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Post by tamz on May 29, 2019 11:21:35 GMT -5
Sort of off topic but I’m wondering what you think about this. Do you mean US and Brazil would both have 5 top 15 teams if FIVB didn’t do anything to balance country representation, or 5 Olympic qualifiers each (top 24)? I’d agree with the latter came but the former seems a bit more extreme given how people were forecasting the end of American and Brazilian dominance a couple years ago. I assume you agree that the 2 Canadians, Australia, and The Czech are all top 15 teams, which would leave space for just 1 more if Brazil and US each have 5. Are Claes/Sponcil, Larsen/Stockman, and Barbara/Fernanda really better than every European team outside of the Czech? Granted, some of the issues for the European nations are partnering based, but I think if correctly aligned and healthy, Germany has 2 top 15 teams, the Swiss have 1 (the small from Swiss 1 + Joana), and the Dutch have at least one. I’m wondering if we’re overestimating the US 4 and 5 teams based off of early success and good draws, there are still a ton of talented European players who have won golds but currently aren’t in their best shape/partnerships. I meant 5 Olympic qualifiers each, which I think means 24. Top 15, I think you are right that if Europe sorts out its issues they have a decent number of teams in there. I think in that scenario, Brazil probably still has 5, but we would likely have 3. Germany's top 2 and maybe 3 and 4 -if their teams sort out - are better than Sponcil/Claes and Starsen, as are Joanna if she ever makes a move and maybe Anouk and someone if she goes back to blocking. Maybe 1 Dutch team also. I hadnt thought of it that way, but you are absolutely right that Europe is basically a big partnership mess now and I would say the top 7-8 Euro players, excepting the Czechs, are with sub-optimal partners The Germans are a hot mess right now. But hopefully they don’t catch fire until after World Champs. Agreed that it’ll be nice to see USA on the podium in World Champs. |
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Post by dunninla3 on May 29, 2019 15:53:43 GMT -5
the European teams don't have the same issues as the US and Brazil in narrowing 3-4 teams down to 2.
They can still use all of 2019 to experiment with partnerships, decide by Jan. 2020, and then let the teams peak for the Olympics.
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Post by JB Southpaw on Jun 3, 2019 8:10:44 GMT -5
Well, KWJ/Sweat take a big jump in AVG. Only positive move this week.
Hughes/Summer move into 3rd passing Flint/Day. Sponcil/Claes just 20pts behing Flint/Day too.
As of June 3:
Team - Nb. - Points - AVG - AVG LAST WEEK - AVG change
Walsh Jennings/Sweat - 9 - 4,460 - 496 - 443 - 53
Klineman/Ross - 6 - 3,720 - 620 - 648 - (28)
Hughes/Summer - 6 - 2,800 - 467 - 500 - (33)
Day/Flint - 6 - 2,500 - 417 - 436 - (19)
Sponcil/Claes - 5 - 2,480 - 496 - 533 - (37)
Larsen/Stockman - 5 - 2,000 - 400 - 400 - -
Howard/Reeves - 5 - 1400 - 280 - 280 - -
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Post by tamz on Jul 6, 2019 10:18:33 GMT -5
JB SouthpawUpdate after World Champs? Wanna see how the teams standings are after WC.
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Post by JB Southpaw on Jul 6, 2019 10:56:49 GMT -5
JB SouthpawUpdate after World Champs? Wanna see how the teams standings are after WC. Yeah, when they put it up on Monday, I'll update both. |
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Post by tamz on Jul 6, 2019 10:59:52 GMT -5
Everyone’s average should go up a bit because this is double the points as a 4*.
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Post by JB Southpaw on Jul 8, 2019 12:40:39 GMT -5
As of July 8th:
Not surprising, A-Team jumps KWJ/BS
KWJ/BS 2 tournaments away from being the leader in the clubhouse.
Sponcil/claes move into 2nd in AVG per tournament. AND they are in the Q at Gstaad, don't have to CQ it.
A-Team can clinch their place this month. 5*Gstaad, 4*Espinho, 4*Tokyo and 5*Vienna.
If they can avg 5ths, there aren't enough big tournaments next year to catch them.
I could see them drop Espinho if they medal this week.
Hughes/Summer, Larsen/Stockman need to have a great Gstaad to stay in the race, they are really close to being too far out.
Claes/Sponcil are probably in that boat too.
Not sure who is playing the best out of the 3 right now.
Team . Tournys - Points - AVG
Klineman/Ross - 8 - 5,640 - 705
Walsh Jennings/Sweat - 10 - 5,100 - 510
Hughes/Summer - 8 - 4,080 - 510
Sponcil/Claes - 7 - 3,680 - 526
Larsen/Stockman - 7 - 3,360 - 480
Day/Flint - 6 - 2,500 - 417
Howard/Reeves - 5 - 1,400 - 280
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Post by tamz on Jul 8, 2019 12:45:36 GMT -5
2S out of Gstaad. They lost in the first CQ match against Day/Flint, who lost in the second CQ match against Sponcil/Claes.
And I don’t think ATeam will drop Esphino. MHP/SP will be in Canada instead playing a 3*, so they should go to Esphino.
If anything, I think they’ll drop Moscow and go to AVP MBO instead. That’ll leave a tough choice for the 3rd team an beyond which one to go to.
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Post by ajm on Jul 8, 2019 13:21:41 GMT -5
I would also be surprised if ATeam drops Espinho unless one of them is injured. They’re already in Europe and no AVP that weekend.
Do we even know yet what the FIVB schedule is for next year? WTF has already been changed to 5 Star points. I’d expect at least six 4 Stars and perhaps another 5 Star or two before the qualification period ends (Ft Lauderdale?). Unless the players have already been told otherwise it seems too early to say the race is over.
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Post by JB Southpaw on Jul 8, 2019 13:44:19 GMT -5
I would also be surprised if ATeam drops Espinho unless one of them is injured. They’re already in Europe and no AVP that weekend. Do we even know yet what the FIVB schedule is for next year? WTF has already been changed to 5 Star points. I’d expect at least six 4 Stars and perhaps another 5 Star or two before the qualification period ends (Ft Lauderdale?). Unless the players have already been told otherwise it seems too early to say the race is over. I should have said, my opinion. If they add all those tournaments that early, it would be kind of BS. They haven't had that many, that early for a while. I'd expect four 4 * and one 5 star. |
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Post by ajm on Jul 8, 2019 16:20:34 GMT -5
I would also be surprised if ATeam drops Espinho unless one of them is injured. They’re already in Europe and no AVP that weekend. Do we even know yet what the FIVB schedule is for next year? WTF has already been changed to 5 Star points. I’d expect at least six 4 Stars and perhaps another 5 Star or two before the qualification period ends (Ft Lauderdale?). Unless the players have already been told otherwise it seems too early to say the race is over. I should have said, my opinion. If they add all those tournaments that early, it would be kind of BS. They haven't had that many, that early for a while. I'd expect four 4 * and one 5 star. In the 2018-2019 season they had eight 4 Stars before June 30: Yangzhou, Las Vegas, The Hague, Xiamen, Itapema, Jinjiang, Ostrava, Warsaw. So probably no Vegas this fall, but already Chetumal in November has been upgraded from a 3 Star to a 4 Star. I figured six 4 Stars would be a conservative estimate. Given that it is an Olympic year I wouldn’t be surprised if there were more. |
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Post by tamz on Jul 8, 2019 16:30:21 GMT -5
If Ft. Lauderdale does not happen next year, that means there are still three 5* events this year — Gstaad, Vienna, and Rome World Tour Finals. That’s a lot of points in the bank and a lot of matches to be played.
But at the end of the day, according to Phil and Tri, no one really wants to go to Moscow, especially if it’s on the same weekend at AVP MBO. The prize money for 1st place in fact is even more at AVP than at Moscow 4*. I think ATeam will skip Moscow and try to defend their MBO title instead. Then skipping will open one MD spot for a team. So if KWJ/BS goes (and there’s no reason why they shouldn’t go), then the other 2 MD spots will probably be 2S and Slaes. BUT, if Fendrick/Hochevar are awarded the WC, then only 1 spot remains in the MD. I have a feeling Day/Flint will choose to stay stateside if they have to battle in CQ.
I feel bad for Emily and Betsi. They basically flew all the way to Switzerland to play two matches, went 1-1 and now are packing their bags home because they’re going to be in Canada next week.
Had ATeam won World Champs, it would’ve been super interesting. Instead of fighting for 2 spots, only one remained...
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Post by tamz on Jul 8, 2019 16:32:15 GMT -5
I should have said, my opinion. If they add all those tournaments that early, it would be kind of BS. They haven't had that many, that early for a while. I'd expect four 4 * and one 5 star. In the 2018-2019 season they had eight 4 Stars before June 30: Yangzhou, Las Vegas, The Hague, Xiamen, Itapema, Jinjiang, Ostrava, Warsaw. So probably no Vegas this fall, but already Chetumal in November has been upgraded from a 3 Star to a 4 Star. I figured six 4 Stars would be a conservative estimate. Given that it is an Olympic year I wouldn’t be surprised if there were more. If that’s the case, then no offseason this year for many of the teams? I’m sure ATeam cannot just sit back and relax and watch other teams play right? They’ll have to participate to keep with the points and try to stay ahead. |
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Post by dunninla3 on Jul 8, 2019 17:07:45 GMT -5
Regarding tournaments left for FIVB Olympic qualification, using rankings:
5* Gstaad
4* Espinho
4* Tokyo
5* Vienna
4* Moscow
5* World Tour Finals, Rome
4* Chetumal
2020, if 2019 pattern is followed, up through June 14 cutoff date:
4* The Hague
4* Xiamen
4* Itapema
4* Jinjiang
4* Ostrava
And don't forget winning a 3* is 300 points. If two teams are within a couple of points of each other, winning a 3* could still make the difference.
3* Sydney and 3* Kuala Lampur are in between The Hague and Xiamen. If it is a super tight race for #2 USA Olympic qualifier, I don't know how you risk allowing a competitor to possibly get 300 points without entering to fight it out.
not clear if Warsaw will fit into the deadline...
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Post by rainbowcard on Jul 8, 2019 17:27:20 GMT -5
Would also love to see Claes and Sponcil go to the Olympics with ATeam - even though I’m a big fan of Kerri, always will be, she’s not going to get farther with Brooke, unfortunately. I also noticed Kerri took off the #tokyo2020 hashtag from her instagram bio first time in a long time I’ve not seen it there!
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