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Post by bbg95 on Apr 15, 2024 20:24:01 GMT -5
THERE'S NO REASON THE SUN BELT SHOULD BE SCHOOLING THE BIG TEN IN RPI SCHEDULING True. We saw this with the Big East and ACC in men's basketball too with NET. Those conferences made up half of the Elite 8 (including a dominant national champion) but only had as many total bids combined as the Big 12 (zero Elite 8 appearances, though their best programs got injured) did because the Big 12 did a much better of gaming the system. The SEC also got eight bids and underperformed pretty badly. The Mountain West managed to get six bids. Etc. |
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Post by ay2013 on Apr 15, 2024 21:01:09 GMT -5
The conference coaches, when they complain about getting snubbed in November, will have to accept that they did it to themselves by not gaming the conference schedule - when every other conference is doing so. I think we'll see double-digit SEC bids - Big Ten? Not so much. The lower teams also need to play their part and schedule WINS in the non-conference. A rising RPI tide will lift all boats, just win. for the SEC bids, maybe in the future, but for next year? hmmmm... gaming of the RPI because of conference schedule notwithstanding, these teams still need to be GOOD enough to qualify. Alabama, Ole Miss, South Carolina, LSU, Mississippi State, Oklahoma all had losing records last year...and Arkansas loses pretty much its entire starting lineup from this prior year. I'd like to see what the non-conference slate looks like before making a prediction, but I wouldn't be surprised to see 4/5 teams not even qualify for the tournament based on sheer overall record alone. |
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Post by c4ndlelight on Apr 15, 2024 21:12:18 GMT -5
The conference coaches, when they complain about getting snubbed in November, will have to accept that they did it to themselves by not gaming the conference schedule - when every other conference is doing so. I think we'll see double-digit SEC bids - Big Ten? Not so much. The lower teams also need to play their part and schedule WINS in the non-conference. A rising RPI tide will lift all boats, just win. for the SEC bids, maybe in the future, but for next year? hmmmm... gaming of the RPI because of conference schedule notwithstanding, these teams still need to be GOOD enough to qualify. Alabama, Ole Miss, South Carolina, LSU, Mississippi State, Oklahoma all had losing records last year...and Arkansas loses pretty much its entire starting lineup from this prior year. I'd like to see what the non-conference slate looks like before making a prediction, but I wouldn't be surprised to see 4/5 teams not even qualify for the tournament based on sheer overall record alone. It doesn’t matter how good they are if they can schedule themselves 12 wins in non con. Most won’t be that great but one or two can pull an auburn. |
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Post by n00b on Apr 15, 2024 21:13:15 GMT -5
Alabama, Ole Miss, South Carolina, LSU, Mississippi State, Oklahoma all had losing records last year... The teams you listed were a combined 21 games above .500 in non-conference matches last year. There will always be last-place finishers in every conference. But when those last-place finishers can bring winning records into conference play, it provides a HUGE boost to the overall conference RPI. |
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Post by ay2013 on Apr 15, 2024 21:22:40 GMT -5
Alabama, Ole Miss, South Carolina, LSU, Mississippi State, Oklahoma all had losing records last year... The teams you listed were a combined 21 games above .500 in non-conference matches last year. There will always be last-place finishers in every conference. But when those last-place finishers can bring winning records into conference play, it provides a HUGE boost to the overall conference RPI. I'm very aware of that, however my comment was NOT about the impact on the conference RPI, it was about the number of bids the SEC would/could be getting in any given year. Double digit bids for the SEC, at least for next year, seems pretty high. I get that of the tournament quality SEC teams, they will likely have inflated RPI's, but what I don't quite see (at least not yet) is the conference getting significantly more bids because of reduced conference matches. In the big grand scheme of things, does the conference probably get an additional seeded team and an additional bid every year? probably. In the context of actual national volleyball, I don't see much of a difference. Texas is likely to be in the hunt for a regional host in any given year, Florida and Kentucky will likely be in the hunt to be seeded in any given year, and there may be one or two additional SEC teams that are actually regional quality in any given year (and I'd say this regardless of the conference schedule manipulation). The mere fact that these teams may go in to tournament selection with higher/inflated RPI isn't going to change the needle on where they would have likely been even with a 20 team conference schedule. |
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Apr 15, 2024 22:06:17 GMT -5
I actually think it might be 200+. A team that is top 25 in Pablo, but has 12 losses and #73 in the RPI is very difficult to beat, and even if you do win, you'll get no credit from the committee for a quality win. It might be better to schedule an almost certain win against a .500 team from the OVC. And part of why WKU's schedule was good is because they didn't schedule any teams that were in the bottom half of a Power 5 conference. i guess i don't see any major risk when WKU isnt really ever a bubble team. Maybe a loss to IU would hurt, but I'm alao talking about next year, not last year. I think scheduling a mid tier P5 is always a risk, but I see WKU as a team that can afford that risk. If they go too high head hunting, they may not earn a seed even with RPI in distance. but why do we care about quality wins anyways in terms of at large bids - .. see: VCU, Ball State, SFA. |
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Post by Norah Sus on Apr 15, 2024 23:30:39 GMT -5
I actually think it might be 200+. A team that is top 25 in Pablo, but has 12 losses and #73 in the RPI is very difficult to beat, and even if you do win, you'll get no credit from the committee for a quality win. It might be better to schedule an almost certain win against a .500 team from the OVC. And part of why WKU's schedule was good is because they didn't schedule any teams that were in the bottom half of a Power 5 conference. I agree. I think if they're going to risk the loss, they'd rather play a team that is certain to finish top 50 in RPI if not top 25. Purdue >>> Indiana. But don’t forget - Scheduling is two sided. You don’t just get to pick an opponent. They also have to pick you. This is not directed at you but more the thread overall. |
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Post by bbg95 on Apr 15, 2024 23:40:23 GMT -5
I agree. I think if they're going to risk the loss, they'd rather play a team that is certain to finish top 50 in RPI if not top 25. Purdue >>> Indiana. But don’t forget - Scheduling is two sided. You don’t just get to pick an opponent. They also have to pick you. This is not directed at you but more the thread overall. No argument. It seems to me that WKU would be an attractive opponent for many teams, since they nearly always have a very good record. |
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Apr 16, 2024 0:42:57 GMT -5
also like wait.. Indiana had a 21-12 record last year. That's not bad at all. The RPI points lost for a loss to a team like that are pretty marginal. I'm still not saying it's a great team to schedule, but the more I look at it... it's pretty meh.
*Ohio State* was the absolute AWFUL team to schedule in 2023, but that's because Indiana played a weak non-conference while Ohio State went head-hunting. That's where scheduling gets tricky, do teams regress, do your planned opponents over/underschedule, etc.
It seems like WKU would be benefitted to schedule a mix of teams. Try to get a top 5ish team on your schedule, a few top 16-25ish, then a few more 25-50 teams incl. even a mid-range risk teams like Indiana, UCLA, etc, and that still leaves you half of your non-conference schedule.
But WKU's army of mid-major opponents is really the most ideal way to go I guess. If Hudson was TRYING to schedule to get a seed last year, he might have almost cracked the code with those RPI goldmines. But, in the past, it didn't seem like he was trying to schedule like that, which, is interesting because WKU is one of the very best teams to schedule in the non-conference.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Apr 16, 2024 9:24:20 GMT -5
The conference coaches, when they complain about getting snubbed in November, will have to accept that they did it to themselves by not gaming the conference schedule - when every other conference is doing so. I think we'll see double-digit SEC bids - Big Ten? Not so much. The lower teams also need to play their part and schedule WINS in the non-conference. A rising RPI tide will lift all boats, just win. Not necessarily fully in the loop - but did I read the ACC went with a 20 game conference season? I don't think they are among those gaming the system? Did the SEC drop to just 16 games? I know the Big 12 expanded to 18 games. |
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Post by c4ndlelight on Apr 16, 2024 9:26:23 GMT -5
The conference coaches, when they complain about getting snubbed in November, will have to accept that they did it to themselves by not gaming the conference schedule - when every other conference is doing so. I think we'll see double-digit SEC bids - Big Ten? Not so much. The lower teams also need to play their part and schedule WINS in the non-conference. A rising RPI tide will lift all boats, just win. Not necessarily fully in the loop - but did I read the ACC went with a 20 game conference season? I don't think they are among those gaming the system? Did the SEC drop to just 16 games? I know the Big 12 expanded to 18 games. SEC went to 16 games with 15 teams. |
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Post by bluepenquin on Apr 16, 2024 9:31:23 GMT -5
I am too lazy to look this up - how many at large teams in the field? I am thinking 32 auto and 32 at large? Seems like we could start with the number of at large teams and get a reasonable idea of how many the non P4 conferences would get - then start diving up what is available for the p4 conferences - then see what a reasonable max is for the B1G and SEC.
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Post by bbg95 on Apr 16, 2024 9:35:23 GMT -5
I am too lazy to look this up - how many at large teams in the field? I am thinking 32 auto and 32 at large? Seems like we could start with the number of at large teams and get a reasonable idea of how many the non P4 conferences would get - then start diving up what is available for the p4 conferences - then see what a reasonable max is for the B1G and SEC. I think that's what it's been, but there should be 33 at-large bids now due to the demise of the Pac-12. |
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Post by bluepenquin on Apr 16, 2024 9:57:57 GMT -5
Spit balling here - if we went with 5 non p4 conference at larges - that leaves only 28 left for the big conferences. That would be an average of 8 teams per conference.
If the B1G expands to 10 total bids - then we have to start subtracting from the other 3 conferences. I don't expect the SEC, B12, and ACC to be getting less teams in the tournament in the short run (they probably end up getting more teams in the tournament).
10 teams seems like a ceiling for the B1G - and 9 probably the mean on the # of teams getting in each year.
A ton of moving parts on what RPI will look like - I suspect we will get a MUCH better idea in early September, maybe a bit earlier (via RPI Futures).
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Post by n00b on Apr 16, 2024 11:41:37 GMT -5
The conference coaches, when they complain about getting snubbed in November, will have to accept that they did it to themselves by not gaming the conference schedule - when every other conference is doing so. I think we'll see double-digit SEC bids - Big Ten? Not so much. The lower teams also need to play their part and schedule WINS in the non-conference. A rising RPI tide will lift all boats, just win. Not necessarily fully in the loop - but did I read the ACC went with a 20 game conference season? I don't think they are among those gaming the system? Did the SEC drop to just 16 games? I know the Big 12 expanded to 18 games. It’s plays a role, but I’m not certain the difference between 16, 18, and 20 conference matches make a huge difference. Things that do: - Maximizing non-conference wins. When the Pac-12 played 22 matches, I think the bigger issue was only 3 weekends of non-conference - Maximizing the top teams playing each other more often. The easiest way to do this would be a conference tournament with byes and double byes. But if you’re playing a single round robin +3 like the Big Ten, you can commit fully to unbalanced schedules. |
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