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Post by n00b on Apr 7, 2020 21:26:10 GMT -5
I think everything will be able to be up and running by that second week in August for teams to report.
That being said, I wouldn’t be surprised to see massive scheduling changes due to the financial impact. The minimum number of matches is 19. I bet we see teams a lot closer to that number than the 28-30 that we’re used to seeing.
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Post by Badger Alum on Apr 7, 2020 21:50:00 GMT -5
I got something from our club today that is talking about the time (unknown) when they re-open and things will be different. The analogy was 9/11 airports. How airports looked and functioned one way before 9/11 and how they changed significantly after 9/11. They anticipate the same concept will change for crowds at sporting events once things do re-open. They said the new "normal" once things open up will likely mean all spectators will be required to wear masks. Strange to think about what the new normal is once things do open up.
I do know this stay at home order is absolutely killing small businesses.
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Post by Brutus Buckeye on Apr 7, 2020 22:05:00 GMT -5
Oh man, if you had to have an empty seat or two between each spectator, that'd be a dream come true for me.
Often they sell me a seat that is wedged in between a pair of unwashed people that have to shop while riding around in a Rascal.
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Post by mervinswerved on Apr 7, 2020 22:41:46 GMT -5
I think everything will be able to be up and running by that second week in August for teams to report. That being said, I wouldn’t be surprised to see massive scheduling changes due to the financial impact. The minimum number of matches is 19. I bet we see teams a lot closer to that number than the 28-30 that we’re used to seeing. I think that's incredibly optimistic. I'm not bullish on campuses being open come August, let alone ready to allow practices to occur.
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Post by jayj79 on Apr 8, 2020 0:10:46 GMT -5
In theory - would a football/volleyball/baseball player in August be at more risk than the grocery store worker today? I don't think most grocery store workers are tackling people or being tackled (though some of those toilet paper hoarders are crazy, so maybe it does happen some)
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Post by jayj79 on Apr 8, 2020 0:54:31 GMT -5
Until there is a vaccine I have a hard time seeing large group events and sports taking place. I don't think we will be in "safer at home" forever (except for the Idiots Out Walking Around in IOWA, who don't have one), but group assembly and close contact is going to be a hard sell. crazy that some states (well, one) insisted on having an election when the pandemic was in full effect, rather than postponing it.
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Post by n00b on Apr 8, 2020 0:56:16 GMT -5
I think everything will be able to be up and running by that second week in August for teams to report. That being said, I wouldn’t be surprised to see massive scheduling changes due to the financial impact. The minimum number of matches is 19. I bet we see teams a lot closer to that number than the 28-30 that we’re used to seeing. I think that's incredibly optimistic. I'm not bullish on campuses being open come August, let alone ready to allow practices to occur. I guess that's possible out of an abundance of caution, but the IHME models (which seem to be the most widely used and referenced), project 0 deaths per day in the US by June 19th. covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
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Post by wonderwarthog79 on Apr 8, 2020 0:58:42 GMT -5
Yes, many small businesses (and large ones) are suffering from the stay at home orders, but the virus is absolutely killing...people.
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Post by jcvball22 on Apr 8, 2020 1:07:25 GMT -5
I think that's incredibly optimistic. I'm not bullish on campuses being open come August, let alone ready to allow practices to occur. I guess that's possible out of an abundance of caution, but the IHME models (which seem to be the most widely used and referenced), project 0 deaths per day in the US by June 19th. covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-americaExcept right at the top of that model it says: "Assuming full social distancing through May 2020".... We aren't even close to that right now.
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Post by n00b on Apr 8, 2020 2:29:13 GMT -5
Except right at the top of that model it says: "Assuming full social distancing through May 2020".... We aren't even close to that right now. Whatever we’re doing is working. That national projection dropped by like 30,000 deaths over the weekend.
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Post by joetrinsey on Apr 8, 2020 6:51:59 GMT -5
Except right at the top of that model it says: "Assuming full social distancing through May 2020".... We aren't even close to that right now.
Although in theory, lack of social distancing will speed up the pandemic, which means the peak will come earlier and the recovery* will come faster. Of course, at the unwise cost of a massive increase in deaths.
(*This also assumes some degree of post-recovery immunity, which seems likely but unclear.)
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Post by gibbyb1 on Apr 8, 2020 7:14:34 GMT -5
I got something from our club today that is talking about the time (unknown) when they re-open and things will be different. The analogy was 9/11 airports. How airports looked and functioned one way before 9/11 and how they changed significantly after 9/11. They anticipate the same concept will change for crowds at sporting events once things do re-open. They said the new "normal" once things open up will likely mean all spectators will be required to wear masks. Strange to think about what the new normal is once things do open up. I do know this stay at home order is absolutely killing small businesses. I know that this stay at home order is saving lives
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Post by Wiswell on Apr 8, 2020 7:59:12 GMT -5
Until there is a vaccine I have a hard time seeing large group events and sports taking place. I don't think we will be in "safer at home" forever (except for the Idiots Out Walking Around in IOWA, who don't have one), but group assembly and close contact is going to be a hard sell. crazy that some states (well, one) insisted on having an election when the pandemic was in full effect, rather than postponing it. Blame the legislature for that one. I didn't pick the ones in charge of that.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Apr 8, 2020 8:14:41 GMT -5
Except right at the top of that model it says: "Assuming full social distancing through May 2020".... We aren't even close to that right now. Whatever we’re doing is working. That national projection dropped by like 30,000 deaths over the weekend. I looked at this yesterday and they were projecting 80K deaths and this morning it is down to 60K. I think they were over 200K not that long ago. looking at the stats coming through the COVID Tracking Project (I look at this every day for each state) - it was looking like things are improving very quickly late last week and over the weekend despite seeing increases in deaths (that are the result of things done 4 weeks ago). What this country has done over the last 3 weeks has been working and my optimism for the upcoming season is much higher today than a couple weeks ago. Looking at Colorado - today is their projected peak in hospital resources. May 2nd is the projected date where hospital resources will be back to pre-COVID status. I am not suggesting that a switch will flip and we will be back to normal. I still maintain that we will never be normal just like going to a sporting event last year was way different than going to one before 9/11. I think it is likely to be stages of things opening up. And we are still going to have to manage the likely 2nd wave of COVID this fall. Still uncertainty - but my optimism is pretty high. And this is from someone that has been mostly shut in my house for 3 weeks and has taken some extreme precautions while still living in an extremely low density county that has only had 1 person test positive for the virus. This weekend - most people I talked to were 'scared' and more pessimistic, while I was seeing stats that made me much more optimistic. I guess it relates to which stats and prior expectations...
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Post by jcvball22 on Apr 8, 2020 10:13:58 GMT -5
Except right at the top of that model it says: "Assuming full social distancing through May 2020".... We aren't even close to that right now. Although in theory, lack of social distancing will speed up the pandemic, which means the peak will come earlier and the recovery* will come faster. Of course, at the unwise cost of a massive increase in deaths. (*This also assumes some degree of post-recovery immunity, which seems likely but unclear.)
As of this morning, that same site now says the peak in deaths will be in 4 days and peak resource usage will be in 3 days. Given the current state of things, social distancing still not occurring, and a huge swath of the country still doing whatever they want, I cannot imagine we are going to be anywhere near that.
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