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Post by pavsec5row10 on Nov 29, 2018 13:59:04 GMT -5
Actually it's correct for the purpose stated. Wasn't trying to claim that the Pablo percentages aren't better. I was basing it on your "toughest" and "easiest" subregional statement. Your approach does not assess the difficulty of the subregionals. Words.  |
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Post by mikegarrison on Nov 29, 2018 14:41:22 GMT -5
Am I the only one who confuses Creighton with Marquette? Why is that? I don't know. Have you tried asking your doctor? You do have health care, I hope? |
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Post by noblesol on Nov 29, 2018 15:53:08 GMT -5
I didn't see this posted anywhere - here are the Pablo odds on winning the subregional and making the sweet 16. % chance of winning the 1st round match in parenthesis.
96.6% - Stanford (100.0%)
2.5% - Loyola Marymount (60.8%)
0.9% - Duke (39.2%)
0% - Alabama State (0%)
53.4% - Washington State (80.6%)
26.1% - Tennessee (59.6%)
14.2% - Colorado State (40.4%)
6.4% - Northern Arizona (19.4%)
63.3% - Creighton (88.9%)
25.7% - Washington (66.9%)
8.0% - Saint Mary's (33.1%)
2.9% - South Dakota (11.1%)
88.1% - Penn State (99.4%)
9.3% - Syracuse (65.1%)
2.6% - Yale (34.9%)
0.1% - Howard (0.6%)
76.8% - Texas (90.8%)
9.9% - Rice (50.0%)
9.9% - Texas State (50.0%)
3.4% - Stephen F. Austin (9.2%)
72.9% - Pittsburgh (98.7%)
26.3% - Michigan (87.4%)
0.7% - Navy (12.6%)
0.1% - Iona (1.3%)
34.6% - Florida (57.0%)
30.7% - UCF (64.9%)
23.2% - Florida State (43.0%)
11.4% - Florida Gulf Coast (35.1%)
87.9% - BYU (98.1%)
9.3% - Utah (66.5%)
2.4% - Denver (33.5%)
0.4% - Stony Brook (1.9%)
84.4% - Illinois (96.9%)
11.4% - Louisville (65.2%)
3.4% - Dayton (34.8%)
0.8% - Eastern Michigan (3.1%)
59.6% - Marquette (82.4%)
18.5% - Illinois State (52.8%)
15.4% - Cincinnati (47.2%)
6.5% - High Point (17.6%)
54.7% - USC (90.9%)
34.2% - Cal Poly (69.1%)
9.8% - San Diego (30.9%)
1.3% - Samford (9.1%)
75.7% - Wisconsin (96.1%)
15.6% - Pepperdine (59.4%)
8.0% - Northern Iowa (8.0%)(40.6%)
0.7% - Green Bay (3.9%)
82.8% - Nebraska (95.6%)
8.8% - Arizona (52.6%)
7.2% - Missouri (47.4%)
1.2% - Hofstra (4.4%)
86.0% - Kentucky (97.7%)
9.8% - Purdue (62.3%)
3.7% - East Tennessee State (37.7%)
0.5% - Murray State (2.3%)
64.2% - Oregon (87.2%)
20.5% - Baylor (58.8%)
11.4% - Hawaii (41.2%)
3.9% - New Mexico State (12.8%)
87.8% - Minnesota (99.7%)
8.6% - Colorado (60.6%)
3.6% - South Carolina (39.4%)
0.0% - Bryant (0.3%)
Using the above 1st round Pablo% chance of winning, and comparing to Selection RPI (adjusted), the following Sel RPI upsets (50% or greater chance) are predicted in order of most likely:
Sub-region/match-up (Sel RPI)/Pablo chance for upset
3/Dayton (28) vs. Louisville (37)/65.2% chance Louisville upsets Dayton 1/Duke (44) vs. LMU (57)/60.8% chance LMU upsets Duke 2/South Carolina (32) vs. Colorado (50)/60.6% chance Colorado upsets South Carolina 6/UNI (16) vs. Pepperdine (35)/59.4% chance Pepperdine upsets UNI 14/Cincinnati (24) vs. Ill. St. (29)/52.8% chance Ill. St. upsets Cincinnati 7/Missouri (31) vs. Arizona (39)/52.6% chance Arizona upsets Missouri 5/Texas St. (22) vs. Rice (30)/50.0% chance Rice upsets Texas St.
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Post by bigfan on Nov 29, 2018 16:10:45 GMT -5
After WSU it looks pretty bleak for the teams.
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Post by gophervbfan on Nov 29, 2018 20:22:32 GMT -5
Bump
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Post by jayj79 on Nov 29, 2018 22:20:31 GMT -5
Am I the only one who confuses Creighton with Marquette? Why is that? all the Pac 12 teams are pretty much the same to me. |
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