|
|
Post by stevehorn on Nov 28, 2018 19:38:58 GMT -5
By the by, why is it that the team with the 2nd best odds of winning their sub-regional is not the 2nd best seed? In fact, THAT team is not even a top 4 seed. Why does THAT team always get this friggin' pass to a regional?
I thought Texas always had the easiest path!
|
|
|
|
Post by tomclen on Nov 28, 2018 19:43:04 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by hammer on Nov 28, 2018 19:45:43 GMT -5
Stanford only has a 0.6% greater chance of winning in the first round than Penn St., and I thought our cupcake was clearly the biggest one. Guess I was wrong. |
|
|
|
Post by mikegarrison on Nov 28, 2018 19:46:10 GMT -5
USC has a struggle to get to the regional, but once there they have pretty decent odds of advancing further. Some other teams with similar seeding have an easier path to the regional but then face harder 3/4 round opponents. |
|
|
|
Post by hammer on Nov 28, 2018 19:47:38 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by mikegarrison on Nov 28, 2018 19:48:22 GMT -5
Stanford only has a 0.6% greater chance of winning in the first round than Penn St., and I thought our cupcake was clearly the biggest one. Guess I was wrong. I'm sure 0.6% is well within the error bars, so it's not really for sure whose cupcake is the creamiest. |
|
|
|
Post by FreeBall on Nov 28, 2018 20:09:52 GMT -5
By the by, why is it that the team with the 2nd best odds of winning their sub-regional is not the 2nd best seed? In fact, THAT team is not even a top 4 seed. Why does THAT team always get this friggin' pass to a regional? The other day I grouped the field into four tiers, with the 16 seeds being Tier 1 and everyone else placed in RPI order within Tiers 2, 3 and 4. The ideal bracket (in the absence of geographical restrictions) would include a 1/2/3/4 grouping at each site, with 1 vs. 4 and 2 vs. 3 in the 1st round. This year only seven of the groups include a 1/2/3/4 mix: Minnesota, Illinois, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Creighton, Kentucky and Washington State. Underweighted groups include Stanford at 1/3/4/4, BYU at 1/3/3/4 and Penn State at 1/3/3/4. Overweighted groups include Texas at 1/2/2/3, UCF at 1/2/2/3 and Marquette at 1/2/2/4. |
|
|
|
Post by gophervbfan on Nov 28, 2018 20:55:12 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by tomclen on Nov 28, 2018 21:28:40 GMT -5
Nit pickers.
That's the problem with Volleytalk.
Too many cotton pickin' nit pickers.
|
|
|
|
Post by vballvball on Nov 28, 2018 21:39:41 GMT -5
Nit pickers. That's the problem with Volleytalk. Too many cotton pickin' nit pickers. uh ohhh.... TRIGGERED |
|
|
|
Post by Cruz'n on Nov 28, 2018 21:55:12 GMT -5
Nit pickers. That's the problem with Volleytalk. Too many cotton pickin' nit pickers. be careful, here comes shhh |
|
|
|
Post by Cruz'n on Nov 28, 2018 21:57:49 GMT -5
I am wondering how Bryant gets a 0.3% chance of beating Minnesota. I guess if they played a 1000 times; Bryant would win 3 times  GO HUSKERS That's because after about 900 matches or so, the players are so tired that the results become less predictable. |
|
bluepenquin
Hall of Fame
4-Time VolleyTalk Poster of the Year (2019, 2018, 2017, 2016), All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016) All-VolleyTalk 2nd Team 2023
Posts: 13,348 
|
Post by bluepenquin on Nov 28, 2018 22:09:45 GMT -5
75.7% - Wisconsin (96.1%)
15.6% - Pepperdine (59.4%)
8.0% - Northern Iowa (8.0%)
0.7% - Green Bay (3.9%)
Thanks for posting this! At the risk of coming across as a nitpick, methinks there was a transcription error in the odds for the Pepperdine v. UNI match. That or Rettke is scheduled to come out on the court between sets 2 and 3 to hype up the crowd for the Wisconsin match that follows this one and there's a 32.6% chance that confusion results and tournament directors just give her the win. Would complicate things if the second round match is Wisconsin v. Rettke. I'd tune in! Yep - brought over the wrong number - I have now corrected. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 28, 2018 23:31:49 GMT -5
Not a lot of respect for Illinois. Lowest winning odds of the To 4 seeds, and below lower seeds PSU and Kentucky.
|
|
|
|
Post by mikegarrison on Nov 28, 2018 23:34:24 GMT -5
Not a lot of respect for Illinois. Lowest winning odds of the To 4 seeds, and below lower seeds PSU and Kentucky. FWIW, computers don't really have "respect" for anybody. |
|
