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Post by spikerthemovie on Nov 8, 2006 0:23:21 GMT -5
The other thing that seems to be going on is that the AVCA poll voters have gotten to a poll they kinda believe in, apparently. It took six or seven weeks of haywire polls to get an order that seemed to make sense -- that probably reflected roughly where the top teams should find themselves in the NCAA tournament -- and now the voters have replaced the moving-everyone-around-like-crazy weirdness with keeping-teams-in-their-spots-even-if-they-seem-like-they-should-move weirdness. Let's say they've got 22 of the 25 teams about where they should be -- that's a pretty good record. And I can't believe I'm defending the AVCA poll.
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Post by SaltNPepper on Nov 8, 2006 5:58:44 GMT -5
Oregon and Cal are the only two teams seriously misranked in this poll. Seriously misranked compared to what? To our perception of a "correct" ranking? I thought I'd look at comparing AVCA to Pablo and look for teams that were ranked quite a bit different from a percentage standpoint. I've listed below those that were + or - 50% or more different between them. While I'm not saying that Pablo is perfect either, I think it can give us an objective look at who might be some of the best candidates for being "seriously misranked" in the AVCA poll. Team | AVCA | Pablo | Difference | Ave. Rank | % Difference | LSU | 11 | 26 | 15 | 18.5 | 81.1% | Wisconsin | 10 | 5 | -5 | 7.5 | -66.7% | Iowa State | 29 | 14.5 | -14.5 | 21.75 | -66.7% | Utah | 9 | 17 | 8 | 13 | 61.5% | Oregon | 24 | 13 | -11 | 18.5 | -59.5% | BYU | 21 | 37 | 16 | 29 | 55.2% | USC | 6 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 50.0% | LBSU | 30 | 18 | -12 | 24 | -50.0% |
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Post by Keystonekid on Nov 8, 2006 7:24:31 GMT -5
Oregon's problem is that they started really far off of the AVCA radar (which shouldn't matter) All of their early wins only got them to get people to take a look at them. Had they started as a "teams receiving votes" I think they would be pretty high.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 8, 2006 11:00:16 GMT -5
The PROBLEM is that Oregon has demonstrated they are a better volleyball team than California -- and demostrated it ON THE COURT. There is no way for the voters to justify ranking Cal ahead of the Ducks, let alone 12 spots ahead.
This is not theoretical. It's not someone's opinion. Oregon is 7-5 in the Pac10 while Cal is 6-6. Oregon beat Cal AT Cal. Neither team has a bad loss -- except, according to the ranking's, Cal's loss to Oregon. Best wins for Cal are CSU and Pepperdine. Best wins for Oregon are LBSU and Cal.
This is a no brainer. Either Cal is over-ranked or Oregon is under-ranked (or both).
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Post by vbcrazy on Nov 8, 2006 11:05:25 GMT -5
Let's play "what if?" What if Cal beats Oregon next week?
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Post by Deleted on Nov 8, 2006 11:10:50 GMT -5
Aha! Exactly. Does Oregon then get hammered in the poll? Would that be fair? Those bottom 5 teams are really being pushed by St. Johns and Pepperdine.
If Oregon wins, will they still be below Cal? Most likely. That ain't right.
How about Missouri? From #12 to 25 in 3 weeks!
#11-18 is really tight, too.
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Post by long distance on Nov 8, 2006 11:17:21 GMT -5
Oregon and Cal are the only two teams seriously misranked in this poll. Seriously misranked compared to what? To our perception of a "correct" ranking? I thought I'd look at comparing AVCA to Pablo and look for teams that were ranked quite a bit different from a percentage standpoint. I've listed below those that were + or - 50% or more different between them. While I'm not saying that Pablo is perfect either, I think it can give us an objective look at who might be some of the best candidates for being "seriously misranked" in the AVCA poll. Team | AVCA | Pablo | Difference | Ave. Rank | % Difference | LSU | 11 | 26 | 15 | 18.5 | 81.1% | Wisconsin | 10 | 5 | -5 | 7.5 | -66.7% | Iowa State | 29 | 14.5 | -14.5 | 21.75 | -66.7% | Utah | 9 | 17 | 8 | 13 | 61.5% | Oregon | 24 | 13 | -11 | 18.5 | -59.5% | BYU | 21 | 37 | 16 | 29 | 55.2% | USC | 6 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 50.0% | LBSU | 30 | 18 | -12 | 24 | -50.0% |
These are the NCAA's RPI for each of these teams. LSU 11 Wisconsin 18 Iowa State 44 Utah 20 Oregon 23 BYU 22 USC 6 LBSU 37 These seem to be more in line with the AVCA poll. You don't see as big of a differential with the exception of Iowa State and Utah.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 8, 2006 11:24:19 GMT -5
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Post by Deleted on Nov 8, 2006 11:25:22 GMT -5
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Post by Keystonekid on Nov 8, 2006 12:14:51 GMT -5
Ruffda is right about Cal, emotional, but right nonetheless.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 8, 2006 12:38:26 GMT -5
Not that emotional, dammit! I LIKE Cal. I like Cal, a lot. I just think the Oregon/Cal disparity in this poll does not reflect well on the pollsters. It makes no sense. And the SIMPLE solution is to drop Cal down to #16-20 or so. But nooooooooooo. Not a Pac10 team...
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Post by Keystonekid on Nov 8, 2006 12:53:00 GMT -5
Nice John Belushi reference.
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Post by BearClause on Nov 8, 2006 13:09:35 GMT -5
And the SIMPLE solution is to drop Cal down to #16-20 or so. But nooooooooooo. Not a Pac10 team... They lost voter points. Strangely enough, Minnesota managed to lose more points which resulted in that swap in position. Which gets to stuff like the difference between absolute points and relative position. I remember going back to the BCS in 2004, where Cal and Texas were separated by a small point margin in the AP poll. The contribution to the overall BCS standings was directly proportional to the point total for the AP and coaches polls, but was a normalized ordinal system for the contributions from the computer rankings. A normalized ordinal system for all three contributions would have meant me walking from Colorado Blvd to the Rose Bowl on New Years Day 2005. Sigh.
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Post by Ye Olde Dawg on Nov 8, 2006 14:43:44 GMT -5
The PROBLEM is that Oregon has demonstrated they are a better volleyball team than California -- and demostrated it ON THE COURT. There is no way for the voters to justify ranking Cal ahead of the Ducks, let alone 12 spots ahead. .... The other possibility is that the AVCA voters are discounting Oregon's win as a one-time thing. That's fair; anything can happen in one match on a volleyball court. Mind you it doesn't justify the gap between Cal and Oregon, but it provides at least a little rationale. ... which will evaporate if Oregon beats Cal again.
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