Bracketology (11/19)

[horns1]

Nov 19, 2019 14:23:46 GMT -5 hammer said:

Here are the B1G matches coming up that I expect could rearrange the deck on the seeds:

1. Neb @ Minny, Nov 20
2. Neb @ Wisky, Nov 24
3. Wisky @ PSU, Nov 29
4. Minny @ PSU, Nov 30

And likewise, in the Pac-12, these might cause some changes:

1. Stanford @ Utah, Nov 22
2. Stanford @ WSU, Nov 26
3. WSU @ WU, Nov 30

Is it unusual that the Nebraska matches at UM and UW are not on consecutive days like most road swings?  Guessing it's a TV thing; but, seems like most teams have had to play at UM and UW on consecutive days, or with only one day separation.

[ugopher]

Nov 19, 2019 14:34:06 GMT -5 horns1 said:

Nov 19, 2019 14:23:46 GMT -5 hammer said:

Here are the B1G matches coming up that I expect could rearrange the deck on the seeds:

1. Neb @ Minny, Nov 20
2. Neb @ Wisky, Nov 24
3. Wisky @ PSU, Nov 29
4. Minny @ PSU, Nov 30

And likewise, in the Pac-12, these might cause some changes:

1. Stanford @ Utah, Nov 22
2. Stanford @ WSU, Nov 26
3. WSU @ WU, Nov 30

Is it unusual that the Nebraska matches at UM and UW are not on consecutive days like most road swings?  Guessing it's a TV thing; but, seems like most teams have had to play at UM and UW on consecutive days, or with only one day separation.

On Sunday because WI football plays at home on Saturday.

And the MN/Neb match is on Friday, November 22. Had to double check because you never know!

[permagrin]

The Nebraska/Minnesota game is scheduled for nov 22 friday

[ugopher]

Nov 19, 2019 10:19:21 GMT -5 Kingsley said:

I’d still like to believe that South Dakota, even at 27-1 and 38 in RPI, has to get the Summit auto-bid to make the tournament.

Auto bid goes to the tourney champion.

A lot of bubble teams will be rooting for South Dakota in the Summit League tournament. Should they lose, it would be hard for the tourney not to take them in addition to the tourney winner.

However, I believe it has happened before where a 1 or 2 loss team did not win their tournament and missed out of the NCAA tournament.

[Kingsley]

Nov 19, 2019 14:44:24 GMT -5 ugopher said:

Nov 19, 2019 10:19:21 GMT -5 Kingsley said:

I’d still like to believe that South Dakota, even at 27-1 and 38 in RPI, has to get the Summit auto-bid to make the tournament.

Auto bid goes to the tourney champion.

A lot of bubble teams will be rooting for South Dakota in the Summit League tournament. Should they lose, it would be hard for the tourney not to take them in addition to the tourney winner.

However, I believe it has happened before where a 1 or 2 loss team did not win their tournament and missed out of the NCAA tournament.

Yeah, my point was that I don’t feel like South Dakota has a resume worthy of an at-large bid in the NCAA tournament should they not win the Summit tournament. People will disagree with me on that, for sure. Say they lose in the Summit League tournament and finish about 40th in RPI. Their best win is RPI 69. There’s a lot of bubble teams just below them that can boast more quality wins, including some top 25 wins in a few cases.

Of course, if you’re the Yotes, just win the Summit League to render my words pointless

[kiyoat]

Nov 19, 2019 14:56:55 GMT -5 Kingsley said:

Nov 19, 2019 14:44:24 GMT -5 ugopher said:

Yeah, my point was that I don’t feel like South Dakota has a resume worthy of an at-large bid in the NCAA tournament should they not win the Summit tournament. People will disagree with me on that, for sure. Say they lose in the Summit League tournament and finish about 40th in RPI. Their best win is RPI 69. There’s a lot of bubble teams just below them that can boast more quality wins, including some top 25 wins in a few cases.

Of course, if you’re the Yotes, just win the Summit League to render my words pointless

Not to be rude, but what you feel probably doesn't matter much to the selection committee.  Correct me if I am wrong, but the committee has shown a propensity to lean on the RPI above other factors when it is high enough.  Like above #40 or so?  I believe Denver was even as low as #50 last year when they got an at-large bid out of the Summit.  Their schedule was weaker last year than South Dakota's is this year.

[brybast]

Nov 19, 2019 9:11:09 GMT -5 Wiswell said:

I am very supportive of Pitt. But not having the Big Ten champion (whoever it might be) as a seed would be a travesty. Also Baylor as 1 and TX as 2 when TX beat them. OTOH, I don't get the righteous indignation when teams aren't seeded as high as they think they should be. If they think they are so great they should win anyway!

I don't get this rationale at all. Each team is individually evaluated. It's not like the UN Security Council where certain countries are guaranteed a permanent seat.

[Steve vb]

Nov 19, 2019 15:23:32 GMT -5 kiyoat said:

Nov 19, 2019 14:56:55 GMT -5 Kingsley said:

Yeah, my point was that I don’t feel like South Dakota has a resume worthy of an at-large bid in the NCAA tournament should they not win the Summit tournament. People will disagree with me on that, for sure. Say they lose in the Summit League tournament and finish about 40th in RPI. Their best win is RPI 69. There’s a lot of bubble teams just below them that can boast more quality wins, including some top 25 wins in a few cases.

Of course, if you’re the Yotes, just win the Summit League to render my words pointless

Not to be rude, but what you feel probably doesn't matter much to the selection committee.  Correct me if I am wrong, but the committee has shown a propensity to lean on the RPI above other factors when it is high enough.  Like above #40 or so?  I believe Denver was even as low as #50 last year when they got an at-large bid out of the Summit.  Their schedule was weaker last year than South Dakota's is this year.

I think that your argument is a good reminder for why having end of the season conference tournaments to determine who goes to the NCAA tournament is a bad system.  After going undefeated in the conference, it would be ridiculous for South Dakota to not represent the Summit League in this year's NCAA tournament.  

[trojansc]

Nov 19, 2019 7:58:27 GMT -5 Cruz'n said:

trojansc
I was wondering about Georgia Tech.
IMO they have a good chance to win out.
Currently their RPI is 64, but there is not a lot of separation from many teams above them.
Should they win out, do they stand any chance of sufficiently improving their RPI to leapfrog
enough teams to make the tourney?

Even if they win out I just don't see how they could get in.. Their remaining opponents are (39-36) so they aren't getting any push in RPI points in strength-of-schedule. Winning those three won't be enough to put their RPI good enough to get in, and they have no shot at a T25 win.

I think they will also have some AQ teams potentially jump them (Colgate vs. American is a good example) that could push their RPI even further away from other bubble teams.

[brybast]

Nov 19, 2019 8:57:52 GMT -5 uncommitted said:

Nov 19, 2019 6:15:06 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Wisconsin is over Nebraska in pretty much all criteria at this point. I favor Marquette at this point, but it's a crapshoot however you look at it. Creighton and Marquette will play each other once more, and quite possibly twice as they are likely to meet in the Big East Championship. Creighton was also swept by Villanova while Marquette only lost to Creighton.

Creighton is also now down an important player. Marquette should win the rematch and the Big East tourney (which is held at Marquette this year).

Sorry, I haven't been paying attention to them lately -- who did Creighton lose?

[Kingsley]

Nov 19, 2019 15:23:32 GMT -5 kiyoat said:

Nov 19, 2019 14:56:55 GMT -5 Kingsley said:

Yeah, my point was that I don’t feel like South Dakota has a resume worthy of an at-large bid in the NCAA tournament should they not win the Summit tournament. People will disagree with me on that, for sure. Say they lose in the Summit League tournament and finish about 40th in RPI. Their best win is RPI 69. There’s a lot of bubble teams just below them that can boast more quality wins, including some top 25 wins in a few cases.

Of course, if you’re the Yotes, just win the Summit League to render my words pointless

Not to be rude, but what you feel probably doesn't matter much to the selection committee.  Correct me if I am wrong, but the committee has shown a propensity to lean on the RPI above other factors when it is high enough.  Like above #40 or so?  I believe Denver was even as low as #50 last year when they got an at-large bid out of the Summit.  Their schedule was weaker last year than South Dakota's is this year.

First of all, I never implied that my opinion meant anything to anyone. Chill out.

Denver got an at-large bid with an RPI of 40. You can view the nitty gritty here. They had a better win (43 SMC) than South Dakota has now (69 WYO). Of course, now we’re comparing two different years with two different sets of bubble teams and two different sets of auto-bids (never mind the H2H scenarios that surrounded SMC, Denver, and a bunch of other bubble teams).

I’ve expressed my opinion and it’s fine to disagree with it.

[trojansc]

Nov 19, 2019 9:11:09 GMT -5 Wiswell said:

I am very supportive of Pitt. But not having the Big Ten champion (whoever it might be) as a seed would be a travesty. Also Baylor as 1 and TX as 2 when TX beat them. OTOH, I don't get the righteous indignation when teams aren't seeded as high as they think they should be. If they think they are so great they should win anyway!

BTW, I am not arguing with the bracketology, because what you post is what you think the committee will do (and you are right literally 98% of time), but with the committee.

Also, I think Pitt was get 4-5k fans in a regional, despite what they average in the regular season.

Fortunately for Illinois they should win out. Their schedule was front loaded with the top Big Ten teams.

I don't think your opinion on the Big Ten Champion is wrong - because I think the committee has some biases when it comes to certain things. The problem is the committee changes every year.

Also, Baylor and Texas play again tomorrow - and it's at home for Baylor in Waco. These predictions take into account the remaining schedule, especially so for the at-large teams. I can't assume Baylor's going to beat Texas or Washington's going to beat Washington State, but I can see that X team has 0 more opportunities for a big win, while Z team has 3 more. Z has more potential to improve, a wider range, while X is pretty stable, or is going to fall hard with an unexpected loss. As for Baylor - Texas, Baylor still has the better overall profile -- so I'm going with them. If they lose to Texas this time around, they flip-flop.

[trojansc]

Nov 19, 2019 9:19:14 GMT -5 @madden54 said:

Is Hawaii really high up enough in the rpi and have a good enough record for a 10 seed? The Washington and San Diego wins are looking pretty good.

Remember wins are in terms of RPI - so Hawaii's wins over Missouri and UCLA are even better than San Diego. If somehow all four can finish T25 -- Hawaii will be 4-1 against T25 RPI - all out-of-conference. That would deserve a really good seed (imo). Hawaii should be in front of Florida - even despite the atrocious loss to UC Irvine at home!!

[bluepenquin]

Nov 19, 2019 15:32:38 GMT -5 Steve vb said:

Nov 19, 2019 15:23:32 GMT -5 kiyoat said:

Not to be rude, but what you feel probably doesn't matter much to the selection committee.  Correct me if I am wrong, but the committee has shown a propensity to lean on the RPI above other factors when it is high enough.  Like above #40 or so?  I believe Denver was even as low as #50 last year when they got an at-large bid out of the Summit.  Their schedule was weaker last year than South Dakota's is this year.

I think that your argument is a good reminder for why having end of the season conference tournaments to determine who goes to the NCAA tournament is a bad system.  After going undefeated in the conference, it would be ridiculous for South Dakota to not represent the Summit League in this year's NCAA tournament.  

This is probably a majority opinion, and I have a different one.  I like the conference tournament for most of these smaller conferences in determining the auto-bid.  It works better when the regular season champion gets to host.  In this case, Denver is the host and are the clearest threat to knocking off SD.

[HawaiiVB]

Nov 19, 2019 10:15:48 GMT -5 blue-footedbooby said:

After the Hawaii loss I called a rematch in Seattle. Even a broken cuckoo clock is correct twice a day.

It didn't happen yet.