Fall 2021 Pre-Season Bracketology

[trojansc]

Fall 2021 Pre-Season Bracketology (8/18) 

Notes below, please avoid quoting entire original post. I will answer any questions

Region 1

(1) Texas vs. Jackson State
Texas State vs. Houston

(16) Penn State vs. Fairfield
Washington State vs. VCU

(8) BYU vs. Weber State
Utah vs. Boise State

(9) Purdue vs. Samford
Southern California vs. Wright State

Region 4

(4) Florida vs. Florida Gulf Coast
UCF vs. Florida State

(13) Oregon vs. American
Arkansas vs. Hawaii

(5) Nebraska vs. Winthrop
Creighton vs. Kansas

(12) Louisville vs. Howard
Western Kentucky vs. Illinois

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Region 3

(3) Pittsburgh vs. Cornell
Michigan vs. Towson

(14) Minnesota vs. South Dakota
Marquette vs. Northern Iowa

(6) Washington vs. Sacred Heart
Tennessee vs. Dayton

(11) Kentucky vs. Morehead State
Ohio State vs. Georgia Tech

Region 2

(2) Wisconsin vs. Bowling Green
Colorado vs. Notre Dame

(15) Stanford vs. New Mexico State
LSU vs. Pepperdine

(7) UCLA vs. UMBC
UNLV vs. San Diego

(10) Baylor vs. Texas A&M Corpus-Christi
Rice vs. South Carolina

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JUST MISSED a SEED: Ohio State, Washington State, Southern California, Rice, Western Kentucky, Creighton, Marquette, UCF

LAST 8 IN: Dayton, Houston, Arkansas, South Carolina, Kansas, Colorado, Boise State, Florida State

CONSIDERED FOR A TOURNAMENT BID in no particular order: Cal Poly, Loyola Marymount, Iowa State, Kansas State, Arizona, Northwestern, Tulane, SMU, St. John's, Xavier, Wyoming, Georgia, Texas A&M, Arizona State, West Virginia, Syracuse, North Carolina, Long Beach State

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Comments/Disclaimers/Thoughts:

- I usually don't put together a bracket this early, but, it's what people seem to like. I like to focus on conferences and potentials instead at this point, but, this is a quick projection of what it could look like. Various factors taken into account in this prediction, including RPI scheduling, various resources even including some here on VT such as conference threads/opinions/polls/etc, talent/transfer projection, and some projection mixed with randomization. Don't take this too seriously. It's like a pre-season poll. There are realistically placed teams geographically though, so this is still a bracket that could look very similar to the NCAA's Final. I also do not do this as if I am submitting a T25 ranking. This is more complicated. I also do not do this again until around half-way through the season, so, just enjoy it. I will discuss a few examples that will probably be questioned:

- Pittsburgh is probably going to be the hottest topic of discussion. So, to explain one decision, Why do I like Pittsburgh so much? Well, they don't lose anything, add more talent, and have probably my favorite non-conference schedule. Look at the non-P5 teams they scheduled: BYU, Rice, Morehead State, High Point, Bowling Green, and Marshall. All of those teams are *excellent* RPI choices. Then, they also add Baylor, Washington State, Tennessee, and South Carolina. This as a whole is a superb schedule. Overall, I think Pitt has a ton of RPI potential and could mostly run through the ACC even allowing for a couple hiccups and still nab a Top 4 seed. 

- The seedings will likely have a greater variation than the at-large bids. The last seed spots are hard -- and any of the 10 additional potential seeds will not be a surprise. Watch out for a mid-major who overachieves in the non-conference and then steamrolls their weaker conference to steal one of the seeds.

- The subregional matchups could also be very realistic despite the seeding being far off from how this ends up. For example, Creighton vs. Kansas could be a Nebraska subregional matchup whether Nebraska is the #3 seed or the #14 seed. With not seeding after the top 16, geography plays a huge factor and the RPI balance becomes out of whack. Same thing for UCF vs. Florida State, this will probably be a subregional matchup in Gainesville whether Florida is the #2 seed or the #15 seed (though Georgia Tech could replace FSU, theoretically as well). Now, look at Washington and Oregon's subregionals. None of those teams are drive-ins, so, that's just how the bracket played out on *this* projection. There's not much worth there. Depending on what happens in the SEC, I think they could have a LOT of teams flying west if they max out their at-large bids and do well in the non-conference. 

- I threw in one-bid stealer, VCU and Dayton. VCU wins the A-10 Tournament but Dayton did enough in the non-conference to get an at-large and ran through the A-10. Though an at-large for VCU isn't out of the question, they have some opportunities in the non-conference.

- The PAC-12 is a mess. UCLA and Washington are my favorites to win the PAC, but there's little separation at the top. I think Oregon, Stanford, Washington State, and USC will all challenge as well. That said, I don't like UCLA and Washington's non-conference at all. Oregon, Stanford, USC, and WSU's non-conference schedules are superior. I could see a very jumbled top of the PAC and teams who are better in RPI be worse off in conference standing. It could be very, very messy. I even thought about just putting all the seeded PAC teams next to each other because it could just be that wacky and I doubt anyone will run away, so the PAC could miss out on a top 4 seed. Stanford has top 4 seed potential with that ridiculous schedule or could come out of the non-conference with an abysmal record.

- I think the Big Ten will have some parity and potentially beating each other up at the Top among Nebraska/PSU/Wisconsin/Minnesota/Purdue, but after that, I see that grouping of teams being upset less than the others that we will see in the PAC. I think this means the Big Ten will max out their seeds better than the PAC but the PAC will likely have more at-large bids.

[ay2013]

This is what happens when the fantasy draft ends weeks before the season starts. trojansc gets too much time on his hands

[ay2013]

I don't have an issue with Pitt being a projected top 4 seed, but I think a sleeper top 4 seed is BYU. RPI SOS notwithstanding (we'll know more after a few weeks of non-conference), I think they have a *decent* chance of going into the tournament undefeated. If Koerber and Gneiting can produce anywhere close to what we've seen in the past, there are very few on their schedule that can match BYU.

[trojansc]

Aug 18, 2021 1:56:27 GMT -5 ay2013 said:

I don't have an issue with Pitt being a projected top 4 seed, but I think a sleeper top 4 seed is BYU. RPI SOS notwithstanding (we'll know more after a few weeks of non-conference), I think they have a *decent* chance of going into the tournament undefeated. If Koerber and Gneiting can produce anywhere close to what we've seen in the past, there are very few on their schedule that can match BYU.

BYU is a hard one for me. They have three Top 50 teams in their non-conference: UNLV, Utah, and Pittsburgh. If they don't beat Pitt, they'll have to hope UNLV and Utah have good seasons. UNLV should be at worst 3rd in the Mountain West and Utah is a question mark but I still think they'll be in the Top 50.

Now, the WCC? I think Pepperdine and San Diego are going to be down. LMU might be up. This is good for them running through the conference, but how many significant wins will they get out of it?

I'm worried they won't have enough to sell. They lost one match, had THREE t25 non-conference wins, AND beat the #1 overall team in 2018 and still that was barely good enough for the 4th seed. There could be a potential chance that running the table still wouldn't even be good enough for a Top 4 seed! We'll have to see.

[ay2013]

Aug 18, 2021 2:06:38 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Aug 18, 2021 1:56:27 GMT -5 ay2013 said:

I don't have an issue with Pitt being a projected top 4 seed, but I think a sleeper top 4 seed is BYU. RPI SOS notwithstanding (we'll know more after a few weeks of non-conference), I think they have a *decent* chance of going into the tournament undefeated. If Koerber and Gneiting can produce anywhere close to what we've seen in the past, there are very few on their schedule that can match BYU.

BYU is a hard one for me. They have three Top 50 teams in their non-conference: UNLV, Utah, and Pittsburgh. If they don't beat Pitt, they'll have to hope UNLV and Utah have good seasons. UNLV should be at worst 3rd in the Mountain West and Utah is a question mark but I still think they'll be in the Top 50.

Now, the WCC? I think Pepperdine and San Diego are going to be down. LMU might be up. This is good for them running through the conference, but how many significant wins will they get out of it?

I'm worried they won't have enough to sell. They lost one match, had THREE t25 non-conference wins, AND beat the #1 overall team in 2018 and still that was barely good enough for the 4th seed. There could be a potential chance that running the table still wouldn't even be good enough for a Top 4 seed! We'll have to see.

Oh I think that's completely legit. IMO BYU would actually have to go undefeated with that schedule, I'm just saying that I think that they *could*, giving the committee a big decision to make.

[bluepenquin]

This would be kind of cool to keep up. I would suggest adding # of teams by conference.

I am amazed that you are able to put together schedules in you mind. And for me - w/o Pablo for last year, it is really difficult for me. I will be doing RPI Futures, but I don't know how long it will take before Pablo ratings will have meaning.

[trojansc]

Aug 18, 2021 8:34:26 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

This would be kind of cool to keep up. I would suggest adding # of teams by conference.

I am amazed that you are able to put together schedules in you mind. And for me - w/o Pablo for last year, it is really difficult for me. I will be doing RPI Futures, but I don't know how long it will take before Pablo ratings will have meaning.

I will add in a conference summary later.

The last time I posted a pre-season Bracketology was in 2018. 24/32 predicted at-large teams did make it into the tournament. These were the teams that did not get at-large bids: (and their Final RPI is listed in parentheses).

VCU (70), NC State (86), Notre Dame (65), Kansas (46), LSU (96), Georgia (98), Auburn (108), Iowa (78)

There were only three teams that got an at-large bid that year that weren't on the 36-team "Watch List" for an at-large bid: East Tennessee State, Saint Mary's and Denver.

This year I shortened the 'watch list' to 18 teams.

[Deleted]

(5) Nebraska vs. Winthrop
Creighton vs. Kansas

[trojansc]

Aug 18, 2021 8:56:16 GMT -5 @avid said:

Creighton vs. Kansas

Creighton is also a drive-in to Minnesota (they went there last, actually!). If you believe in miracles, they could get sent to Iowa State or Kansas as well if they can somehow get a seed. Then again, Creighton of course is always in the mix for a seed themselves.

[bbg95]

Aug 18, 2021 2:06:38 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Aug 18, 2021 1:56:27 GMT -5 ay2013 said:

I don't have an issue with Pitt being a projected top 4 seed, but I think a sleeper top 4 seed is BYU. RPI SOS notwithstanding (we'll know more after a few weeks of non-conference), I think they have a *decent* chance of going into the tournament undefeated. If Koerber and Gneiting can produce anywhere close to what we've seen in the past, there are very few on their schedule that can match BYU.

BYU is a hard one for me. They have three Top 50 teams in their non-conference: UNLV, Utah, and Pittsburgh. If they don't beat Pitt, they'll have to hope UNLV and Utah have good seasons. UNLV should be at worst 3rd in the Mountain West and Utah is a question mark but I still think they'll be in the Top 50.

Now, the WCC? I think Pepperdine and San Diego are going to be down. LMU might be up. This is good for them running through the conference, but how many significant wins will they get out of it?

I'm worried they won't have enough to sell. They lost one match, had THREE t25 non-conference wins, AND beat the #1 overall team in 2018 and still that was barely good enough for the 4th seed. There could be a potential chance that running the table still wouldn't even be good enough for a Top 4 seed! We'll have to see.

I tend to agree, especially when 2018 is taken into account (and also them getting hosed with a No. 16 seed this spring). The WCC also got five teams in the tournament that year, so it wasn't like BYU didn't have any good conference wins. The only thing is that the committee may have given more weight to the McKenna Miller knee injury, as BYU was No. 1 on the committee's initial list that was released in early November. BYU had been obliterating its competition in the WCC prior to her injury and looked significantly more mortal afterward with a narrow victory over St. Mary's and getting swept by LMU.

At any rate, I think BYU will be very good, perhaps even Final Four good, but I don't think they'll go undefeated, so I don't think they'll get a top four seed. Now, if they were undefeated, would they get a top four seed? I think it's possible, but it's also dependent on the other teams across the country. If all the other top teams have five or more losses, and BYU was undefeated, then I think they would get a top four seed. But that scenario isn't particularly likely. At any rate, I'm excited to see how they do this season. I think we'll have a better idea of their potential after they play Pitt on the road.

[cyclonepower]

Aug 18, 2021 9:08:43 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Aug 18, 2021 8:56:16 GMT -5 @avid said:

Creighton vs. Kansas

Creighton is also a drive-in to Minnesota (they went there last, actually!). If you believe in miracles, they could get sent to Iowa State or Kansas as well if they can somehow get a seed. Then again, Creighton of course is always in the mix for a seed themselves.

I am cautiously optimistic for Iowa State after going to the Scrimmage last weekend, but that is more for getting back to the tournament. I think the Cyclones are going to have an early slip up or two in non-con (and it would not surprise me if they went 0-2 at KU) that would hinder any hopes of a seed. As always, I hope I'm wrong and things are better for the Clones!

[wahinefan]

Watch out for Hawaii, they could be the surprise team of the year. Very young team, with a lot of talent, but unproven. If they come together as a team, they have the talent to go very deep into the NCAA Tournament, even challenge for the NCAA Championship Title.

[BLASÉ]

Aug 18, 2021 18:57:03 GMT -5 wahinefan said:

Watch out for Hawaii, they could be the surprise team of the year. Very young team, with a lot of talent, but unproven. If they come together as a team, they have the talent to go very deep into the NCAA Tournament, even challenge for the NCAA Championship Title.

Or they could fail to make the tournament.

[jwvolley]

Aug 18, 2021 18:57:03 GMT -5 wahinefan said:

Watch out for Hawaii, they could be the surprise team of the year. Very young team, with a lot of talent, but unproven. If they come together as a team, they have the talent to go very deep into the NCAA Tournament, even challenge for the NCAA Championship Title.

Nah

[trojansc]

Aug 18, 2021 19:00:16 GMT -5 BLASÉ said:

Aug 18, 2021 18:57:03 GMT -5 wahinefan said:

Watch out for Hawaii, they could be the surprise team of the year. Very young team, with a lot of talent, but unproven. If they come together as a team, they have the talent to go very deep into the NCAA Tournament, even challenge for the NCAA Championship Title.

Or they could fail to make the tournament.

Hopefully they don't get a 'pass' for their historical presence if they are on the bubble as there were some suspicions about that a la 2018. I still think if Hawaii had a similar/equal resume to another team on the bubble next to them that they beat twice, their fans would have exploded that they were 'robbed' by the NCAA. And I do think Hawaii has been shafted before, to be fair.

I think Hawaii will probably be okay to make the tournament. They could surprise, but, are they really going to have high quality play from L and setter? Also losing JR. They have some international swagger that will give them an excellent chance to win the Big West, but let's pump the breaks on a potential NC contender.