NCAA is close to settlement, possible new model

[mplsgopher]

I’m not going to dig for it but pretty confident the 12 schools in the PAC this school year will vote as that group. The PAC was a named defendant and the back pay applies to that group as it existed, in that sense.

Going forward I believe USC for example would have the same bill in the Big Ten as it would have if no one left in the PAC.

It should be all but a done deal at this point. Schools will be making direct payments to athletes and not in the form of scholarship.

[n00b]

Then again, the payout logistics could be a big sticking point for Washington State and Oregon State. They stand to lose the absolute most of anybody in the country. They got screwed in realignment, but the silver lining is that they'd collect all of the Pac-12 tournament units and split that amount between the two of them. However, this means that the two of them would be losing the payout of 1/2 of the entire conference's reduced payout. Whereas USC and UCLA will only be losing out on 1/18th of the Big Ten's payout amount.

[mplsgopher]

[bluepenquin]

May 23, 2024 11:22:42 GMT -5 n00b said:

Then again, the payout logistics could be a big sticking point for Washington State and Oregon State. They stand to lose the absolute most of anybody in the country. They got screwed in realignment, but the silver lining is that they'd collect all of the Pac-12 tournament units and split that amount between the two of them. However, this means that the two of them would be losing the payout of 1/2 of the entire conference's reduced payout. Whereas USC and UCLA will only be losing out on 1/18th of the Big Ten's payout amount.

There is no way that NCAA projected revenue reductions for the PAC-12 of ~ $100m are going to be charged entirely to Oregon State and Washington State, while the $150m for the B1G will be split 18 ways.

Since this is related to the past to be paid out of the future - I am guessing that the 10 schools splitting from the PAC will be liable for the 1/12 of the PAC reductions.  Texas and Oklahoma will stay in the B12 penalties, etc...

This would also make me think that these schools are voting with their current conferences and not where they will be starting in July 2024.  

[ridaxx3]

May 23, 2024 12:07:22 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

May 23, 2024 11:22:42 GMT -5 n00b said:

Then again, the payout logistics could be a big sticking point for Washington State and Oregon State. They stand to lose the absolute most of anybody in the country. They got screwed in realignment, but the silver lining is that they'd collect all of the Pac-12 tournament units and split that amount between the two of them. However, this means that the two of them would be losing the payout of 1/2 of the entire conference's reduced payout. Whereas USC and UCLA will only be losing out on 1/18th of the Big Ten's payout amount.

There is no way that NCAA projected revenue reductions for the PAC-12 of ~ $100m are going to be charged entirely to Oregon State and Washington State, while the $150m for the B1G will be split 18 ways.

Since this is related to the past to be paid out of the future - I am guessing that the 10 schools splitting from the PAC will be liable for the 1/12 of the PAC reductions.  Texas and Oklahoma will stay in the B12 penalties, etc...

This would also make me think that these schools are voting with their current conferences and not where they will be starting in July 2024.  

Texas and Oklahoma were part of the Big 12 vote because they were still part of the conference when it took place but they abstained from the vote as well, which means it may not be this way? Curious why they wouldn't vote if they would be directly impacted. 

[n00b]

May 23, 2024 12:07:22 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

May 23, 2024 11:22:42 GMT -5 n00b said:

Then again, the payout logistics could be a big sticking point for Washington State and Oregon State. They stand to lose the absolute most of anybody in the country. They got screwed in realignment, but the silver lining is that they'd collect all of the Pac-12 tournament units and split that amount between the two of them. However, this means that the two of them would be losing the payout of 1/2 of the entire conference's reduced payout. Whereas USC and UCLA will only be losing out on 1/18th of the Big Ten's payout amount.

There is no way that NCAA projected revenue reductions for the PAC-12 of ~ $100m are going to be charged entirely to Oregon State and Washington State, while the $150m for the B1G will be split 18 ways.

Since this is related to the past to be paid out of the future - I am guessing that the 10 schools splitting from the PAC will be liable for the 1/12 of the PAC reductions.  Texas and Oklahoma will stay in the B12 penalties, etc...

This would also make me think that these schools are voting with their current conferences and not where they will be starting in July 2024.  

I just think that isn't how these NCAA distributions work. They distribute to conferences and number of members doesn't matter. One tournament unit to the 8-team Ivy League is the same amount as one tournament unit to the 13-team MAAC. And thus 20 tournament units to the 18-member Big Ten will be the same amount as 20 tournament units to the 2-member Pac-12.

The NCAA could change that, but it would be up to Washington St and Oregon St to make sure they do.

[bluepenquin]

May 23, 2024 13:22:10 GMT -5 n00b said:

May 23, 2024 12:07:22 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

There is no way that NCAA projected revenue reductions for the PAC-12 of ~ $100m are going to be charged entirely to Oregon State and Washington State, while the $150m for the B1G will be split 18 ways.

Since this is related to the past to be paid out of the future - I am guessing that the 10 schools splitting from the PAC will be liable for the 1/12 of the PAC reductions.  Texas and Oklahoma will stay in the B12 penalties, etc...

This would also make me think that these schools are voting with their current conferences and not where they will be starting in July 2024.  

I just think that isn't how these NCAA distributions work. They distribute to conferences and number of members doesn't matter. One tournament unit to the 8-team Ivy League is the same amount as one tournament unit to the 13-team MAAC. And thus 20 tournament units to the 18-member Big Ten will be the same amount as 20 tournament units to the 2-member Pac-12.

The NCAA could change that, but it would be up to Washington St and Oregon St to make sure they do.

I am certainly speculating - as I don't think there has been much (anything) written on how this all will work?  I do know for a fact now that the existing 12 PAC schools voted as the PAC - because they were part of that conference when the lawsuit was filed (or settled).  Same with Texas and Oklahoma in the B12.

As I understand - the settlement calls for over $2B in damages to be paid by the NCAA.  The NCAA is going to pass on over $1B to the conferences over the next 10 years via revenue reductions.  Based on the information I have found - the PAC will be on the hook for ~ $10.7m in NCAA revenue reductions for each of the next 10 years.  I just don't know how Washington State and Oregon State could possibly be expected to absorb this?  Not to mention - if the PAC was to go away - the NCAA would have to make up $110m somewhere else.

But like you said - currently the NCAA gives money to the conferences (based on points and such) that then gets distributed to the schools.  Since the NCAA doesn't directly give money to schools, how would they be able to deduct from schools?

My guess - the calculation for the conference revenue deduction will be based on the per school old conference deduction pooled into the new conference deduction.  Texas and Oklahoma will carryover ~ $800K per from the B12 to the SEC to be added to the existing 14 schools at $900K per school (old conference calculation) - so that the SEC in total will have ~ 14.2m deducted each year from their NCAA revenue to be distributed by the conference as they wish.  This is $1.6m more than what the SEC is currently on the hook for - since they just added a couple schools.  This is the only way I can think of that makes any sense on how this penalty payout could happen.  

Big 12 example.  They are on the hook for ~ $11M per year in revenue reductions.  Texas and Oklahoma will take $1.6M with them to the SEC and the 4 PAC schools will add about $3.6m.  So by going from 14 to 16 schools - the B12 will owe $13m per year (instead of $11m if the conference had stayed put).  

Big Ten:  They are estimated to be on the hook for $16.5m per year.  They will then get $3.6m combined for Washington, Oregon, USC, and UCLA joining the conference for a total estimated reduction of $20.1m per year.

No idea how the ACC would work with Notre Dame being such an outlier?  The ACC and Big 10 have overall bigger hits than any other conference - as this was based on prior year credits and they are getting dinged for being better Men's basketball conferences over the last 10 years.  West Coast and particularly the Big East get the worst of this - along with Oregon St. and Washington St.

[bluepenquin]

By my rough estimate - P5 schools will lose about $1m per year in NCAA revenue reductions. The very end of this article estimates the loss by conference in this settlement being done via NCAA revenue reductions. This is on top of what they will have added to their expenses in the form of student player payments - estimated to be around $20m per year for p5 schools. So, the NCAA lawsuit penalty payment is a very small portion of what this will end up costing Universities going forward.


www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/college-athletes-on-brink-of-getting-2-8-billion-revenue-sharing-model-in-house-v-ncaa-settlement/

[mplsgopher]

[mplsgopher]

Regarding NCAA units paid to confs to distribute March Madness money: yes, one unit is one unit of money regardless how many teams are in the conf. Because they figure that two confs of equal quality per team will earn the same average units *per team*. So the conf with twice as many members is expected to earn twice as many units.

I believe it is one unit for each win in the round of 64 onward? Or something like that. Over a rolling six year period.

[mplsgopher]

May 23, 2024 13:44:37 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

May 23, 2024 13:22:10 GMT -5 n00b said:

I just think that isn't how these NCAA distributions work. They distribute to conferences and number of members doesn't matter. One tournament unit to the 8-team Ivy League is the same amount as one tournament unit to the 13-team MAAC. And thus 20 tournament units to the 18-member Big Ten will be the same amount as 20 tournament units to the 2-member Pac-12.

The NCAA could change that, but it would be up to Washington St and Oregon St to make sure they do.

I am certainly speculating - as I don't think there has been much (anything) written on how this all will work?  I do know for a fact now that the existing 12 PAC schools voted as the PAC - because they were part of that conference when the lawsuit was filed (or settled).  Same with Texas and Oklahoma in the B12.

As I understand - the settlement calls for over $2B in damages to be paid by the NCAA.  The NCAA is going to pass on over $1B to the conferences over the next 10 years via revenue reductions.  Based on the information I have found - the PAC will be on the hook for ~ $10.7m in NCAA revenue reductions for each of the next 10 years.  I just don't know how Washington State and Oregon State could possibly be expected to absorb this?  Not to mention - if the PAC was to go away - the NCAA would have to make up $110m somewhere else.

But like you said - currently the NCAA gives money to the conferences (based on points and such) that then gets distributed to the schools.  Since the NCAA doesn't directly give money to schools, how would they be able to deduct from schools?

My guess - the calculation for the conference revenue deduction will be based on the per school old conference deduction pooled into the new conference deduction.  Texas and Oklahoma will carryover ~ $800K per from the B12 to the SEC to be added to the existing 14 schools at $900K per school (old conference calculation) - so that the SEC in total will have ~ 14.2m deducted each year from their NCAA revenue to be distributed by the conference as they wish.  This is $1.6m more than what the SEC is currently on the hook for - since they just added a couple schools.  This is the only way I can think of that makes any sense on how this penalty payout could happen.  

Big 12 example.  They are on the hook for ~ $11M per year in revenue reductions.  Texas and Oklahoma will take $1.6M with them to the SEC and the 4 PAC schools will add about $3.6m.  So by going from 14 to 16 schools - the B12 will owe $13m per year (instead of $11m if the conference had stayed put).  

Big Ten:  They are estimated to be on the hook for $16.5m per year.  They will then get $3.6m combined for Washington, Oregon, USC, and UCLA joining the conference for a total estimated reduction of $20.1m per year.

No idea how the ACC would work with Notre Dame being such an outlier?  The ACC and Big 10 have overall bigger hits than any other conference - as this was based on prior year credits and they are getting dinged for being better Men's basketball conferences over the last 10 years.  West Coast and particularly the Big East get the worst of this - along with Oregon St. and Washington St.

The thing to keep in mind is that this settlement covers damages incurred in *the past*. So the payments should be based on the previous configurations, and then travel with the schools to their new homes.

As for the NCAA’s bill, maybe the fairest way to pay for it is to just decrease the monetary value of each unit? So WSU and OSU still will be earning units from 12 schools for a few years, but at some percentage less value?

[n00b]

May 23, 2024 14:01:49 GMT -5 mplsgopher said:

May 23, 2024 13:44:37 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

I am certainly speculating - as I don't think there has been much (anything) written on how this all will work?  I do know for a fact now that the existing 12 PAC schools voted as the PAC - because they were part of that conference when the lawsuit was filed (or settled).  Same with Texas and Oklahoma in the B12.

As I understand - the settlement calls for over $2B in damages to be paid by the NCAA.  The NCAA is going to pass on over $1B to the conferences over the next 10 years via revenue reductions.  Based on the information I have found - the PAC will be on the hook for ~ $10.7m in NCAA revenue reductions for each of the next 10 years.  I just don't know how Washington State and Oregon State could possibly be expected to absorb this?  Not to mention - if the PAC was to go away - the NCAA would have to make up $110m somewhere else.

But like you said - currently the NCAA gives money to the conferences (based on points and such) that then gets distributed to the schools.  Since the NCAA doesn't directly give money to schools, how would they be able to deduct from schools?

My guess - the calculation for the conference revenue deduction will be based on the per school old conference deduction pooled into the new conference deduction.  Texas and Oklahoma will carryover ~ $800K per from the B12 to the SEC to be added to the existing 14 schools at $900K per school (old conference calculation) - so that the SEC in total will have ~ 14.2m deducted each year from their NCAA revenue to be distributed by the conference as they wish.  This is $1.6m more than what the SEC is currently on the hook for - since they just added a couple schools.  This is the only way I can think of that makes any sense on how this penalty payout could happen.  

Big 12 example.  They are on the hook for ~ $11M per year in revenue reductions.  Texas and Oklahoma will take $1.6M with them to the SEC and the 4 PAC schools will add about $3.6m.  So by going from 14 to 16 schools - the B12 will owe $13m per year (instead of $11m if the conference had stayed put).  

Big Ten:  They are estimated to be on the hook for $16.5m per year.  They will then get $3.6m combined for Washington, Oregon, USC, and UCLA joining the conference for a total estimated reduction of $20.1m per year.

No idea how the ACC would work with Notre Dame being such an outlier?  The ACC and Big 10 have overall bigger hits than any other conference - as this was based on prior year credits and they are getting dinged for being better Men's basketball conferences over the last 10 years.  West Coast and particularly the Big East get the worst of this - along with Oregon St. and Washington St.

The thing to keep in mind is that this settlement covers damages incurred in *the past*. So the payments should be based on the previous configurations, and then travel with the schools to their new homes.

As for the NCAA’s bill, maybe the fairest way to pay for it is to just decrease the monetary value of each unit? So WSU and OSU still will be earning units from 12 schools for a few years, but at some percentage less value?

But the NCAA doesn't seem to be trying to determine which schools had athletes impacted the most. That's the non-football schools are very unhappy with this settlement deal. The Autonomy Conferences had the athletes that lost out on the vast majority of possible NIL dollars. But 60% of the funding from this settlement will come from outside of the autonomy conferences.

[n00b]

May 23, 2024 13:44:37 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

As I understand - the settlement calls for over $2B in damages to be paid by the NCAA.  The NCAA is going to pass on over $1B to the conferences over the next 10 years via revenue reductions.  Based on the information I have found - the PAC will be on the hook for ~ $10.7m in NCAA revenue reductions for each of the next 10 years.  I just don't know how Washington State and Oregon State could possibly be expected to absorb this?  Not to mention - if the PAC was to go away - the NCAA would have to make up $110m somewhere else.

But like you said - currently the NCAA gives money to the conferences (based on points and such) that then gets distributed to the schools.  Since the NCAA doesn't directly give money to schools, how would they be able to deduct from schools?

Remember, no school will be making any sort of payment. They will just get reduced payouts from the NCAA.

So Washington State and Oregon State were about to get an entire 12-team conference worth of NCAA men's basketball tournament unit payouts that they could only split between the two of them instead of split 12 ways if the conference had survived. They'll still be getting more than they really deserve when you take out the settlement money, but less than they could have.

[mikegarrison]

May 23, 2024 9:54:05 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

May 23, 2024 9:14:24 GMT -5 mikegarrison said:

PAC-12? Like what, WSU and OSU?

I think these are being voted on with current 2023/24 conference memberships.  Oklahoma and Texas chose to abstain with the B12 vote - which I don't think included AZ/ASU/COL/UTA.  So - I am thinking this is for the current 12 PAC schools?

I thought it was established in court that only WSU and OSU get to decide things for the PAC-12 now. But I'm not sure.

[bluepenquin]

May 23, 2024 14:40:08 GMT -5 n00b said:

May 23, 2024 13:44:37 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

As I understand - the settlement calls for over $2B in damages to be paid by the NCAA.  The NCAA is going to pass on over $1B to the conferences over the next 10 years via revenue reductions.  Based on the information I have found - the PAC will be on the hook for ~ $10.7m in NCAA revenue reductions for each of the next 10 years.  I just don't know how Washington State and Oregon State could possibly be expected to absorb this?  Not to mention - if the PAC was to go away - the NCAA would have to make up $110m somewhere else.

But like you said - currently the NCAA gives money to the conferences (based on points and such) that then gets distributed to the schools.  Since the NCAA doesn't directly give money to schools, how would they be able to deduct from schools?

Remember, no school will be making any sort of payment. They will just get reduced payouts from the NCAA.

So Washington State and Oregon State were about to get an entire 12-team conference worth of NCAA men's basketball tournament unit payouts that they could only split between the two of them instead of split 12 ways if the conference had survived. They'll still be getting more than they really deserve when you take out the settlement money, but less than they could have.

Correct on the first part - they are revenue reductions not payments made by the conferences or schools.

As to the 2nd part - I think these are independent.  How the PAC 12 distributes the 2023-24 revenue is their business.  I guess in this case - Oregon State and Washington State gets all of it.  The revenue reductions are different - this is going to be some calculation the NCAA will use in calculating how much money will be deducted from each conference when paying out at the end of the fiscal year.  I think this will start with the 2024-25 year and not this July.

And I believe that they will make this calculation based on how the conferences existed in 2023-24 based on the prior X number of years of data - then will adjust the reductions to each conference based on school changes for that year.  If 4 years from now the Big 12 or ACC no longer exist - that money for revenue reductions will follow to the new conference that University goes into.  Otherwise - there is no guarantee (and a strong likelihood) that the NCAA is going to fall well short of the money they will need to cover the penalties negotiated in this agreement.  

Edit: if you are saying that it isn't that bad for the 2 left in the PAC because they still get to split the total this year - then yes that is better than it could have been - that is still independent of the revenue reductions from this settlement.