Bracketology (11/19)

[trojansc]

2019 Bracketology (11/19)

NCAA Selection Show - Sunday Dec. 1st, 2018 at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPNU

Most Conference Tournaments are being played this week.
This is a light edition - AQ's will be mostly determined by the end of this week.
Next Update: Mon 11/25

Not enough time this week to babble on -- so feel free to ask questions to why a team is where, or where their ceiling may be, or where likely teams are to end up being sent to if they are not seeded. Putting together a bracket is much easier when most of the AQ's are determined by the end of this week.

16 Projected NCAA Tournament Seeds

1 Baylor - 16 Creighton
8 Nebraska - 9 Kentucky

4 Pittsburgh - 13 Florida
5 Wisconsin - 12 Utah

3 Stanford - 14 Penn State
6 Minnesota - 11 Marquette

2 Texas - 15 Rice
7 Washington - 10 Hawaii

64 Projected NCAA-Tournament Teams, listed by Conference

Projected Champion listed first || separated by at large teams

teams with a * have clinched their conference AQ/Championship

Atlantic 10 - Virginia Commonwealth
AAC - Cincinnati  || At-Large: UCF, Southern Methodist
ACC - Pittsburgh*  || At-Large: Louisville, Notre Dame, Florida State 
America East - Albany 
Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast
Big East - Marquette  || At-Large: Creighton
Big Ten - Wisconsin   || At-Large: Minnesota, Nebraska, Penn State, Purdue, Michigan, Illinois, Ohio State
Big 12 - Texas || At-Large: Baylor, Oklahoma, Iowa State
Big Sky - Northern Colorado
Big South - Winthrop
Big West - Hawaii || At-Large: UCSB, Cal Poly
Colonial - Towson
Conference USA - Western Kentucky || At-Large: Rice
Horizon - Green Bay || At-Large: Wright State
Ivy League - Princeton
Metro Atlantic - Fairfield
Mid-American - Miami(OH)
Mid-Eastern - North Carolina A&T
Missouri Valley - Northern Iowa
Mountain West - Colorado State*
Northeast - Robert Morris
Ohio Valley- Jacksonville State
Pacific-12- Stanford || At-Large: Washington, Utah, Southern California, UCLA, California, Washington State
Patriot - Colgate
Southeastern - Kentucky || At-Large: Florida, Texas A&M, Missouri, Georgia
Southland - Stephen F. Austin
Southern - Samford
Summit - South Dakota
Sun Belt - Texas State
Southwestern - Alabama A&M
Western Athletic- New Mexico State

West Coast - San Diego  || At-Large: BYU, Pepperdine

Four before the last 4 in: Wright State, Michigan, California, Washington State
Last 4 in: Pepperdine, Southern Methodist, Illinois, Ohio State
First 4 out: Coastal Carolina, Dayton, Arizona State, South Carolina

Next 4 out: North Carolina, Villanova, James Madison, Milwaukee

[huskerrob]

how do you forecast Wisconsin over Nebraska based on head to head, but then fail to use head to head to forecast Creighton over Marquette, which you seem to suggest overall record matters more?

[trojansc]

Nov 19, 2019 6:08:51 GMT -5 huskerrob said:

how do you forecast Wisconsin over Nebraska based on head to head, but then fail to use head to head to forecast Creighton over Marquette, which you seem to suggest overall record matters more?

Wisconsin is over Nebraska in pretty much all criteria at this point. I favor Marquette at this point, but it's a crapshoot however you look at it. Creighton and Marquette will play each other once more, and quite possibly twice as they are likely to meet in the Big East Championship. Creighton was also swept by Villanova while Marquette only lost to Creighton.

[Sbilo]

Would be nice to have Penn State back again at Maples and another Big 10 team in Minnesota..

That regional is going to be epic.

[Cruz'n]

trojansc
I was wondering about Georgia Tech.
IMO they have a good chance to win out.
Currently their RPI is 64, but there is not a lot of separation from many teams above them.
Should they win out, do they stand any chance of sufficiently improving their RPI to leapfrog
enough teams to make the tourney?

[NittanyLions]

Nov 19, 2019 6:33:30 GMT -5 Sbilo said:

Would be nice to have Penn State back again at Maples and another Big 10 team in Minnesota..

That regional is going to be epic.

No, it would not be nice.  LOL!

[dd2000]

I sure hope Rasmussen is back for Hawaii before a Washington second match up this year.

[bluemagic]

The fact that you took the time to do even this is great. Thank you!

[tomclen]

Based on TrojanSC's bracket, how would you rank the home-court advantage of the regional hosts:


1. Texas. Gregory is murder. Hawaii will be used to bigger crowds, but not a crowd that's right on top of the court. UW has mid-range crowds, but again, not like Gregory. And Rice, well.
BONUS: Opposing teams will be distracted by the Austin hip-factor, even if the Armadillo is long gone.

2. Baylor. Yeah, they typically don't pack the place. And it's a 10k seat arena. But I'd guess there will be record setting attendance for a regional.
BONUS: All the visiting teams have to actually spend a night in Waco.

3. Stanford. Sure, they have some of the biggest crowds in the PAC, but nothing to compare to the top B1G schools. And their crowds tend to be, um, polite. But there is a certain unmistakable mystique about Maples.
BONUS: That friggin' Cardinal Tree.

4. Pitt. Pitt has averaged 1,068 fans per match, which just barely cracks the top 50. Florida, Wisconsin and Utah won't notice the fans. Plus Pitt would have the incredible pressure of needing to win two very tough matches so that they can play in their home-town Final Four.
BONUS: Visiting teams will likely eat at the Dirty O.

[uncommitted]

Nov 19, 2019 6:15:06 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Nov 19, 2019 6:08:51 GMT -5 huskerrob said:

how do you forecast Wisconsin over Nebraska based on head to head, but then fail to use head to head to forecast Creighton over Marquette, which you seem to suggest overall record matters more?

Wisconsin is over Nebraska in pretty much all criteria at this point. I favor Marquette at this point, but it's a crapshoot however you look at it. Creighton and Marquette will play each other once more, and quite possibly twice as they are likely to meet in the Big East Championship. Creighton was also swept by Villanova while Marquette only lost to Creighton.

Creighton is also now down an important player. Marquette should win the rematch and the Big East tourney (which is held at Marquette this year).

[Wiswell]

I am very supportive of Pitt. But not having the Big Ten champion (whoever it might be) as a seed would be a travesty. Also Baylor as 1 and TX as 2 when TX beat them. OTOH, I don't get the righteous indignation when teams aren't seeded as high as they think they should be. If they think they are so great they should win anyway!

BTW, I am not arguing with the bracketology, because what you post is what you think the committee will do (and you are right literally 98% of time), but with the committee.

Also, I think Pitt was get 4-5k fans in a regional, despite what they average in the regular season.

Fortunately for Illinois they should win out. Their schedule was front loaded with the top Big Ten teams.

[BeachbytheBay]

Nov 19, 2019 8:39:41 GMT -5 tomclen said:

Based on TrojanSC's bracket, how would you rank the home-court advantage of the regional hosts:


1. Texas. Gregory is murder. Hawaii will be used to bigger crowds, but not a crowd that's right on top of the court. UW has mid-range crowds, but again, not like Gregory. And Rice, well. BONUS: Opposing teams will be distracted by the Austin hip-factor, even if the Armadillo is long gone.

2. Baylor. Yeah, they typically don't pack the place. And it's a 10k seat arena. But I'd guess there will be record setting attendance for a regional. BONUS: All the visiting teams have to actually spend a night in Waco.

3. Stanford. Sure, they have some of the biggest crowds in the PAC, but nothing to compare to the top B1G schools. And their crowds tend to be, um, polite. But there is a certain unmistakable mystique about Maples. BONUS: That friggin' Cardinal Tree.

4. Pitt. Pitt has averaged 1,068 fans per match, which just barely cracks the top 50. Florida, Wisconsin and Utah won't notice the fans. Plus Pitt would have the incredible pressure of needing to win two very tough matches so that they can play in their home-town Final Four. BONUS: Visiting teams will likely eat at the Dirty O.

Hawaii has played in front of 3000 at the most claustrophobic BW gym , Mott Gym at cal poly 3 straight years

Of course they ve lost 3 straight years there

[Deleted]

Is Hawaii really high up enough in the rpi and have a good enough record for a 10 seed? The Washington and San Diego wins are looking pretty good.

[cindra]

Nov 19, 2019 7:58:27 GMT -5 Cruz'n said:

trojansc
I was wondering about Georgia Tech.
IMO they have a good chance to win out.
Currently their RPI is 64, but there is not a lot of separation from many teams above them.
Should they win out, do they stand any chance of sufficiently improving their RPI to leapfrog
enough teams to make the tourney?

I doubt it. They have to beat Notre Dame, and their other 2 games are sub 125 RPI. They need losses ahead of them.

[bluepenquin]

Nov 19, 2019 6:08:51 GMT -5 huskerrob said:

how do you forecast Wisconsin over Nebraska based on head to head, but then fail to use head to head to forecast Creighton over Marquette, which you seem to suggest overall record matters more?

Because H2H is one of many criteria's used by the committee and isn't the most important one.  And no, Overall record doesn't matter more and is pretty far down on the list.