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Post by ay2013 on Mar 7, 2023 1:14:53 GMT -5
I don’t believe a pin trio of Jackson/Sauer/Mbonu with Georgiades at libero misses the NCAA tournament completely… especially when the Big 12 has been pushing like a half dozen teams into the tournament every year before the additions. I’d be shocked to see any of Texas, Baylor, BYU, Kansas, and Houston out of the tourney. Iowa State, TCU, and UCF have a chance to be on the bubble. That’s about where I draw the line I think. Tech loses a lot, WVU loses a lot and sucked anyways, K State is always meh, Cinci is a mess. I think the Big 12 gets 7. Texas, Baylor, BYU, Kansas, Houston, Iowa State, and TCU. Iowa State being by far the shakiest of those 7. I think I'd put Kansas on the bubble before I would TCU. Kansas' pins have struggled to put the ball away too much last year and they didn't pick up any offensive talent in the portal yet right? I don't think their serving and defense is (based on last year) good enough to offset some of their offensive lulls. With the addition of more teams, not only will the Big 12 no longer enjoy the inherent RPI advantage the conference has gotten in the past for having a higher proportion of non-conference matches compared to the other Power 5 conferences, but, for next year anyway, they added two teams that have a really good chance of beating Kansas (BYU and Houston) and two teams that could have pretty poor records and won't help the conference's RPI if they schedule too tough in the non-conference - Cincinnati and UCF (FWIW, depending on the non-conference slate, I can easily see UCF having a losing record next year). It also doesn't help that West Virginia, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma lost their best players and while I think Kansas State will be *fine*, much of that depends on Carter returning to form. Baylor has scheduled pretty tough the last few years. With their roster turnover, if they aren't careful, they could also bring a poor non-conference record to the Big 12's RPI.
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Post by ay2013 on Mar 7, 2023 1:15:15 GMT -5
especially when the Big 12 has been pushing like a half dozen teams into the tournament every year before the additions. I'm interested to see what the RPI/conference schedule looks like. The Big 12 really benefitted from having a smaller conference with less teams in terms of RPI. agreed
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Post by uofaGRAD on Mar 7, 2023 1:24:48 GMT -5
I don’t believe a pin trio of Jackson/Sauer/Mbonu with Georgiades at libero misses the NCAA tournament completely… especially when the Big 12 has been pushing like a half dozen teams into the tournament every year before the additions. I’d be shocked to see any of Texas, Baylor, BYU, Kansas, and Houston out of the tourney. Iowa State, TCU, and UCF have a chance to be on the bubble. That’s about where I draw the line I think. Tech loses a lot, WVU loses a lot and sucked anyways, K State is always meh, Cinci is a mess. I think the Big 12 gets 7. Texas, Baylor, BYU, Kansas, Houston, Iowa State, and TCU. Iowa State being by far the shakiest of those 7. I think I'd put Kansas on the bubble before I would TCU. Kansas' pins have struggled to put the ball away too much last year and they didn't pick up any offensive talent in the portal yet right? I don't think their serving and defense is (based on last year) good enough to offset some of their offensive lulls. With the addition of more teams, not only will the Big 12 no longer enjoy the inherent RPI advantage the conference has gotten in the past for having a higher proportion of non-conference matches compared to the other Power 5 conferences, but, for next year anyway, they added two teams that have a really good chance of beating Kansas (BYU and Houston) and two teams that very likely isn't going to help the conference's RPI if they schedule too tough in the non-conference - Cincinnati and UCF (FWIW, depending on the non-conference slate, I can easily see UCF having a losing record next year). It also doesn't help that West Virginia, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma lost their best players and while I think Kansas State will be *fine*, much of that depends on Carter returning to form. Baylor has scheduled pretty tough the last few years. With their roster turnover, if they aren't careful, they could also bring a poor non-conference record to the Big 12's RPI. I’ll just never bet against Kansas missing the tourney lol. I think they’ll be fine. A lot of returners and picked up a pin I believe in Reagan Cooper. They were eerily close to knocking out Nebraska last year and much of the team is still there.
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Post by ay2013 on Mar 7, 2023 1:28:03 GMT -5
I think I'd put Kansas on the bubble before I would TCU. Kansas' pins have struggled to put the ball away too much last year and they didn't pick up any offensive talent in the portal yet right? I don't think their serving and defense is (based on last year) good enough to offset some of their offensive lulls. With the addition of more teams, not only will the Big 12 no longer enjoy the inherent RPI advantage the conference has gotten in the past for having a higher proportion of non-conference matches compared to the other Power 5 conferences, but, for next year anyway, they added two teams that have a really good chance of beating Kansas (BYU and Houston) and two teams that very likely isn't going to help the conference's RPI if they schedule too tough in the non-conference - Cincinnati and UCF (FWIW, depending on the non-conference slate, I can easily see UCF having a losing record next year). It also doesn't help that West Virginia, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma lost their best players and while I think Kansas State will be *fine*, much of that depends on Carter returning to form. Baylor has scheduled pretty tough the last few years. With their roster turnover, if they aren't careful, they could also bring a poor non-conference record to the Big 12's RPI. I’ll just never bet against Kansas missing the tourney lol. I think they’ll be fine. A lot of returners and picked up a pin I believe in Reagan Cooper. They were eerily close to knocking out Nebraska last year and much of the team is still there. I'm not saying they'll miss the tourney next year, but I'd feel comfortable projecting them as a solid bubble team heading into next year.
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Post by c4ndlelight on Mar 7, 2023 2:05:44 GMT -5
Why? They lose Melville(!) and their starting setter. I don't even know if UCF will make the tournament? They’ve made 5 tournaments in a row. Even if they don’t make the NCAA tournament I don’t see them falling off a cliff. They’ll at least be very competitive. Baylor is going to be even younger this year than they were last year, which seems improbable, but it’s true. I expect Baylor to stay highly competitive as well. I don’t have a good idea where everyone is going to fall, and I expect Texas to win the conference again per usual, but I feel like BYU, UH, and UCF are going to spice things up. Including UCF in that list doesn’t even seem remotely controversial to me. UCF made 5 tournaments with Melville, who took almost 40% of their swings last year and was their best ball control OH. Add to that they lost their 2nd best attacker and 5-1 setter - a rebuild for UCF is expected this year, esp. with a huge step up in competition (it's not like UCF is used to playing good teams in the non-conference eithers). UCF is one of the safer bets for a tournament team to drop off. On the other hand, I think BYU improves its ball control and will have a really good debut season. I'm thinking something like: 1. Texas 2. BYU 3/4. Houston/Baylor 5. Kansas 6. TCU 7. K-State 8. Iowa St. 9. UCF 10. WVU 11. Cincy 12. Oklahoma
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Post by bbg95 on Mar 7, 2023 2:11:19 GMT -5
They’ve made 5 tournaments in a row. Even if they don’t make the NCAA tournament I don’t see them falling off a cliff. They’ll at least be very competitive. Baylor is going to be even younger this year than they were last year, which seems improbable, but it’s true. I expect Baylor to stay highly competitive as well. I don’t have a good idea where everyone is going to fall, and I expect Texas to win the conference again per usual, but I feel like BYU, UH, and UCF are going to spice things up. Including UCF in that list doesn’t even seem remotely controversial to me. McKenna Melville is the reason they made 5 tournaments in a row. Just like Jordan Thompson took Cincinnati to NCAA Tournaments and they have been a mess since. Those are one-of-a kind players (especially Thompson) that aren't easy to replace, we're talking 6-7 points per set players. UCF had a little more talent around Melville in her time compared to the Cincinnati/JT teams. Melville took 1300 swings last year - next highest total was 497. Not only that, but her passing, defense, blocking were lights out. I guess it just depends on what you mean by 'very competitive'. Maybe they have some big transfer(s) coming in, but I don't recall any game-changers. Yeah, I think Thompson was the best player of at least the last five years. That's like trying to replace Barry Sanders after his 1988 Heisman season.
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Post by anOPINionATEDbeACH(hookemboo) on Mar 7, 2023 2:20:27 GMT -5
I really feel like Baylor will be better. Over half of their serve receive were freshman and their ridiculously great passing Libero Briseno was only a sophomore (1st year playing bro ).
*Their Outsides were their weakness, not great jumpers and poor out of system.
With Freshman outside duo Stowers and Murphy, I think they will shock a lot (after getting some development ofc.) Both seemed really explosive so It looks like upgrade already.
However middle seems questionable (but it seems everybody in the country has question marks on that right now).
But overall Baylor should be better this year.
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Post by anOPINionATEDbeACH(hookemboo) on Mar 7, 2023 2:38:48 GMT -5
Big 12 will be much more competitive this year. My end of year conference standing prediction :
1.Texas- I hate putting pressure on players, but Swindle play how you played in that all-American game and you can take Texas far again.
2. BYU -Livingston and Bower will lead this team. Already added to their weakness at passing with transfer and a freshman libero. And Kate Prior will most likely have a breakout season.
3. Baylor -(Carlson should be getting the hype that Stucky gets, especially with the pins she had last year………. and you never can go wrong with a great setter/libero duo w/ (Carlson & Briseno).
4.Houston - Sauer, Ebonu, Jackson pin trio and their UNDERRATED libero Georgiades).
5. Kansas- (only put them over tcu because I’m about 50% sure outside hitter Regan Cooper just committed there so it should help their poor terminating right away & their passing and defense is always their strength , can’t really do a lot of wrong with that. ).
6.TCU -I feel like Jason Williams will do big things with TCU, espcially after Texas leaves for the SEC . (parra & Gibson pin duo should be exciting) (new setter from Mizzou with height).
7. Oklahoma maybe (if they fix their passing with the new coach).
Others fighting to make the tournament * Unless somebody surprises us
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Post by Deleted on Mar 7, 2023 4:53:29 GMT -5
I think I'd put Kansas on the bubble before I would TCU. Kansas' pins have struggled to put the ball away too much last year and they didn't pick up any offensive talent in the portal yet right? I don't think their serving and defense is (based on last year) good enough to offset some of their offensive lulls. With the addition of more teams, not only will the Big 12 no longer enjoy the inherent RPI advantage the conference has gotten in the past for having a higher proportion of non-conference matches compared to the other Power 5 conferences, but, for next year anyway, they added two teams that have a really good chance of beating Kansas (BYU and Houston) and two teams that very likely isn't going to help the conference's RPI if they schedule too tough in the non-conference - Cincinnati and UCF (FWIW, depending on the non-conference slate, I can easily see UCF having a losing record next year). It also doesn't help that West Virginia, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma lost their best players and while I think Kansas State will be *fine*, much of that depends on Carter returning to form. Baylor has scheduled pretty tough the last few years. With their roster turnover, if they aren't careful, they could also bring a poor non-conference record to the Big 12's RPI. I’ll just never bet against Kansas missing the tourney lol. I think they’ll be fine. A lot of returners and picked up a pin I believe in Reagan Cooper. They were eerily close to knocking out Nebraska last year and much of the team is still there. didn’t they also pick up Mykayla Myers from TCU? Idk if she’ll be a game changer but she definitely adds some depth at MB for the Jayhawks.
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Post by bluepenquin on Mar 7, 2023 8:29:31 GMT -5
especially when the Big 12 has been pushing like a half dozen teams into the tournament every year before the additions. I'm interested to see what the RPI/conference schedule looks like. The Big 12 really benefitted from having a smaller conference with less teams in terms of RPI. Million $ question. If it is an 18 game season - they will be fine. They could end up outstanding if the conference breaks out the right way where there are 3-5 bottom teams that do not win in conference but can be somewhere around .500 in the non conference. If they go with 20 games - then it will be bad/much worse. Another consideration - there will not be a balanced schedule and there could be some large variations in SOS. Teams will need to know and be aware of this when constructing their non conference schedule.
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Post by bluepenquin on Mar 7, 2023 8:35:38 GMT -5
Kansas had the 2nd best point differential in conference play last season (obviously behind Texas). The sequencing of points was terrible - either random luck or lack of skill depending on one's perspective.
They also finished with a higher Pablo rating than Houston and Baylor. Kansas should be a better team this year.
Final Pablo ranking for the conference:
Texas (1) BYU (17) UCF (20) Kansas (23) Baylor (25) Houston (28) TCU (42) Kansas State (48) Oklahoma (49) Texas Tech (50) Iowa State (51) West Virginia (134) Cincinatti (137)
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Post by bluepenquin on Mar 7, 2023 8:44:29 GMT -5
They’ve made 5 tournaments in a row. Even if they don’t make the NCAA tournament I don’t see them falling off a cliff. They’ll at least be very competitive. Baylor is going to be even younger this year than they were last year, which seems improbable, but it’s true. I expect Baylor to stay highly competitive as well. I don’t have a good idea where everyone is going to fall, and I expect Texas to win the conference again per usual, but I feel like BYU, UH, and UCF are going to spice things up. Including UCF in that list doesn’t even seem remotely controversial to me. McKenna Melville is the reason they made 5 tournaments in a row. Just like Jordan Thompson took Cincinnati to NCAA Tournaments and they have been a mess since. Those are one-of-a kind players (especially Thompson) that aren't easy to replace, we're talking 6-7 points per set players. UCF had a little more talent around Melville in her time compared to the Cincinnati/JT teams. Melville took 1300 swings last year - next highest total was 497. Not only that, but her passing, defense, blocking were lights out. I guess it just depends on what you mean by 'very competitive'. Maybe they have some big transfer(s) coming in, but I don't recall any game-changers. McKenna is a huge loss - I don't think they will be as good as last year. But, unlike Cincinnati after they lost Thompson - I believe UCF has been doing a decent job of recruiting and may be able to transition into a decent team this year. They will need Lauren Clark to be very good.
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Post by horns1 on Mar 7, 2023 8:50:32 GMT -5
especially when the Big 12 has been pushing like a half dozen teams into the tournament every year before the additions. I'm interested to see what the RPI/conference schedule looks like. The Big 12 really benefitted from having a smaller conference with less teams in terms of RPI. Playing every opponent home and away made for a perfectly balanced conference schedule. 13 teams since Okie State does not field volleyball. Makes sense that we'll follow a similar format to what the 13-team SEC played (non-COVID years).
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Post by bluepenquin on Mar 7, 2023 9:20:07 GMT -5
My current preseason ranking for the conference:
1. Texas 2. BYU 3. Baylor 4. Kansas 5. Houston 6. TCU 7. Iowa State 8. Kansas State 9. UCF 10. Oklahoma 11. West Virginia 12. Texas Tech 13. Cincinnati
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Post by stevehorn on Mar 7, 2023 10:34:06 GMT -5
I'm interested to see what the RPI/conference schedule looks like. The Big 12 really benefitted from having a smaller conference with less teams in terms of RPI. Playing every opponent home and away made for a perfectly balanced conference schedule. 13 teams since Okie State does not field volleyball. Makes sense that we'll follow a similar format to what the 13-team SEC played (non-COVID years). 18 game schedule makes sense. Would be hard to play 20 since there will still be byes in conference play (thanks Okie State). 18 game schedule would mean 6 home/away and 6 single game opponents. I'm guessing the Texas home/away will be the 4 other Texas schools, OU, and a coinflip for the 6th (guessing one of the new schools - perhaps BYU).
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