Kansas 2024

[bluepenquin]

Sept 11, 2024 10:36:37 GMT -5 buttery said:

Sept 11, 2024 10:12:47 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Pablo certainly sees this team in the same vein as 2015 and 2016.  The 2015 team didn't have the schedule to get a higher seed and the 2016 team started showing some cracks (and injuries) late in the year.

As for Regional seed - if Kansas is really as good as Pablo currently has them, then the major issue other than getting to a 25-3 overall record - is going to be top 25 or even top 10 wins.  This makes beating Creighton (and probably Purdue) so important.  

It would appear that RPI Futures in conjunction with Pablo is picking up one great (relatively easy) schedule going forward - that I am not sure is really the case (I still feel Iowa State and Kansas State are good teams that have underperformed thus far).

Just looking at their schedule - the remaining tough games, they are almost entirely at Home.  We start with the 2X teams of West Virginia, UCF, Kansas State, and Iowa State (none of these teams are near the top in the conference per RPI Futures).  Of the top teams in the conference - they get BYU, Baylor, TCU, Utah (who has been moving up the fastest in the conference), and Houston at home.  The only top team left on their schedule that is on the road is Arizona State.

Not to diminish these teams after ASU - but here are the road teams they face on the schedule: Arizona State, Kansas State, Iowa State, UCF, Colorado, Arizona, Texas Tech, Cincinnati, West Virginia.

This is a remaining schedule that is conducive for a top 10 team (in Pablo) to finish the season 25-3 or better with a minimal amount of luck.  They are favored in every game on the schedule - except Arizona State (maybe).  I believe they could be 65%+ favored (per Pablo) in every match except @ Arizona State.  

This would be a really good season to have a great home court advantage and play their best at home.  

Appreciate the analysis here - I actually think besides Creighton and Purdue (which I’m calling “opportunities”) and obviously ASU, I’m most concerned about K-State and Iowa State on the road and what it could do to KU’s RPI to lose even 1 of those. Those are tough places for anyone to play and KU’s first time playing at the new gym in Manhattan scares the hell out of me, despite K-State appearing to be worse this year than last…we can expect the environment to be super hostile, especially if KU could potentially be a Top 10 team by then.

Per Pablo - ranking of the toughest games left on the schedule:

1) @ Arizona State
2) Creighton
3) Purdue
4) @ Kansas State
5) BYU
6) Baylor
7) @ Iowa State
8) TCU

If they have a fixed number of losses of 3 - I would say that losing to Kansas State and Iowa State would be the best case scenario for Kansas.  Not only would this do the least amount of damage - it is also important to have the maximum # of Top 25 wins on the resume.  The 'bad' from losing to K-State and Iowa State (and these wouldn't be that bad of a loss) is less than the good from beating any of those other teams.  

In my mind - beating Creighton and Purdue is critical.

[WI FIB]

From my observations last weekend, Purdue is definitely a winnable match, Creighton will be possible, but difficult. But Kansas is a really good team, and will likely wind up in the top ten, IMO.

[buttery]

Kansas had a routine win over Libscomb yesterday afternoon. No big notes - KU hit .373. Davis, Bien, Elnady hit above .375 and Onabanjo with .675. Burgess was the only downer hitting only .200 off of 10 swings.

The Jayhawks have definitely put more pressure on the service line and it’s good to see them using this as a weapon this season. Elnady had 8 services aces. Obviously not top opponents, but I’m glad to see KU putting more pressure on teams on the serve and pass game - their passing is top notch, so they can make their lives a lot easier in Big 12 play with some sweeps from teams who simply can’t pass.

Interesting yesterday that McCarthy suited up in set 2 as the second libero for Burns (McCarthy was digging, Burns passing). This only happened a few rotations, but long-term - hopefully it is an opportunity for Burns to get some rest and prevent accumulated injuries like last year. McCarthy has length at 6’0”.

Gigantic weekend coming up. Shout-out again to KUAthletics for some how getting both games at KU’s gym (but shame for not streaming Purdue/Creighton on ESPN+). Excited and worried at the same time - Creighton and Purdue have both played at least 1 elite opponent and KU hasn’t really played anyone close to that level. I’d like to think KU has a slight edge over Creighton and Purdue from a serve receive standpoint, but the hitters they will face are going to be on a different level than what we’ve seen to this point. I’m keeping my eye on 2 players this weekend.

1. Burgess - I’m a little worried about her lateral blocking speed and feel like in those 3 rotations, Creighton and Purdue will have a big edge. We need her to hit ~.400 or above if she is the more offensive preference vs. Aiono being probably preferred from a blocking standpoint.

2. Davis - she has to hit at a decent clip vs. these better teams in order to give us some balance. Turner’s gonna run the slide to Onabanjo and Burgess a ton, but she has been stuff blocked more times than I’d like to see on much less physical opponents. If she’s hitting decently, I think we have a shot to win both.

Also - like 2021, it seems Creighton doesn’t really swing block. Interested to hear a coach’s perspective, but what are pros and cons to that?

[bluepenquin]

Sept 16, 2024 12:01:50 GMT -5 buttery said:

Kansas had a routine win over Libscomb yesterday afternoon. No big notes - KU hit .373. Davis, Bien, Elnady hit above .375 and Onabanjo with .675. Burgess was the only downer hitting only .200 off of 10 swings.

The Jayhawks have definitely put more pressure on the service line and it’s good to see them using this as a weapon this season. Elnady had 8 services aces. Obviously not top opponents, but I’m glad to see KU putting more pressure on teams on the serve and pass game - their passing is top notch, so they can make their lives a lot easier in Big 12 play with some sweeps from teams who simply can’t pass.

Interesting yesterday that McCarthy suited up in set 2 as the second libero for Burns (McCarthy was digging, Burns passing). This only happened a few rotations, but long-term - hopefully it is an opportunity for Burns to get some rest and prevent accumulated injuries like last year. McCarthy has length at 6’0”.

Gigantic weekend coming up. Shout-out again to KUAthletics for some how getting both games at KU’s gym (but shame for not streaming Purdue/Creighton on ESPN+). Excited and worried at the same time - Creighton and Purdue have both played at least 1 elite opponent and KU hasn’t really played anyone close to that level. I’d like to think KU has a slight edge over Creighton and Purdue from a serve receive standpoint, but the hitters they will face are going to be on a different level than what we’ve seen to this point. I’m keeping my eye on 2 players this weekend.

1. Burgess - I’m a little worried about her lateral blocking speed and feel like in those 3 rotations, Creighton and Purdue will have a big edge. We need her to hit ~.400 or above if she is the more offensive preference vs. Aiono being probably preferred from a blocking standpoint.

2. Davis - she has to hit at a decent clip vs. these better teams in order to give us some balance. Turner’s gonna run the slide to Onabanjo and Burgess a ton, but she has been stuff blocked more times than I’d like to see on much less physical opponents. If she’s hitting decently, I think we have a shot to win both.

Also - like 2021, it seems Creighton doesn’t really swing block. Interested to hear a coach’s perspective, but what are pros and cons to that?

McCarthy playing as a 2nd Libero had to be totally about the game being a blow out then some strategy going forward (I think that is what you are saying - the strategy is rest for Burns).

Watching on TV, very surprised that Burgess hit that low.  When comparing her to Freshman Crawford - Burgess is a more effective offensive player and Crawford is a more effective blocker (plus Crawford is a great athlete).  Crawford also had exceptional hands, which isn't all that important these days with no double contracts on the 2nd ball.

Davis is always the wildcard for this team.  I think they need to have at least 4 of their 5 hitters 'clicking'.  I wouldn't even consider not playing Burgess (she is too good).

These are two critical matches for Kansas.  Their entire schedule has basically collapsed and these two teams are important to get as wins on the resume.  Should be a lot of fun to watch - just have to take them 1 at a time.  BTW - Kansas gets these two matches in 3 days.  Purdue and Creighton are playing their two big matches on consecutive days.  This - is also an advantage for Kansas like being at home.

[buttery]

Sept 16, 2024 13:27:21 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Sept 16, 2024 12:01:50 GMT -5 buttery said:

Kansas had a routine win over Libscomb yesterday afternoon. No big notes - KU hit .373. Davis, Bien, Elnady hit above .375 and Onabanjo with .675. Burgess was the only downer hitting only .200 off of 10 swings.

The Jayhawks have definitely put more pressure on the service line and it’s good to see them using this as a weapon this season. Elnady had 8 services aces. Obviously not top opponents, but I’m glad to see KU putting more pressure on teams on the serve and pass game - their passing is top notch, so they can make their lives a lot easier in Big 12 play with some sweeps from teams who simply can’t pass.

Interesting yesterday that McCarthy suited up in set 2 as the second libero for Burns (McCarthy was digging, Burns passing). This only happened a few rotations, but long-term - hopefully it is an opportunity for Burns to get some rest and prevent accumulated injuries like last year. McCarthy has length at 6’0”.

Gigantic weekend coming up. Shout-out again to KUAthletics for some how getting both games at KU’s gym (but shame for not streaming Purdue/Creighton on ESPN+). Excited and worried at the same time - Creighton and Purdue have both played at least 1 elite opponent and KU hasn’t really played anyone close to that level. I’d like to think KU has a slight edge over Creighton and Purdue from a serve receive standpoint, but the hitters they will face are going to be on a different level than what we’ve seen to this point. I’m keeping my eye on 2 players this weekend.

1. Burgess - I’m a little worried about her lateral blocking speed and feel like in those 3 rotations, Creighton and Purdue will have a big edge. We need her to hit ~.400 or above if she is the more offensive preference vs. Aiono being probably preferred from a blocking standpoint.

2. Davis - she has to hit at a decent clip vs. these better teams in order to give us some balance. Turner’s gonna run the slide to Onabanjo and Burgess a ton, but she has been stuff blocked more times than I’d like to see on much less physical opponents. If she’s hitting decently, I think we have a shot to win both.

Also - like 2021, it seems Creighton doesn’t really swing block. Interested to hear a coach’s perspective, but what are pros and cons to that?

McCarthy playing as a 2nd Libero had to be totally about the game being a blow out then some strategy going forward (I think that is what you are saying - the strategy is rest for Burns).

Watching on TV, very surprised that Burgess hit that low.  When comparing her to Freshman Crawford - Burgess is a more effective offensive player and Crawford is a more effective blocker (plus Crawford is a great athlete).  Crawford also had exceptional hands, which isn't all that important these days with no double contracts on the 2nd ball.

Davis is always the wildcard for this team.  I think they need to have at least 4 of their 5 hitters 'clicking'.  I wouldn't even consider not playing Burgess (she is too good).

These are two critical matches for Kansas.  Their entire schedule has basically collapsed and these two teams are important to get as wins on the resume.  Should be a lot of fun to watch - just have to take them 1 at a time.  BTW - Kansas gets these two matches in 3 days.  Purdue and Creighton are playing their two big matches on consecutive days.  This - is also an advantage for Kansas like being at home.

Yeah you put it more eloquently than me on Burns/McCarthy.

It is good that KU plays Purdue and Creighton on Thursday/Saturday, but they also play an 8-1 Tulsa on Friday so not much of a rest. I find it a little interesting that Tulsa doesn’t play Creighton on Thursday…if they did, it could easily go down as the toughest weekend schedule of the week.

Oh - also, Dalton didn’t fully suit up.

[bluepenquin]

Pablo % chance for Kansas winning this week.

Purdue - 65%
Tulsa - 97%
Creighton - 50%

Pablo has Creighton as the #4 team in the country (Kansas #6) and the better team, but HCA covers the difference. Purdue as the #9 team in the country.

This should be a heck of tournament - really looking forward to it.

[friendlybanter]

Im excited for Kansas this weekend. I hope they go out and shock everyone. NO ONE outside of this thread is even talking about Kansas everyone is much more excited for the Purdue/Creighton match up. This is a veteran Kansas squad, who still have a bit of underdog in them even while being a top 10 team. This is a very good opportunity at home, football team is on the road so all the attention will be on the volleyball team. I hope they come out and show everyone they are a very viable squad. Im excited to see the outcome. I hope Kansas can come out and sweep the weekend, but im hoping for at least a 2-1 weekend.

[buttery]

Crazy insane numbers when it mattered most from London Davis. This team stepped up and played a very very good match and beat a great Purdue team.

I’m glad we got the win obviously for RPI and record sake, but also just think KU getting big time wins is good for volleyball. KU plays a much more international style with their focus on ball control and backcourt defense, especially compared to a lot of these other Top 10 teams where they really just have pins who can crush some balls.

Now please, let’s not lose to Tulsa.

[bucky415]

The play in which Swanson elevates to hit over the block working well for KU. Blowout win in the first set for KU. 8s in the second.

[bucky415]

15-13 KU set 2

[bucky415]

18s

[bucky415]

22-20 KU

[bucky415]

25-22 and 2-0 KU over Tulsa. Great digs on both sides down the stretch.

[bucky415]

4-0 KU set 3. On point 3, diving dig by Bien to perfect transition opportunity for the kill

[bucky415]

7-1 KU