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Post by stanfordvb on Feb 1, 2023 3:32:14 GMT -5
I think you are seriously overestimating San Diego’s backcourt. yeah perhaps. I don't want to underestimate Blossom's impact here for San Diego. I know she ran a very quick offense which was critical for the teams' success. I'm not saying that another setter on the roster could have stepped in and did the same things she did, what I'm saying is that I think that San Diego had enough skilled players for a different setter to come in and San Diego have a similar amount of success as San Diego did in 2022. Other than maybe Pitt in the very first match of the season (which is a crapshoot anyway), heading into the tournament, I just don't see which teams would have a more likely shot at beating a blossom-less San Diego if they also lost their best player. I think louisville and Ohio State and pitt definitely would've still beaten them. they also easily couldve lost one of the 5 setters to lmu or flat put loss to byu. I think ur way underestimating how much better she made that team. blossom made san Diegos hitters look very good, whoever their backup setter was would not be running anything close to that offense. at all. there's a reason all those attackers garnered attention in 2022, it was almost entirely bc of blossom. and San Diego wasnt that good at passing which blossom consistently made up for. they would have one of the biggest drop offs of the top 10 teams
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Post by ay2013 on Feb 1, 2023 3:54:23 GMT -5
yeah perhaps. I don't want to underestimate Blossom's impact here for San Diego. I know she ran a very quick offense which was critical for the teams' success. I'm not saying that another setter on the roster could have stepped in and did the same things she did, what I'm saying is that I think that San Diego had enough skilled players for a different setter to come in and San Diego have a similar amount of success as San Diego did in 2022. Other than maybe Pitt in the very first match of the season (which is a crapshoot anyway), heading into the tournament, I just don't see which teams would have a more likely shot at beating a blossom-less San Diego if they also lost their best player. I think louisville and Ohio State and pitt definitely would've still beaten them. they also easily couldve lost one of the 5 setters to lmu or flat put loss to byu. I think ur way underestimating how much better she made that team. blossom made san Diegos hitters look very good, whoever their backup setter was would not be running anything close to that offense. at all. there's a reason all those attackers garnered attention in 2022, it was almost entirely bc of blossom. and San Diego wasnt that good at passing which blossom consistently made up for. they would have one of the biggest drop offs of the top 10 teams I suppose we just disagree here. Ohio State without the player you picked as their best (Podraza) *maybe* beats a Blossom-less San Diego. Ohio State without their actual best player - Londot (and her 19 kills in 3 sets hitting almost .400 in a match they actually lost) is a different story. LMU would be without Giessberger. Look, I don't disagree that Blossom made her hitters "look better", but lets not pretend that these players are chop liver but for Blossom. In 2021 San Diego didn't have Blossom and Frohling hit .300 with almost 4 kills per set. Lukes hit .237. Blossom upped that percentage to .316 and .262, respectively. That's not some massive increase for these hitters. They also added an experienced 5th year player in Edwards. This is all hypothetical, obviously, but I just think that even without Blossom, San Diego with its 3 super senior pins and super senior libero, still would have had a very good season.
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Post by babybacksets on Feb 1, 2023 4:52:01 GMT -5
I feel like an alternate way to play this game is to randomize all the players into each others’ schools and see which ones would have the biggest impact in their new imaginary one…
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Post by crosscourt3m on Feb 1, 2023 12:42:29 GMT -5
Nebraska went the entire season without setting their best player so-
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Post by stanfordvb on Feb 1, 2023 14:40:45 GMT -5
Nebraska went the entire season without setting their best player so- she wasnt much of a factor when they did... I still blame the setters for that as hord had 0 problem putting the ball away for 4 years with a good setter. crazy because that couldve turned the tables for nebraska but they never got her going in the season as a whole
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Post by bballnut90 on Feb 1, 2023 16:19:59 GMT -5
I enjoy threads like these. Agree with most of your logic too. Agree about Louisville assuming DeBeer is 100% come tournament time. Mbonu was a very solid replacement when Debeer was out. My final four is Wisconsin, Louisville, Pitt and Texas. I think Wisconsin/Texas are likely best positioned to take the crown, and Wisconsin takes it. The problem is that come tournament time, Louisville's record isn't the same. Is the expectation that Louisville, without Chaussee all season and Debeer for half the season, still wins enough/the right matches, to get a top 4 seed? Because if so, that is where I think your reasoning falters. Without that top 4 seed, their path to the final four becomes a lot more murky, and they barely escaped Oregon, playing at home, WITH Debeer and Chaussee. If every team has their top player out I still think it's quite plausible. Looking at their tough matches: San Diego-still win at home if USD is without Blossom Ohio State-I think likelihood of winning goes up if Podraza is out Kentucky-I'd bet on Louisville with a Grome-less Kentucky Stanford-they might drop this match, but I don't see it is a surefire loss Georgia Tech-Louisville wins with or without Debeer if GT doesn't have Bergmann Pitt-they likely lose the first match, 2nd match up is more of a toss up, though Louisville absolutely dominated that match I think that's enough to warrant a top 4 seed. I see them losing 3-4 matches (at Stanford, at Pitt, 1-2 others along the way). They still have a strong SOS and probably nab the 3 or 4 overall seed. A lot depends on how good their 4th strongest OH is but based on the rest of the roster (Scott, Jones, Lazaro, Tillman, Debeer for half of the year), I think they still win a ton of games and could compete for a title.
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Post by stanfordvb on Feb 2, 2023 14:24:02 GMT -5
The problem is that come tournament time, Louisville's record isn't the same. Is the expectation that Louisville, without Chaussee all season and Debeer for half the season, still wins enough/the right matches, to get a top 4 seed? Because if so, that is where I think your reasoning falters. Without that top 4 seed, their path to the final four becomes a lot more murky, and they barely escaped Oregon, playing at home, WITH Debeer and Chaussee. If every team has their top player out I still think it's quite plausible. Looking at their tough matches: San Diego-still win at home if USD is without Blossom Ohio State-I think likelihood of winning goes up if Podraza is out Kentucky-I'd bet on Louisville with a Grome-less Kentucky Stanford-they might drop this match, but I don't see it is a surefire loss Georgia Tech-Louisville wins with or without Debeer if GT doesn't have Bergmann Pitt-they likely lose the first match, 2nd match up is more of a toss up, though Louisville absolutely dominated that match I think that's enough to warrant a top 4 seed. I see them losing 3-4 matches (at Stanford, at Pitt, 1-2 others along the way). They still have a strong SOS and probably nab the 3 or 4 overall seed. A lot depends on how good their 4th strongest OH is but based on the rest of the roster (Scott, Jones, Lazaro, Tillman, Debeer for half of the year), I think they still win a ton of games and could compete for a title. I think louisville definitely beats stanford without kipp tho lol
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Post by staticb on Feb 2, 2023 14:27:27 GMT -5
Nebraska went the entire season without setting their best player so- she wasnt much of a factor when they did... I still blame the setters for that as hord had 0 problem putting the ball away for 4 years with a good setter. crazy because that couldve turned the tables for nebraska but they never got her going in the season as a whole A 1st Team All American needs to be able to adjust and figure out how to score even when the set isn't in her sweet spot. The sets weren't perfect for her, but they were at many times, consistent and she couldn't score with them. I can turn it around and say that Nebraska's other All-American Middles were able to score and be more efficient with the same/similar setting.
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Post by HOLIDAY on Feb 2, 2023 14:55:44 GMT -5
I am now San Diego’s biggest fan. Love the team, love their attitudes.
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Post by andrewwmic on Feb 2, 2023 16:44:23 GMT -5
I am now San Diego’s biggest fan. Love the team, love their attitudes. We love this for you. Stay there ✌️
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Post by HOLIDAY on Feb 2, 2023 17:39:19 GMT -5
I am now San Diego’s biggest fan. Love the team, love their attitudes. We love this for you. Stay there ✌️ Listen Andy, I may get season tickets right beside you. Could you PM me and let me know exactly where you are so I can see if I can make that happen. You have no idea how much that would make me happy.
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Post by madden55 on Feb 2, 2023 19:16:53 GMT -5
😭
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Post by ay2013 on Feb 2, 2023 19:28:24 GMT -5
The problem is that come tournament time, Louisville's record isn't the same. Is the expectation that Louisville, without Chaussee all season and Debeer for half the season, still wins enough/the right matches, to get a top 4 seed? Because if so, that is where I think your reasoning falters. Without that top 4 seed, their path to the final four becomes a lot more murky, and they barely escaped Oregon, playing at home, WITH Debeer and Chaussee. If every team has their top player out I still think it's quite plausible. Looking at their tough matches: San Diego-still win at home if USD is without Blossom Ohio State-I think likelihood of winning goes up if Podraza is out Kentucky-I'd bet on Louisville with a Grome-less Kentucky Stanford-they might drop this match, but I don't see it is a surefire loss Georgia Tech-Louisville wins with or without Debeer if GT doesn't have Bergmann Pitt-they likely lose the first match, 2nd match up is more of a toss up, though Louisville absolutely dominated that match I think that's enough to warrant a top 4 seed. I see them losing 3-4 matches (at Stanford, at Pitt, 1-2 others along the way). They still have a strong SOS and probably nab the 3 or 4 overall seed. A lot depends on how good their 4th strongest OH is but based on the rest of the roster (Scott, Jones, Lazaro, Tillman, Debeer for half of the year), I think they still win a ton of games and could compete for a title. *shrug* ok v. San Diego, why? - Firstly, Louisville successfully took Blossom out of a lot of transition plays by targeting her to take the first ball. And when Blossom did take second contact, it's not like she was was running some highly successful diversified offense. The middles combined for 9 kills, 6 errors, hitting 0.111. Frohling was DS'd, so Blossom wasn't keeping the defenses "honest" with a bunch of D sets. The vast majority of the offense came from Lukes on the left and Frohling on the right (like A LOT of teams end up doing) and both hit in the low .200's. Blossom is a stellar setter, but lets not pretend that she set the team well this match. OTOH, Louisville would have to make up 15 kills and a passer with Chaussee, and it's not like Debeer had a good match. If anything I think HCA maybe the deciding factor here, not because of the difference in impact of Blossom and Chaussee v. Ohio State (if it's Podraza) - not sure how you figure that. Considering that Louisville was playing at home, and still lost. Taking out the 1st set which was riddled with passing woes from Ohio State, Ohio State outscored Louisville 75 - 55, and that was where Chaussee was the second leading scorer and hit over .400 (the 3rd best scorer was Tillman with 5 kills, 4 errors for the match). Aiko Jones did nothing. Louisville's offense was 100% dependent on the LS this match, and you think the odds go UP of them winning by taking out one of their LS's? hmmmm v. Stanford, on paper, I agree it's not a surefire loss. The match as it happened was very close. Louisville won 51% of the points, Stanford 49%. Chaussee accounted for 37% of Louisville's kills (hitting over .300), Kipp accounted for 30% of Stanford's kills. I'd still rate this match as a toss up, generally, but I'd favor Stanford to win Georgia Tech gets beaten without Bergmann, however, Georgia Tech sans Bergmann take a lot of losses on the year, which doesn't help Louisville's RPI I actually DON'T think that their general SOS would be anywhere near as great if all of their opponents lost their best player. Western Kentucky without Briggs OR Matthews probably isn't a top 25 RPI team, South Dakota without Junke is NOT a 3 loss team, and Purdue without Hudson probably has a losing record.
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Post by vbshrink on Feb 3, 2023 15:50:07 GMT -5
I feel like an alternate way to play this game is to randomize all the players into each others’ schools and see which ones would have the biggest impact in their new imaginary one… Who would win if everyone had to play opposite handed? On one leg?
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Post by eyeroll2021 on Feb 3, 2023 16:05:06 GMT -5
I feel like an alternate way to play this game is to randomize all the players into each others’ schools and see which ones would have the biggest impact in their new imaginary one… Who would win if everyone had to play opposite handed? On one leg? B-Team lineups only
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