bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 27, 2022 10:53:43 GMT -5
Louisville would have a better RPI and IMO have a much better claim and be more likely to be a regional seed than Pittsburgh. As for Pittsburgh - their final RPI would be between #3 and #5. The quick answer is they *could* be a regional seed depending on what other teams do, but I think it would be more likely that they wouldn't be one - especially if USD wins out. Have you ever seen so many teams have a realistic shot at a Top 4 seed this late in the season? By my count I see 8 with realistic chances depending on what other teams do Yes, I agree. This is why I have been saying that those 1 & 2 seeds look close to 'locked in'. In my mind - there is a rather large divide between #8 and #9 - and not really that big of a divide between #8 and #1 (although I do think Texas/Nebraska are a cut above). I think VT opinion had WI/MN as being very similar and clearly behind the other 7. I didn't and don't see it this way - although I think it is possible (not likely) for MN to get in that group.
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Post by eotexas5 on Oct 27, 2022 10:57:35 GMT -5
My question is, we know that the B1G Champ will most likely fall within the 3/4 seed. But where would the 2nd and 3rd place teams fall? It'll most likely be a combination of Wisconsin/Nebraska/Ohio State. Let's say the home teams win out in their remaining matches, that would mean Ohio State would be B1G Champs, with Wisconsin getting 2nd and Nebraska 3rd. Would it be OSU at 3, Wisconsin at 5 and Nebraska at 6?
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 27, 2022 10:58:18 GMT -5
I think Pitt would need to win out and get a little help from GT in order to snag that spot from Louisville. I don’t see the committee: 1- shutting out the winner of the Big 10 unless it’s mass chaos from here on out. 2- ignoring a San Diego team that’s done what they ask every year. Tough non conference and blemishless in conference. If I had to guess today I’d say it’s Texas->Louisville->insert B1G champ->USD. I think this is a good working plan. But, Pablo thinks there is a 40% chance Pittsburgh beats Louisville (and Pitt does have the home test against GT on the schedule). And Pablo thinks there is about a 65% chance that USD loses at least one more match this year. There is a lot that can happen and several teams that are in the mix.
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Post by madden55 on Oct 27, 2022 10:59:24 GMT -5
How locked in for a regional is Nebraska if they don’t win the conference
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Post by hornshouse23 on Oct 27, 2022 11:01:26 GMT -5
I think Pitt would need to win out and get a little help from GT in order to snag that spot from Louisville. I don’t see the committee: 1- shutting out the winner of the Big 10 unless it’s mass chaos from here on out. 2- ignoring a San Diego team that’s done what they ask every year. Tough non conference and blemishless in conference. If I had to guess today I’d say it’s Texas->Louisville->insert B1G champ->USD. I think this is a good working plan. But, Pablo thinks there is a 40% chance Pittsburgh beats Louisville (and Pitt does have the home test against GT on the schedule). And Pablo thinks there is about a 65% chance that USD loses at least one more match this year. There is a lot that can happen and several teams that are in the mix. Pablo, take a smoke break. Let Pitt have this and force the committee to sweat this out.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 27, 2022 11:04:28 GMT -5
My question is, we know that the B1G Champ will most likely fall within the 3/4 seed. But where would the 2nd and 3rd place teams fall? It'll most likely be a combination of Wisconsin/Nebraska/Ohio State. Let's say the home teams win out in their remaining matches, that would mean Ohio State would be B1G Champs, with Wisconsin getting 2nd and Nebraska 3rd. Would it be OSU at 3, Wisconsin at 5 and Nebraska at 6? Under that scenario - wouldn't it be 1. Ohio State 19-1, 2. Nebraska 18-2, 3. Wisconsin 17-3? If that was to happen - Ohio State would be a no doubt regional seed. Wisconsin would be a no doubt 2 seed (#5-8) and no telling where they ended up among the 2 seeds. Nebraska would be in play for a regional seed and would end up with a better overall seed than Wisconsin.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 27, 2022 11:06:10 GMT -5
How locked in for a regional is Nebraska if they don’t win the conference Certainly not a lock - and probably well under 50% chance would be my guess.
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Post by madden55 on Oct 27, 2022 11:17:12 GMT -5
How locked in for a regional is Nebraska if they don’t win the conference Certainly not a lock - and probably well under 50% chance would be my guess. hard to believe they do after watching them against Wisconsin and they didn’t look good agaisnt osu either but they did still pull that one off but ya gotta favor osu at home in the rematch
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Post by hornshouse23 on Oct 27, 2022 11:28:27 GMT -5
Certainly not a lock - and probably well under 50% chance would be my guess. hard to believe they do after watching them against Wisconsin and they didn’t look good agaisnt osu either but they did still pull that one off but ya gotta favor osu at home in the rematch your lips to god’s ear on that one.
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Oct 27, 2022 12:33:38 GMT -5
The one I wanted to comment on this week was the Mountain West. Utah State won a critical match on Tuesday against Boise State (a match that Pablo had Utah State as a very slight favorite). Utah State doesn't have any wins of value (I mean they beat UCLA which should be considered a decent win, but will not because of their RPI) - but their remaining schedule has some real opportunity. They have home matches coming up against UNLV and San Jose - and then have an opportunity for more quality wins in the conference tournament. San Jose State has wins over Colorado State and Utah State - and then get another chance to take out Colorado State at home next week. This could be a 4 team conference - and getting all 4 teams inside the T50 could escalate their RPI and make it more likely to happen. By the same token - UNLV is battling to get a higher seed (or at least a T32 seed). Yep. Utah State beat UCLA, UNLV beat Kansas, and Colorado State split with Colorado. I have been keeping an eye on those teams, the more that end up T50 could help the entire conference's cause. At least they can show that they did beat teams out of conference as well. Colorado State beat North Carolina and UNLV beat UTRGV, but I'm not sure how likely it is either of those end up T50. The Mountain West is hard to judge for now.
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Post by c4ndlelight on Oct 27, 2022 12:39:14 GMT -5
The one I wanted to comment on this week was the Mountain West. Utah State won a critical match on Tuesday against Boise State (a match that Pablo had Utah State as a very slight favorite). Utah State doesn't have any wins of value (I mean they beat UCLA which should be considered a decent win, but will not because of their RPI) - but their remaining schedule has some real opportunity. They have home matches coming up against UNLV and San Jose - and then have an opportunity for more quality wins in the conference tournament. San Jose State has wins over Colorado State and Utah State - and then get another chance to take out Colorado State at home next week. This could be a 4 team conference - and getting all 4 teams inside the T50 could escalate their RPI and make it more likely to happen. By the same token - UNLV is battling to get a higher seed (or at least a T32 seed). Yep. Utah State beat UCLA, UNLV beat Kansas, and Colorado State split with Colorado. I have been keeping an eye on those teams, the more that end up T50 could help the entire conference's cause. At least they can show that they did beat teams out of conference as well. Colorado State beat North Carolina and UNLV beat UTRGV, but I'm not sure how likely it is either of those end up T50. The Mountain West is hard to judge for now. I think a bid steal from the tourney is pretty likely. Also, UNLV and SJSU are drive-ins in areas that will really need them.
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Post by eotexas5 on Oct 27, 2022 12:47:57 GMT -5
My question is, we know that the B1G Champ will most likely fall within the 3/4 seed. But where would the 2nd and 3rd place teams fall? It'll most likely be a combination of Wisconsin/Nebraska/Ohio State. Let's say the home teams win out in their remaining matches, that would mean Ohio State would be B1G Champs, with Wisconsin getting 2nd and Nebraska 3rd. Would it be OSU at 3, Wisconsin at 5 and Nebraska at 6? Under that scenario - wouldn't it be 1. Ohio State 19-1, 2. Nebraska 18-2, 3. Wisconsin 17-3? If that was to happen - Ohio State would be a no doubt regional seed. Wisconsin would be a no doubt 2 seed (#5-8) and no telling where they ended up among the 2 seeds. Nebraska would be in play for a regional seed and would end up with a better overall seed than Wisconsin. Oh yes, you're right. I keep forgetting Wisconsin's loss against Minnesota. I imagine those four B1G teams will all be seeded in the Top 8 though.
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Post by hornshouse23 on Oct 27, 2022 12:56:12 GMT -5
Let’s also not forget the committee routinely ignores the last weekend. Unless they’re listening and know we’re searching them… the last two matches are going to be vital if they are in fact waiting to finalize things until all matches are played.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 27, 2022 12:58:12 GMT -5
The one I wanted to comment on this week was the Mountain West. Utah State won a critical match on Tuesday against Boise State (a match that Pablo had Utah State as a very slight favorite). Utah State doesn't have any wins of value (I mean they beat UCLA which should be considered a decent win, but will not because of their RPI) - but their remaining schedule has some real opportunity. They have home matches coming up against UNLV and San Jose - and then have an opportunity for more quality wins in the conference tournament. San Jose State has wins over Colorado State and Utah State - and then get another chance to take out Colorado State at home next week. This could be a 4 team conference - and getting all 4 teams inside the T50 could escalate their RPI and make it more likely to happen. By the same token - UNLV is battling to get a higher seed (or at least a T32 seed). Yep. Utah State beat UCLA, UNLV beat Kansas, and Colorado State split with Colorado. I have been keeping an eye on those teams, the more that end up T50 could help the entire conference's cause. At least they can show that they did beat teams out of conference as well. Colorado State beat North Carolina and UNLV beat UTRGV, but I'm not sure how likely it is either of those end up T50. The Mountain West is hard to judge for now. This one *kind* of reminds me of the Horizon a couple years ago. MWC is much better with UNLV and Colorado State - but those borderline T50 teams all got under which created new T50 wins and improved RPI. I am thinking they got 3 in that year? Seems like Utah State and San Jose may carry each other across the finish line.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 27, 2022 13:02:52 GMT -5
Let’s also not forget the committee routinely ignores the last weekend. Unless they’re listening and know we’re searching them… the last two matches are going to be vital if they are in fact waiting to finalize things until all matches are played. Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Nebraska playing each other that last weekend - not sure how they could ignore those matches. That will be interesting. Also - San Diego's last 3 matches of the year are LMU, Pepperdine, and BYU. At least the last one is just before Thanksgiving. But it will be a while before we know if San Diego can run the table in the WCC.
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