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Post by mikegarrison on Oct 23, 2023 15:56:31 GMT -5
All discussion about the (lame duck) PAC-12 is welcome (except for trolling and flamebaiting) ================== NOTE: All references to rankings in this post are based on pablo, not AVCA!Standings: (3) Stanford 11-1 (+1)(7) Oregon 9-3 (-0)(13) ASU 9-3 (+1)(5) WSU 8-4 (-1)(27) USC 8-4 (+1)(36) UCLA 5-7 (-1)(56) Colorado 5-7 (+1)(43) Washington 4-8 (-1)(51) Cal 4-8 (-1)(66) Utah 4-8 (+0)(88) OSU 4-8 (+1)(92) Arizona 1-11 (-1)(Oct 23 pablo rankings) School W-L (wins above expectation)================== Predicted final win totals as of October 29 Stanford 18.8 to 17.0 -- median wins: 18 Oregon 16.3 to 14.0 -- median wins: 15 ASU 16.0 to 13.3 -- median wins: 15 WSU 15.4 to 12.8 -- median wins: 14 USC 13.0 to 10.2 -- median wins: 12 UCLA 10.0 to 7.1 -- median wins: 9 Colorado 9.4 to 6.6 -- median wins: 8 Washington 9.0 to 6.1 -- median wins: 8 Cal 8.3 to 5.6 -- median wins: 7 Utah 7.6 to 4.9 -- median wins: 6 OSU 7.4 to 4.7 -- median wins: 6 Arizona 4.5 to 1.7 -- median wins: 3 ================== Predicted final placements as of October 29 Stanford 1.0 to 1.1 -- median placement: 1 Oregon 1.5 to 3.3 -- median placement: 2 ASU 1.7 to 3.8 -- median placement: 3 WSU 2.2 to 4.2 -- median placement: 3 USC 4.1 to 5.5 -- median placement: 5 UCLA 5.3 to 7.9 -- median placement: 6 Colorado 5.7 to 8.8 -- median placement: 7 Washington 5.8 to 9.3 -- median placement: 7 Cal 6.6 to 10.1 -- median placement: 8 Utah 7.4 to 10.9 -- median placement: 9 OSU 7.7 to 11.2 -- median placement: 10 Arizona 11.0 to 11.9 -- median placement: 12 ================== This week's matches (Pacific times) Fri:
6:00pm Cal@ASU, Stanford@Arizona, USC@Colorado, UCLA@Utah
7:00pm OSU@Washington, Oregon@WSU
Sun:
11:00am USC@Utah
noon Stanford@ASU, Cal@Arizona, Oregon@Washington
1:00pm UCLA@Colorado
2:00pm OSU@WSU================== Pablo highlight matches of the week (top-25 pablo matchups):#7 Oregon (41%) @ #5 WSU (59%) -- Outcome: Oregon 3-1 #3 Stanford (70%) @ #13 ASU (30%) -- Outcome: ASU 3-0 ================== Pablo close matches of the week (55 percent or closer):UCLA (54%) @ Colorado (46%) -- Outcome: UCLA 3-0 ================== Next week: Washington @ BayArea, Mountains @ Oregon, Arizona @ LA ================== Conference schedule link: pac-12.com/womens-volleyball/schedule/Pablo is the creation of The Bofa on the Sofa and is available by subscription on richkern.com This post generated by code written by Mike Garrison. |
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Post by VolleyballFella on Oct 23, 2023 16:20:34 GMT -5
CU/USC is at 6pm Pacific (7pm Mountain).
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Post by Stargazer on Oct 23, 2023 16:29:01 GMT -5
Hope its alright if I add RPI futures rankings. I really enjoy reading these so thank you. Numbers derived from vballfan17.
Stanford (2)
WSU (7)
Oregon (9)
ASU (20)
USC (30)
Washington (51)
Colorado (69)
UCLA (60)
Utah (96)
Cal (65)
OSU (171)
Arizona (151)
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Post by mikegarrison on Oct 23, 2023 16:50:11 GMT -5
CU/USC is at 6pm Pacific (7pm Mountain). Thanks. I had the @ Utah time wrong as well. (The only part of the post I do by hand anymore instead of letting the computer do it for me, so of course it's the thing I got wrong....) |
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Post by mikegarrison on Oct 23, 2023 17:29:08 GMT -5
Halfway through the season, and I like to look at the conference-only stats. Everybody has played everybody once (mostly -- of course teams don't play against themselves, and they have all missed one other team as well).
Kills/Set
Four players are above 4 kills/set. Kipp (4.8), Levinska (4.7), Fields (4.6), Li (4.1). Li is the obvious "one of these things is not like the other" name, because everybody else is playing for a top-5 team, but she is playing for Cal.
Hitting Pct
As usual, middles dominate. McGhee, Jehlářová, Vicini are the only ones above .400 (McGhee at .518). Top Pct for hitters is Kipp at .344, which would be pretty respectable for a middle!
Aces/Set
Guess whose name we see on top of this one too? None other than Kipp. She's really looking like a back-to-back POY winner so far. She has 0.62 SA/S, and the next closest is Bolles at 0.44 SA/S. Baird and Oglivie also in the > 0.4 club, so Stanford is rocking the service ace leaderboard.
Digs/Set
Oglivie leading here too, just ahead of DeSa, which is kind of impressive because with Stanford's offense I wouldn't think she would get as many chances for digs.
Blocks/Set
Bacon and Howard at >1.5, Francis >1.4, Jehlářová, Dodson, Vicini >1.3. Dodson and Jehlářová lead for solo blocks, with Jeter right behind them. As in previous years, Kipp shows herself to be a very good blocker, as she is the top OH on the B/S list.
Points/Set
Of course it's Kipp, with her blocks and aces and kills all kicking in here. 6.0 points/set. Next is Levinska at 5.2, Fields 4.9, and then another Stanford player (Rubin at 4.5).
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Post by mikegarrison on Oct 23, 2023 17:37:47 GMT -5
Team stats:
These all kind of come down to one word: Stanford. #1 in hitting, kills/set, blocks/set, aces/set, points/set, and of course the really big one, wins/match.
Oregon is #2 in points, blocks, and kills, but has a bit of an error problem hurting them in percentage. WSU #2 in percentage. WSU also #2 in wins/match.
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Post by mikegarrison on Oct 25, 2023 14:30:21 GMT -5
All discussion about the (lame duck) PAC-12 is welcome (except for trolling and flamebaiting) ================== Predicted final win totals as of October 23 Stanford 19.7 to 17.4 -- median wins: 19 WSU 17.1 to 14.3 -- median wins: 16 Oregon 15.8 to 13.0 -- median wins: 14 ASU 15.3 to 12.3 -- median wins: 14 USC 13.5 to 10.3 -- median wins: 12 Washington 10.2 to 7.0 -- median wins: 9 Colorado 9.5 to 6.2 -- median wins: 8 UCLA 9.4 to 6.1 -- median wins: 8 Utah 8.5 to 5.4 -- median wins: 7 Cal 8.2 to 5.1 -- median wins: 7 OSU 5.7 to 2.8 -- median wins: 4 Arizona 5.1 to 2.1 -- median wins: 4 ================== Predicted final placements as of October 23 Stanford 1.0 to 1.1 -- median placement: 1 WSU 1.4 to 3.0 -- median placement: 2 Oregon 2.1 to 4.0 -- median placement: 3 ASU 2.3 to 4.5 -- median placement: 3 USC 3.7 to 5.6 -- median placement: 5 Washington 5.3 to 8.2 -- median placement: 6 Colorado 5.8 to 9.0 -- median placement: 7 UCLA 5.7 to 9.1 -- median placement: 7 Utah 6.6 to 9.9 -- median placement: 8 Cal 6.8 to 10.2 -- median placement: 9 OSU 9.5 to 11.8 -- median placement: 11 Arizona 10.3 to 11.8 -- median placement: 12 ================== I would like some feedback on this. I originally thought that treating the probable wins and placements as a continuous variable (that is to say, 3.45 wins is a valid number) showed some interesting nuance, because it would let you see that 3.45 and 3.51 were much closer together than 3 and 4, which is what it would be if I rounded to whole wins. But now I've started to think it might be better -- more readable and more intuitive -- to just round to whole wins and whole placements. Does anybody other than me have any thoughts about this, or shall I just do what I like and be done with it? |
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Post by acea on Oct 25, 2023 15:05:53 GMT -5
Halfway through the season, and I like to look at the conference-only stats. Everybody has played everybody once (mostly -- of course teams don't play against themselves, and they have all missed one other team as well). Kills/Set Four players are above 4 kills/set. Kipp (4.8), Levinska (4.7), Fields (4.6), Li (4.1). Li is the obvious "one of these things is not like the other" name, because everybody else is playing for a top-5 team, but she is playing for Cal. Hitting Pct As usual, middles dominate. McGhee, Jehlářová, Vicini are the only ones above .400 (McGhee at .518). Top Pct for hitters is Kipp at .344, which would be pretty respectable for a middle! Aces/Set Guess whose name we see on top of this one too? None other than Kipp. She's really looking like a back-to-back POY winner so far. She has 0.62 SA/S, and the next closest is Bolles at 0.44 SA/S. Baird and Oglivie also in the > 0.4 club, so Stanford is rocking the service ace leaderboard. Digs/Set Oglivie leading here too, just ahead of DeSa, which is kind of impressive because with Stanford's offense I wouldn't think she would get as many chances for digs. Blocks/Set Bacon and Howard at >1.5, Francis >1.4, Jehlářová, Dodson, Vicini >1.3. Dodson and Jehlářová lead for solo blocks, with Jeter right behind them. As in previous years, Kipp shows herself to be a very good blocker, as she is the top OH on the B/S list. Points/Set Of course it's Kipp, with her blocks and aces and kills all kicking in here. 6.0 points/set. Next is Levinska at 5.2, Fields 4.9, and then another Stanford player (Rubin at 4.5). Do you have a link for these stats? Are they including non-con? The published stats on the Pac-12 website are slightly different but same trends |
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Post by mikegarrison on Oct 25, 2023 15:10:57 GMT -5
Halfway through the season, and I like to look at the conference-only stats. Do you have a link for these stats? Are they including non-con? The published stats on the Pac-12 website are slightly different but same trends These are the conference-only stats from the PAC-12 website. By default the website shows you stats for the entire season, but you can switch that to conference-only. |
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Post by mikegarrison on Oct 25, 2023 15:13:49 GMT -5
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Post by davethecoug on Oct 25, 2023 20:05:31 GMT -5
All discussion about the (lame duck) PAC-12 is welcome (except for trolling and flamebaiting) ================== Predicted final win totals as of October 23 Stanford 19.7 to 17.4 -- median wins: 19 WSU 17.1 to 14.3 -- median wins: 16 Oregon 15.8 to 13.0 -- median wins: 14 ASU 15.3 to 12.3 -- median wins: 14 USC 13.5 to 10.3 -- median wins: 12 Washington 10.2 to 7.0 -- median wins: 9 Colorado 9.5 to 6.2 -- median wins: 8 UCLA 9.4 to 6.1 -- median wins: 8 Utah 8.5 to 5.4 -- median wins: 7 Cal 8.2 to 5.1 -- median wins: 7 OSU 5.7 to 2.8 -- median wins: 4 Arizona 5.1 to 2.1 -- median wins: 4 ================== Predicted final placements as of October 23 Stanford 1.0 to 1.1 -- median placement: 1 WSU 1.4 to 3.0 -- median placement: 2 Oregon 2.1 to 4.0 -- median placement: 3 ASU 2.3 to 4.5 -- median placement: 3 USC 3.7 to 5.6 -- median placement: 5 Washington 5.3 to 8.2 -- median placement: 6 Colorado 5.8 to 9.0 -- median placement: 7 UCLA 5.7 to 9.1 -- median placement: 7 Utah 6.6 to 9.9 -- median placement: 8 Cal 6.8 to 10.2 -- median placement: 9 OSU 9.5 to 11.8 -- median placement: 11 Arizona 10.3 to 11.8 -- median placement: 12 ================== I would like some feedback on this. I originally thought that treating the probable wins and placements as a continuous variable (that is to say, 3.45 wins is a valid number) showed some interesting nuance, because it would let you see that 3.45 and 3.51 were much closer together than 3 and 4, which is what it would be if I rounded to whole wins. But now I've started to think it might be better -- more readable and more intuitive -- to just round to whole wins and whole placements. Does anybody other than me have any thoughts about this, or shall I just do what I like and be done with it? I like the decimal places. |
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Post by mikegarrison on Oct 27, 2023 22:26:12 GMT -5
Standings:
(3) Stanford 11-0 (+2)
(5) WSU 8-2 (+0)
(13) ASU 8-3 (+0)
(7) Oregon 7-3 (-1)
(27) USC 7-3 (+1)
(43) Washington 4-6 (+0)
(56) Colorado 4-6 (+0)
(36) UCLA 4-7 (-1)
(66) Utah 4-7 (+0)
(51) Cal 3-8 (-1)
(88) OSU 2-8 (-0)
(92) Arizona 1-10 (-1)
(Oct 23 pablo rankings) School W-L (wins above expectation)
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Post by mikegarrison on Oct 27, 2023 22:44:42 GMT -5
Standings:
(3) Stanford 11-0 (+2)
(5) WSU 8-2 (+0)
(13) ASU 8-3 (+0)
(7) Oregon 7-3 (-1)
(27) USC 7-4 (+1)
(56) Colorado 5-6 (+1)
(43) Washington 4-6 (+0)
(36) UCLA 4-7 (-1)
(66) Utah 4-7 (+0)
(51) Cal 3-8 (-1)
(88) OSU 2-8 (-0)
(92) Arizona 1-10 (-1)
(Oct 23 pablo rankings) School W-L (wins above expectation)
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Post by mikegarrison on Oct 27, 2023 22:59:12 GMT -5
Standings:
(3) Stanford 11-0 (+2)
(5) WSU 8-2 (+0)
(13) ASU 8-3 (+0)
(7) Oregon 7-3 (-1)
(27) USC 7-4 (+1)
(56) Colorado 5-6 (+1)
(36) UCLA 4-7 (-1)
(43) Washington 4-7 (-1)
(66) Utah 4-7 (+0)
(51) Cal 3-8 (-1)
(88) OSU 3-8 (+0)
(92) Arizona 1-10 (-1)
(Oct 23 pablo rankings) School W-L (wins above expectation)
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Post by mikegarrison on Oct 27, 2023 23:17:08 GMT -5
Standings:
(3) Stanford 11-0 (+2)
(5) WSU 8-3 (-1)
(7) Oregon 8-3 (-0)
(13) ASU 8-3 (+0)
(27) USC 7-4 (+1)
(56) Colorado 5-6 (+1)
(36) UCLA 4-7 (-1)
(43) Washington 4-7 (-1)
(66) Utah 4-7 (+0)
(51) Cal 3-8 (-1)
(88) OSU 3-8 (+0)
(92) Arizona 1-10 (-1)
(Oct 23 pablo rankings) School W-L (wins above expectation)
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