Bracketology (3/18)

[vballfreak808]

2024 Bracketology (3/18)
Shoutout to trojansc for being my inspiration on the indoor forum

This is still very early in the season and many more exciting matches to be played so things will change over the weeks. This is based on if the tournament started today

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BRACKET:
(1) USC vs Winner of (16) Boise State vs (17) UT Martin
(8) Cal Poly vs (9) LSU

(5) Florida State vs (12) FIU
(4) TCU vs (13) Hawai’i

(3) Stanford vs (14) Georgia State
(6) Long Beach State vs (11) Arizona State

(7) Cal vs (10) LMU
(2) UCLA vs (15) Stetson

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AUTOMATIC BIDS:
ASUN: Stetson
Big West: Long Beach State
CCSA: Florida State
C-USA: TCU
Ohio Valley: UT Martin
Pac-12: USC
Southland: Boise State
Sun Belt: Georgia State
WCC: LMU

At-Large:
Big West: Cal Poly, Hawai'i
CCSA: LSU
C-USA: FIU
Pac-12: UCLA, Stanford, Cal, Arizona State

First Four Out: Washington, FAU, GCU, Arizona

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RESUMES

LOCKED
----- (LISTED IN ALPHA ORDER) -----

Stanford
Significant Wins: UCLA (x2), USC, TCU, LMU, Cal, Hawai'i
Losses: UCLA, Arizona State

UCLA
Significant Wins: USC, Stanford, FSU, LMU, Cal, LSU, LBSU, Cal Poly, Arizona State, Hawai'i (x2), Washington, GCU, Georgia State
Losses: USC, Stanford (x2), LMU

USC* (Pac-12 Auto Bid)
Significant Wins: UCLA, TCU, LBSU, LMU (x2), Cal Poly, FIU, Hawai'i, GCU, Washington, FAU
Losses: UCLA, Stanford

TOP OF THE BUBBLE

----- (LISTED IN ALPHA ORDER) -----

Arizona State
Significant Wins: Stanford, FAU, Georgia State
Losses: UCLA, LBSU, Cal

Cal
Significant Wins: FSU, LMU, Arizona State, Hawai'i, Georgia State
Losses: UCLA, Stanford, Cal Poly, LSU

Cal Poly

Significant Wins: Cal, FIU, Stetson, GCU

Losses: UCLA, USC

Florida State* (CCSA Auto Bid)
Significant Wins: LMU, Hawai'i, FAU, Georgia State, Stetson
Losses: UCLA, Cal

LBSU* (BW Auto Bid)
Significant Wins: LMU, Arizona State, FIU, Stetson, Georgia State, GCU
Losses: USC, UCLA

LMU* (WCC Auto Bid)

Significant Wins: UCLA, Hawai’i, Washington, GCU (x2), Stetson, Georgia State

Losses: Stanford, USC (x2), Cal, FIU, LBSU, FSU, LSU

LSU

Significant Wins: Cal, LMU, Washington

Losses: UCLA, TCU, Hawai'i

TCU* (C-USA Auto Bid)
Significant Wins: LSU, Washington, FAU
Losses: USC, Stanford

BOTTOM OF THE BUBBLE 

----- (LISTED IN ALPHA ORDER) -----

FIU
Significant Wins: LMU, FAU
Losses: LBSU, Cal Poly, USC

Georgia State* (Sun Belt Auto Bid)
Significant Wins: FAU, GCU, Stetson
Losses: UCLA, FSU, LBSU, Cal, LMU, Arizona State, Hawai'i, FAU

Hawai’i
Significant Wins: LSU, Georgia State
Losses: UCLA (x2), USC, FSU, Cal, LMU

Washington
Significant Wins: GCU
Losses: TCU, LSU, LMU, UCLA (x2), LBSU, USC

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UPCOMING KEY MATCHES

LBSU vs Cal Poly
LBSU vs Hawai'i
Cal Poly vs Hawai'i

TCU vs FIU
TCU vs Arizona State
TCU vs Washington
Arizona State vs FIU
Arizona State vs Washington
FIU vs Washington

FSU vs LSU
FSU vs GCU
LSU vs GCU

[beachcomber]

Do we know for sure that the CCSA is still getting an AQ? It probably doesn't really matter, but just curious.

Things that could happen that might impact the scenarios: If Stetson gets upset in the ASUN (very possible), then the winner of the Southland might jump to the 15 seed, leaving the ASUN winner in the play-in game. The same could be true of the Sun Belt winner if it is not GSU (but this is less likely). If the third team in CUSA (currently FAU) wins out, it would put another bubble team in jeopardy (currently maybe Hawaii).

[vballfreak808]

Mar 18, 2024 9:13:09 GMT -5 beachcomber said:

Do we know for sure that the CCSA is still getting an AQ? It probably doesn't really matter, but just curious.

Things that could happen that might impact the scenarios: If Stetson gets upset in the ASUN (very possible), then the winner of the Southland might jump to the 15 seed, leaving the ASUN winner in the play-in game. The same could be true of the Sun Belt winner if it is not GSU (but this is less likely). If the third team in CUSA (currently FAU) wins out, it would put another bubble team in jeopardy (currently maybe Hawaii).

NCAA website lists 9 automatic bids and 8 at-larges so CCSA should have that AQ.

I thought of that too for the Sun Belt, FAU could be a spoiler for another team's potential at-large spot. Georgia State IMO has a slightly better resume than Washington at this moment but Washington has about 9 more ranked teams (not including the Pac-12 tournament) to boost their resume.

As for the ASUN, FGCU has been playing a little better as of recently and have some good teams coming up, I think if they upset Stetson and beat say Georgia State or FAU, they can possibly keep that 15 seed.

The TCU tournament coming up could make things interesting with TCU, FIU, ASU, UW. All teams who still need to boost their resume up a bit. If they all beat each other it can make things interesting.

Hawai'i has Cal Poly & LBSU this weekend (plus USC tomorrow) and right now both CP & LBSU beat FIU while FIU beat LMU who beat UH. So if UH beats one of the two, I think it helps even up their at-large chances with FIU (unless FIU beats TCU or ASU).

[beachcomber]

Thanks for this breakdown, btw. It's fun to see. Still so much great volleyball to be played!

I guess at this point we won't contemplate Pepperdine upsetting LMU, but if they did, that would also be messy.

I am not even sure Stetson is better than Boise State or TAMCC right now. They've had a pretty rough go against ranked teams (their only ranked win is against Tampa, 3-2) and this weekend they barely managed to beat Jacksonville (3-2), North Alabama (3-2) and UNCW (4-1) at home. The Hatters are still the ASUN favorite, but I smell an upset coming there.

This is why scheduling is so important. The Hatters at least have a chance to stick in the Top 20 or move up even higher because they have a bunch of games coming up against other bubble teams like GCU, Arizona, GSU... The Southwest teams and the others in the ASUN just don't have enough games against ranked opponents to boost their resume.

[usc181761]

Very interesting thank you for sharing