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Post by ironhammer on Jan 24, 2021 20:08:02 GMT -5
Polls are showing a majority of Japanese not willing to host the Olympics while the Covid pandemic is still raging in the country. Yet there is great political pressure on the Japanese government to have the Olympics as planned. Their contracts with sponsors mean they will have to pay hefty penalties in the event of cancellation. The political dimension also factors in here. The government have staked their credibility in hosting an Olympics. Nor do they want their rival China to host the first Olympics after the pandemic with the Winter games in 2022. The IOC also would likely not be keen to grant any future Olympics to Japan if they cancel this one. All that raises the question, how will a 2021 Tokyo Olympics take place under Covid?
Now the NBA had a bubble last season, and no one got infected under the bubble. But that was a domestic league and much smaller in scale compared to the Olympics. And as the tennis major Australian Open has revealed, when there are positive cases, it can throw the whole tournament into turmoil. So what sort of operation or measures are required for the Olympics to work under these conditions?
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Post by rainbowbadger on Jan 24, 2021 20:47:22 GMT -5
For starters, no spectators - At least, none from outside the country.
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Post by Wiswell on Jan 24, 2021 20:57:17 GMT -5
Step 2, athletes come in two weeks early and have a quarantine village. Covid testing daily. Workers are quarantined two weeks before they show up at the village.
It all sounds like a nightmare logistically.
And the vaccination route is tough. World class athlete may be reluctant before Olympics to take it, because even a day or two of side effects would effect performance later.
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Post by n00b on Jan 24, 2021 21:00:21 GMT -5
If Tokyo turns it down, I’m sure Texas is willing and able to host on a moment’s notice.
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Post by Reach on Jan 24, 2021 21:07:28 GMT -5
There is no reason Tokyo can't run a safe olympics. There is no country more organized for such things. Just make the whole thing a big bubble with lots and lots of testing. If they can run tennis tournaments and professional league all over, including in Japan, then I don't see what's so different. Obviously, NO spectators.
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Post by Reach on Jan 24, 2021 21:08:01 GMT -5
If Tokyo turns it down, I’m sure Texas is willing and able to host on a moment’s notice. A 3 hour flight away and Beijing will be ready to host in no time.
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Post by ironhammer on Jan 24, 2021 21:38:36 GMT -5
There is no reason Tokyo can't run a safe olympics. There is no country more organized for such things. Just make the whole thing a big bubble with lots and lots of testing. If they can run tennis tournaments and professional league all over, including in Japan, then I don't see what's so different. Obviously, NO spectators. I hope you are right. But the bubble were for smaller more local domestic leagues. It has never been tried on a scale like the Olympics with foreign athletes from all over the world.
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Post by blastingsand on Jan 24, 2021 21:42:26 GMT -5
There is no reason Tokyo can't run a safe olympics. There is no country more organized for such things. Just make the whole thing a big bubble with lots and lots of testing. If they can run tennis tournaments and professional league all over, including in Japan, then I don't see what's so different. Obviously, NO spectators. I hope you are right. But the bubble were for smaller more local domestic leagues. It has never been tried on a scale like the Olympics with foreign athletes from all over the world. So far tennis was able to make it work in two slams so far (pending a 3rd). With that said, not to the scale of the Olympics
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Post by Reach on Jan 24, 2021 22:05:31 GMT -5
If anyone can do it, it’ll be the Japanese. Have faith. I think this is nothing more than a news story.
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Post by saywhatnow on Jan 25, 2021 0:03:43 GMT -5
The economics of hosting the Olympics in a non-pandemic stricken year is hard enough on a city/country’s economy despite how hard they try to sell it. See SLC, Athens etc.. How much is the IOC and other countries giving Tokyo to pull this off during a pandemic with multiple variants at play. They’ve already invested a ton of money so to do so without any fans or tourists will not help their economy or recoup their investment. There will be fans especially for outdoor events. Just take a look at the NFL playoffs and the upcoming Super Bowl (a lot of healthcare workers). Not saying any of this is right, but they are probably looking at all possibilities to have some semblance of fans at their outdoor events even if there are only domestic fans.
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Post by werka on Jan 25, 2021 1:47:37 GMT -5
It better happen. USAWNVT will be claiming it’s first Au.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 25, 2021 2:43:02 GMT -5
If Tokyo turns it down, I’m sure Texas is willing and able to host on a moment’s notice. A 3 hour flight away and Beijing will be ready to host in no time. No one does lockdowns better than China. LOL!
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Post by cubbypike on Jan 25, 2021 7:29:49 GMT -5
Which would be better? Bring them all to a bubble and contain them all at the same time OR bring them in waves over an expanded period of time?
My initial thought is bring them all in together but I also see value in smaller, more isolated bubbles (by sport or arena use), in an expanded form.
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Post by ironhammer on Jan 25, 2021 9:22:08 GMT -5
If anyone can do it, it’ll be the Japanese. Have faith. I think this is nothing more than a news story. True, the Japanese are known for their management and administative prowess. However, there are exceptions. And the pandemic's scale and impact has been unprecedented. So I do have fears about Japan's ability to host the Olympics as planned.
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Post by ironhammer on Jan 25, 2021 9:41:40 GMT -5
And this is worrying: www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-japan-vaccines/japan-likely-to-hit-covid-19-herd-immunity-in-october-months-after-olympics-researcher-idUSKBN29U0F2Japan is likely to achieve herd immunity to COVID-19 through mass inoculations only months after the planned Tokyo Olympics, even though it has locked in the biggest quantity of vaccines in Asia, according to a London-based forecaster.That would be a blow to Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga who has pledged to have enough shots for the populace by the middle of 2021, as it trails most major economies in starting COVID-19 inoculations.
“Japan looks to be quite late in the game,” Rasmus Bech Hansen, the founder of British research firm Airfinity, told Reuters. “They’re dependent on importing many (vaccines) from the U.S. And at the moment, it doesn’t seem very likely they will get very large quantities of for instance, the Pfizer vaccine.”
Hansen said Japan will not reach a 75% inoculation rate, a benchmark for herd immunity, until around October, about two months after the close of the Summer Games.
Japan has arranged to buy 314 million doses from Pfizer, Moderna Inc and AstraZeneca Plc, and that would be more than enough for its population of 126 million.But problems seen in vaccine rollouts elsewhere stir doubt that Japan will get those supplies on time.
Taro Kono, Japan’s vaccine programme chief, said last week it would begin its first shots in February, starting with 10,000 medical workers, but he walked back on a goal to secure enough vaccine supplies by June.
Japan is particularly vulnerable because its initial inoculation plan is dependent on Pfizer doses, which are at risk of being taken back by U.S. authorities to fight the pandemic there.
“There simply aren’t enough vaccines for all the countries that Pfizer made agreements with,” Hansen said.
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