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Post by bearwatch on Nov 15, 2006 21:45:35 GMT -5
;D
Quick 3 game win 30-15, 30-18, 30-24.
Nice win at home for the Bears.
Next is Nebraska, Colorado and Oklahoma.
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Post by IdahoBoy on Nov 15, 2006 21:47:09 GMT -5
Tough remaining 3-matches for Baylor. Nice win (actually, domination) for them.
What is their overall record and conference record now?
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Post by bearwatch on Nov 15, 2006 22:02:05 GMT -5
18-12 overall, 6-11 in Big XII
I bet 2 wins gets them in. Large task but you never know.
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Post by IdahoBoy on Nov 15, 2006 22:04:46 GMT -5
Because I'm swamped with coding/posting another game report can you tell me who Baylor has defeated? Tell me who their bad losses are to?
There is the potential for them to get in with 1 win... depending on that information.
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Post by bearwatch on Nov 15, 2006 22:12:32 GMT -5
Good wins: Missouri (#16), K-State (#24), A&M on the road, SFA (25-1), 5 game loss at Texas.
Bad Losses: at Kansas, at K-State, A&M at home.
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Post by baldyballer on Nov 16, 2006 0:22:39 GMT -5
When a team like Baylor only loses to CAL and Big 12 teams all season, I think they have beaten who they were suppose to and pulled some upsets. They are also proving that their young core and team is getting better and hot when it counts- the end of the season.
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Post by IdahoBoy on Nov 16, 2006 0:24:48 GMT -5
Good wins: Missouri (#16), K-State (#24), A&M on the road, SFA (25-1), 5 game loss at Texas. Bad Losses: at Kansas, at K-State, A&M at home. Thanks, I vaguely remember these, but wanted to be sure. I think that winning just one more and they have a good argument. Winning 2... buy a ticket to someplace to see postseason play. |
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Post by baldyballer on Nov 16, 2006 0:34:08 GMT -5
I agree- if the committee is looking for a team that is hot at the right time and could pull some upsets, Baylor is it!
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Post by OverAndUnder on Nov 16, 2006 9:24:05 GMT -5
You guys are so good. Do you have meetings to coordinate your VT marketing strategy each morning before logging in? ;D
But yes, two wins and you're definitely in. A win over Nebraska definitely gets you in. A strong win over Oklahoma probably gets you in. A weak win over Colorado may not be enough by itself.
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Post by bearwatch on Nov 16, 2006 11:03:54 GMT -5
Hey, I'm too cool to be seen with a Bald guy and a boy from Idaho:)
Anyway, I think you have it right OverUnder with the scenarios of the last 3 matches for Baylor. They way they played last night, they could beat most teams. The freshmen OH Katie Sanders was cranking a crosscourt hit inside the 5 foot line at will. Something else not talked about is that this team lost 5 senior starters from last year and what this young group has done has been pretty great. It's been a roller coaster ride but they are climbing at the end baby!!
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Post by SaltNPepper on Nov 16, 2006 11:10:57 GMT -5
First of all, I hope Baylor does get in.
Even with two wins I don't see them as a lock. The wins over KSU and TAMU are not tournament teams this year, so even though those programs have recent tradition in the tournamnet, I'd hardly call them "good" wins this year - plus they only split with them, so that really does not show much to the selection committe. If they beat both Colorado and Oklahoma (or Nebraska), that would give them 3 wins over other Big 12 tournament teams. But they'd still be 8-12 and 7th place in the conference without beating any "name" schools in their non-conference schedule. It will depend I think on just how many other decent bubble teams are out there - Baylor needs to be rooting for most of the mid-major's regular season winners to win there conference championship and so that few if any of them take an extra at-large bid. This idea of the selection committee dropping down to a 7-13 or 8-12 team from a major conference seems to be more of the exception rather than the rule for past tournaments - or maybe I'm wrong.
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Post by SaltNPepper on Nov 16, 2006 12:04:56 GMT -5
Another way of looking at Baylor's chances of getting an at large bid in the Tournament is to try to figure out how many teams from the Big 12 will get in. I would think that 5 is a lock already and that unless Missouri finishes really flat, they should get in too. For Baylor to make it will probably means that the Big 12 Conference would have 7 teams make it. It just so happens that at the Big 12 website www.big12sports.com/sports/w-volley/big12-w-volley-body.htmlthey currently have a poll where you can guess the number of teams that will get in - anywhere from 1 to 8. I understand that there will be a scattering of vote from people that have no idea, but I find the current results interestings. Leading is 5 teams with about 32%, then 6 teams with about 31, followed by 4 at 16%, 3 at 8% and 7 at 7%. Doesn't seem like near the optimism in that poll as shown by fans on this board. |
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Post by FreeBall on Nov 16, 2006 12:25:24 GMT -5
I think the Big 12 will get six teams into the tournament, with Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas, Iowa State and Colorado having done enough to lock up bids at this point. That means the sixth spot comes down to either Baylor or Missouri.
Let's look at a number of factors regarding the results of these two teams so far this season:
Overall Record: Missouri is 15-11 and Baylor is 18-12.
Conference Record: Missouri is 9-8 and Baylor is 6-11.
Last 10 Matches: Missouri is 3-7 and Baylor is 5-5.
Missouri's Remaining Schedule: @ Kansas, @ TAMU, Texas Tech
Baylor's Remaining Schedule: @ Nebraska, @ Colorado, Oklahoma
Missouri's Significant Losses: Lost @ Baylor (3-2). None of the other losses would be considered "bad" losses.
Baylor's Significant Losses: Lost @ Missouri (3-1). Other "bad" losses are @ Kansas (3-0) and @ Kansas State (3-0).
Missouri's Significant Wins: Besides the win over Baylor, Missouri has "good" wins over Texas, Colorado, Texas A&M and @ Iowa State.
Baylor's Significant Wins: Besides the win over Missouri, Baylor has "good" wins @ Stephen F. Austin and @ Texas A&M.
Pablo Rankings: Missouri is at 30 and Baylor is at 52.
RKPI Rankings: Missouri is at 33 and Baylor is at 81.
As I look at all of these factors, the only one that really seems to favor Baylor is the trend over the past 10 matches. However, when you look at the remaining schedule of each team, this may even out somewhat.
Missouri will be favored in all three of their matches and if they win all three, they would finish the season with a 5-5 trend. On the other hand, Baylor will be the underdog in all three of their matches and if they lose all three, they would also finish with a 5-5 trend. One win would give them a 6-4 trend and two wins would give them a 7-3 trend.
Three wins by Missouri would also give them an overall record of 18-11 and a Big 12 record of 12-8.
If Baylor wins one of their remaining matches, they would finish with an overall record of 19-14 and a Big 12 record of 7-13. With wins in two of the remaining matches, these records would be 20-13 and 8-12.
If Missouri wins all of their remaining matches (likely in my opinion) and Baylor wins two of their remaining matches (unlikely in my opinion), I don't see the Bears making the NCAA field ahead of Missouri. In my opinion this should put Missouri in the field as the sixth Big 12 team, but it is also possible that the Big 12 would only get five bids with both Missouri and Baylor being left out.
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Post by baldyballer on Nov 16, 2006 12:35:15 GMT -5
Why is a Missouri and a Nebraska fan against seeing Baylor in? I would think SaltNPepper and freeball would be rooting for more Big 12 teams to make it because they understand how tough this conference is!!! Instead of comparing against one another we should be comparing vs the PAC 10 and Big 10. I think both Missouri and Baylor should get in- just like the 7 last year that made it (see how its done). Oh and one more thing to Bearwatch- bald is beautiful baby!
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Post by vbfanatic on Nov 16, 2006 12:37:36 GMT -5
Taking an average of the Pablo rankings from the pre-season leads me to believe they will only take 6 and Baylor will be left out.
Here is a summary of the Big 12
Texas 23.8 (avg pablo ranking of pre-season opponents)
Nebraska 30
Texas A&M 94.1
Colorado 97.1
Missouri 111.6
K-State 115.7
Iowa St. 124
Oklahoma 126.2
Baylor 139.5
Tech 157.7
Kansas 162.8
Even if Baylor wins 1 or 2 their 19 or 20 wins would be based upon the 9th toughest pre-season schedule in the Big 12. There are no significant wins in the pre-season and beating A&M, Kansas and K-State (who they just lost 0-3 to at KSU...significant loss) are not significant wins in conference. The way I see it 6 teams have clearly separated themselves with a potential finish of:
Nebraska 19-1
Oklahoma 17-3
Texas 16-4
Iowa State 12-8
Colorado 12-8
Missouri 12-8
If Baylor wins 2 at the most and ends up 8-12 this combined with their lack of pre-season strength, they will not go... but with the committee you never know...keep your fingers crossed Bearwatch
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