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Post by eldorado on Jun 30, 2020 14:02:39 GMT -5
Passing was shaky last year but I think she’s ready to play an all around opposite (a la Nikki Taylor) Was it that shaky though? As a true Fr, who got thrust into the role as OOS terminator when JR went down, she still passed a 48.2% on the year. BVS (and yes, I'm aware of her knee) only passed a 50.8%. If not Helvig, who else passes? BVS, libero and...? As good as she was in 2019, I think Helvig will be special in 2020. Looking at the roster, I'm not sure there's a DS who'll pass significantly better than Hanna would, and her offense from the BR would be great to have. She will struggle at times, but the plan is that she's a 6-ro player in 2021, so I'd try and get her more experience now, I think. BWF2, I have to say I love your posts with passing stats. The more I see the more I wonder why box scores and team stats don’t have more data on passers. Maybe that’s why liberos and ds (and many OH) are under (and sometimes over) appreciated, there’s no data sets to go with them. Reading recent posts I’m wondering if you (or someone else with similar data) can give factual context to passing numbers. For example, how much does each 1% (IE 48.2% vs 49.2%) improvement in good pass correspond to average % increase in team hitting percentage? Is that a known quantity? Is there a factor to apply to a OH who let’s say is hitting .280 and passing 48% vs one who hits .250 but passes 51% to decide which brings more point differential to your team? Is there an average point differential per game that each 1% passing improvement brings to a team? I’m thinking you do have that much as at the NFL draft they talk about how dropping from “7th to 12th in the first round” might be worth a 4th and a 6th round pick. Thanks for any insights
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Post by eldorado on Jun 30, 2020 14:06:37 GMT -5
For example, are all good passes equally important to a good game result, or seen in context to the system they are occurring in and against the competition being played against, and the result they are achieving, and the other options available to the coach/players at the time, are some less than good passes more than good enough? Is there a stat for that in VM, or a captured film moment that can tell you that. Probably not. See this is why it's funny that you'd try and tell me the limitations of something you have never used. Of course some points are more important than others. VM allows you to filter your data set , or game film, by the situation within the match; points after both teams have reached 20-20 (red zone), set point, match point, first 10 points in a set etc. When preparing scouting reports, you will always watch film from high pressure situations and knowing team/player tendencies in those moments is very useful. Likewise, knowing if a player has a history of missing serves or shanking passes in such situations, is a useful thing to glean from the data. Of course, that doesn't necessarily mean she'll shank one against us, does it? But it's context through which we can understand her past performance and prepare for a potential future one. And right there you've demonstrated why your attempt to provide "context" to my application of VM is misguided. You don't understand the system you're attempting to categorize. That is not to say that VM is more than a way of interpreting and analysing what happened in the match. It isn't. But the reason we use it as a teaching tool with the players, for evaluation and for scouting, is that it provides us more context than other than we'd have without it - were we to simply "trust our lying eyes". Which brings me back to my question; where is this context you were trying to provide me coming from? What is your special insight here and, since we're talking about UH, can you apply it to the quality of Rasmussen's passing? I think it's an interesting element to discuss, regarding UH's ball control next year... I have watched the matches (both Oregon and UH) and analyzed the data, but I'm looking forward to your context. When evaluating your own OH effectiveness can / do you run data showing their kill and hitting percentages for different quality passes? For example can / do you evaluate hitting percentage with 2’s and 3’s only? OOS only?
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Post by Deleted on Jun 30, 2020 14:43:15 GMT -5
You're just like every other homer on VT; you like the data when it supports your bias, when it doesn't you try to argue that "the data is wrong". It's cute, it's not new and it's little wonder given the circle jerk of confirmation bias that is the UH thread. The best bit is, you're now trying to avoid my question regarding JR's passing! Why? Share some of your "context" with us. Illuminate the thread with context on JR's passing, in comparison to the other options available... I'm eager to keep learning from you! It's conclusions from the analysis of your data that's been questioned. Largely because your analysis appears over reliant on VM. It didn't acknowledge context. But your question and analysis re Hellvig was definitely a step forward. But, your over reaction to critique, and personal attacks aren't a good look. You can do better!
As for JR, she's a six rotation player. Whatever failings she has as a passer are more then compensated for by her ability to attack from anywhere on the court, the energy and confidence she brings that inspires all around her. When she's on the court, the team is more patient, she expects to the carry the load and asks to, and everyone else's game improves. Ah Mow was managing her minutes and giving her breaks as she could, taking her out of the back row when she could or looked like she needed a break. When she was injured, she was playing front row, she was a bit over aggressive in trying to attack a set drifting over her shoulder that was low and drifting into the net. She landed over the line and stepped on the foot of West Virginia's MB, who had aggressively gone for the block and whose foot also over went over the line. They both wound up injured.
Wow. That is your context? Those are opinions, with a bizarre and superfluous description of how JR got hurt. I ask about passing and you tell me "Whatever failings she has as a passer are more then compensated for by her ability to attack from anywhere on the court" - then immediately contradict yourself by saying Coach Rob took her out of the serve receive formation when she struggled... Which is it? Is she invaluable regardless of her passing (like Yossiana Pressley) or does she get DSd when she struggles? The bigger question, which you're avoiding, is who is the better passer; JR or HH? And on what data (or other contextualizing information) are you basing that opinion?
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Post by Deleted on Jun 30, 2020 14:51:17 GMT -5
Was it that shaky though? As a true Fr, who got thrust into the role as OOS terminator when JR went down, she still passed a 48.2% on the year. BVS (and yes, I'm aware of her knee) only passed a 50.8%. If not Helvig, who else passes? BVS, libero and...? As good as she was in 2019, I think Helvig will be special in 2020. Looking at the roster, I'm not sure there's a DS who'll pass significantly better than Hanna would, and her offense from the BR would be great to have. She will struggle at times, but the plan is that she's a 6-ro player in 2021, so I'd try and get her more experience now, I think. BWF2, I have to say I love your posts with passing stats. The more I see the more I wonder why box scores and team stats don’t have more data on passers. Maybe that’s why liberos and ds (and many OH) are under (and sometimes over) appreciated, there’s no data sets to go with them. Reading recent posts I’m wondering if you (or someone else with similar data) can give factual context to passing numbers. For example, how much does each 1% (IE 48.2% vs 49.2%) improvement in good pass correspond to average % increase in team hitting percentage? Is that a known quantity? Is there a factor to apply to a OH who let’s say is hitting .280 and passing 48% vs one who hits .250 but passes 51% to decide which brings more point differential to your team? Is there an average point differential per game that each 1% passing improvement brings to a team? I’m thinking you do have that much as at the NFL draft they talk about how dropping from “7th to 12th in the first round” might be worth a 4th and a 6th round pick. Thanks for any insights You're welcome. DM me if you have any Qs specific to VM. Happy to share.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 30, 2020 14:51:51 GMT -5
This is not a Hawaii thread or a direct message. ---- Anywho, the team I'm really intrigued by is Long Beach State. I cannot wait to see what they can put together this season, but I predict they'll be back in the Top 50 in 2021, and as long as no one leaves, even higher in 2022. I just hope the coaching can match the talent coming in (with all respect to Joy of course)! You don't think Beach are top 50 in 2020?
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Post by HawaiiVB on Jun 30, 2020 14:52:35 GMT -5
A healthy JR is scary. She has all the shots and can block like a wall. Most BW teams have its version of a JR. What will help make a difference is the rest of the team and the gelling of each part. Passing is key for any team to stay on top.
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Post by staticb on Jun 30, 2020 14:52:35 GMT -5
I agree we'll be fine at setter. It's not like we run a super quick or overly complex offense. Worst case scenario we set a lot of high balls to the outside--we have two excellent out of system pin hitters that can still get us by most of the opponents on our schedule this way. I agree serve-receive will be the biggest question mark going in. For once we know we have hitters! The first season in a long time I'm confident in all of the hitters we have coming back! Thoughts on the potential of Helvig playing as a 6-ro Opp this year and passing? Her passing is ok. I don't know her numbers, but I thought her hitting % was significantly worse when she had to pass and then hit. I think team will probably be ok on offense if they have to DS her out. They could leave her in as a non-passing backrow attacker, but having only 3 passers passing all 6 rotations can sometimes stress the team in other ways.
So maybe? I would try leaving her in there and passing in only a handful of rotations, but I want her to be one of the first attacking options on an in-system set on that right side.
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Post by HawaiiVB on Jun 30, 2020 14:53:30 GMT -5
This is not a Hawaii thread or a direct message. ---- Anywho, the team I'm really intrigued by is Long Beach State. I cannot wait to see what they can put together this season, but I predict they'll be back in the Top 50 in 2021, and as long as no one leaves, even higher in 2022. I just hope the coaching can match the talent coming in (with all respect to Joy of course)! You don't think Beach are top 50 in 2020? They are, no doubt. They have weapons all around. To overlook them is a big mistake.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 30, 2020 15:07:43 GMT -5
You don't think Beach are top 50 in 2020? They are, no doubt. They have weapons all around. To overlook them is a big mistake. Agree, I think Hoff wins the libero job - she'd have been the second best passing libero in the conference last year, 58.6%, ahead of Dickson and behind Fleck. Jordan is the OH2 they were lacking in 2019 (well, they had one, they just played her at libero). If Hoff, Jordan and the DSs can handle that first contact Tuaniga has firepower to hurt teams. Regarding blocking, I still expect Beach to be work in progress. UH are the best blocking team in the conference by far. Poly needs Dvoracek to block better in 2020. She was objectively poor in 2019. I am excited to see Beach come together. They have a few really tough matches in preseason, so you'll get to see them under pressure. If they can pull off a big win or two, I think they could be top 50 by the end of the season.
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Post by HawaiiVB on Jun 30, 2020 15:08:26 GMT -5
I'm predicting with many volleyball players staying close to home, the BW is building on the talent pool. Now if we can get the bottom teams up to speed, then the BW will become legit.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 30, 2020 15:40:20 GMT -5
I'm predicting with many volleyball players staying close to home, the BW is building on the talent pool. Now if we can get the bottom teams up to speed, then the BW will become legit. I'd love to agree, but the BW lost a lot of talent in 2019. Through graduation, transfers or retirement, you could make a case that UH, CP, UCSB & Irvine all lost their best player (TVW, Ruddins, Iosia, Marjama), UCSB lost too much to challenge this season and it's hard to see that many net improvements in talent. Of the incoming fr, how many do you realistically expect to match the players they are replacing? Beach got better, I think that's clear. UH should be improved, but that's more to do with JR getting healthy than the incoming class. Lang might be the only Fr who sees the floor and she has big shoes to fill. Poly, UCSB and CSUF all have big incoming classes but I'm not sure those players fill the holes on the rosters. I am excited to see players like Grace Cannon, Michelle Ohwobete and Kameron Bacon but Bakersfield and UCSD will be closer to the bottom of the conference than the top.
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Post by noblesol on Jun 30, 2020 16:45:20 GMT -5
It's conclusions from the analysis of your data that's been questioned. Largely because your analysis appears over reliant on VM. It didn't acknowledge context. But your question and analysis re Hellvig was definitely a step forward. But, your over reaction to critique, and personal attacks aren't a good look. You can do better!
As for JR, she's a six rotation player. Whatever failings she has as a passer are more then compensated for by her ability to attack from anywhere on the court, the energy and confidence she brings that inspires all around her. When she's on the court, the team is more patient, she expects to the carry the load and asks to, and everyone else's game improves. Ah Mow was managing her minutes and giving her breaks as she could, taking her out of the back row when she could or looked like she needed a break. When she was injured, she was playing front row, she was a bit over aggressive in trying to attack a set drifting over her shoulder that was low and drifting into the net. She landed over the line and stepped on the foot of West Virginia's MB, who had aggressively gone for the block and whose foot also over went over the line. They both wound up injured.
Wow. That is your context? Those are opinions, with a bizarre and superfluous description of how JR got hurt. I ask about passing and you tell me "Whatever failings she has as a passer are more then compensated for by her ability to attack from anywhere on the court" - then immediately contradict yourself by saying Coach Rob took her out of the serve receive formation when she struggled... Which is it? Is she invaluable regardless of her passing (like Yossiana Pressley) or does she get DSd when she struggles? The bigger question, which you're avoiding, is who is the better passer; JR or HH? And on what data (or other contextualizing information) are you basing that opinion? bwf2 to noblesol: re context "...since we're talking about UH, can you apply it to the quality of Rasmussen's passing?"
trojansc comment: "Hawaii better keep Helvig on the floor for 6-ro’s — passing or not. Hawaii can be a big time contender building a system around her the next few years." bwf2 to trojansc: re Hellvig/Rasmussen 6-rotation: "Rasmussen 6-ro too? Or DS her?" trojansc to bwf2: re Hellvig/Rasmussen 6-rotation: "Hmmm. I don’t know. Injury prone athletes = I’m skeptical." So, you asked me for the quality of her passing. I pondered. You engaged with trojansc re an and/or scenario between Hellvig and Rasmussen as 6-rotation. I pondered that. Then I responded to both items pondered in one paragraph. Its fair to critique me for not making that clear. I realized after I posted that I should have broken it down, at least into separate paragraphs. My apologies for confusing you. But, request you drop the personal vitriol. It's totally unnecessary. Grownups can disagree agreeably.
Re opinions, they are data. Some opinions are worth more than others, so we always consider the source. But opinions are always data to be considered. They are part of what forms a fuller context. In particular, a question on quality of performance suggests a holistic response, something more than what VM can provide. Since you have VM already, no need for me to give you raw stats, just my opinion based on direct observation.
For the first seven games with both Rasmussen and Hellvig available, the Ah Mow answer was they were both 6-rotation, playing opposite the other in the rotation. One was always in the front row when the other was in the back. In the front row they'd hit left pin or right based primarily on blocking assignments. The practical answer was they were both good enough passers, and one certainly didn't need VM to analyze that. The W/L results spoke for itself. Both would get rested from time to time with a DS/Lib substitution. Partly to manage need for rest, partly for injury prevention, in the case of Hellvig to manage freshman anxiety, and partly when they were having difficulty with a particular server. With the libero on the bench it was an easy quick substitution for a rotation or two, as allowed by the situation. But both added so much to the back row attack, they didn't sit long.
Rasmussen has a hx of injuries, but her backrow play didn't contribute to it last season. I watched her during a spring session, a fall practice, and all of her matches, and she wasn't unnecessarily diving or throwing her body around. It was all technical and controlled, even reserved. It was a moment of aggressiveness at the net going after a lame drifting set that did in her season. The opinion of this observer is she likes being in the backrow. In a spring session against Texas, she was digging everything her way and chasing balls almost into the stands. The passing was good, or good enough. It was all very controlled, and no one was poaching from her. When she went after it, the sea of players/fans parted.
When Rasmussen went down, the load on Hellvig to be a much bigger part of the offense started to wear on her. It was a lot to ask of the freshman. Eventually the right answer was to make her 3-rotation. She was much fresher both hitting and blocking, and it allowed Ah Mow the opportunity to take advantage of Iosia's skills and on-court leadership of the team for all six rotations.
So, there is my context, more holistic and opinionated than what VM. I offer it in goodwill.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 30, 2020 19:35:53 GMT -5
bwf2 to noblesol: re context "...since we're talking about UH, can you apply it to the quality of Rasmussen's passing?"
trojansc comment: "Hawaii better keep Helvig on the floor for 6-ro’s — passing or not. Hawaii can be a big time contender building a system around her the next few years." bwf2 to trojansc: re Hellvig/Rasmussen 6-rotation: "Rasmussen 6-ro too? Or DS her?" trojansc to bwf2: re Hellvig/Rasmussen 6-rotation: "Hmmm. I don’t know. Injury prone athletes = I’m skeptical." So, you asked me for the quality of her passing. I pondered. You engaged with trojansc re an and/or scenario between Hellvig and Rasmussen as 6-rotation. I pondered that. Then I responded to both items pondered in one paragraph. Its fair to critique me for not making that clear. I realized after I posted that I should have broken it down, at least into separate paragraphs. My apologies for confusing you. But, request you drop the personal vitriol. It's totally unnecessary. Grownups can disagree agreeably.
Re opinions, they are data. Some opinions are worth more than others, so we always consider the source. But opinions are always data to be considered. They are part of what forms a fuller context. In particular, a question on quality of performance suggests a holistic response, something more than what VM can provide. Since you have VM already, no need for me to give you raw stats, just my opinion based on direct observation.
For the first seven games with both Rasmussen and Hellvig available, the Ah Mow answer was they were both 6-rotation, playing opposite the other in the rotation. One was always in the front row when the other was in the back. In the front row they'd hit left pin or right based primarily on blocking assignments. The practical answer was they were both good enough passers, and one certainly didn't need VM to analyze that. The W/L results spoke for itself. Both would get rested from time to time with a DS/Lib substitution. Partly to manage need for rest, partly for injury prevention, in the case of Hellvig to manage freshman anxiety, and partly when they were having difficulty with a particular server. With the libero on the bench it was an easy quick substitution for a rotation or two, as allowed by the situation. But both added so much to the back row attack, they didn't sit long.
Rasmussen has a hx of injuries, but her backrow play didn't contribute to it last season. I watched her during a spring session, a fall practice, and all of her matches, and she wasn't unnecessarily diving or throwing her body around. It was all technical and controlled, even reserved. It was a moment of aggressiveness at the net going after a lame drifting set that did in her season. The opinion of this observer is she likes being in the backrow. In a spring session against Texas, she was digging everything her way and chasing balls almost into the stands. The passing was good, or good enough. It was all very controlled, and no one was poaching from her. When she went after it, the sea of players/fans parted.
When Rasmussen went down, the load on Hellvig to be a much bigger part of the offense started to wear on her. It was a lot to ask of the freshman. Eventually the right answer was to make her 3-rotation. She was much fresher both hitting and blocking, and it allowed Ah Mow the opportunity to take advantage of Iosia's skills and on-court leadership of the team for all six rotations.
So, there is my context, more holistic and opinionated than what VM. I offer it in goodwill.
Happy to relinquish any vitriol. I wasn't looking to argue with you & genuinely appreciated the post you made, summarizing the weaknesses of different rosters - and agreed with all of it, directly prior to the one about 'contextualizing' my posting. I understand only too well the limitations of the data. But the fact is the data is generated by the performances. It all starts with the games which, I assure you, get watched closely, repeatedly, in detail. I tend to use the data to express a point on here because it is quicker (for me) and cleaner (to read). As much as I enjoy reading all of the opinions on VT, I try to make data-driven posts because I think it's good to balance out discussions which can, in some cases, become a bit partisan. I'm also aware that some of the data I post (passing stats for instance) isn't widely available and so I understand if folks are resistant to it. Trust me, I wish it they put that stuff in the box score! But ultimately, I'm always open to have a conversation about volley. Across the internet, it's really easy to imagine someone is a %¡$!# but the truth is, if we met in person, you and I would probably have a lot to talk about. Now, that said, I appreciated your holistic thoughts on JR. She actually did get DSd because she was passing badly, early in the season against SJU. Coach Rob didn't have much choice though, JR had passed 10 balls and only 1 of them had been a '2 pass' or better for a 10% good pass rate. On the season JR managed a 38.7% good pass rate, with a 1.95 passing grade. Helvig, as I've said, passed a 48.2%. I went back and looked at the 2017 season at Oregon and JR passed 202 balls with a 44.6% good pass rate for a 2 passing grade. For 2020 I'd like to see a healthy BVS at least match what Ross did last year (54%) and I think Hanawahine will be solid in SR. I also think that Helvig's floor is 48% good pass, since she managed it this year under less than ideal circumstances. If she could get to a ~52% kind of range I'd personally like to see her play 6 rotations and pass in 5, with JR taking the remaining one. That way you'd get consistency among the SR unit - something UH struggled with at times in 2019 - and, if someone IS having a bad match, you could bring in a DS to help with ball control. Hawaii's strength this year will be their pins; I'd like to see all 3 of them on the floor for 6 rotations.
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Post by Hawk Attack on Jun 30, 2020 19:51:11 GMT -5
Huh. This was messier than I expected.
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Post by hwnstunner on Jun 30, 2020 20:32:15 GMT -5
Take your back and forth comments to direct message. I wanna talk about BWC Volleyball, not watch a tennis match of disagreements. Blah.
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