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Post by luckydawg on Aug 21, 2023 17:14:52 GMT -5
You sure it's not the life of the media deal? I’d swear on my life that 12+ years ago I read that joining the B1G meant joining for life. This was specifically in the context of the idea that Michigan and Ohio State might someday bolt of the SEC. If this can't be located anywhere, it's likely a faulty search engine or faulty memory. Probably the second of these.
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Post by redbeard2008 on Aug 21, 2023 18:49:36 GMT -5
Everything is negotiable. They don't have to join the ACC to negotiate to get out - they are already a member. How much value does Notre Dame, without football, bring to the ACC? In the meantime, the ACC members hate the media rights deal they signed because it locks them into an also-ran status through 2036, with the $-gap just getting wider and wider and wider. Does the B1G want ND enough to save a slot for them? Absolutely. If the B1G signs a future deal paying $100+ million per member, which seems very likely, that makes even a very hefty negotiated buy-out doable. My guess is that the ACC would grab the money and say "C-Ya!" Let's also venture that the B1G lets ND keep the lion's share (67-75%?) of whatever deal they can negotiate with NBC for their home games as a sweetener. It is the same reason UW and Oregon are jumping at half-shares - they don't want to be left behind. And the same reason Stanford might not want to join the ACC, MWC, Big 12, or expanded Pac without a "parachute" clause. I should have said "they could join the ACC for football" but I thought that was clear. My apologies. They currently have a contract that says they'll play 5 football games a year w ACC teams and that if they join a conference for football, it will be the ACC. That contract runs until 2036. If they want to join another conference, they could join the ACC as a full member for all sports including football (IOW honor their current contract w the ACC) then negotiate out. Or, if they join another conference for football before 2036, they could pay the ACC damages for breach of contract (which would probably cost about the same but if they negotiate it's between them and the ACC, not a jury or judge w discovery like if they get sued for damages).
But, as I asked you earlier, how likely do you think it is that they will pay a lot of money to join the B1G anytime soon? Their cost may be more than $500M bc their games may be worth more than FSU's. I think the odds are low that joining the B1G would be worth that much to them. How high do you think the odds are? I guess if the B1G actually gets to $100M per team per year (and ND does not get a similar raise in its payments from NBC or another network), it might be likely but they aren't close to that ATM.
I don't understand why you are talking about the price for ND without football. They are contractually obligated to either remain independent or join the ACC in football. If they join the B1G, they will owe the ACC the damages for ND not joining the ACC in football thru 2036. How are they going to join the B1G without having to pay damages equal to what they would have paid the ACC to get out if they had joined for football as well as their other sports?
The better question is why the B1G is keeping a slot open for ND, just in case ND chooses to join. As to the ACC, FSU, Clemson, NC, and other ACC members hate their media deal with ESPN, because the $ gap between them and the B1G and SEC will only continue to grow and grow and grow. Because ND football is not in the ACC, ND is not adding many $s to the ACC's bottom line. The ACC members may be motivated to accept a negotiated, but still "fat", buy-out from ND, rather than take their chances in a long court battle (the "penalty" far, far outweighs the "damages", likely by a factor of five or more). Do we know that ND's agreement with the ACC does not include an escape-clause, allowing ND to leave for less than a full buy-out? Clearly Stanford would prefer joining the B1G over going independent or joining the ACC. Adding Stanford (and Cal as a travel partner) also could make sense for the B1G in that it would add the #6 media market and moderate travel/scheduling issues from the 2024 expansion. As long as the B1G is holding a spot for ND (and FSU?), Stanford needs a "bridge". If Stanford is offering to join the ACC for no or a discounted pay-out, why wouldn't they also want a discounted buy-out?
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Post by Deleted on Aug 21, 2023 18:56:04 GMT -5
I’d swear on my life that 12+ years ago I read that joining the B1G meant joining for life. This was specifically in the context of the idea that Michigan and Ohio State might someday bolt of the SEC. I suspect they wouldn't enter into such a contract because a perpetual contract would struggle to be upheld. South Dakota has repealed the rule against perpetuities, so if trusts can do it, why not a conference or two?
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Post by c4ndlelight on Aug 21, 2023 19:13:46 GMT -5
I suspect they wouldn't enter into such a contract because a perpetual contract would struggle to be upheld. South Dakota has repealed the rule against perpetuities, so if trusts can do it, why not a conference or two? It's not a RAP issue. It's about contracts and public policy. (And even if it were, courts w/o RAP will still void things as unreasonable restraints on alienation).
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Post by savannahbadger on Aug 21, 2023 19:28:01 GMT -5
I’d swear on my life that 12+ years ago I read that joining the B1G meant joining for life. This was specifically in the context of the idea that Michigan and Ohio State might someday bolt of the SEC. If this can't be located anywhere, it's likely a faulty search engine or faulty memory. Probably the second of these. Or a search engine trying to serve up the most relevant results, not some obscure reference from 12+ years ago.
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Post by savannahbadger on Aug 21, 2023 19:36:01 GMT -5
The better question is why the B1G is keeping a slot open for ND, just in case ND chooses to join. It’s a chess move to keep ND from deciding that it MUST join a conference, and the only option available to them is the SEC. The B1G is quite content to leave ND with the ACC until 2036. At the same time, there’s a reason why the SEC keep advocating for ND to have access to the BCS and CFP: preventing ND from making a choice. Sure, there’s a chance ND could choose the SEC, but if push came to shove, ND would likely choose the B1G.
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Post by luckydawg on Aug 21, 2023 20:37:25 GMT -5
If this can't be located anywhere, it's likely a faulty search engine or faulty memory. Probably the second of these. Or a search engine trying to serve up the most relevant results, not some obscure reference from 12+ years ago. A lifetime commitment to a conference is substantially more than an obscure reference. Would also be brought up just about every time realignment is written about. Maybe there was a quote from someone saying their move to the Big was a lifetime commitment. Like wedding vows. Meant at the time, but things change.
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Post by baytree on Aug 21, 2023 20:54:55 GMT -5
The better question is why the B1G is keeping a slot open for ND, just in case ND chooses to join. It’s a chess move to keep ND from deciding that it MUST join a conference, and the only option available to them is the SEC. The B1G is quite content to leave ND with the ACC until 2036. At the same time, there’s a reason why the SEC keep advocating for ND to have access to the BCS and CFP: preventing ND from making a choice. Sure, there’s a chance ND could choose the SEC, but if push came to shove, ND would likely choose the B1G. This, plus it costs the B1G nothing to leave the door open for Notre Dame. ND is the team they covet most so why not? It's not like there's a hard cap on the number of teams they can take or a deadline for ND joining.
The B1G can't beat independence now but who knows what contracts ND will get in the coming years or what will happen w realignment. Maybe the Magnificent Seven will find a way out of the ACC's GOR and the ACC will dissolve. (I'm not holding my breath; if it weren't really difficult, at least a few teams would have left already.) Maybe NBC will decide that they don't want to pay ND competitively. Maybe something else happens to change ND's mind.
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Post by savannahbadger on Aug 21, 2023 21:35:04 GMT -5
A lifetime commitment to a conference is substantially more than an obscure reference. Would also be brought just about every time realignment is written about. Maybe there was a quote from someone saying their move to the Big was a lifetime commitment. Like wedding vows. Meant at the time, but things change. We all know the ACC GOR is until 2036. I can’t find a concrete statement on how long the B1G’s is. The only thing remotely close is from 2020 when Nebraska and Ohio State were openly lobbying to play their season, even though the B1G had decided to cancel the season. There was mention of severe consequences and that talk got shut down fast. At the time of Nebraska joining, there were really only 2 teams that a lifetime GOR would have affected: Nebraska and Penn State, way back in 1990 when they accepted the invite. The other 10 members were pretty well joined at the hip, even though Michigan did leave once, so maybe that was the foundation of this commitment? All I know is that I don’t recall there ever being any serious talk of anyone leaving the B1G back in the late 80’s to mid 90’s, as the SWC started to crumble and some independents starting joining conferences (or starting them, in the case of the Big East). There was a lot of talk of teams joining the B1G, but nothing of anyone pulling out in that era.
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Post by bbg95 on Aug 21, 2023 22:09:46 GMT -5
In addition to whether a forever GOR would be enforceable, I think it would make the Big Ten highly unattractive for Notre Dame. Forever is a long time. Two decades ago, an undefeated SEC champion (Auburn) was left out of the BCS Championship Game, and it wasn't particularly controversial that USC and Oklahoma got in ahead of them. Now, USC and Oklahoma have left their conferences, the Pac-12 is dead, and the SEC is the lone football superpower. For a school that values its independence so highly, I don't think Notre Dame wants to be stuck in any conference until the end of time.
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Post by bbg95 on Aug 21, 2023 22:12:29 GMT -5
The better question is why the B1G is keeping a slot open for ND, just in case ND chooses to join. It’s a chess move to keep ND from deciding that it MUST join a conference, and the only option available to them is the SEC. The B1G is quite content to leave ND with the ACC until 2036. At the same time, there’s a reason why the SEC keep advocating for ND to have access to the BCS and CFP: preventing ND from making a choice. Sure, there’s a chance ND could choose the SEC, but if push came to shove, ND would likely choose the B1G. I don't think that's true. The Big Ten has been desperate to add Notre Dame for at least the last 25 years or so. They might be "content" to let them stay in the ACC for now, but they would definitely prefer that Notre Dame join as soon as possible. Notre Dame doesn't share that desire, though. You are right that the SEC has a vested interest in Notre Dame staying independent. I really don't know what Notre Dame would decide to do, especially if they felt strongarmed. They are unlike any other FBS school in the country, as they're really the only one that prefers independence to joining any conference.
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Post by luckydawg on Aug 21, 2023 22:40:18 GMT -5
We all know the ACC GOR is until 2036. I can’t find a concrete statement on how long the B1G’s is. The current B1G GOR/Media contract goes through the 2029/30 school year. Then UW and Oregon will receive full shares.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 22, 2023 11:58:57 GMT -5
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Post by bluepenquin on Aug 22, 2023 13:11:13 GMT -5
Interesting way to frame the story. One could have said: Washington and Oregon made a decision that effectively killed the PAC 12 because the Big Ten through their media contract and negotiations with FOX gave them a better deal than anything they could have gotten from the PAC via Apple. If Washington and Oregon believed that Apple had more value - or gave them more value - they may have made a different decision. Kind of hard to blame FOX for making too good of a deal to a couple Universities that acted in their own self-interest.
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Post by luckydawg on Aug 22, 2023 13:27:20 GMT -5
Could have happened this way. But if it were really that important to Apple, they have the nearly unlimited resources to get the contract. Even with that much money, the Pac just wasn't worth it.
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