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Post by akbar on Jul 9, 2021 17:10:28 GMT -5
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Post by bbg95 on Jul 9, 2021 17:19:14 GMT -5
They have also posted the odds for women's volleyball (and a lot of other sports for those interested): China +255 Italy +255 Serbia +300 USA +300 Brazil +1000 Turkey +3100 Russia +3500 Japan +5000 D. Republic +8000 S. Korea +40000 Argentina +600000 Kenya +900000 |
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Post by Reach on Jul 10, 2021 12:16:35 GMT -5
They have also posted the odds for women's volleyball (and a lot of other sports for those interested): China +255 Italy +255 Serbia +300 USA +300 Brazil +1000 Turkey +3100 Russia +3500 Japan +5000 D. Republic +8000 S. Korea +40000 Argentina +600000 Kenya +900000 I agreed with everything except China should be higher obvi |
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Post by bbg95 on Jul 10, 2021 14:14:50 GMT -5
They have also posted the odds for women's volleyball (and a lot of other sports for those interested): China +255 Italy +255 Serbia +300 USA +300 Brazil +1000 Turkey +3100 Russia +3500 Japan +5000 D. Republic +8000 S. Korea +40000 Argentina +600000 Kenya +900000 I agreed with everything except China should be higher obvi I don't disagree, but betting odds are often more of a reflection of who the public is betting on than who the oddsmakers actually think will win. |
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Post by huskersrule95 on Jul 10, 2021 21:16:53 GMT -5
Some pretty big movement in last couple weeks. No odds right now for Dominican Republic for today
June 24th Odds according to Bovada
China +250
Italy +250
Serbia +300
USA +300
Brazil +1000
Russia +1600
Turkey +3500
Japan +5000
Dominican Republic +10000
South Korea +50000
Argentina +100000
Kenya +100000
July 10th according to Bovada
China +210
USA +250
Brazil +450
Italy +600
Serbia +600
Russia +1400
Turkey +2200
Japan +3300
South Korea +15000
Argentina +50000
Kenya +100000
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 10, 2021 21:22:14 GMT -5
Would seem the performance of Italy and Serbia in their friendlies had an impact on the odds. China sure seems like the clear favorite at this point based on what I have seen.
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Post by bbg95 on Jul 10, 2021 22:23:08 GMT -5
Some pretty big movement in last couple weeks. No odds right now for Dominican Republic for today June 24th Odds according to Bovada China +250 Italy +250 Serbia +300 USA +300 Brazil +1000 Russia +1600 Turkey +3500 Japan +5000 Dominican Republic +10000 South Korea +50000 Argentina +100000 Kenya +100000 July 10th according to Bovada China +210 USA +250 Brazil +450 Italy +600 Serbia +600 Russia +1400 Turkey +2200 Japan +3300 South Korea +15000 Argentina +50000 Kenya +100000 Based on Bovada's updated odds, the teams now have the following implied probability odds of winning gold: China - 32.26% USA - 28.57% Brazil - 18.18% Italy - 14.29% Serbia - 14.29% Russia - 6.67% Turkey - 4.35% Japan - 2.94% S. Korea - 0.66% Argentina - 0.20% Kenya - 0.10% What this means (from what I understand--I don't gamble much) is that if you think any of these teams have a better chance of winning gold than their implied probability odds indicate (e.g. if you think China has, say, a 40% chance to win instead of 32.26%), this is an opportunity for value. |
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Post by bbg95 on Jul 10, 2021 22:33:27 GMT -5
Here are Bovada's odds for the men's tournament, along with their implied probability odds to win gold:
Poland +175 - 36.36%
Brazil +300 - 25%
France +450 - 18.18%
Russia +550 - 15.38%
USA +600 - 14.29%
Italy +850 - 10.53%
Argentina +4000 - 2.44%
Iran +4000 - 2.44%
Canada +7000 - 1.41%
Japan +8000 - 1.23%
Tunisia +150000 - 0.07%
Venezuela +200000 - 0.05%
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Post by CAI BIN MUST GO on Jul 10, 2021 23:07:31 GMT -5
Some pretty big movement in last couple weeks. No odds right now for Dominican Republic for today June 24th Odds according to Bovada China +250 Italy +250 Serbia +300 USA +300 Brazil +1000 Russia +1600 Turkey +3500 Japan +5000 Dominican Republic +10000 South Korea +50000 Argentina +100000 Kenya +100000 July 10th according to Bovada China +210 USA +250 Brazil +450 Italy +600 Serbia +600 Russia +1400 Turkey +2200 Japan +3300 South Korea +15000 Argentina +50000 Kenya +100000 they put so much weight on those friendlies... |
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Post by bbg95 on Jul 10, 2021 23:39:53 GMT -5
Some pretty big movement in last couple weeks. No odds right now for Dominican Republic for today June 24th Odds according to Bovada China +250 Italy +250 Serbia +300 USA +300 Brazil +1000 Russia +1600 Turkey +3500 Japan +5000 Dominican Republic +10000 South Korea +50000 Argentina +100000 Kenya +100000 July 10th according to Bovada China +210 USA +250 Brazil +450 Italy +600 Serbia +600 Russia +1400 Turkey +2200 Japan +3300 South Korea +15000 Argentina +50000 Kenya +100000 they put so much weight on those friendlies... To be fair, it's possible that the oddsmakers are just reacting to bets coming in on China, the US, and Brazil, along with less money coming in on Serbia and Italy. Granted, if Serbia and Italy had looked better in the friendlies, more bets would likely be coming in on them than they are now. Brazil especially has moved a lot, so I would guess that quite a few pro-Brazil betters have made wagers on them in the last few weeks. |
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Post by gobruins on Jul 11, 2021 5:46:22 GMT -5
Some pretty big movement in last couple weeks. No odds right now for Dominican Republic for today June 24th Odds according to Bovada China +250 Italy +250 Serbia +300 USA +300 Brazil +1000 Russia +1600 Turkey +3500 Japan +5000 Dominican Republic +10000 South Korea +50000 Argentina +100000 Kenya +100000 July 10th according to Bovada China +210 USA +250 Brazil +450 Italy +600 Serbia +600 Russia +1400 Turkey +2200 Japan +3300 South Korea +15000 Argentina +50000 Kenya +100000 Based on Bovada's updated odds, the teams now have the following implied probability odds of winning gold: China - 32.26% USA - 28.57% Brazil - 18.18% Italy - 14.29% Serbia - 14.29% Russia - 6.67% Turkey - 4.35% Japan - 2.94% S. Korea - 0.66% Argentina - 0.20% Kenya - 0.10% What this means (from what I understand--I don't gamble much) is that if you think any of these teams have a better chance of winning gold than their implied probability odds indicate (e.g. if you think China has, say, a 40% chance to win instead of 32.26%), this is an opportunity for value. The problem with your "implied probability" is that the total percentage of all 12 teams is over 122.5%. The additional 22.5% is the house edge (in bookmaker terms called "the vigorish", or "vig" for short). If you want to find the true probability of winning, you need to scale back the percentages to 100% total. |
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Post by n00b on Jul 11, 2021 15:30:55 GMT -5
Based on Bovada's updated odds, the teams now have the following implied probability odds of winning gold: China - 32.26% USA - 28.57% Brazil - 18.18% Italy - 14.29% Serbia - 14.29% Russia - 6.67% Turkey - 4.35% Japan - 2.94% S. Korea - 0.66% Argentina - 0.20% Kenya - 0.10% What this means (from what I understand--I don't gamble much) is that if you think any of these teams have a better chance of winning gold than their implied probability odds indicate (e.g. if you think China has, say, a 40% chance to win instead of 32.26%), this is an opportunity for value. The problem with your "implied probability" is that the total percentage of all 12 teams is over 122.5%. The additional 22.5% is the house edge (in bookmaker terms called "the vigorish", or "vig" for short). If you want to find the true probability of winning, you need to scale back the percentages to 100% total. Yes and no. Yes, if you want the true chances of a team winning a tournament. But his final conclusion is correct. If you think China is truly 40% to win the tournament, you should bet them at +210. |
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Post by bbg95 on Jul 11, 2021 20:55:55 GMT -5
The problem with your "implied probability" is that the total percentage of all 12 teams is over 122.5%. The additional 22.5% is the house edge (in bookmaker terms called "the vigorish", or "vig" for short). If you want to find the true probability of winning, you need to scale back the percentages to 100% total. Yes and no. Yes, if you want the true chances of a team winning a tournament. But his final conclusion is correct. If you think China is truly 40% to win the tournament, you should bet them at +210. Thanks. Yeah, I thought I understood what implied probability meant from what I had read, but as I said, I'm not an experienced gambler. I did some more reading and I think this article is extremely informative on the entire subject of how to find value in sports betting. |
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Post by thebaytocsulb on Jul 13, 2021 18:26:13 GMT -5
USA men's opening game line is currently Usa -110 v France -110
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Post by akbar on Jul 13, 2021 19:51:04 GMT -5
What is the Covid Factor over/under?
I mean it already hit before the games even started.
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