Bracketology (11/19)

[Deleted]

Nov 24, 2019 14:41:03 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Nov 24, 2019 14:34:52 GMT -5 @wfbvbfan said:

Right now Milwaukee is #57 and N. KY is #62 in the RPI. Historically, the mythical "RPI Cut-Off Line" has been in the mid to upper 40s.

I don't have Milwaukee's accurate RPI numbers -- but they are somewhere in the 40's right now (like, according to matches played up until RIGHT NOW)

Northern Kentucky is #49 in RPI right now.

Where would you find up to date RPI rankings?  The ones I quoted were from 11/18 and posted on the NCAA site.  Still on that site, UWM was #57.  Since then the only match they have played was Green Bay, which they won.  Seems like a big jump to jump 10 or more spots based on a single match.

[n00b]

Nov 24, 2019 15:11:24 GMT -5 @wfbvbfan said:

Nov 24, 2019 14:41:03 GMT -5 trojansc said:

I don't have Milwaukee's accurate RPI numbers -- but they are somewhere in the 40's right now (like, according to matches played up until RIGHT NOW)

Northern Kentucky is #49 in RPI right now.

Where would you find up to date RPI rankings?  The ones I quoted were from 11/18 and posted on the NCAA site.  Still on that site, UWM was #57.  Since then the only match they have played was Green Bay, which they won.  Seems like a big jump to jump 10 or more spots based on a single match.

Unofficial, but usually very accurate:

ncaastats.figstats.net/volleyball-rpi.cgi

[trojansc]

Nov 24, 2019 15:11:24 GMT -5 @wfbvbfan said:

Nov 24, 2019 14:41:03 GMT -5 trojansc said:

I don't have Milwaukee's accurate RPI numbers -- but they are somewhere in the 40's right now (like, according to matches played up until RIGHT NOW)

Northern Kentucky is #49 in RPI right now.

Where would you find up to date RPI rankings?  The ones I quoted were from 11/18 and posted on the NCAA site.  Still on that site, UWM was #57.  Since then the only match they have played was Green Bay, which they won.  Seems like a big jump to jump 10 or more spots based on a single match.

college.figstats.net/volleyball-rpi.cgi

There are some matches missing from previous days: Importantly, SMU at UCF, Milwaukee vs. Green Bay. Milwaukee will make a big push.

You have to understand how RPI works to understand why. Milwaukee's opponents record, which is 50% of RPI calculation, is 405-481 prior to the Green Bay match. That's pretty significantly below 50% and one of the worst strength of schedules for Top 100 teams (it's in the 200s). Now, look at Northern Kentucky. Northern Kentucky's opponents record 522-355. That's good for a T25 strength of schedule in the nation.

So what does this mean? Northern Kentucky and Milwaukee are both going to get a great push in RPI if they beat a team like Green Bay (who is 21-8). BUT -- it means that Milwaukee is going to improve their RPI ranking significantly more than Northern Kentucky. Because in 50% of the formula - Milwaukee is increasing it's opponents win % much more than Northern Kentucky is.

[Deleted]

Nov 24, 2019 15:15:56 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Nov 24, 2019 15:11:24 GMT -5 @wfbvbfan said:

Where would you find up to date RPI rankings?  The ones I quoted were from 11/18 and posted on the NCAA site.  Still on that site, UWM was #57.  Since then the only match they have played was Green Bay, which they won.  Seems like a big jump to jump 10 or more spots based on a single match.

college.figstats.net/volleyball-rpi.cgi

There are some matches missing from previous days: Importantly, SMU at UCF, Milwaukee vs. Green Bay. Milwaukee will make a big push.

You have to understand how RPI works to understand why. Milwaukee's opponents record, which is 50% of RPI calculation, is 405-481 prior to the Green Bay match. That's pretty significantly below 50% and one of the worst strength of schedules for Top 100 teams (it's in the 200s). Now, look at Northern Kentucky. Northern Kentucky's opponents record 522-355. That's good for a T25 strength of schedule in the nation.

So what does this mean? Northern Kentucky and Milwaukee are both going to get a great push in RPI if they beat a team like Green Bay (who is 21-8). BUT -- it means that Milwaukee is going to improve their RPI ranking significantly more than Northern Kentucky. Because in 50% of the formula - Milwaukee is increasing it's opponents win % much more than Northern Kentucky is.

I get the increase from the opponents W/L record.  But this late in the season, when the opponents record already has close to 900 matches taken into account, adding one more opponents W/L into the calculation does not seem to move the needle much.  In this case with UWM, adding Green bay into their opponents W/L changes that W/L percentage from 0.45711 to 0.46577, a change of 0.00846.  I could see that bumping them up a couple spots, but not around 10.

FWIW - this site you gave me has UWM currently at 56.

[trojansc]

Nov 24, 2019 15:36:24 GMT -5 @wfbvbfan said:

Nov 24, 2019 15:15:56 GMT -5 trojansc said:

college.figstats.net/volleyball-rpi.cgi

There are some matches missing from previous days: Importantly, SMU at UCF, Milwaukee vs. Green Bay. Milwaukee will make a big push.

You have to understand how RPI works to understand why. Milwaukee's opponents record, which is 50% of RPI calculation, is 405-481 prior to the Green Bay match. That's pretty significantly below 50% and one of the worst strength of schedules for Top 100 teams (it's in the 200s). Now, look at Northern Kentucky. Northern Kentucky's opponents record 522-355. That's good for a T25 strength of schedule in the nation.

So what does this mean? Northern Kentucky and Milwaukee are both going to get a great push in RPI if they beat a team like Green Bay (who is 21-8). BUT -- it means that Milwaukee is going to improve their RPI ranking significantly more than Northern Kentucky. Because in 50% of the formula - Milwaukee is increasing it's opponents win % much more than Northern Kentucky is.

I get the increase from the opponents W/L record.  But this late in the season, when the opponents record already has close to 900 matches taken into account, adding one more opponents W/L into the calculation does not seem to move the needle much.  In this case with UWM, adding Green bay into their opponents W/L changes that W/L percentage from 0.45711 to 0.46577, a change of 0.00846.  I could see that bumping them up a couple spots, but not around 10.

FWIW - this site you gave me has UWM currently at 56.

Yes, as I told you, that site has not accounted for Milwaukee's win yesterday against Green Bay. They will also get a slight increase in their ranking (though much more slightly) in the 25% of the formula - your own W/L %.

Also -- you need to look at the actual RPI values. Milwaukee is .5801. Northern Kentucky, at 49 is .5880. That difference is less than the difference you calculated for Milwaukee's adjustment in strength of schedule. Now you can see how adding that change of JUST opponents record will bump up Milwaukee's RPI alone ahead of Northern Kentucky, which is about 7 spots ahead. 

[trollhunter]

Here is bluepenquin RPI Futures for this scenario from a day ago:

Northern Kentucky beats Milwaukee:

44. Green Bay
45. Wright State
47. Northern Kentucky
53. Milwaukee

Currently Milwaukee would be higher in RPI (they have not actually lost yet).

Obviously other teams are also moving around in that RPI area too.

I'm guessing my initial prediction of 3 Horizon teams will hold, but Milwaukee will be an interesting case.

Read more: volleytalk.proboards.com/user/12138/recent#ixzz66EIpPYLm

[Deleted]

Nov 24, 2019 15:41:33 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Nov 24, 2019 15:36:24 GMT -5 @wfbvbfan said:

I get the increase from the opponents W/L record.  But this late in the season, when the opponents record already has close to 900 matches taken into account, adding one more opponents W/L into the calculation does not seem to move the needle much.  In this case with UWM, adding Green bay into their opponents W/L changes that W/L percentage from 0.45711 to 0.46577, a change of 0.00846.  I could see that bumping them up a couple spots, but not around 10.

FWIW - this site you gave me has UWM currently at 56.

Yes, as I told you, that site has not accounted for Milwaukee's win yesterday against Green Bay. They will also get a slight increase in their ranking (though much more slightly) in the 25% of the formula - your own W/L %.

Also -- you need to look at the actual RPI values. Milwaukee is .5801. Northern Kentucky, at 49 is .5880. That difference is less than the difference you calculated for Milwaukee's adjustment in strength of schedule. Now you can see how adding that change of JUST opponents record will bump up Milwaukee's RPI alone ahead of Northern Kentucky, which is about 7 spots ahead. 

My calculation of 0.00846 was straight Opponent W/L.  From what I understand, this accounts for 50% of the total RPI score, so UWMs total RPI would go up by 1/2 of this or about 0.0041.  Or am I looking at this wrong?

[trojansc]

Nov 24, 2019 15:47:38 GMT -5 @wfbvbfan said:

Nov 24, 2019 15:41:33 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Yes, as I told you, that site has not accounted for Milwaukee's win yesterday against Green Bay. They will also get a slight increase in their ranking (though much more slightly) in the 25% of the formula - your own W/L %.

Also -- you need to look at the actual RPI values. Milwaukee is .5801. Northern Kentucky, at 49 is .5880. That difference is less than the difference you calculated for Milwaukee's adjustment in strength of schedule. Now you can see how adding that change of JUST opponents record will bump up Milwaukee's RPI alone ahead of Northern Kentucky, which is about 7 spots ahead. 

My calculation of 0.00846 was straight Opponent W/L.  From what I understand, this accounts for 50% of the total RPI score, so UWMs total RPI would go up by 1/2 of this or about 0.0041.  Or am I looking at this wrong?

You are right -- I thought you had already divided that by 2. But you've got the idea now.

But Milwaukee just lost to Northern Kentucky now. So now they are back down somewhere in the low 50's. Once figstats updates their site with both results - you should see the dust settle.

Also (depending on unmodified RPI) Milwaukee also gets a bonus for beating Green Bay. You get bonuses for 1-25 and 26-50 Victories.

[Deleted]

Got it. Still not a big fan of the RPI. I compare it to companies that try to run their business by looking at reports, and never really pay attention to all of the aspects that don't fit anywhere in an Excel spreadsheet.

[trollhunter]

Nov 24, 2019 15:56:34 GMT -5 @wfbvbfan said:

Got it. Still not a big fan of the RPI. I compare it to companies that try to run their business by looking at reports, and never really pay attention to all of the aspects that don't fit anywhere in an Excel spreadsheet.

The NCAA committee also looks at W/L, SOS, H2H, CommonOpponents and SignificantWinsLosses for each team as well as RPI.

RPI is just the starting point and easiest single thing for a casual fan to look at since it incorporates all of the items above to varying degrees.

[trojansc]

And as if this couldn't get tougher ----

Washington State is about to get swept by the Arizonas. Great.

[midnightblue]

Nov 24, 2019 16:00:55 GMT -5 trojansc said:

And as if this couldn't get tougher ----

Washington State is about to get swept by the Arizonas. Great.

Ugh I know.

[bprtbone]

Dayton wins the A10 tourney. Does VCU have a chance on the bubble?

[txnut]

trojansc do you think WKU now gets a Top 16? I know there are still lots of moving parts especially for those last few host slots.

[txnut]

Nov 24, 2019 13:55:53 GMT -5 trojansc said:

I have absolutely no idea what we are going to do with the loser of Northern Kentucky and Milwaukee.

Would we really give FOUR bids to the Horizon?

Milwaukee potentially has 5 Top 50 wins ............. all in the 40s. Northern Kentucky beat Cincinnati, a T25 win in the non-conference.

They could just throw all of them out like they with the Kansas schools and the Big 12 last year....