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Post by volleylearner on Apr 8, 2020 12:58:35 GMT -5
The vball crowds at the big midwestern programs tend older. Given the huge risks posed to that age group, it's really hard for me to see how large indoor gatherings will be a good idea by fall. Will we require that everyone show they are positive for antibodies before attending? Is it even possible to implement such a policy reliably? Otherwise we have to hope for a dependable treatment because the vaccine won't be ready in time. We don't have a great record of developing such treatments for this family of viruses - but then again, there hasn't been a pressing need. I don't think we should assume a one-size-fits-all approach across the country. Some communities/teams/leagues may shutdown during a second wave, but localized quarantining and contact tracing can be effective if infections are detected quickly. I guess it is possible some events will only allow attendees with antibodies, but it seems more likely that events will discourage at-risk people from attending and/or require ID for tracing in case one or more test positive afterward. Of course at some threshold containment is no longer possible and we are back to where we are now, but I expect a strong push to do something that allows events to happen by late summer at the latest.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Apr 8, 2020 13:03:11 GMT -5
Yep - I think the potential for a 2nd wave is THE big risk. That said - I also think that social distancing was our only way to deal with the pandemic, which isn't the same thing as saying social distancing is the only way to prevent a pandemic (outside a vaccine). In theory, there could be a way to prevent the 2nd wave from turning into a pandemic while greatly loosening the current social distancing going on right now. The vball crowds at the big midwestern programs tend older. Given the huge risks posed to that age group, it's really hard for me to see how large indoor gatherings will be a good idea by fall. Will we require that everyone show they are positive for antibodies before attending? Is it even possible to implement such a policy reliably? Otherwise we have to hope for a dependable treatment because the vaccine won't be ready in time. We don't have a great record of developing such treatments for this family of viruses - but then again, there hasn't been a pressing need. To be determined or indoor groups may not happen this fall. There are multiple things that could be done to reduce the risk: 1) Masks - this will become rather common I think 2) More and better testing to quickly pinpoint when/where the virus is and take actions to control 3) Fever tests before entering (or card showing 'clean' test within a certain amount of time) 4) Huge increase in hand sanitizers. 5) Better awareness by people (call it hyper germaphobe behavior). Is sneezing in public going to be considered very taboo? 6) Senior Citizen sections (not a fan of this, but it could happen). 7) Things I didn't think of in 5 minutes of thinking With all that - high risk people probably will (*should*) not attend large group events this fall.
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Post by bigjohn043 on Apr 8, 2020 13:23:50 GMT -5
Kind of related to that, I keep wondering if quarantines are helping the virus evolve. Would herd immunity work at the cost of more lives temporarily? I don’t see many experts saying yes or no to that question. There is so much uncertainty with this virus. I’m not advocating opening things up sooner, but I am curious if the idea is at least being danced with. It seems everyone’s focus is on a potential vaccine, not that they are wrong for that. Unequivocally no. The estimated deaths with britain's herd immunity strategy was 500k, a per capita rate that would be 2 million people in the US. There's a reason they switched away from it. Trust me, the experts studied it and said no. The talking heads suggesting herd immunity are mostly not public heath experts. I'm not sure what you mean about quarantines helping the virus evolve. The virus will evolve over time regardless, it's a biological process. Your answer of unequivocally no is wrong. The numbers you are suggesting assume a case fatality rate of ~1%. And while it is very possible that estimate is correct, it is also possible that there are many asymptomatic or lightly symptomatic people that caught it and were never tested. Until we have anti-body tests we won't really know. Case fatality rates could be under 0.1% and then herd immunity (while quarantining the elderly is a very sensible strategy). So you can say likely no but not unequivocally no. I would also point out that there is literally zero data on the impact of various forms of social distancing. Do we need to shut down everything or just stay 6 feet apart? How effective would it be if everyone just used a lot of hand sanitizer? Is it safe to go to the beach? We know that a total shutdown is working but not what else might work. For instance, in Sweden elementary schools are still open and never closed. They don't seem to be any worse than their neighbors at this point. There is literally no science on this. Remember all of the experts also believed that travel bans didn't work.....
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Post by cindra on Apr 8, 2020 14:06:18 GMT -5
Unequivocally no. The estimated deaths with britain's herd immunity strategy was 500k, a per capita rate that would be 2 million people in the US. There's a reason they switched away from it. Trust me, the experts studied it and said no. The talking heads suggesting herd immunity are mostly not public heath experts. I'm not sure what you mean about quarantines helping the virus evolve. The virus will evolve over time regardless, it's a biological process. Your answer of unequivocally no is wrong. The numbers you are suggesting assume a case fatality rate of ~1%. And while it is very possible that estimate is correct, it is also possible that there are many asymptomatic or lightly symptomatic people that caught it and were never tested. Until we have anti-body tests we won't really know. Case fatality rates could be under 0.1% and then herd immunity (while quarantining the elderly is a very sensible strategy). So you can say likely no but not unequivocally no. I would also point out that there is literally zero data on the impact of various forms of social distancing. Do we need to shut down everything or just stay 6 feet apart? How effective would it be if everyone just used a lot of hand sanitizer? Is it safe to go to the beach? We know that a total shutdown is working but not what else might work. For instance, in Sweden elementary schools are still open and never closed. They don't seem to be any worse than their neighbors at this point. There is literally no science on this. Remember all of the experts also believed that travel bans didn't work..... Sweden has the highest fatality rate per capita of any Scandinavian country and higher than Iran or the US. They're starting to shut down now that the curve is actually hitting. Their strategy clearly didn't work seeing as they're beginning to transition to mandated social distancing. There is also tons of data on social distancing, considering it's the chosen strategy of every country that seems to be coping well with the virus and is historically the best method of slowing disease. See: 1918 flu in Philly vs. St Louis, SARS measures, etc. It works. There's a reason that countries are using it. There's no situation, modeled or real, in which the herd immunity option saves more lives than social distancing rules. Also, the WHO didn't recommend travel bans but did recommend checking for symptoms at ports of entry, the reasoning being that people will at least be checked when they enter as travel bans can lead to attempts at illegal entries. The US travel bans on Europe and China allowed citizens and residents to travel and did inadequate jobs at mitigating spread because of minimal testing and a lack of self-quarantine orders early on.
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Post by uncommitted on Apr 8, 2020 15:11:54 GMT -5
Whatever we’re doing is working. That national projection dropped by like 30,000 deaths over the weekend. I looked at this yesterday and they were projecting 80K deaths and this morning it is down to 60K. I think they were over 200K not that long ago. looking at the stats coming through the COVID Tracking Project (I look at this every day for each state) - it was looking like things are improving very quickly late last week and over the weekend despite seeing increases in deaths (that are the result of things done 4 weeks ago). What this country has done over the last 3 weeks has been working and my optimism for the upcoming season is much higher today than a couple weeks ago. Looking at Colorado - today is their projected peak in hospital resources. May 2nd is the projected date where hospital resources will be back to pre-COVID status. I am not suggesting that a switch will flip and we will be back to normal. I still maintain that we will never be normal just like going to a sporting event last year was way different than going to one before 9/11. I think it is likely to be stages of things opening up. And we are still going to have to manage the likely 2nd wave of COVID this fall. Still uncertainty - but my optimism is pretty high. And this is from someone that has been mostly shut in my house for 3 weeks and has taken some extreme precautions while still living in an extremely low density county that has only had 1 person test positive for the virus. This weekend - most people I talked to were 'scared' and more pessimistic, while I was seeing stats that made me much more optimistic. I guess it relates to which stats and prior expectations... I’m an eternal optimist too and I think there’s a chance we’ll be back to semi-normal (or some kind of new normal) by fall. Major League Baseball is talking about resuming play sometime in may (all in the Phoenix area and at least initially with no fans). I do think it will probably change summer classes and camps for volleyball, as most schools may make decisions rather soon and err on the side of caution. My one daughter’s east coast school has said summer classes will be online but is waiting til after April 14 to decide on canceling scheduled summer camps. My other daughter’s pac-12 school has not yet announced re either. I’m expecting summer classes to be online but I don’t know if camps will happen, which is a big hit in revenue and recruiting but everyone seems to be in the same boat.
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Post by Hawk Attack on Apr 8, 2020 15:21:25 GMT -5
Women’s volleyball is happening, regardless of whether the season starts on time or it’s postponed.
It is men’s volleyball that is at significant risk of not having a 2021 season.
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Post by Friday on Apr 8, 2020 15:43:25 GMT -5
Several colleges have already cancelled summer camps. Will be interesting to see when they allow students back on campus.
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Post by jayj79 on Apr 8, 2020 16:19:16 GMT -5
Is sneezing in public going to be considered very taboo? how does one prevent an involuntary action?
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Post by badgerbreath on Apr 8, 2020 16:25:24 GMT -5
I teach at an Eastern School. All classes are on-line this summer. I had to review syllabi for courses that shifted. We have 4 huge field hospitals being build on campus near the gym. That may color my viewpoint on the matter.
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Post by Wolfgang on Apr 8, 2020 16:34:32 GMT -5
I have some issues with online classes, but my biggest issue will be labs. Students don't have frogs and pigs at home to dissect, nor the right tools. In chemistry, students don't have equipment, chemicals, and instruments at home to conduct experiments. Engineering students don't have oscilloscopes at home. Communications students don't have a studio with video cameras and such to play with.
My brother and sister are professors at their respective universities (wow...where did I go wrong? LOL!) and they've both had to convert their lab courses into virtual labs (teacher conducts experiment or dissection, while students watch and take notes). Other lab courses had to be converted into non-lab courses. This really shortchanges students' education.
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Post by wonderwarthog79 on Apr 8, 2020 16:47:38 GMT -5
Is sneezing in public going to be considered very taboo? how does one prevent an involuntary action? You can suppress or at least minimize the effects of a sneeze, but the real threat with this disease is coughing. A friend was annoyed that people ignored distancing in public, so she coughed a little bit. Everybody scattered.
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Post by Wolfgang on Apr 8, 2020 17:01:09 GMT -5
In the beginning in February, I went out sort of recklessly because I wanted to catch the virus and build up an immunity. (This was before we learned that immunity may not be possible.) So, I'm pretty sure I have/had it. I have since been walking around with my homemade face mask because I'm more worried about giving it to others than catching it from someone (because I'm pretty sure I have/had it).
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Post by saywhatnow on Apr 8, 2020 17:08:52 GMT -5
I have some issues with online classes, but my biggest issue will be labs. Students don't have frogs and pigs at home to dissect, nor the right tools. In chemistry, students don't have equipment, chemicals, and instruments at home to conduct experiments. Engineering students don't have oscilloscopes at home. Communications students don't have a studio with video cameras and such to play with. My brother and sister are professors at their respective universities (wow...where did I go wrong? LOL!) and they've both had to convert their lab courses into virtual labs (teacher conducts experiment or dissection, while students watch and take notes). Other lab courses had to be converted into non-lab courses. This really shortchanges students' education. Had a player last year do summer research on how to conduct science labs virtually online. It was quite innovative. I am also concerned for my players that have impending internships this summer whether on campus or not.
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Post by n00b on Apr 8, 2020 17:15:32 GMT -5
It is men’s volleyball that is at significant risk of not having a 2021 season. Why is that?
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Post by noblesol on Apr 8, 2020 17:23:10 GMT -5
If a body had it and defeated it without treatment, with symptoms or without, then that body had or developed immunity. The unknown is how long will that immunity last, and is it complete immunity with the virus reduced to undetectable/in-transmissible levels and you never get sick with it again, or is it partial immunity where the body can win bouts with the disease but can be reinfected again and be infectious again. Complete immunity would be great, but partial immunity among many in the herd I believe is still a big positive. Hopefully we have a good answer by this summer.
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