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Post by n00b on Oct 21, 2018 9:19:48 GMT -5
I still think that if the #2 team in RPI is undefeated, including a win over RPI #1, they'll be rewarded with the #1 seed in the tournament.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 21, 2018 9:44:43 GMT -5
Looking at the potential regional hosts and their current RPI Future rank: 1) Stanford: Stanford is currently 7-1 against the Top 25 and 4-0 against 26-50 and plenty of matches left. They are highly likely to finish #1 in RPI and will have the most top 25 wins and the most top 50 wins. They will be the overall #1 team (I believe). 2) BYU: I still have BYU as the best team in the country. I think they have had the best season to date and I believe they are the best team (or I am not convinced that Stanford is better). But seeding is about RPI. BYU is currently 3-0 against the T25 and 7-0 against the 26-50. The 26-50 number could get worse depending on where LMU, Pepperdine, Portland, and St. Mary's end up. Currently all of them are in the Top 50. San Diego did some damage to BYU this weekend. At this point, the profile is easily good enough to be a regional seed. 3) Minnesota: Minnesota at #3 in RPI and undefeated in the Big Ten is a regional seed. They are 5-2 against the T25 and 2-0 against 26-50. They have currently played less T50 teams than BYU - and have the 2 losses. Minnesota has 4 more T25 matches left and 1 more T50 (if Indiana stays in the T50) - so they have opportunity to pad these quality wins (as long as they continue to win). 4) Pittsburgh: Pitt is 2-0 against the T25 and 4-0 against 26-50. It would help if Louisville gets into the T25, but Pittsburgh only plays them once - and for Washington to stay in the T25. I think they need for #5/6 RPI to not have real strong resumes. 5) Illinois: 6-3 against the T25 and 2-0 against 26-50. Illinois has 3 more matches left against the T25 - and winning a couple of these I think would be enough to get a #4 seed ahead of Pittsburgh (or Texas). 6) Texas: 4-3 against the T25 and 1-1 against 26-50. Texas could get inside the top 4 in RPI - but the nitty gritty will be very weak for a regional seed. Baylor is just barely in the T25 - so the top 25 record could fall to 3-3. I don't think they have much of a chance. 7) USC: 5-5 against the T25 and 3-0 against 26-50. USC still has 4 matches left against the T25. There is clearly a path for them to be regional seed. 8) Wisconsin: 5-2 against the T25 and 2-0 against 26-50. Wisconsin still has 5 matches left against the T25 - so they still have a path. I think everyone else is out of chances for a top 4 seed. Do you mind taking a look at what the final RPI would be if Pitt finishes undefeated and Illinois loses to Nebraska and Penn State? JW who would get the final top 4 seed. Would Illinois get the 5 ahead of Texas? I have last week's simulation data at work - I will take a look at this after this week's simulation on Monday. Interesting point - getting the #5 seed looks to be pretty important this year. Avoids Stanford/BYU/Minnesota - plus it is likely to avoid Nebraska/Penn State on the back end (12/13 seeds).
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 21, 2018 10:05:08 GMT -5
I still think that if the #2 team in RPI is undefeated, including a win over RPI #1, they'll be rewarded with the #1 seed in the tournament. I think it will be 'random' on whether being #1 or #2 in terms of matchups is better. Nebraska is looking like a #7-9 seed. I think I would rather take my chances on Nebraska being an 8 or 9 and go as a #2 and avoid them in the regionals. But to your point - I think this would be an interesting conceptual test. Looking at the typical criteria used by the committee - Stanford would have the edge over BYU on everything but H2H. At no other place in the seeding process would they go with the only H2H advantage (I could be wrong about this?). So would the committee apply 'undefeated' to their criteria - and would/could this improve Pittsburgh's standing? On a different topic - a couple of huge matchups today for potential seeding. Everyone is talking about UNI and Marquette - which is huge. But also we should be looking at Cincy/UCF. Cincy has a bit of a potentially sneaky good resume. They are currently 5-1 against the RPI Futures top 50 and a win today would get them a Top 25 win. they have the potential to beat UCF 2X and get 2 T25 wins - and an RPI well within the Top 16. UCF has the T25 win against USC and a sweep of Cincinnati could get them 3 T25 wins but only 1 other top 50 win - they just play Wichita State once this year. I think Cincy has the better path to a seed among the two - plus I think they are the better team.
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Post by tallguy86 on Oct 21, 2018 10:38:29 GMT -5
Do you mind taking a look at what the final RPI would be if Pitt finishes undefeated and Illinois loses to Nebraska and Penn State? JW who would get the final top 4 seed. Would Illinois get the 5 ahead of Texas? I have last week's simulation data at work - I will take a look at this after this week's simulation on Monday. Interesting point - getting the #5 seed looks to be pretty important this year. Avoids Stanford/BYU/Minnesota - plus it is likely to avoid Nebraska/Penn State on the back end (12/13 seeds). It would be crazy if Nebraska and PSU got the 12 and 13 seeds. The seedlings would be a crap shoot at that point. Also the 5 would meet the 12?
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Post by tallguy86 on Oct 21, 2018 10:39:39 GMT -5
if Nebraska, PSU, and Kentucky were all double digit seeds. Seeds basically wouldn’t matter all all. Every road would be very tough.
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Post by spikerthemovie on Oct 21, 2018 11:13:25 GMT -5
2) BYU: I still have BYU as the best team in the country. I think they have had the best season to date and I believe they are the best team (or I am not convinced that Stanford is better). But seeding is about RPI. BYU is currently 3-0 against the T25 and 7-0 against the 26-50. The 26-50 number could get worse depending on where LMU, Pepperdine, Portland, and St. Mary's end up. Currently all of them are in the Top 50. San Diego did some damage to BYU this weekend. At this point, the profile is easily good enough to be a regional seed. t I also believe BYU passes the eye test but isn't this outlook a bit rosy for them, RPI-wise? For one thing, Portland is not currently in the Top 50, so that 26-50 win and the one next week aren't a thing and at least one of those other West Coast hovering-around-50 teams seems also likely to drop below, especially with a few SEC/ACC teams looking like they have some RPI upside that the WCC doesn't. So BYU ends the season 6-0 against 26-50? And it'll be that issue the committee has not been terribly consistent on adjudicating: BYU has great wins but, come tournament time, they'll all have been months ago.
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Post by Boof1224 on Oct 21, 2018 12:15:16 GMT -5
Looking at the potential regional hosts and their current RPI Future rank: 1) Stanford: Stanford is currently 7-1 against the Top 25 and 4-0 against 26-50 and plenty of matches left. They are highly likely to finish #1 in RPI and will have the most top 25 wins and the most top 50 wins. They will be the overall #1 team (I believe). 2) BYU: I still have BYU as the best team in the country. I think they have had the best season to date and I believe they are the best team (or I am not convinced that Stanford is better). But seeding is about RPI. BYU is currently 3-0 against the T25 and 7-0 against the 26-50. The 26-50 number could get worse depending on where LMU, Pepperdine, Portland, and St. Mary's end up. Currently all of them are in the Top 50. San Diego did some damage to BYU this weekend. At this point, the profile is easily good enough to be a regional seed. 3) Minnesota: Minnesota at #3 in RPI and undefeated in the Big Ten is a regional seed. They are 5-2 against the T25 and 2-0 against 26-50. They have currently played less T50 teams than BYU - and have the 2 losses. Minnesota has 4 more T25 matches left and 1 more T50 (if Indiana stays in the T50) - so they have opportunity to pad these quality wins (as long as they continue to win). 4) Pittsburgh: Pitt is 2-0 against the T25 and 4-0 against 26-50. It would help if Louisville gets into the T25, but Pittsburgh only plays them once - and for Washington to stay in the T25. I think they need for #5/6 RPI to not have real strong resumes. 5) Illinois: 6-3 against the T25 and 2-0 against 26-50. Illinois has 3 more matches left against the T25 - and winning a couple of these I think would be enough to get a #4 seed ahead of Pittsburgh (or Texas). 6) Texas: 4-3 against the T25 and 1-1 against 26-50. Texas could get inside the top 4 in RPI - but the nitty gritty will be very weak for a regional seed. Baylor is just barely in the T25 - so the top 25 record could fall to 3-3. I don't think they have much of a chance. 7) USC: 5-5 against the T25 and 3-0 against 26-50. USC still has 4 matches left against the T25. There is clearly a path for them to be regional seed. 8) Wisconsin: 5-2 against the T25 and 2-0 against 26-50. Wisconsin still has 5 matches left against the T25 - so they still have a path. I think everyone else is out of chances for a top 4 seed. How is wisky in big psu out. Wisky has 3 loses in conference psu 2. If psu were to run table in big they would get in ahead of wisky. I guess I don’t understand how Illinois and wisky can be in that list and not psu since both have one more loss and both still have to play psu
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Post by gnu2vball on Oct 21, 2018 12:49:01 GMT -5
Looking at the potential regional hosts and their current RPI Future rank: 1) Stanford: Stanford is currently 7-1 against the Top 25 and 4-0 against 26-50 and plenty of matches left. They are highly likely to finish #1 in RPI and will have the most top 25 wins and the most top 50 wins. They will be the overall #1 team (I believe). 2) BYU: I still have BYU as the best team in the country. I think they have had the best season to date and I believe they are the best team (or I am not convinced that Stanford is better). But seeding is about RPI. BYU is currently 3-0 against the T25 and 7-0 against the 26-50. The 26-50 number could get worse depending on where LMU, Pepperdine, Portland, and St. Mary's end up. Currently all of them are in the Top 50. San Diego did some damage to BYU this weekend. At this point, the profile is easily good enough to be a regional seed. 3) Minnesota: Minnesota at #3 in RPI and undefeated in the Big Ten is a regional seed. They are 5-2 against the T25 and 2-0 against 26-50. They have currently played less T50 teams than BYU - and have the 2 losses. Minnesota has 4 more T25 matches left and 1 more T50 (if Indiana stays in the T50) - so they have opportunity to pad these quality wins (as long as they continue to win). 4) Pittsburgh: Pitt is 2-0 against the T25 and 4-0 against 26-50. It would help if Louisville gets into the T25, but Pittsburgh only plays them once - and for Washington to stay in the T25. I think they need for #5/6 RPI to not have real strong resumes. 5) Illinois: 6-3 against the T25 and 2-0 against 26-50. Illinois has 3 more matches left against the T25 - and winning a couple of these I think would be enough to get a #4 seed ahead of Pittsburgh (or Texas). 6) Texas: 4-3 against the T25 and 1-1 against 26-50. Texas could get inside the top 4 in RPI - but the nitty gritty will be very weak for a regional seed. Baylor is just barely in the T25 - so the top 25 record could fall to 3-3. I don't think they have much of a chance. 7) USC: 5-5 against the T25 and 3-0 against 26-50. USC still has 4 matches left against the T25. There is clearly a path for them to be regional seed. 8) Wisconsin: 5-2 against the T25 and 2-0 against 26-50. Wisconsin still has 5 matches left against the T25 - so they still have a path. I think everyone else is out of chances for a top 4 seed. How is wisky in big psu out. Wisky has 3 loses in conference psu 2. If psu were to run table in big they would get in ahead of wisky. I guess I don’t understand how Illinois and wisky can be in that list and not psu since both have one more loss and both still have to play psu Hey Boof, it's just a list created midway through the B1G season. It don't mean sh*t. Let's see what happens on the court.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 21, 2018 13:32:43 GMT -5
Looking at the potential regional hosts and their current RPI Future rank: 1) Stanford: Stanford is currently 7-1 against the Top 25 and 4-0 against 26-50 and plenty of matches left. They are highly likely to finish #1 in RPI and will have the most top 25 wins and the most top 50 wins. They will be the overall #1 team (I believe). 2) BYU: I still have BYU as the best team in the country. I think they have had the best season to date and I believe they are the best team (or I am not convinced that Stanford is better). But seeding is about RPI. BYU is currently 3-0 against the T25 and 7-0 against the 26-50. The 26-50 number could get worse depending on where LMU, Pepperdine, Portland, and St. Mary's end up. Currently all of them are in the Top 50. San Diego did some damage to BYU this weekend. At this point, the profile is easily good enough to be a regional seed. 3) Minnesota: Minnesota at #3 in RPI and undefeated in the Big Ten is a regional seed. They are 5-2 against the T25 and 2-0 against 26-50. They have currently played less T50 teams than BYU - and have the 2 losses. Minnesota has 4 more T25 matches left and 1 more T50 (if Indiana stays in the T50) - so they have opportunity to pad these quality wins (as long as they continue to win). 4) Pittsburgh: Pitt is 2-0 against the T25 and 4-0 against 26-50. It would help if Louisville gets into the T25, but Pittsburgh only plays them once - and for Washington to stay in the T25. I think they need for #5/6 RPI to not have real strong resumes. 5) Illinois: 6-3 against the T25 and 2-0 against 26-50. Illinois has 3 more matches left against the T25 - and winning a couple of these I think would be enough to get a #4 seed ahead of Pittsburgh (or Texas). 6) Texas: 4-3 against the T25 and 1-1 against 26-50. Texas could get inside the top 4 in RPI - but the nitty gritty will be very weak for a regional seed. Baylor is just barely in the T25 - so the top 25 record could fall to 3-3. I don't think they have much of a chance. 7) USC: 5-5 against the T25 and 3-0 against 26-50. USC still has 4 matches left against the T25. There is clearly a path for them to be regional seed. 8) Wisconsin: 5-2 against the T25 and 2-0 against 26-50. Wisconsin still has 5 matches left against the T25 - so they still have a path. I think everyone else is out of chances for a top 4 seed. How is wisky in big psu out. Wisky has 3 loses in conference psu 2. If psu were to run table in big they would get in ahead of wisky. I guess I don’t understand how Illinois and wisky can be in that list and not psu since both have one more loss and both still have to play psu Wisconsin is not 'in' - they just have a lot more RPI potential. Wisconsin has a great RPI schedule, Illinois has a very good RPI schedule. Minnesota and Nebraska schedules are not nearly as good and Penn State is the worst of the 5 by a large margin. And then Illinois comes into conference play with a better non-conference record. Penn State will have to have multiple fewer losses in conference to get an RPI better than either Wisconsin or Illinois.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 21, 2018 19:59:33 GMT -5
Here is this week's bracket. This is based on what I think the committee would do if the season ended with the current RPI Futures.
1. Stanford: Texas Tech, Saint Marys, Iona 16. Michigan: Louisville, Illinois State, Ball State 8. Texas: Texas State, Rice, Stephen F. Austin 9. Nebraska: UCLA, Kansas, VCU
4. Illinois: Missouri, Arizona, Austin Peay 13. Marquette: Purdue, Colorado State, Green Bay 5. Pittsburgh: Cincinnati, James Madison, American 12. Washington State: Baylor, Pepperdine, Denver
2. BYU: South Carolina, Utah, Idaho 15. UCF: Oregon, Florida State, High Point 7. Wisconsin: Northern Iowa, Tennessee, Stony Brook 10. Kentucky: East Tennessee State, Kennesaw State, Alabama A&M
3. Minnesota: Creighton, Kansas State, Howard 14. Florida: Washington, Duke, Princeton 6. USC: Cal Poly, LMU, New Mexico State 11. Penn State: Dayton, Syracuse, LIU Brooklyn
I took the projected conference winner as the automatic (regardless of their being a conference tournament). This had VCU as an automatic and Dayton as an at-large.
Last 4 in: Duke, Kansas State, LMU, and Tennessee Last 4 out: Wichita State, Portland, Alabama, UC Irvine
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Post by bayarea on Oct 21, 2018 20:08:22 GMT -5
I find it weird that San Diego is projected out at #84, with a 14-14 record. I believe it's possible, given the way they have played over the past 3 weeks or so, that they won't drop any more matches except one against BYU. They've dominated LMU and Pepperdine the first go-around. USD is currently 11-9 and could finish their conference schedule 7-1, to end at 18-10. Would that be enough to pull them into the tournament? From your projections, bluepenquin, it looks like several other WCC teams are well positioned at the moment: Pepperdine, Saint Mary's, LMU.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 21, 2018 20:27:08 GMT -5
I find it weird that San Diego is projected out at #84, with a 14-14 record. I believe it's possible, given the way they have played over the past 3 weeks or so, that they won't drop any more matches except one against BYU. They've dominated LMU and Pepperdine the first go-around. USD is currently 11-9 and could finish their conference schedule 7-1, to end at 18-10. Would that be enough to pull them into the tournament? From your projections, bluepenquin , it looks like several other WCC teams are well positioned at the moment: Pepperdine, Saint Mary's, LMU. This is something I will have to look at tomorrow. I currently have them at #75 with a 15-13 record. 18-10 might get them there, but I don't know w/o running the simulation and USD having a large enough sample size of going 18-10. That probably happens this week.
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Post by Disc808 on Oct 21, 2018 20:31:53 GMT -5
BYU can have the #1 seed. Last time Stanford had it they were smacked by the Nittany Lions
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Post by jayj79 on Oct 21, 2018 20:32:34 GMT -5
I find it weird that San Diego is projected out at #84, with a 14-14 record. I believe it's possible, given the way they have played over the past 3 weeks or so, that they won't drop any more matches except one against BYU. They've dominated LMU and Pepperdine the first go-around. USD is currently 11-9 and could finish their conference schedule 7-1, to end at 18-10. Would that be enough to pull them into the tournament? From your projections, bluepenquin, it looks like several other WCC teams are well positioned at the moment: Pepperdine, Saint Mary's, LMU. I believe Blue's projections utilize Pablo as part of the algorithm to calculate win probabilities for the various matches. I'm not sure if Pablo factors in recent trends versus earlier season data. So yes, it is possible for a team to improve their positioning if they win matches that they are "projected" to lose (and don't lose matches that they are "projected" to win)
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 21, 2018 21:26:27 GMT -5
Let's talk about Michigan.
Michigan has slipped to #14 in RPI Futures. Their resume in terms of RPI wins is something similar (worse) than UCF and Cal Poly. Here is a list of Michigan's 9 best wins in terms of RPI Futures rank:
Purdue - 23 Colorado State - 40 High Point - 55 Valparaiso - 56 Notre Dame - 57 Notre Dame - 57 Indiana - 59 Ohio State - 60 Iowa - 62
They are 1-3 against the top 25 and 1-0 against the top 50. Some of those teams on this list could get inside the Top 50. They have T25 matches remaining against Wisconsin 2X, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Penn State. Say they win one of these and go 2-7 against the T25 and 3-7 against the T50 - does this get them a seed? I wouldn't assume they get a seed with a T16 RPI.
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