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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Oct 22, 2018 9:47:34 GMT -5
To all those whining about their team's RPI, there's a really simple answer. If you want your team to have a decent RPI convince your coach to schedule stronger teams in the non-conference part of the season. This isn't rocket science. And frankly, your coach already knows this. Pitt and Illinois, for example, chose to really challenge their teams with tough competition at the start of the season. And by going unbeaten then they have earned choice positioning for the playoffs. Other teams chose to compete against much weaker opponents for their own reasons. Too bad. Choose tougher competition next time. I can't believe Illinois ran through this gauntlet unscathed. Too bad they didn't play University of Denver and Air Force. They could have been the Colorado volleyball champion. UNC-Wilmington Colorado State Northern Colorado Colorado Washington Bowling Green Cleveland State UC Irvine Northern Iowa Lipscomb Creighton Let's see.... #30 (Pablo) Colorado #26 Washington #24 Northern Iowa #18 Creighton #43 Colorado State The others are all about 115. For a non-conference schedule? Yeah, that's ok, considering that their B1G conference schedule includes 6 matches against top 10 teams. That's a really nice schedule. Contrast it with Penn St, for example. Sure, Penn St has matches against #2 Stanford and #12 Oregon and #45 Texas A&M, but after that it goes to the 120s and even well below. It's easy to see how Illinois's schedule comes out ahead. We can look at it more objectively, even. Here are the average*** Pablo ratings for non-conference opponents for selected teams (teams with the top rated schedules and others) 1. Texas 6912 (Texas has a great non-conference schedule, but drops to #2 in overall schedule because the Big 12 isn't up to the level of the other conferences) 2. USC 6465 3. UNI 6360 (another very strong non-conference schedule, but hurt by the conference) 4. Stanford 6357 5. Kentucky 6200 6. Marquette 6125 7. BYU 6103 8. Wisconsin 6075 9. Oregon 6040 10. Washington 5980 11. Iowa State 5877 12. Pitt 5830 13. Illinois 5820 Others Minnesota 5715 Washington State 5600 Michigan 5565 Nebraska 5535 Notre Dame 5435 Purdue 5395 Penn State 5283 Illinois looks to have the 2nd most challenging non-conference schedule in the B1G. Despite playing Stanford, Penn St's overall schedule isn't near as good. You can also see that a lot of non-B1G and Pac12 teams have better non-conference schedules because 1) they have to, since they don't have the conference schedule to compare, and 2) they can, because they can schedule both B1G and P12 teams (Pac 12 teams don't have as many quality options because they can't play conference teams in non-conference) The lesson of this is, when examining quality of non-conference schedules, don't put too much emphasis on 1 match against a top, top team. Depth is also important. It can be harder to play 8 decent teams than to play 2 hard matches and 6 very poor teams. ***the average here is the 50/50 rating, the rating that would be needed to expect a .500 record in the matches; in the limit of an even distribution, it reduces to the mean, but accounts for skew in the distributions; based on this week's Pablo ratings; rankings of schedules are just among the teams I selected and is not necessarily exhaustive
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 22, 2018 9:50:42 GMT -5
Here is the expected Conference winning % - and the number of expected conference wins. Again, the lower the % (or expected wins) the tougher the schedule.
Penn State - .709 (14.4) Wisconsin - .717 (14.5) Illinois - .749 (15.1) Nebraska - .756 (15.1) Minnesota - .808 (16.2)
Minnesota is probably going to win conference and they have been very good in conference. But I don't if people realize how much easier their conference schedule is than the other 4 teams.
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Post by tallguy86 on Oct 22, 2018 10:04:41 GMT -5
Here is the expected Conference winning % - and the number of expected conference wins. Again, the lower the % (or expected wins) the tougher the schedule. Penn State - .709 (14.4) Wisconsin - .717 (14.5) Illinois - .749 (15.1) Nebraska - .756 (15.1) Minnesota - .808 (16.2) Minnesota is probably going to win conference and they have been very good in conference. But I don't if people realize how much easier their conference schedule is than the other 4 teams. Easier because Minnesota doesn’t have to play itself ha
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 22, 2018 10:27:06 GMT -5
Here is the expected Conference winning % - and the number of expected conference wins. Again, the lower the % (or expected wins) the tougher the schedule. Penn State - .709 (14.4) Wisconsin - .717 (14.5) Illinois - .749 (15.1) Nebraska - .756 (15.1) Minnesota - .808 (16.2) Minnesota is probably going to win conference and they have been very good in conference. But I don't if people realize how much easier their conference schedule is than the other 4 teams. Easier because Minnesota doesn’t have to play itself ha Fair point. So let us make Minnesota as an opponent the equal of the average of the other 4 teams (7100 rating instead of the 7600 rating for Minnesota). Here is the expected w/l% for a 7200 rated team:
1. Penn State - .729 2. Wisconsin - .734 3. Illinois - .756 4. Nebraska - 766 5. Minnesota - .813
I don't think there is any way around the idea that Minnesota has the easier conference schedule - and substantially easier.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 22, 2018 10:29:18 GMT -5
Finally, here is the expected overall w/l% for a 7200 rated team. Going from toughest to easiest schedule.
1. Wisconsin - .749 2. Penn State - .761 3. Illinois - .756 4. Nebraska - .803 5. Minnesota - .813
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Post by vbkahuna on Oct 22, 2018 10:33:44 GMT -5
To all those whining about their team's RPI, there's a really simple answer. If you want your team to have a decent RPI convince your coach to schedule stronger teams in the non-conference part of the season. This isn't rocket science. And frankly, your coach already knows this. Pitt and Illinois, for example, chose to really challenge their teams with tough competition at the start of the season. And by going unbeaten then they have earned choice positioning for the playoffs. Other teams chose to compete against much weaker opponents for their own reasons. Too bad. Choose tougher competition next time. I can't believe Illinois ran through this gauntlet unscathed. Too bad they didn't play University of Denver and Air Force. They could have been the Colorado volleyball champion. UNC-Wilmington Colorado State Northern Colorado Colorado Washington Bowling Green Cleveland State UC Irvine Northern Iowa Lipscomb Creighton I happen to be a mathematician, so I actually understand what an RPI is...and isn't. You obviously don't. But hey, you don't have to because you're a self-identified fan of a really great team, regardless of its RPI. Cheers.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 22, 2018 10:36:46 GMT -5
Contrast it with Penn St, for example. Sure, Penn St has matches against #2 Stanford and #12 Oregon and #45 Texas A&M, but after that it goes to the 120s and even well below. It's easy to see how Illinois's schedule comes out ahead. We can look at it more objectively, even. Here are the average*** Pablo ratings for non-conference opponents for selected teams (teams with the top rated schedules and others) 1. Texas 6912 (Texas has a great non-conference schedule, but drops to #2 in overall schedule because the Big 12 isn't up to the level of the other conferences) 2. USC 6465 3. UNI 6360 (another very strong non-conference schedule, but hurt by the conference) 4. Stanford 6357 5. Kentucky 6200 6. Marquette 6125 7. BYU 6103 8. Wisconsin 6075 9. Oregon 6040 10. Washington 5980 11. Iowa State 5877 12. Pitt 5830 13. Illinois 5820 Others Minnesota 5715 Washington State 5600 Michigan 5565 Nebraska 5535 Notre Dame 5435 Purdue 5395 Penn State 5283 Illinois looks to have the 2nd most challenging non-conference schedule in the B1G. Despite playing Stanford, Penn St's overall schedule isn't near as good. You can also see that a lot of non-B1G and Pac12 teams have better non-conference schedules because 1) they have to, since they don't have the conference schedule to compare, and 2) they can, because they can schedule both B1G and P12 teams (Pac 12 teams don't have as many quality options because they can't play conference teams in non-conference) The lesson of this is, when examining quality of non-conference schedules, don't put too much emphasis on 1 match against a top, top team. Depth is also important. It can be harder to play 8 decent teams than to play 2 hard matches and 6 very poor teams. ***the average here is the 50/50 rating, the rating that would be needed to expect a .500 record in the matches; in the limit of an even distribution, it reduces to the mean, but accounts for skew in the distributions; based on this week's Pablo ratings; rankings of schedules are just among the teams I selected and is not necessarily exhaustive The problem in using average Pablo rating (50/50 rating) is that strength of schedule is different for considering a top 5 type team vs. a #50 team. But I think this illustrates why Illinois has such a good RPI schedule and also a better average Pablo rating schedule. They created more winnable games than PSU as a top tier team. They were way more efficient in their matchups, while PSU had too many clunkers that drives down their average Pablo rating and in this case hurts their RPI SOS.
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Post by pavsec5row10 on Oct 22, 2018 10:38:52 GMT -5
Here is the expected Conference winning % - and the number of expected conference wins. Again, the lower the % (or expected wins) the tougher the schedule. Penn State - .709 (14.4) Wisconsin - .717 (14.5) Illinois - .749 (15.1) Nebraska - .756 (15.1) Minnesota - .808 (16.2) Minnesota is probably going to win conference and they have been very good in conference. But I don't if people realize how much easier their conference schedule is than the other 4 teams. Not sure I understand how you determined "expected winning percentage". Is this for a Pablo 7210 team, or using the team's actual rating?
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Post by vbcoltrane on Oct 22, 2018 10:39:25 GMT -5
Easier because Minnesota doesn’t have to play itself ha Fair point. So let us make Minnesota as an opponent the equal of the average of the other 4 teams (7100 rating instead of the 7600 rating for Minnesota). Here is the expected w/l% for a 7200 rated team:
1. Penn State - .729 2. Wisconsin - .734 3. Illinois - .756 4. Nebraska - 766 5. Minnesota - .813
I don't think there is any way around the idea that Minnesota has the easier conference schedule - and substantially easier.
What's making it easier? Michigan, Purdue, and Illinois only once must be the main thing. But, PSU, Neb and Wisc twice and Rutgers only once.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 22, 2018 10:48:05 GMT -5
Here is the expected Conference winning % - and the number of expected conference wins. Again, the lower the % (or expected wins) the tougher the schedule. Penn State - .709 (14.4) Wisconsin - .717 (14.5) Illinois - .749 (15.1) Nebraska - .756 (15.1) Minnesota - .808 (16.2) Minnesota is probably going to win conference and they have been very good in conference. But I don't if people realize how much easier their conference schedule is than the other 4 teams. Not sure I understand how you determined "expected winning percentage". Is this for a Pablo 7210 team, or using the team's actual rating? If we took a Pablo rated 7200 team (the average of the big 5 teams in the B1G this year) with these teams conference schedule - this would their expected conference w/l%. It would compare the win probability for a 7200 team against all 20 opponents on the Penn State (name the team) schedule. The lower the w/l% would mean the schedule was tougher for a great team.
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Post by pavsec5row10 on Oct 22, 2018 10:49:38 GMT -5
Fair point. So let us make Minnesota as an opponent the equal of the average of the other 4 teams (7100 rating instead of the 7600 rating for Minnesota). Here is the expected w/l% for a 7200 rated team:
1. Penn State - .729 2. Wisconsin - .734 3. Illinois - .756 4. Nebraska - 766 5. Minnesota - .813
I don't think there is any way around the idea that Minnesota has the easier conference schedule - and substantially easier.
What's making it easier? Michigan, Purdue, and Illinois only once must be the main thing. But, PSU, Neb and Wisc twice and Rutgers only once. Ding, ding, ding. I keep hoping there's a freak snowstorm and the Rutgers match has to be cancelled.
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Post by pavsec5row10 on Oct 22, 2018 10:51:16 GMT -5
Not sure I understand how you determined "expected winning percentage". Is this for a Pablo 7210 team, or using the team's actual rating? If we took a Pablo rated 7200 team (the average of the big 5 teams in the B1G this year) with these teams conference schedule - this would their expected conference w/l%. It would compare the win probability for a 7200 team against all 20 opponents on the Penn State (name the team) schedule. The lower the w/l% would mean the schedule was tougher for a great team. Thank you.
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Oct 22, 2018 10:58:33 GMT -5
The problem in using average Pablo rating (50/50 rating) is that strength of schedule is different for considering a top 5 type team vs. a #50 team. But I think this illustrates why Illinois has such a good RPI schedule and also a better average Pablo rating schedule. They created more winnable games than PSU as a top tier team. They were way more efficient in their matchups, while PSU had too many clunkers that drives down their average Pablo rating and in this case hurts their RPI SOS. I understand the difference, and thought about using an 80/20 rating instead. But as you note, when it comes to understanding the issue of RPI, the 50/50 rating probably makes more sense, so that's what I did. If use an 80/20 rating instead, I get Illinois 6772 Penn St 6678 Minnesota 7080 Wisconsin 7057 Nebraska 6723 That more closely resembles what you've come up with, but Penn St still isn't there. But so much of their schedule strength depends on that match against Stanford, so they go up as you increase the standard. If you are going with 7210 as your base, that's more like a 90/10 rating. To add in...Pitt 6788
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Post by gopherguy on Oct 22, 2018 11:06:53 GMT -5
Interesting.
If you look at the schedules for these 5 teams, Nebraska and Minnesota are the only ones that have 7 matches against the other four: Nebraska has Wisconsin only once (on the road), and Minnesota only has Illinois once (at home). They each play the other four twice. Illinois skips Penn State on the road and Minnesota at home, Penn State misses Wisconsin on the road and Illinois at home, and Wisconsin skips Nebraska on the road and Penn State at home.
To me, that makes it look like Nebraska and Minnesota have the more difficult schedules, although I suppose the margins between playing Michigan and Purdue once with Indiana and Northwestern twice must outweigh the difference at the top when looking at the full schedule. Nonetheless, I'm not convinced that Minnesota's schedule is "substantially easier" on anything but a mathematical basis.
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Post by badgerbreath on Oct 22, 2018 11:15:29 GMT -5
So, I really thought coming in to the season that UW had the easiest conference schedule of the top B1G teams because they only played Neb and PSU once. Trying to understand how it suddenly became the hardest schedule. Obviously the mix of the lower and middle tier teams must be why, but having a hard time seeing it. I would have guessed having Neb and PSU once would negate that effect.
It feels like the differences in schedule toughness must be pretty small for me to have to work that hard to figure it out.
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