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Post by Deleted on May 1, 2020 18:16:15 GMT -5
Regarding their pre-conference RPI; I just mean that it might be hard to get teams to commit to coming to Hawaii due to budget restrictions. I'm sure Nebraska aren't alone in canceling some of their out of state pre-conference matches. In terms of the BW strength of schedule, even with their improvement Fullerton only reach 208 in RPI. If we agree UCSB losing 4 of their 5 best players hurts them and Bakersfield and UC San Diego will lower the average RPI of the conference (at least for a while) instead of raising it, I'm not sure UH can exceed their seeding from 2019, even if they are a better team. I'm hopeful that Beach will be better but I'm not sure they'll be able to offset the net losses for the conference. Re: this season, obviously I can't speak on their possible RPI because we don't even know if there will be a season. I can say that I like Texas A&M a lot - excellent scheduling choice. When it comes to post-season, your numerical RPI and significant wins/losses pretty determine if you get a seed. Almost always, under #20-#21 is a death sentence, unless your name is Penn State and you make an unprecedented appearance as a seed despite being OUTSIDE of the Top 25 in RPI. Hawaii has never had a problem with picking up significant wins in the non-conference. Their issue is pretty much exclusively numerical RPI. Why? Because the rest of the Big West as a whole doesn't do a good enough job in RPI scheduling. Fullerton's actual RPI ranking is pretty much irrelevant - nobody ever cares about the bottom team's numerical ranking in the conference. They only care about Fullerton's Win % out-of conference. RPI math is weird and flawed. Cal Poly should schedule tougher than the rest of the conference because they are a proven team that can compete. I'd say ideally LBSU should schedule the next toughest as they could be next in line talent-wise. Then, UCSB and UCI should schedule a little more conservatively. Not complete patsies, but a mixture. They are big question marks for me, but could still be better than expected so should take a few risks on Top 50 teams. The rest of the Big West should schedule cakewalks and rack up the most wins as possible in the non-conference. That pretty much destroys THOSE schools chances at an at-large bid because their strength of schedule will be awful, but realistically they didn't/won't have a chance anyways. It's a sacrifice bottom of conference teams need to make until they up their level. The problem is the Big West is not geographically setup to have success, RPI-wise. It's complicated and not logistically realistic for many west-coast teams. Hard to explain, but my best example is a team like Temple. Temple didn't have to travel more than 2 hours in the non-conference, and racked up a Top-50 RPI strength of schedule without actually playing a Top 50 team. How is that even possible? Playing high win % teams of Eastern conferences. It's easy for them and pretty much not possible for West-coast mid majors. These rankings are what are most important. These are the cumulative winning %'s of all the non-conference matches, sorted by conference. Conference | 2019 | 2018 | PAC-12 | .740 | .784 | Big Ten | .706 | .830 | SEC | .695 | .687 | Big 12 | .653 | .683 | ACC | .613 | .635 | AAC | .612 | .634 | WCC | .579 | .645 | Big East | .562 | .496 | Big West | .552 | .567 | MWC | .508 | .555 | MVC | .456 | .627 |
Thanks for doing this. It'll definitely be helpful when the schedules are released in terms of evaluating who has done a good job of arranging their pre-conference matches. With regards to the poor showing last year, the majority of those non conference wins were beverages by Hawaii and UCSB iirc. Each school only lost one match in preseason (Baylor and Colorado respectively). I'd like to see the Big West do better in 2020.
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Post by hapaguy on May 2, 2020 1:04:22 GMT -5
Looks like CP has reloaded. That's terrific. We need all the teams in the BW to up their game. I was worried that the BW was going to become like the WAC with Hawaii just steamrolling the competition year after year. No one wants to see that.... This is an interesting comment... Hawaii certainly didn’t steamroll in 2017&2018 where they were very fortunate to come through with at-large bids. Last year was impressive, let’s see if they can keep it up. You must not have read my comment very carefully. I didn't say Hawaii steamrolled anyone in the BW. I said "I was WORRIED that the BW WAS GOING TO BECOME LIKE THE WAC."
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Post by hapaguy on May 2, 2020 1:15:39 GMT -5
Looks like CP has reloaded. That's terrific. We need all the teams in the BW to up their game. I was worried that the BW was going to become like the WAC with Hawaii just steamrolling the competition year after year. No one wants to see that.... Which teams did you think will be better in 2020 and which will be worse? That's a genuine question, not leading... Interested in your perspective. TBH I really don't know. I was just responding to Jakes posts about CP's recruits. UCSB had a huge loss with Ruddins graduating. She was my favorite non-wahine. I really like Froley too. Don't know who UCSB got coming in that could fill Ruddins shoes so I would think they will be down a little from last year. I'm hoping LBSU can get back to being relevant again. Same for Irvine....But again, I really don't know who those teams got coming in.
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Post by Deleted on May 2, 2020 2:23:32 GMT -5
Which teams did you think will be better in 2020 and which will be worse? That's a genuine question, not leading... Interested in your perspective. TBH I really don't know. I was just responding to Jakes posts about CP's recruits. UCSB had a huge loss with Ruddins graduating. She was my favorite non-wahine. I really like Froley too. Don't know who UCSB got coming in that could fill Ruddins shoes so I would think they will be down a little from last year. I'm hoping LBSU can get back to being relevant again. Same for Irvine....But again, I really don't know who those teams got coming in. Ruddins is a huge loss, obviously. There's no one coming into UCSB at that kind of level. The Gauchos also lost one of the best Liberos in the nation... and you don't even have to take my word for that. Fleck has to be one of the worst All Big West snubs in recent memory. On top of those two, they also lose their best setter in Lovenberg and a good 6-Ro OH. They were one of the best passing teams in the country in 2019 and they lost all their passers. They have a ton of pins coming in but no setters and only one DS. There's no way UCSB is going to be threatening a top 25 ranking.
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on May 2, 2020 2:36:20 GMT -5
This is an interesting comment... Hawaii certainly didn’t steamroll in 2017&2018 where they were very fortunate to come through with at-large bids. Last year was impressive, let’s see if they can keep it up. You must not have read my comment very carefully. I didn't say Hawaii steamrolled anyone in the BW. I said "I was WORRIED that the BW WAS GOING TO BECOME LIKE THE WAC." I read your comment perfectly. If you’re worried about that happening, there’s only two logical explanations I can think of. That Hawaii is either showing extra dominance in recent history or that the rest of the Big West is getting worse. Because in the WAC days, nobody was getting at large bids and Hawaii losses were much more rare than in the Big West. You also wouldn’t necessarily be wrong to say the Big West is arguably getting worse, but I still think it’s a stretch to think Hawaii will end up rolling the BW year in and year out like it did the WAC
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Post by medusa on May 2, 2020 10:08:19 GMT -5
I just hope that there is a women volleyball season for 2020....Do any one know if UH played or gonna play any preseason and or spring matches? Wondering if all the athletes on team is in Hawaii already?
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Post by jake on May 2, 2020 12:46:47 GMT -5
I just hope that there is a women volleyball season for 2020....Do any one know if UH played or gonna play any preseason and or spring matches? Wondering if all the athletes on team is in Hawaii already? Concur 100% And,...if,...there is a season what will air travel be like? Will schools be busing a lot more rather than fly?
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Post by WahineFan44 on May 2, 2020 12:52:40 GMT -5
I really hope there is a season. Hawaii has such a promising team, and can really do well again this year.
I also hope we hear more about some 2021 because we most a lot of fire power when Jolie, Brooke and Skyler graduate.
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Post by beachgrad on May 2, 2020 15:06:29 GMT -5
You must not have read my comment very carefully. I didn't say Hawaii steamrolled anyone in the BW. I said "I was WORRIED that the BW WAS GOING TO BECOME LIKE THE WAC." I read your comment perfectly. If you’re worried about that happening, there’s only two logical explanations I can think of. That Hawaii is either showing extra dominance in recent history or that the rest of the Big West is getting worse. Because in the WAC days, nobody was getting at large bids and Hawaii losses were much more rare than in the Big West. You also wouldn’t necessarily be wrong to say the Big West is arguably getting worse, but I still think it’s a stretch to think Hawaii will end up rolling the BW year in and year out like it did the WAC The Big West is getting better and that is reflected in the conference getting three teams in the NCAA last season. Plus, the top teams are recruiting a lot better and that is again reflected in the rankings of their 2020 recruiting classes: 14 Long Beach State and 23 UCSB. In 2021 Cal Poly has a good overall class and LBSU brings in another top 25 national recruit. We all know Hawaii typically has a nice roster every year. Things moving up and not down. However, the conference’s bottom third needs to start improving as a group.
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Post by Deleted on May 2, 2020 16:00:37 GMT -5
I read your comment perfectly. If you’re worried about that happening, there’s only two logical explanations I can think of. That Hawaii is either showing extra dominance in recent history or that the rest of the Big West is getting worse. Because in the WAC days, nobody was getting at large bids and Hawaii losses were much more rare than in the Big West. You also wouldn’t necessarily be wrong to say the Big West is arguably getting worse, but I still think it’s a stretch to think Hawaii will end up rolling the BW year in and year out like it did the WAC The Big West is getting better and that is reflected in the conference getting three teams in the NCAA last season. Plus, the top teams are recruiting a lot better and that is again reflected in the rankings of their 2020 recruiting classes: 14 Long Beach State and 23 UCSB. In 2021 Cal Poly has a good overall class and LBSU brings in another top 25 national recruit. We all know Hawaii typically has a nice roster every year. Things moving up and not down. However, the conference’s bottom third needs to start improving as a group. Beach I definitely think improved. The virus is hurting them more than others because they have so many new pieces but I think they'll be top 3 in BW 2020. Hawaii, I don't think their recruiting class is stellar, but just getting JR back would make them the best team in the conference so long as Lang is serviceable. I don't think there's any way you can make the case that UCSB got better this offseason though. If they were just losing Ruddins and Glasker, that'd still be tough to replace but they lost two more of their best players only 2 years into their careers. That offense is not built to run a 5-1 (Vivao is 5'7) and there is no setter in the incoming class. They also lost the best Libero in the conference with very little behind her in that position and, apparently, have no scholarships in 2020 available to bring in a transfer at either spot! If, Bakersfield and UC San Diego are both RPI 250+ the entire conference takes a hit. Based on that, unless Hawaii, Poly and Beach are all top 25 programs this year, I don't see how the conference is going to be stronger than last year. I can't see 3 teams making the tournament.
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Post by beachgrad on May 2, 2020 17:22:19 GMT -5
My point was that the conference is trending up, especially with the overall recruiting. We all expect UCSB to take a step back next year but their quality recruits may expedite the process back to the top.
I believe Bakersfield will be in the conference next year but UC San Diego will still be out for a few more years. Over time UC San Diego will be a good addition but I expect Bakersfield will be a drag on the conference. I just do not see quality volleyball recruits seeing Bakersfield as a destination school. I believe that school can succeed in other Big West but just not volleyball.
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Post by hapaguy on May 2, 2020 17:25:43 GMT -5
The Big West is getting better and that is reflected in the conference getting three teams in the NCAA last season. Plus, the top teams are recruiting a lot better and that is again reflected in the rankings of their 2020 recruiting classes: 14 Long Beach State and 23 UCSB. In 2021 Cal Poly has a good overall class and LBSU brings in another top 25 national recruit. We all know Hawaii typically has a nice roster every year. Things moving up and not down. However, the conference’s bottom third needs to start improving as a group. Beach I definitely think improved. The virus is hurting them more than others because they have so many new pieces but I think they'll be top 3 in BW 2020. Hawaii, I don't think their recruiting class is stellar, but just getting JR back would make them the best team in the conference so long as Lang is serviceable. I don't think there's any way you can make the case that UCSB got better this offseason though. If they were just losing Ruddins and Glasker, that'd still be tough to replace but they lost two more of their best players only 2 years into their careers. That offense is not built to run a 5-1 (Vivao is 5'7) and there is no setter in the incoming class. They also lost the best Libero in the conference with very little behind her in that position and, apparently, have no scholarships in 2020 available to bring in a transfer at either spot! If, Bakersfield and UC San Diego are both RPI 250+ the entire conference takes a hit. Based on that, unless Hawaii, Poly and Beach are all top 25 programs this year, I don't see how the conference is going to be stronger than last year. I can't see 3 teams making the tournament. "...getting JR back would make them the best team in the conference so long as Lang is serviceable." Agreed. But don't forget we got Mylana Byrd - the 6'2" transfer setter from Alabama who is originally from Houston. I'm not as concerned about the setting position as I am the Libero position....that's the position that worries me the most....
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Post by Deleted on May 2, 2020 17:30:06 GMT -5
My point was that the conference is trending up, especially with the overall recruiting. We all expect UCSB to take a step back next year but their quality recruits may expedite the process back to the top. I believe Bakersfield will be in the conference next year but UC San Diego will still be out for a few more years. Over time UC San Diego will be a good addition but I expect Bakersfield will be a drag on the conference. I just do not see quality volleyball recruits seeing Bakersfield as a destination school. I believe that school can succeed in other Big West but just not volleyball. UC San Diego start playing BW matches in 2020 but are ineligible for post season tournaments or conference championships until their transition period is complete. The issue for UCSB is one of scholarship mismanagement in my opinion. The fact that they have only 1 setter and no scholarships available suggests that they have tied up their resources in players who just aren't contributing. They'll have at least two scholarships available in 2021 I think, but will likely have holes at MB, S and Libero to fill. The immediate need is for quality first and second contact. I agree with you that they'll reload at the pins with this class.
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Post by hapaguy on May 2, 2020 17:34:27 GMT -5
You must not have read my comment very carefully. I didn't say Hawaii steamrolled anyone in the BW. I said "I was WORRIED that the BW WAS GOING TO BECOME LIKE THE WAC." I read your comment perfectly. If you’re worried about that happening, there’s only two logical explanations I can think of. That Hawaii is either showing extra dominance in recent history or that the rest of the Big West is getting worse. Because in the WAC days, nobody was getting at large bids and Hawaii losses were much more rare than in the Big West. You also wouldn’t necessarily be wrong to say the Big West is arguably getting worse, but I still think it’s a stretch to think Hawaii will end up rolling the BW year in and year out like it did the WAC Not to get into a back and forth with you BUT if you read my comment "perfectly" why did you bring up the fact that "Hawaii certainly didn’t steamroll in 2017&2018" when I didn't mention anything about Hawaii steamrolling in the BW? And in answer to "If you’re worried about that happening, there’s only two logical explanations I can think of. That Hawaii is either showing extra dominance in recent history or that the rest of the Big West is getting worse", I thought it was pretty obvious from my comment that I thought the latter: that the BW was getting worse....
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on May 2, 2020 18:20:05 GMT -5
I read your comment perfectly. If you’re worried about that happening, there’s only two logical explanations I can think of. That Hawaii is either showing extra dominance in recent history or that the rest of the Big West is getting worse. Because in the WAC days, nobody was getting at large bids and Hawaii losses were much more rare than in the Big West. You also wouldn’t necessarily be wrong to say the Big West is arguably getting worse, but I still think it’s a stretch to think Hawaii will end up rolling the BW year in and year out like it did the WAC Not to get into a back and forth with you BUT if you read my comment "perfectly" why did you bring up the fact that "Hawaii certainly didn’t steamroll in 2017&2018" when I didn't mention anything about Hawaii steamrolling in the BW? And in answer to "If you’re worried about that happening, there’s only two logical explanations I can think of. That Hawaii is either showing extra dominance in recent history or that the rest of the Big West is getting worse", I thought it was pretty obvious from my comment that I thought the latter: that the BW was getting worse.... I brought that up as evidence of why I think the Big West is no way going to ever look like the WAC was, Hawaii WAS steamrolling in the WAC (as you said yourself).. they won the regular-season championship 15 years in a row I think? Meanwhile, Hawaii has only won the championship 1 of the last 3 years and this year's championship was kind of gritty, not so much dominance. That all lead me to wonder why you would worry about the Big West becoming the WAC. Good young talent coming into/at LBSU, and already really good young players like Julia Crawford and Onye Ofoegbu give me hope for the BW.
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