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Post by nellynel on Dec 14, 2021 13:54:10 GMT -5
If Texas passes a 1.97 that’s probably a 3-1 Texas win. I don’t think Nebraska can count on anyone being as bad as Texas was that night. Doesn’t mean they still can’t win if opponents aren’t that bad. What those numbers show me is everyone who's faced Nebraska this postseason has had a worse than average passing night. Pitt passing around 2.05 would maybe be in range for other teams. But is that enough to win? With their offense I would say yes, not a guarantee but certainly enough to win. If the defense, serving has issues they could still lose. |
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Post by ineedajob on Dec 14, 2021 14:00:43 GMT -5
If Texas passes a 1.97 that’s probably a 3-1 Texas win. I don’t think Nebraska can count on anyone being as bad as Texas was that night. Doesn’t mean they still can’t win if opponents aren’t that bad. What those numbers show me is everyone who's faced Nebraska this postseason has had a worse than average passing night. Pitt passing around 2.05 would maybe be in range for other teams. But is that enough to win? There's no way we can say "Oh, Nebraska makes teams pass 10% worse than normal." So much of it depends on the types of serving/serve receive matchups within the game. Say Player X's most effective serve is down the line from zone5 to zone1, but the receiving team happens to have their best passer sitting there and is really good at receiving that type of serve. Another thing to consider is that Pitt runs a 6-2. While getting Texas out-of-system often meant that Texas couldn't run their MH leaving them with only one front-row attacking option, Pitt will usually still have two pin options. They're certainly not as physical as the Texas pins, but if Pitt is still able to run fast enough to make it a tough block to close, then taking away the option for Pitt to set their MH might not matter as much as it did with the other teams they've played. |
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Post by nellynel on Dec 14, 2021 14:23:37 GMT -5
What those numbers show me is everyone who's faced Nebraska this postseason has had a worse than average passing night. Pitt passing around 2.05 would maybe be in range for other teams. But is that enough to win? With their offense I would say yes, not a guarantee but certainly enough to win. If the defense, serving has issues they could still lose. I also am not sure Pitt can serve tough enough to make Nebraska pass a 1.8. |
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Post by Fight On! on Dec 14, 2021 14:57:48 GMT -5
Volleymetric passing numbers from the game (3 point scale) Texas: Logan Eggleston: 1.80 on 23 attempts Melanie Parra: 1.54 on 12 attempts Sydney Peterson: 1.36 on 21 attempts Nalani Iosia: 1.35 on 24 attempts Skylar Fields: 1.33 on 3 attempts Riley Heinrich: 0.75 on 4 attempts Nebraska: Madi Kubik: 2.09 on 34 attempts Kenzie Knuckles: 2.03 on 18 attempts Lexi Rodriguez: 1.38 on 8 attempts Keonilei Akana: 1.08 on 13 attempts Wow #1: Knuckles, who is usually disrespected in these comparisons, vs Roddy. Wow #2: Roddy having passing numbers almost identical to Iosia. Facts so often get in the way of a good narrative. Do these numbers seem accurate? How did TX receive that many more balls than NE? It wasn’t like the match was all that lopsided. |
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Post by ineedajob on Dec 14, 2021 15:05:03 GMT -5
Wow #1: Knuckles, who is usually disrespected in these comparisons, vs Roddy. Wow #2: Roddy having passing numbers almost identical to Iosia. Facts so often get in the way of a good narrative. Do these numbers seem accurate? How did TX receive that many more balls than NE? It wasn’t like the match was all that lopsided. Texas served 89 times (errored on 14) = 75 NE passes Nebraska served 97 times (errored on 8) = 89 Texas passes |
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Post by volleyaudience on Dec 14, 2021 15:06:06 GMT -5
Wow #1: Knuckles, who is usually disrespected in these comparisons, vs Roddy. Wow #2: Roddy having passing numbers almost identical to Iosia. Facts so often get in the way of a good narrative. Do these numbers seem accurate? How did TX receive that many more balls than NE? It wasn’t like the match was all that lopsided. You have a more complete list of receivers for Texas. |
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Post by FreeBall on Dec 14, 2021 15:34:01 GMT -5
Nebraska having more serves is directly related to their higher sideout % in the match. Nebraska was 55/89 for a sideout % of 61.8%. Texas was 54/97 for a sideout % of 55.7%.
There were three significant serving runs in the match. For Nebraska, Rodriguez had a run of eight serves in Set 2 and Kubik had a run of eight serves in Set 4. For Texas, O'Neal had a run of six serves in Set 4. The net difference of those serving runs is +8 in favor of Nebraska, which coincidentally is the same as the number of excess serves by Nebraska over the course of the match.
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Post by ineedajob on Dec 14, 2021 15:44:58 GMT -5
Nebraska having more serves is directly related to their higher sideout % in the match. Nebraska was 55/89 for a sideout % of 61.8%. Texas was 54/97 for a sideout % of 55.7%. There were three significant serving runs in the match. For Nebraska, Rodriguez had a run of eight serves in Set 2 and Kubik had a run of eight serves in Set 4. For Texas, O'Neal had a run of six serves in Set 4. The net difference of those serving runs is +8 in favor of Nebraska, which coincidentally is the same as the number of excess serves by Nebraska over the course of the match. That was an overly-complicated answer when there's a much simpler explanation. Nebraska won 10 more rallies during the match so they will obviously serve more. Combine that with Texas missing 6 more serves than Nebraska did, and that's why Texas had that many more serve receive opportunities. |
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Post by nellynel on Dec 14, 2021 16:46:32 GMT -5
Yes you have to also count the 6 extra passes Nebraska didn’t have to pass due to Texas’s SE differential.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 14, 2021 17:10:19 GMT -5
What those numbers show me is everyone who's faced Nebraska this postseason has had a worse than average passing night. Pitt passing around 2.05 would maybe be in range for other teams. But is that enough to win? There's no way we can say "Oh, Nebraska makes teams pass 10% worse than normal." So much of it depends on the types of serving/serve receive matchups within the game. Say Player X's most effective serve is down the line from zone5 to zone1, but the receiving team happens to have their best passer sitting there and is really good at receiving that type of serve. Another thing to consider is that Pitt runs a 6-2. While getting Texas out-of-system often meant that Texas couldn't run their MH leaving them with only one front-row attacking option, Pitt will usually still have two pin options. They're certainly not as physical as the Texas pins, but if Pitt is still able to run fast enough to make it a tough block to close, then taking away the option for Pitt to set their MH might not matter as much as it did with the other teams they've played. All true but serving can be about more than just serving the worst passer or hitting your most effective serve. A short serve can disrupt an offense even on a 3 pass. Or the plan could be to limit a setter like Shaffmaster who doesn't like balls from A1. Wisconsin served A1 even when McGraw (the best passer on the team) was there. It disrupted the connection with Samedy and Wisconsin swept. |
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Post by andrewwmic on Dec 14, 2021 17:41:20 GMT -5
Wow #1: Knuckles, who is usually disrespected in these comparisons, vs Roddy. Wow #2: Roddy having passing numbers almost identical to Iosia. Facts so often get in the way of a good narrative. Nah, that’s just a sample size problem. Her 8 passes isn’t enough to make any sort of judgment (other than showing how much Texas was trying to avoid serving her), especially when her one time being aced came on a “let” serve. This is the exact reason these little stats don't always tell the full story. They even mentioned during the broadcast how Elliot mentioned Nebraskas side out percentage when Roddy accepts serve. Clearly their game plan was to avoid her. |
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Post by ted_heise on Dec 14, 2021 22:04:59 GMT -5
Just watched the replay. Wow Nebraska freshmen are phenoms. Those freshmen are indeed phenoms. If they can consistently sustain the level of play from the regional final (or even close to it), they are likely to accomplish a lot.
Got home tonight and just watched set one again. The captioning cracks me up, giving the text from announcers as coming from "Alex" and "Missy." 
Watched sets two and three again tonight. Roddy and Kenzie doing some small dance moves in the back court while waiting for the next serve—evidence of not being at all fazed by the setting. And the first obvious throw by Logan at about 7-5 in set two—the one that gets Paul (Alex) going on the topic. The slow motion replay shows Lauren wheeling around the see just where the heck the ball went, and you can see a clear WTF coming out of her mouth. |
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Post by FrancisFrogg on Dec 15, 2021 18:04:44 GMT -5
C'mon Super Frosh. .All three of yas You have two Pin Frosh... Rodrigez is not a Frosh! I'm sorry, but the Husker Volleyball Team site bio say that Roddy is a FRESHMAN. GBR  |
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Post by hochee on Dec 15, 2021 23:24:45 GMT -5
C'mon Super Frosh. .All three of yas You have two Pin Frosh... Rodrigez is not a Frosh! true dat |
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Post by NebraskaVBfan93 on Dec 16, 2021 1:02:31 GMT -5
Those freshmen are indeed phenoms. If they can consistently sustain the level of play from the regional final (or even close to it), they are likely to accomplish a lot.
Got home tonight and just watched set one again. The captioning cracks me up, giving the text from announcers as coming from "Alex" and "Missy." Watched sets two and three again tonight. Roddy and Kenzie doing some small dance moves in the back court while waiting for the next serve—evidence of not being at all fazed by the setting. And the first obvious throw by Logan at about 7-5 in set two—the one that gets Paul (Alex) going on the topic. The slow motion replay shows Lauren wheeling around the see just where the heck the ball went, and you can see a clear WTF coming out of her mouth. The reason the call in question is an issue is that it wasn't at all consistent with how the match had been officiated to that point. Add to that, the lift they did call was far from the worst; and that goes for both teams. It was a very bad call, IMO. Am I sad it was made? Not one bit. |
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