't remember moniker, proposed we use top 7 finishes rather than all their finishes as more representative of where the teams stand still ten months from the finish line.

Using that method, Slaes just edged past KWJ/BS by finishing ahead of them in Vienna ... and Stocsen closed the gap on both of them a little.

You know, I think it would be fun for you to add a column in your spreadsheet entitled:

Top 8

and simply give the sum of points for their top 8 finishes.   This would I think be the closest approximation to where teams stand at this point in the 20 month qualification process that still has about ten opportunities to improve position vis a vis other teams.

After Rome, the column would change to Top 9, etc.  After The Hague, to Top 10.   you get the idea.

[keeweekid]

Top 8- assuming Top 8 point totals will be part of teams overall Top 12 points used for Olympic qual. period.

LADIES:
KWJ/Brooke- 4700. Have played minimum 12 tournaments. Worst point finish in Top 12: 400. This will most likely be replaced after Rome

Slaes: 4680. Have only played 11 tournaments so far. Moscow will make 12. Worst point finish 400 of which they have 4 of these. Need to replace these with 480 point finishes to "cancel" out KWJ/Brooke's worst finishes. So, still work to do on the lower end.

Stockman: 4400. Have only played 11 tournaments so far. Moscow will make 12. Worst point finish is 320 (2 of them). They need BIG point finishes as well as replace a decent number of lower point finishes to "cancel" out KWJ/Brooke's worst finishes.

*With 8-9 tournaments of 3* or higher to go, I would still submit that until Rome is finished, Top 7 should be used, then move to Top 8 after Rome but this is all speculative anyhow. IF only say 9 tournaments left to go, the only certain thing is that the Top 3 point finishes are locked in.

GUYS: Using Top 8 as well.

Dalcena: 4640 points. Still need 3 more finishes to meet the min. 12 tournament requirement.

2T: 4640 points. Need 1 more tournament to meet 12 tournament min. requirement. Thus, up to them to get Top 15 ranking (or whatever top ranking they need once you subtract auto-qualifying teams) and hold off Gibb/Taylor & Olympic birth is...surprising theirs as not many would have seen that coming a year ago.
Not helping their cause is being out for Moscow &  Rome...Rome possibly the last BIG point tournament in the qualification process. Interesting note, of their 4640 points that they have through using their Top 8 point finishes, almost ~25% of these points come from their 4th place finish at Worlds. This one tournament just might carry them to the Olmpics...but still need to keep top world ranking.

Gibb/Taylor: 3860 points. What was presumed the 2nd US team for the Olympics has really dug themselves a hole. In the 6 tournaments that were 4* or higher in 2019, they have yet to reach the quarters. With 2T getting that 4th in WC, that one monster finish could be the difference if Gibb/Taylor do not start putting up good finishes and specifically a really good finish in Rome. Not sure what their strategy was to skip four 4* events in early 2019 but this strategy could come back to haunt them. I can see, if i squint hard, that they want to be in peak physical shape for this fairly grueling run of travel and back to back tournaments that has happened over the past 6 weeks, but skipping tournaments early means if they did not produce good finishes (they haven't), then they are running out of tournaments to make-up points. Seems like if they wanted to skip tournaments, they would have played these tournaments early and IF they put up good finishes, strategically skip a tournament or 2 for some R&R.

Gibb/Taylor having an odd year. Avg. to below avg. finishes on FIVB and while doing well on the AVP, they have unexpectedly lost to some so-so teams early in AVP events making them trek through the losers bracket, which they did well but still...seems like they are having some lapses in play in AVP and have not even had 1 quasi "good" event in FIVB this year. While I don't think anyone confuses Gibb/Taylor with a top FIVB team, i find it somewhat surprising that they have yet to even sniff the quarters this year.  Clock is surprising ticking on this team. Oddly, there best bet might be for 2T not to make Top 15 (or whatever is needed) and then comes down to Continental Cup and whatever USAV decides for who gets 2nd US spot IF one of the teams makes the finals.

[dunninla3]

thanks for adding up the top 8.

P.S.  you know "Ladies", while intended to be complimentary, has become kind of an antiquated, classist, sexist term

[bvbllr]

any idea why australia is not playing more tournaments? i realize there is a lot of travel involved for them but feels a bit risky to stay at only 8 tournaments when they could have easily secured their spot by now.

[sonofdogman]

Aug 6, 2019 23:51:52 GMT -5 dunninla3 said:

thanks for adding up the top 8.

P.S.  you know "Ladies", while intended to be complimentary, has become kind of an antiquated, classist, sexist term

Not where I'm from. We still use gentlemen too.

[acrossthepond]

Aug 20, 2019 7:08:23 GMT -5 bvbllr said:

any idea why australia is not playing more tournaments? i realize there is a lot of travel involved for them but feels a bit risky to stay at only 8 tournaments when they could have easily secured their spot by now.

One of them is injured.

[rainbowcard]

Aug 20, 2019 12:46:23 GMT -5 acrossthepond said:

Aug 20, 2019 7:08:23 GMT -5 bvbllr said:

any idea why australia is not playing more tournaments? i realize there is a lot of travel involved for them but feels a bit risky to stay at only 8 tournaments when they could have easily secured their spot by now.

One of them is injured.

Mariafe has an injury but I don’t know to what extent, also in a comment she says they will be back soon

[beachindoor]

Maria Antonelli and Carol Solberg just announced their split and end of partnership through instagram this morning. So sad to see. I loved seeing the two of them play together.

[bombsaway]

Where does Crabb/Gibb 4th in Rome put them compared to Crabb/Bourne now?