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Post by BonJoeV on Nov 30, 2004 20:41:13 GMT -5
Checkout this Rich Kern/Pablo stuff.... [ftp]http://www.richkern.com/vb/ncaa/PabloOdds.asp[/ftp] Looks like Hawaii has something to be steamed about afterall. With their #3 seed, they have a 0.012 chance of making the FinalFour. Moderator Note: Added more detail to title.  |
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Post by TheSantaBarbarian on Nov 30, 2004 20:52:11 GMT -5
Interesting, the Gauchos aren't supposed to make it through the 2nd round.
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Post by GatorVball on Nov 30, 2004 21:05:43 GMT -5
Round 1
Florida .135
FAMU .865
No doubt about who is the favorite in that match. Say what you will, based on the past, but Florida is the clear underdog in this match and if they win, it will be an upset. That's not the pessimist in me speaking, it's the realist.
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Post by uptoit on Nov 30, 2004 21:07:21 GMT -5
As much as I hate to say it, I think he has the Washington match well predicted. UCLA will lose to Washington as they did last weekend. Unless Andy comes up with a miracle or Thompson gets injured (which I hope does not happen because she is a joy to watch--what a setter. And how about that freshman Morrison--wow she is great). Washington is just a better team--but UCLA can beat the others if they can figure out that 5th game curse. Good job on the odds.
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Post by huskervbfan on Nov 30, 2004 21:13:50 GMT -5
Round 1 Florida .135 FAMU .865 No doubt about who is the favorite in that match. Say what you will, based on the past, but Florida is the clear underdog in this match and if they win, it will be an upset. That's not the pessimist in me speaking, it's the realist. You really do need to read the FAQ on the Kern site for this explanation though. It's not really as bad as it looks here. |
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Post by BonJoeV on Nov 30, 2004 21:15:28 GMT -5
Hawaii @ second round 0.157
Colorado State @ second round 0.743
Now there's some home court advantage for you!
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Post by BonJoeV on Nov 30, 2004 21:16:42 GMT -5
You really do need to read the FAQ on the Kern site for this explanation though. It's not really as bad as it looks here. What's the short answer? |
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Post by I Luv Danny R on Nov 30, 2004 21:37:00 GMT -5
If Ringel from UCLA is on and if Heather plays they can beat Washington.. I think Brynn Murphy doen't get enough credit..
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Post by huskervbfan on Nov 30, 2004 21:52:11 GMT -5
[quote author=BonJoeV link=board=general&thread=1101865273&start=6#0 date=1101867402]
What's the short answer?[/quote]
FAMU plays such lousy competition they are very difficult to judge where they should be. Here is the section that applies:
The biggest errors show up when looking at teams with lots of lopsided matches (up or down). Florida A&M is particularly notorious in this regard. They are a very good team that plays in a very poor conference. Hence, a very large number of their matches end up being blowouts against very weak competition, which are basically ignored in the ranking (see section II-5). When this is the case, their ranking even at later stages of the season should be viewed with caution.
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Post by SaltNPepper on Nov 30, 2004 21:54:36 GMT -5
What we have to remember here is that while Pablo follows pretty close to the polls/RPI, etc. there are a few teams where it has some significant differences like with Hawaii and FAMU. That's the main reason Hawaii's chances "seem" low and FAMU's chances seem so high.
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Post by JT on Nov 30, 2004 22:36:03 GMT -5
[quote author= Looks like Hawaii has something to be steamed about afterall. With their #3 seed, they have a 0.012 chance of making the FinalFour.[/quote] Pablo rankings do not agree w/ the NCAA tourney seeding. Pablo's algorithm puts Hawaii ranked #27. If Pablo is right, then they didn't deserve the #3 seed, and will likely lose before making the Final Four. If Pablo is wrong, and Hawaii does deserve it's #3 seed, then they will probably not follow the probabilities computed by Pablo.  |
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Post by UCSBVball on Nov 30, 2004 22:49:59 GMT -5
If I read it correctly the odds for the 1st game are determined by Pablo rankings – as there is a probability that a team might not make it through the 1st match that is factored into the possibility of them winning the 2nd match (if you loose the 1st you do play the 2nd) – once again the rankings come in. If a team wins the 1st match and there is an upset allowing them to play a team with a weaker ranking the odds would need to be updated. Upsets and close matches will ripple through the odds quickly.
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Post by BonJoeV on Nov 30, 2004 23:06:11 GMT -5
If I read it correctly the odds for the 1st game are determined by Pablo rankings – as there is a probability that a team might not make it through the 1st match that is factored into the possibility of them winning the 2nd match (if you loose the 1st you do play the 2nd) – once again the rankings come in. If a team wins the 1st match and there is an upset allowing them to play a team with a weaker ranking the odds would need to be updated. Upsets and close matches will ripple through the odds quickly. Ok, you all can call me "confused" now. The ranking numbers (listed after the school in parentheses) appear to be RKPI.  |
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Post by JT on Nov 30, 2004 23:39:48 GMT -5
[quote author= BonJoeV link=board=general&thread=1101865273&start=12#0 date=1101873971] Ok, you all can call me "confused" now. The ranking numbers (listed after the school in parentheses) appear to be RKPI. [/quote] You have it right. The first number (when present) is the NCAA seeding. The second number is the RKPI. The probability that a given team will advance, though, is computed using the Pablo rankings (or more properly, the Pablo points for each school, plus any home court advantage. Neither the seedings, nor the RKPI, give a mechanism for computing a probability that teamX will beat teamY. Pablo does. |
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Post by pineapple on Dec 1, 2004 0:21:27 GMT -5
Pablo rankings do not agree w/ the NCAA tourney seeding. Pablo's algorithm puts Hawaii ranked #27. If Pablo is right, then they didn't deserve the #3 seed, and will likely lose before making the Final Four. If Pablo is wrong, and Hawaii does deserve it's #3 seed, then they will probably not follow the probabilities computed by Pablo. Say Pablo is right. Oh my! How in the world did they fool everyone! ;D |
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