Post by noblesol on Apr 9, 2024 15:03:41 GMT -5
Going into the BWCT, it is likely to be Beach the #1 seed, UCI #2 seed. Even if it's not a lock currently, the odds are high that's how it will break.
The BWCT #1 seed plays the winner of the #4 vs. #5; the #2 seed plays the winner of the #3 vs. #6.
Current odds favor Hawai'i being #3 seed, and UCSB #6. UCSD and CSUN, #4 and #5.
If the quarterfinals play to chalk, then for the semis it's UCSD vs. Beach, and Hawaii vs. UCI.
Odds would favor Beach over UCSD, and Beach progressing to the final.
Hawai'i vs. UCI is a coin flip match, but with the home court giving Hawai'i a slight bit of encouragement.
Odds are it's Hawai'i or UCI in the final vs. Beach.
Win or lose, Beach is likely to get a bid to the NCAAT.
Hawaii needs to sweep UCSD this weekend, and be in the BWCT Final, to have favorable at-large chances.
UCI likely needs to win one off Beach this weekend, and be in the BWCT Final, to have
Beach lost to Irvine in the BWCT last year, not sure why people would think Beach winning 2x vs. a very good Irvine team is 'likely' in a home and home series.
ahve to play the games, if Beach wants to feel good about the NCAAs, they better beat Irvine at least once. lots of things can happen. to feel good about an at-large, I'd want to be solidly and without question the #1 at-large candidate, and Beach is simply not in that position ..........yet. too many things and upsets can happen as history has shown.
I think Irvine needs to beat Beach 2x to have any at-large chance. a 10 loss Irvine as an at-large? just don't see it
In a three match series, Massey has Beach over UCI in 2 out 3, 58% to 42%. Beach likely wins the series, winning night #1 and night #2 on their home court on senior night.
Massey doesn't predict which of the 2 out of 3 Beach would likely win in a three match series, but the old cliche' is it's hard to beat a team 3x in a row, with the last of three being the hardest to win. So, Beach is likely favored to win the first 2 of 3 in a three match series with the last matchup being the most competitive. If that match is with UCI in the final, on a neutral court, with UCI playing for its NCAAT life and Beach in a much less precarious at-large position, UCI would likely be very competitive.
Agree that UCI should be motivated to defeat Beach 2x this weekend IOT maximize its at-large chances. They'll need at least one win over Beach in conference to be in the at-large consideration, and probably need two wins to have a 'favorable' outlook.
