Pepperdine @ LMU | Thurs Oct 19, 7 PM PT | ESPN+

[hammer]

LMU up 4-0 early in set 5. Pep playing too conservatively.

[hammer]

Now tied 6-6 after some bad LMU passing. LMU calls a TO.

[hammer]

8-7 Pep at the switch

[hammer]

10-9 Pep, challenge for a ball in, but it looks in

[trojansc]

Huge kills from Meg Brown here in the 5th

Serving specialist Kayla Lopez from LMU did a nice job, almost got her team tied, but Pepp up 11-9.

[hammer]

Now 13-10 Pep after a tight set brings LMU's Geissberger into the net. TO LMU.

Geissberger hits out, 14-10, but LMU is challenging.

Edit: Call stands, still 14-10

[hammer]

Pep takes it 15-11 with a monster kill from Helmuth.

[trojansc]

Wow. Huge win for Pepperdine. They have put themselves in a position where a split with San Diego and taking care of business with the rest of the WCC means they are 100% in the NCAA Tournament.

LMU is in trouble. I think LMU needs to beat San Diego again to have any shot at the tournament, and they might need San Diego to beat Pepperdine twice.

[BeachbytheBay]

Oct 19, 2023 23:49:18 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Wow. Huge win for Pepperdine. They have put themselves in a position where a split with San Diego and taking care of business with the rest of the WCC means they are 100% in the NCAA Tournament.

LMU is in trouble. I think LMU needs to beat San Diego again to have any shot at the tournament, and they might need San Diego to beat Pepperdine twice.

just not sure how LMU would get in

they do ok in the ratings, but could end up with 0 top 50 wins even beating SD twice, unless Beach likewise runs the table as does SD


if they lose to SD, it's over, 1-3 in their own conference with Pepp/SD won't cut it

[trojansc]

Oct 20, 2023 7:12:35 GMT -5 BeachbytheBay said:

Oct 19, 2023 23:49:18 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Wow. Huge win for Pepperdine. They have put themselves in a position where a split with San Diego and taking care of business with the rest of the WCC means they are 100% in the NCAA Tournament.

LMU is in trouble. I think LMU needs to beat San Diego again to have any shot at the tournament, and they might need San Diego to beat Pepperdine twice.

just not sure how LMU would get in

they do ok in the ratings, but could end up with 0 top 50 wins even beating SD twice, unless Beach likewise runs the table as does SD

if they lose to SD, it's over, 1-3 in their own conference with Pepp/SD won't cut it

Long Beach doesn't need to run the table to end up top 50. If LMU ends up with a couple T50 wins, they have a shot, but it would still be dicey. The AQ isn't completely out of reach for LMU, but both that and the at-large odds looked stacked against them for now.

The only thing that could possibly help them on the bubble is, as it stands, they don't have any losses outside the Top 50. Their worst loss is 37 Pepperdine (x2). Sometimes a 'clean' record with light wins can be respected.

But with the way the bubble is looking, it's looking like there will be too many options better than LMU, especially in terms of wins.

[BeachbytheBay]

Oct 20, 2023 9:21:30 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Oct 20, 2023 7:12:35 GMT -5 BeachbytheBay said:

just not sure how LMU would get in

they do ok in the ratings, but could end up with 0 top 50 wins even beating SD twice, unless Beach likewise runs the table as does SD

if they lose to SD, it's over, 1-3 in their own conference with Pepp/SD won't cut it

Long Beach doesn't need to run the table to end up top 50. If LMU ends up with a couple T50 wins, they have a shot, but it would still be dicey. The AQ isn't completely out of reach for LMU, but both that and the at-large odds looked stacked against them for now.

The only thing that could possibly help them on the bubble is, as it stands, they don't have any losses outside the Top 50. Their worst loss is 37 Pepperdine (x2). Sometimes a 'clean' record with light wins can be respected.

But with the way the bubble is looking, it's looking like there will be too many options better than LMU, especially in terms of wins.

I'm not (at least if I was selecting) a big fan of overemphasing a bad loss (maybe two). I tend to want to throw out the worst loss. yeah, if a team has multiple 100+ rated losses, then that becomes concerning.

I'm of opinion good wins far outweigh bad losses.

of course being a Beach fan, I realize how that looks, especially they have this monstrous difference of no other team with a #4 Texas win and #300 Northridge loss

still, given almost the entire Beach team had food poisoning for the Northridge match, some bad losses happen. Texas losing to Beach wasn't really that bad a loss for them, since a top 50 loss isn't all that bad


the top 25 and top 50 records to me carry a lot of rate, and even top 100 . LMU's issue is they could end up with only 4 top 50 matches, hard for their case if they end up 1-3 and that's it

[trojansc]

Oct 20, 2023 9:47:15 GMT -5 BeachbytheBay said:

I'm not (at least if I was selecting) a big fan of overemphasing a bad loss (maybe two). I tend to want to throw out the worst loss. yeah, if a team has multiple 100+ rated losses, then that becomes concerning.

I'm of opinion good wins far outweigh bad losses.

of course being a Beach fan, I realize how that looks, especially they have this monstrous difference of no other team with a #4 Texas win and #300 Northridge loss

still, given almost the entire Beach team had food poisoning for the Northridge match, some bad losses happen. Texas losing to Beach wasn't really that bad a loss for them, since a top 50 loss isn't all that bad


the top 25 and top 50 records to me carry a lot of rate, and even top 100 . LMU's issue is they could end up with only 4 top 50 matches, hard for their case if they end up 1-3 and that's it

Hmm. I think if you throw out the worst loss, you should also throw out the best win. Just my take. The committee is generally forgiving of a bad loss though from what I've seen - if it's made up with good wins.

Of course - Ball State got in the tournament last year with 1 Top 50 win, an RPI of #51, and 3 sub-100 losses. Incredible. When I see selections like that - i feel like nobody is ever out of the running.

I wasn't aware Long Beach State had food poisoning. Did any players miss games, and is that also an explanation as for why Long Beach went 5 with Bakersfield the day before? Playing back to back days with food poisoning seems like... a not fair experience for student athletes.

[BeachbytheBay]

Oct 20, 2023 10:35:43 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Oct 20, 2023 9:47:15 GMT -5 BeachbytheBay said:

I'm not (at least if I was selecting) a big fan of overemphasing a bad loss (maybe two). I tend to want to throw out the worst loss. yeah, if a team has multiple 100+ rated losses, then that becomes concerning.

I'm of opinion good wins far outweigh bad losses.

of course being a Beach fan, I realize how that looks, especially they have this monstrous difference of no other team with a #4 Texas win and #300 Northridge loss

still, given almost the entire Beach team had food poisoning for the Northridge match, some bad losses happen. Texas losing to Beach wasn't really that bad a loss for them, since a top 50 loss isn't all that bad


the top 25 and top 50 records to me carry a lot of rate, and even top 100 . LMU's issue is they could end up with only 4 top 50 matches, hard for their case if they end up 1-3 and that's it

Hmm. I think if you throw out the worst loss, you should also throw out the best win. Just my take. The committee is generally forgiving of a bad loss though from what I've seen - if it's made up with good wins.

Of course - Ball State got in the tournament last year with 1 Top 50 win, an RPI of #51, and 3 sub-100 losses. Incredible. When I see selections like that - i feel like nobody is ever out of the running.

I wasn't aware Long Beach State had food poisoning. Did any players miss games, and is that also an explanation as for why Long Beach went 5 with Bakersfield the day before? Playing back to back days with food poisoning seems like... a not fair experience for student athletes.

One reason i disagree with throwing out best win but not worse loss is the penalty to non P5 s tgat have much less opps for giid eins but si much greater chance for bad losses as flukes

It goes to factorimg more in tge ceiling of a team vs one single mistake killing a resume.