2023 NCAA Volleyball Selection Show

[n00b]

Nov 28, 2023 15:03:12 GMT -5 trojansc said:

I do think K-State is maybe the worst exclusion. Even with a 50s RPI, we have to recognize how inconsistent that system can be. I already pointed out how K-State scheduling two worse opponents in terms of RPI would have raised them to likely 'in' the tournament, so flawed. Cal's exclusion in 2019 might be the worst too (considering who got in over them).

my other issue is the committee chair saying it's a misconception that RPI plays such a heavy emphasis in selection.

Eastern Washington

[mikegarrison]

Nov 28, 2023 12:41:17 GMT -5 bbg95 said:

Nov 28, 2023 12:18:33 GMT -5 trojansc said:

What is this in contrast to? I think the MBB committee does a fine job using a rating system and analyzing profiles.

The issue with using an "objective" metric is that it can lead to really stupid things. The computers are the reason why USC football got left out of the BCS national championship game in 2003 despite being No. 1 in both polls. A smart committee is better than strictly using a computer. The problem is when you have a committee that isn't smart. But the solution to me is to improve the quality of the committee's decision making, not replace them with a computer. As you said, I think the men's basketball committee does a pretty good job for the most part with the approach that they currently have.

I disagree.

I know I'm coming at this from an engineering background, but it's a matter of process. If you have a process, that is under control, then if it doesn't work exactly like you want you can fix it. You can make improvements.

But if you have no process, or you have one with no control that is different every time you try to use it (like a committee that changes every year and can't even explain their own choices), then you can't improve it. Expecting an uncontrolled process to get better is just stupid, because it won't.

Processes can involve people -- they don't just necessarily mean you run a computer code and it spits out the seeding (although I think that would be better than what we have now), but there needs to be a lot more than what we have now. Or at least what we see now.

Expecting things to ever change without changing the process we are currently following is madness.

[trojansc]

Nov 28, 2023 15:26:54 GMT -5 n00b said:

Nov 28, 2023 15:03:12 GMT -5 trojansc said:

I do think K-State is maybe the worst exclusion. Even with a 50s RPI, we have to recognize how inconsistent that system can be. I already pointed out how K-State scheduling two worse opponents in terms of RPI would have raised them to likely 'in' the tournament, so flawed. Cal's exclusion in 2019 might be the worst too (considering who got in over them).

my other issue is the committee chair saying it's a misconception that RPI plays such a heavy emphasis in selection.

Eastern Washington

For sure - but that's almost in a category of its own if NCAA admitted error. But I guess that falls under incompetence/laziness too?

While Tamas' complaints may be problematic in their own, I really want more coaches to speak up. But, I guess criticizing possible FUTURE colleagues/bosses in this sport is not a good move.

Also, I think the good coaches have caught on to RPI and figured it out and are just dealing with it. I looked at the top ~7ish teams in RPI and man they REALLY got some good RPI schedules.

[n00b]

Nov 28, 2023 15:31:10 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Nov 28, 2023 15:26:54 GMT -5 n00b said:

Eastern Washington

For sure - but that's almost in a category of its own if NCAA admitted error. But I guess that falls under incompetence/laziness too?

While Tamas' complaints may be problematic in their own, I really want more coaches to speak up. But, I guess criticizing possible FUTURE colleagues/bosses in this sport is not a good move.

Also, I think the good coaches have caught on to RPI and figured it out and are just dealing with it. I looked at the top ~7ish teams in RPI and man they REALLY got some good RPI schedules.

I actually just looked at that EWU team's results for the first time. I'm curious what you'd think if this profile were in today's bubble mix.

s3.amazonaws.com/ncaa/files/rpiarchive/archive/2002%20wvb%20final%20team%20sheets.pdf

Their team sheet is on Page 27.

[trojansc]

Nov 28, 2023 15:35:37 GMT -5 n00b said:

Nov 28, 2023 15:31:10 GMT -5 trojansc said:

For sure - but that's almost in a category of its own if NCAA admitted error. But I guess that falls under incompetence/laziness too?

While Tamas' complaints may be problematic in their own, I really want more coaches to speak up. But, I guess criticizing possible FUTURE colleagues/bosses in this sport is not a good move.

Also, I think the good coaches have caught on to RPI and figured it out and are just dealing with it. I looked at the top ~7ish teams in RPI and man they REALLY got some good RPI schedules.

I actually just looked at that EWU team's results for the first time. I'm curious what you'd think if this profile were in today's bubble mix.

s3.amazonaws.com/ncaa/files/rpiarchive/archive/2002%20wvb%20final%20team%20sheets.pdf

Their team sheet is on Page 27.

How could they not? 27 RPI - 3 Top 50 wins - no bad losses.

That resume is miles better than Tennessee's last year 55 RPI - 3 top 50 wins (none top 25) - 1 bad loss (Alabama). EWU's profile looks slightly better than Baylor's this year.

[donut]

Nov 28, 2023 14:01:35 GMT -5 houstonbear15 said:

Nov 28, 2023 12:08:47 GMT -5 donut said:

houstonbear15 I really don't understand the narrative you keep trying to spin regarding K-State's wins.  It just feels like you're splitting hairs, attempting to diminish 3 top 25, and 6 top 50 wins, just because they were in conference, later in the season, in back-to-back matches, etc.  If you want to do that analysis for everyone, go ahead, but I think it will make your K-State observations less unique and significant.

Tournament selection is splitting hairs so I am okay with that. Truly I am just channeling my inner DHump and thinking about what a possible argument could have been in those meetings.

Except you're splitting hairs because you want to disfavor Kansas State here. 

When looking at K-State's top wins alone, or in comparison to other teams from RPI loaded conferences (Miami, TCU, Minnesota), there is no need to break things down like I have. But if comparing K-State to SFA, there is obvious benefit to K-State's schedule, and I think it is important to note when thinking about non P5 teams from lower conferences. To exclude SFA for not picking up top 25 or top 50 wins, though having the RPI/KPI to be in, would make a statement towards non P5 schools for sure. When saying KSU deserves to be in over SFA because they have more top 50 wins, it's not hard to identify how their schedule benefitted them in achieving that vs. SFA's schedule. SFA did not have the privilege of not playing their top matches until the end of the season. KSU however, was granted the chance to not drop multiple sub-100 losses. It's pointing out one component of the tourney criteria while completely ignoring their deficits in the other components (RPI, KPI, win-loss record, SOS, significant losses).

^like this. There is no criteria "when comparing P5 teams to non-P5 teams, give non-P5 teams a handicap because their conference schedule wasn't as tough." Also, you continue to completely ignore that SFA could have scheduled tougher. That's like ... the entire point of non-con for teams like SFA who want to make the tournament. It shouldn't be to schedule a bunch of weak sauce teams so you can game the system and inflate your RPI.

And I still don't understand at all why it's a bad thing Kansas State's big wins came later in the season.  That's certainly not a criteria.

It's just interesting to me when RPI and KPI were both explicitly stated as criteria measures, people are up in arms that they actually used those measures.

They are not consistently applied measures, that's the whole problem.  I mean, check the chair's comments this year about RPI...

I am not even arguing that RPI or KPI are good factors or systems to use. I think my opinion changed when people started absolutely bashing the SFA program, when all they did was go 29-1 against the RPI range that K-State went 10-5 against. They played good, consistent volleyball to achieve that. 

Who bashed the SFA program?

And there's zero evidence they played tournament-level volleyball, regardless of how "good" you perceived it.

[trojansc]

Nov 28, 2023 15:19:20 GMT -5 @madden55 said:

okay but why did KSU lose some of these matches lmao. Also how did they lose to Houston so badly including a 25-11 set when jackson didn't play.... idk how you sweep texas and BYU but do that lmao

How do you beat Serbia, dominate China, and lose to the Czech Republic?

[Deleted]

Nov 28, 2023 18:01:30 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Nov 28, 2023 15:19:20 GMT -5 @madden55 said:

okay but why did KSU lose some of these matches lmao. Also how did they lose to Houston so badly including a 25-11 set when jackson didn't play.... idk how you sweep texas and BYU but do that lmao

How do you beat Serbia, dominate China, and lose to the Czech Republic?

😦

[trojansc]

But on a serious note - I think poor serve receive leads teams to have wild results. Just compounding mistakes, or when big physical teams can’t use their advantages they can get beat by lesser quality teams.

Given how rare big upsets (top 5-10) are in our sport - it makes sense to value those.

What was weird for me this year was seeing some really disastrous losses. Rice nearly lost to LIU, Coastal’s multiple awful losses, LBSU’s disaster loss to CSUN. Like bottom 200’s teams very rarely beat even top 50 borderline teams.

I think UNCW beat JMU a year or two with like a 300s RPI. Maybe the bottom is getting better.

[Wolfgang]

I don't know if anyone mentioned this. I don't have time to read all 83 pages of this thread. My one (and only) complaint is during the Hawaii announcement when the commentator said Hawaii "had to beat Long Beach State in five to get the bid. Talk about drama..."

Ummm...no...Hawaii coasted 3-0 against LBSU in the Big West tournament final. And the third (and decisive) set was by a 25-10 score.

There was no drama.

I don't have any other complaints because I pretty much fast forwarded to the Hawaii section and watched only 10-15 seconds of the entire video.

[tablealgebra]

Nov 28, 2023 13:14:53 GMT -5 trojansc said:

I also think you’re 6 top 50 wins vs. 5 sub-50 losses isn’t really a “thing”. Losing to the #52 RPI team (who can often be an at large) isn’t really viewed as bad, historically. It’s the sub-100 losses (but as you can see in the past with LMU, Ball State, Tennessee, even recently, those are forgiven). Even High Point who had 0T50 wins and a bad loss was forgiven, simply because of RPI. The committee was moving away from being so dependent on RPI, but this one seemed to step back.

...

What kills me is that this committee was so dependent on RPI AND lied about it even though the proof is in the bracket. I have zero trust in anything that Holly Strauss-O'Brien says now after the clear and blatant lies.

[jayj79]

I'm fine with the committee using RPI as a prime factor in determining at-large spots.
It is a system that at least gives mid-majors some semblance of a chance if they schedule smartly (and have some luck in how their opponents seasons turn out).

[pcll0718]

Nov 28, 2023 15:19:20 GMT -5 @madden55 said:

okay but why did KSU lose some of these matches lmao. Also how did they lose to Houston so badly including a 25-11 set when jackson didn't play.... idk how you sweep texas and BYU but do that lmao

How did Kentucky lose to Colorado State?

[Deleted]

Nov 28, 2023 20:27:20 GMT -5 pcll0718 said:

Nov 28, 2023 15:19:20 GMT -5 @madden55 said:

okay but why did KSU lose some of these matches lmao. Also how did they lose to Houston so badly including a 25-11 set when jackson didn't play.... idk how you sweep texas and BYU but do that lmao

How did Kentucky lose to Colorado State?

bc it was the first match of the season in front of 7000 fans and Kentucky was bad in the preseason? lol that’s one match. I just don’t get how KSU sweeps Texas and has some of those other results

[VballObssessed]

Nov 27, 2023 18:08:21 GMT -5 avid 2.0 said:

I love to see young adults speak up for themselves. Good for her and her other teammates that did the same.